WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Jabbz]

Rowain, is your vote on Omar for pressure, or do you really have a case on him?

[Gaspar]

I disagree with you re: Thrawn's value and think it's a wolf-perspective to say otherwise. Town's job is to find scum. With hindsight one scum might be more valuable than another due to powers but town has no way to know that. Catching Thrawn was exactly what town is supposed to do - use reads to identify a threat to the town and remove it. If Thrawn's ability had been that his vote didn't count and he self-destructed at the end of Day 1 it would still be a good scumhunting result for the town.

Its as valuable to the town to lynch him, but it doesn't tell us anything about the voter's alignment, since we have every reason to believe the scum didn't know who he is. Knowing who the scum are is sort of the crux of vote analysis. Sure, if we're using other tools like tone analysis and such, its relevant. Or if we want to put feathers in caps to look good in spreadsheets. But for actually catching scum, if the scum don't know the person is scum, it doesn't tell us anything.

[sunrise089]

Gaspar, I get what you’re saying and I half agree with you. But don’t you think finding an unknown scum reflects on the finders, versus them finding a town mislynch? Scum would be happy with any mislynch and presumably thought Thrawn was one, so I get why they’d be okay going along with it, but I don’t think a random scum would be as likely to make a good case against Thrawn as a motivated random town. Just my opinion though.

Also maybe tone down the shot-taking about my spreadsheet. You and I both know I’m not using it as a primary driver of anything.

[sunrise089]

Gaspar I know you don’t read every post but could you please look at my 1,769 and 1,767 above. Even if you think I’m scum for your own reasons I’d be grateful for more eyes on this issue since I think it illuminated the validity, or lack thereof, of Meiz’s initial case on me.

[Gaspar]

Ok, so I'm tunneled a bit on sunrise for reasons stated upthread, but I do want to look at some other candidates just to sort of make sure I'm not missing something.

Focusing on Meiz voters first...

Jabbz

Votes:
Jabbz has been a bit of cipher to me this game. The page tells me he has 71 votes but I don't have a lot of recollection of any of them. He was on Commodore D1 but it was a park. He was in the "already decided" pile-on on Commodore on D2 with GES and Kaiser. (Technically Rowain as well, though Rowain had telegraphed all day that he was going to end on Commodore.) D3 he was on Lewwyn. And D4 he was all in on the Meiz uber-wolf theory. I guess I don't see a lot of votes which give him credit here.

Role-claim:
Probably telling the truth. I think there's a lot in the one of Jabbz/GES is scum argument because it seems weird for town to have a Tracker, Watcher, Beholder and Voyeur. That's a lot of mediocre tracking roles.

Vibe:
Mostly feels adrift villager. Could be lurker scum.

Kaiser

Votes:
Kaiser was on Thrawn. I don't remember much about his day one other than him getting a lot of town cred for WoT. Day 2 a meaningless pile on vote on Commodore. D3 part of the late Lewwyn push to lynch me. D4 was one of the captains of the scum Meiz train. So not a lot of credit in there.

Role-claim:
I still don't buy it even if everyone else does. Sorry, not sorry.

Vibe:
Has felt scummy all game to me. I just keep getting Roland vibes from him.

Alhambram

Votes:
Alhambram has sort of grown in stature as the game's gone on. Credit to him there. D1 the scummy/noobish no lynch. D2 was on Commodore early. D3 on Lewwyn. D4 on the Uberwolf Meiz theory. Some credit for the Commodore lynch, most of which is eliminated by the other votes.

Role-claim:
Confirmed. Doesn't tell us anything about alignment, but confirmed.

Vibe:
Reads mostly like a villager to me. I was very meh on him early but as time goes on I just keep reading town from him.

So basically I think if I ignore meta stuff I like Kaiser most of this group. Will review the Bob voters later.

[Gaspar]

Gaspar I know you don’t read every post but could you please look at my 1,769 and 1,767 above. Even if you think I’m scum for your own reasons I’d be grateful for more eyes on this issue since I think it illuminated the validity, or lack thereof, of Meiz’s initial case on me.

I'll try and find a hot minute to re-read the end of day 3. I do know that I was thinking the exact same thing as Meiz before I read it. But if you are town, I at least owe you the courtesy of the re-read if its what I want to hang you for.

