WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[sunrise089]

One final thing Gaspar since you say you were thinking the same thing as Meiz - I actually agree that an obvious scum play to force a mislynch, especially if I'm scum and paired with someone like you with good cover, would be for me to last-second vote Meiz knowing I'd probably get lynched the next day. But Meiz has been insistent, including in our exchange last night, that I'd have not been able to get away with voting for him directly and my play was to vote late on Bob.

If you're being really generous with your re-read please consider that as I claim there were plenty of opportunities yesterday for scum me to decide I was wrong on Meiz and just vote for him early without any effective-but-suicidal last-second gambits.

[sunrise089]

sunrise
Slight scum lean
As I said a day or two ago, I really got bad vibes off your neighbor reveal. I would like to have read through all of your posts today, but your posting style makes my eyes work way too hard. Not your fault though, so the lean stays small.

Thanks Jabbz. While I'd encourage you to read everything, 1,724 and 1,728 have a lot of sarcasm built in and are somewhat skippable. 1,728 especially can be summarized in what to me is a true but simple point: other players are skating by without much investigation because they're posting stuff that looks like high-content but isn't.

If you can only read two things I'd suggest 1,763 which summarizes my voting actions from my perspective, and 1,769 which summarizes why I don't think Meiz's attack on my end of Day 4 makes logical sense.

[Jabbz]

Thanks Jabbz. While I'd encourage you to read everything, 1,724 and 1,728 have a lot of sarcasm built in and are somewhat skippable. 1,728 especially can be summarized in what to me is a true but simple point: other players are skating by without much investigation because they're posting stuff that looks like high-content but isn't.

If you can only read two things I'd suggest 1,763 which summarizes my voting actions from my perspective, and 1,769 which summarizes why I don't think Meiz's attack on my end of Day 4 makes logical sense.

Thing is I'm not looking at meiz's commentary when I'm giving you that lean, so his stuff wouldn't be cogent anyway.

[sunrise089]

Thanks Jabbz. While I'd encourage you to read everything, 1,724 and 1,728 have a lot of sarcasm built in and are somewhat skippable. 1,728 especially can be summarized in what to me is a true but simple point: other players are skating by without much investigation because they're posting stuff that looks like high-content but isn't.

If you can only read two things I'd suggest 1,763 which summarizes my voting actions from my perspective, and 1,769 which summarizes why I don't think Meiz's attack on my end of Day 4 makes logical sense.

Thing is I'm not looking at meiz's commentary when I'm giving you that lean, so his stuff wouldn't be cogent anyway.

Yes, but it should perhaps inform your lean on Meiz Also, 1,763 isn't related to the main thrust of the Meiz attack.

[Gaspar]

OK, EOD4...

At the time Meiz votes Bob, lynch total is:

Meiz 5 - pindicator, Jabbz, Kaiser, Alhambram, Rowain
Kaiser 4 - Bobchillingworth, Gaspar, GES, sunrise
Bob - 1 - Meiz

Rowain and I jump on at the same time:

Meiz 4 - pindicator, Jabbz, Kaiser, Alhambram
Kaiser 3 - Bobchillingworth, GES, sunrise
Bob - 3 - Meiz, Rowain, Gaspar

Half hour later, GES jumps on:

Meiz 4 - pindicator, Jabbz, Kaiser, Alhambram
Bob - 4 - Meiz, Rowain, Gaspar, GES
Kaiser - 2 - Bobchillingworth, sunrise

At this point, Meiz hangs because he hit 4 first.

An hour and half and a bit of chatter later, sunrise pops in. At this point, if he does nothing, Meiz hangs. If he votes Meiz, Meiz hangs. If he votes Bob, Bob hangs.

sunrise's first post is not germane to the current situation, which with 41 minutes to deadline the only thing that matters is if we lynch Meiz or Bob. He's likely catching up in the thread at this point. This post is about how he didn't switch to me. He posts again 7 minutes later about Kaiser. One minute later, pindicator jumps in and votes Bob, Meiz crossposts (same timestamp on both pindicator and Meiz posts) at that point wondering (as I was) why sunrise hasn't switched his vote to one of the two relevant candidates.

At this point, Bob hangs and Meiz is safe in a tie, because he has dropped 2 votes below Bob.

5 votes: Bobchillingworth ( Meiz, Rowain, Gaspar, GES, pindicator)
3 votes: Meiz (Jabbz, Kaiser, Alhambram)
2 votes: Kaiser (Bobchillingworth, sunrise)

sunrise replies to Meiz about this after the Meiz suspicion. He waits until 19 minutes til deadline and puts a vote on me. Now my read on this at the time, was that he either didn't want to be part of the lynch (cowardly, but townish) OR he was hoping to peel pindicator off who had expressed the most interest besides him in lynching me, off of Bob which would potentially re-open the Meiz lynch (unlikely, but scummy.)

So, I don't see the miss in Meiz's analysis. Now granted, there were a total of 8 minutes from when sunrise showed up until pindicator changed the calculus.

The relevant piece here is before Pindicator's vote, sunrise arrived in the thread as the swing voter. At that point, if nothing changes Meiz hangs. If he votes Meiz, Meiz hangs. If he votes Bob, Bob hangs. If Bob comes in and votes Meiz, and then sunrise jumps on Bob, Meiz hangs in the tiebreak, Bob looks clean because he's voting to save himself and sunrise doesn't get dirty because he's in the right place at the end. If sunrise and Bob are both scum, the best play is this. The second best play is the one where nobody does anything and Meiz hangs. My supposition is that Bob was going to come in and vote after sunrise warmed up the room a bit but then pindicator threw things off by voting as he did and then sunrise and Bob decided it wasn't worth exposing sunrise's deep cover to save him. And there is no good reason to expect pindicator to change his mind - he's upset at Meiz and everyone knows it.

[sunrise089]

Gaspar, Meiz says OVER AND OVER that the threat was me voting Bob but Meiz still hanging. That's his analysis. Me being scum to Meiz follows directly from that. But Bob was away and has been away every deadline as Meiz himself said. Note if I'm scum I know whether Bob is going to come back or not. We know he didn't. So knowing that what was my motivation?

Do you seriously think Bob was secretly active there? Bob was going to disrupt his real-life day/plans for ww?!

[sunrise089]

You guys have convinced yourselves that my investigation of both Meiz + Kaiser, vote for Kaiser, return to discuss Meiz and Kaiser's towniness, and vote for Gaspar when Meiz wasn't threatened are all a bigger threat to Meiz than the voters on Meiz who have basically escaped any investigation.

My scum reads post is forthcoming and that's about it to me. I've defended every way I know how and attempted to answer every claim against me. I will of course remain engaged and answer any more questions or whatever but I think that's all I can do to make the case I'm town.

[sunrise089]

I've said a ton about why I'm town. Here's why everyone else is scum. Rowain isn't listed since I have him as fully town and Gold isn't listed because I don't think there's enough there for me to make a lean based on (which is damning in a broader sense).

Meiz:
-->Drove (alongside ghost WK) the lynch on town Lewwyn and is driving the lynch on town me. Driving to kill 2 town and 2 scum isn't bad but Commodore was under a lot of pressure and so many think he was bussed and the Bob push/bus came very late when Meiz may have needed to sacrifice another scum to live himself.
-->Told me not to talk N4, then started talking way before deadline about how if pindicator is revealed to be town sunrise looks bad...sure enough pind dies and Meiz has his evidence to speed up his train.
-->His role and his losing of it are goofy and seem anti-town. Conveniently 'forgot' to read his PM from Brick at the start of Day 4, and now claims to still not have the role even though evidence would seem to point to Bob having fake-removed it via his mailman ability.
-->Has defended Gaspar and those attacking Gaspar, even back to my original D1 push on the latter.
-->Lied about/went back on promise to push Jabbz role claim with me.
-->See my 1,769 - his main case on me that informs his entire Day 5 is based on a nonsensical accounting of votes.
-->Clearly he's the most engaged with the game here, which is usually a town tell. But after thinking about what Lewwyn said and now my own experience I think I see him as engaging with the GAME but not engaging with the PLAYERS. It's almost like most of his posts could work just as well in the lurker thread since it's all just consuming the game passively and then offering a response. By this I mean he doesn't seem willing to make much of a good-faith effort to answer rebuttals or consider alternative viewpoints, which lets him selectively pick his facts and interpretations of them. Q for other vets: is this typical of Meiz?