[Gaspar]

Gaspar I know you don’t read every post but could you please look at my 1,769 and 1,767 above. Even if you think I’m scum for your own reasons I’d be grateful for more eyes on this issue since I think it illuminated the validity, or lack thereof, of Meiz’s initial case on me.

I'll try and find a hot minute to re-read the end of day 3.  I do know that I was thinking the exact same thing as Meiz before I read it.  But if you are town, I at least owe you the courtesy of the re-read if its what I want to hang you for.

Day 4, not day 3.

[Jabbz]

I really hate making decisions on incomplete information. Still it's important I make arguments, even bad ones, so at least you all have something to read me by. So here are my limited reads.

Meiz.
I want to say he is scummy, but I can't.
I still feel scum coming from you, but you brought up a good question I was unable to answer, though that could be just the headache talking. I can't picture how you could possibly be scum and benefit from my presumed scenario. I don't know if everyone claimed yet, but so far we haven't seen a town role taker, and a town mailman seems a weird role. If you're town thats the only way I can see your abilities being gone if you're scum. If you're scum and its a ruse, I honestly cant make an argument for what you gain by doing so.

GES
Townish lean to neutral.

I know that I am town, and I saw the results of his actions on night 3. There have been good arguments made that he could potentially be scum, but I'm not persuaded much. Still there is a question, so I can't say clear town.

Rowain.
Solid town lean.
If you are scum I hope you bite into a really nasty tasting bit of steak sometime in the next year. You would deserve it.
I can't shake the feeling I'm being played by Rowain, but his play is solid. He pushes, and often the right people. Seems to genuinely scumhunt. He even manages that while still posting more than anyone but Meiz.

Alhambram.
Slight town lean.
I really like the feel of his responses to being outed by sunrise. They came across as genuinely bothered, but he didn't get defensive the way I would expect scum to. That and breaking the agreement was scummy as well, and I have trouble picturing both them as scum neighbors.

Gaspar
I just don't have an opinion formed other than the fact that I feel he is doing an amazing job channeling my favorite Dr.

Kaiser
Slight scum lean.
The bit at the end of night bothers me more as other people bring up stuff I hadn't thought about. The primary problem I think I have at this point is the timing, which has been pointed out by others. You posted that too late if your intent was to deceive. It makes that deception start to look really bad. I have trouble seeing what you gain out of doing so however, so the lean stays small.

sunrise
Slight scum lean
As I said a day or two ago, I really got bad vibes off your neighbor reveal. I would like to have read through all of your posts today, but your posting style makes my eyes work way too hard. Not your fault though, so the lean stays small.

I believe that's all thats left of our merry crew. While weak, my readings would put sunrise and kaiser on my ok to lynch list. There is currently a solid train going on sunrise, 3 sunrise, 1 gaspar, 1 omar, and a part of me wants to pop in on him just for solidarity, but I'm not sure about two people that are on him at this time, so it makes me leery.

For the time being, I'm going to pop my vote on Kaiser to see if i can get help with applying some pressure there, and get something to either change my mind or confirm it. I'll be here for EOD tomorrow, and I'm trying to stay up with posts for the next 2h before bed, but no promises.

[sunrise089]

Gaspar I know you don’t read every post but could you please look at my 1,769 and 1,767 above. Even if you think I’m scum for your own reasons I’d be grateful for more eyes on this issue since I think it illuminated the validity, or lack thereof, of Meiz’s initial case on me.

I'll try and find a hot minute to re-read the end of day 3.  I do know that I was thinking the exact same thing as Meiz before I read it.  But if you are town, I at least owe you the courtesy of the re-read if its what I want to hang you for.

Gaspar, please feel free to re-read whatever you'd like, but 1,767 + 1,769 refer to me at the end of Day 4. Meiz started his suspicion on me with a very specific claim - that I wouldn't vote him but would vote Bob late making Meiz lose a 5-5 tie. He felt I was sandbagging to do that and sees all my end of day actions around that read. I'm claiming in the two aforementioned posts that the voting totals don't actually let that happen - that a 4-4-2 vote which became a 5-3-2 and then a 5-3-1-1 never even presented me with the opportunity to do the very thing Meiz believes I was planning.

[sunrise089]

Lol Gaspar sorry I posted before I saw your next post. Thank you.