Gaspar:
-->I'll say up front I find Gaspar enjoyable to interact with as his posts are logical and his engagement with the game, such as it is, seems in good-faith.
-->D1 voted Meiz for reasons I thought were BS then and are BS now.
-->Said that Thrawn was trying too hard when he was actually being inactive and then tucking into his shell when he had become active. Has made justification attempts at both of those remarks but to me he just isn't actually reading the game, at least for big stretches.
-->See Lewwyn 1,341, especially about the dynamics around the Thrawn lynch. Gaspar has maintained that lynching Thrawn isn't a town look for anyone and this makes sense given he ended up on pindicator over thrawn and seemed to be setting up a Lewwyn mislynch when thrawn rolled villager as scum would have expected.
-->In general I think his effort is low this game relative to his skill. Preached the value of focusing on tone early but since then hasn't said a whole lot about tone and has skipped over large swaths of the players.
-->Posted 18 times on the morning leading up to D1 deadline. 8 times morning of D2 deadline. 11 times D3. And once on D3 (and was way less active than usual the night before too). This is the most damning thing to me, and looks like scum realizing he couldn't defend against the attack well and so hid out to let the attack fizzle out. If I die today please contrast this play versus my D5 when I flip villager.

Alhambram:
-->Very scummy start, no-lynch, etc.
-->See Lewwyn, 1,227.
-->Meta - IF Brick wasn't sticking to pure role/alignment randomization then 1 Town + 1 Scum neighbor alignment is probably more likely than a normal pair of Town + Random Villager. Fake edit: I checked. Brick in the planning thread said the alignments would be randomized but did not say the powers would be, just that he'd not know which RB identity they we being applied to until after the setup was done. This makes me higher on Alhambram as scum.
-->Undoubtedly getting better but I still think it's low content-per-word, i.e. lots of lists.
-->Has me town all game until I get pressure from Meiz and then suddenly he's long been suspecting me and has me as his top target. This seems too opportunistic to be a good town play.
-->Comes at me hard in 1,707 for not moving to Gaspar saying it would have increased the likelihood Gaspar hangs. When I point out he just got finished typing that I had no reason to switch to Meiz Day 4 since he wasn't in the lead he offers a weak "I guess we'll never know" and then disappears from the game including potentially the vote tomorrow.

Kaiser:
-->Roland vibe with his long posts.
-->Ridiculous N3 power usage claim - the claim that it would dissuade scum's kill was wrong on its face, and the perceived need to breadcrumb anything when the objective was to make sure scum thought the power was used has still not been adequately explained.

Jabbz:
-->Lots of sloppy errors - just doesn't seem to be reading or engaging with the game. Even just above says to me he doesn't need to re-read since that exchange doesn't affect his view of me - makes sense as a scum trying to find evidence for/against a certain objective but not as town trying to find scum amongst all the players.
-->I still find it wild he'd check the wiki for the basic mechanics of how his role worked when he had the PM open in from of him and Brick has included pretty thorough descriptions of each role in the PM.

I think most likely scum pairings are Meiz + Alhambram, Meiz + Gaspar, or Gaspar + one of Gold/Kaiser/Jabbz, probably in that order.

I think if scum are two of Alhambram, Gold, Kaiser, and Jabbz we may as well lynch randomly since all have been at one time or another allowed to not put in effort.

My concern lynching Alhambram first is that if he is town then the road to lynch me next and have us lose the game is so so easy.

[Gaspar]

Quickly re: my absence on D3 - I was at work and actually had to actively engage in work. I don't talk about this because I think its scummy to use your RL as a shield. I legitimately had no idea I was even a candidate until after the lynch.

[Gaspar]

Gaspar, Meiz says OVER AND OVER that the threat was me voting Bob but Meiz still hanging. That's his analysis. Me being scum to Meiz follows directly from that. But Bob was away and has been away every deadline as Meiz himself said. Note if I'm scum I know whether Bob is going to come back or not. We know he didn't. So knowing that what was my motivation?

Do you seriously think Bob was secretly active there? Bob was going to disrupt his real-life day/plans for ww?!

I mean, I made my own analysis, I don't blindly follow Meiz's. Its close enough to my own that I didn't bother contradicting it. I'm just re-telling what I thought at the time.