WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[sunrise089]

Gaspar, to be clear, I’m just trying to get people to look at Meiz here (or, reconsider their vote if it’s based on Meiz’s analysis; I understand that yours isn’t). If I get lynched and flip town we can’t let Meiz just ram down another mislynch regardless of his alignment.

[Jabbz]

Jabbz:
-->Lots of sloppy errors - just doesn't seem to be reading or engaging with the game. Even just above says to me he doesn't need to re-read since that exchange doesn't affect his view of me - makes sense as a scum trying to find evidence for/against a certain objective but not as town trying to find scum amongst all the players.
-->I still find it wild he'd check the wiki for the basic mechanics of how his role worked when he had the PM open in from of him and Brick has included pretty thorough descriptions of each role in the PM.

Heh. So I don't jump on your train and now I'm scummy. Cute. 

You're right, I'm not reading or engaging the game nearly as much as I usually do. I got overwhelmed day one, and asked Brik if I could be replaced, but he didn't think it was possible and asked me to soldier on. I've done so to the best of my ability. So yea, I'm being very careful about what I read, as my eyes are pushing their limits. But hey, whatever floats your boat.

[Jabbz]

Anyway, I'm off for the night, I'll try to get on an hour or so before deadline. That being said, if it's another 150 post night, I'm not going to be caught up by deadline.

Gnight all.

[Meiz]

Thanks Rowain. And sure I was dangerous to Meiz more broadly - at that point Meiz hangs if I vote him or if I stay on Kaiser. I’m not saying clear me over this or even that’s it a town tell. Just that Meiz’s whole push on me started with him saying he suspected I was going to game the tie vote to see him lynched without voting for him myself, and he’s stuck to that today by emphasizing how my lean on him meant as a wolf I couldn’t vote him and had to find another angle via the tiebreak.

You're probably right in the details of potential vote movements, I never went back and checked. What I remember is being in a 4v4 and about to lose a tiebreak, which was only saved by Pindicators vote move (thx Pind, MVP move) which no one could have expected. Therefore I re-described the way I think last day ended:

My view on how the last day went.

- You had put me as your stonger townreads previously. The first phase of the day was votes agaisnt me & Kaiser. It is natural for you to vote Kaiser here due to your earlier townread on me. Of course at this point you cannot have knowledge that Bob would become a lynch candidate later, so no mastermind plans can exist at the point. If Kaiser is town as I suspect, the day starts nicely for wolves.

- During the day there is discussions on why Kaiser's claim doesn't make sense for a wolf, and on how Gaspar's D1 doesn't make sense for a wolf. These reads do not seem to affect your views on these players as I don't recall any comments on them.

- My plan to survive the lynch is to find a better candidate, and I end up to vote Bob. Even though the reasons for others to follow on Bob are not detailed, the fact is that these players decide to vote for a scum in a phase where Bob lynch could be avoided.

- You come back online but are hesitant to move your vote away from Kaiser. You cannot justify a vote on me, because of your earlier townread on me. If you are scum, your vote against me would be looked badly the following day. The deadline is closing (probably 20 minutes left or so) and you are still sitting on your Kaiser vote without taking a stance in one way or another, so I start to question it. Only after my questioning you are prompted to vote for Gaspar. What I see is a hesitant play, that IMO fits with you & Bob as scum partners, and you not being sure on how to resolve the situation in your advantage.

First off, I feel you are taking this one factual error from me and making it a bigger deal than it is, to try to make me look more suspicious. And secondly, we can always try to think how a wolf would play this type of scenario in perfectly, but the reality is different. I do not believe you as wolf would do a full on switch on me and vote me at the time, and I do not think the perfect play for you would have been to start showing doubt agaisnt me earlier, because Bob was not in any danger earlier in the day. We can endessly talk on the subject of "this is how I'd do it as a wolf", but I rarely find them credible argumentations. And I stand by my read of your hesitance to hang Bob being a very potential scumbuddy behavior.

[Meiz]

Meiz:
-->Drove (alongside ghost WK) the lynch on town Lewwyn and is driving the lynch on town me. Driving to kill 2 town and 2 scum isn't bad but Commodore was under a lot of pressure and so many think he was bussed and the Bob push/bus came very late when Meiz may have needed to sacrifice another scum to live himself.
-->Told me not to talk N4, then started talking way before deadline about how if pindicator is revealed to be town sunrise looks bad...sure enough pind dies and Meiz has his evidence to speed up his train.
-->His role and his losing of it are goofy and seem anti-town. Conveniently 'forgot' to read his PM from Brick at the start of Day 4, and now claims to still not have the role even though evidence would seem to point to Bob having fake-removed it via his mailman ability.
-->Has defended Gaspar and those attacking Gaspar, even back to my original D1 push on the latter.
-->Lied about/went back on promise to push Jabbz role claim with me.
-->See my 1,769 - his main case on me that informs his entire Day 5 is based on a nonsensical accounting of votes.
-->Clearly he's the most engaged with the game here, which is usually a town tell. But after thinking about what Lewwyn said and now my own experience I think I see him as engaging with the GAME but not engaging with the PLAYERS. It's almost like most of his posts could work just as well in the lurker thread since it's all just consuming the game passively and then offering a response. By this I mean he doesn't seem willing to make much of a good-faith effort to answer rebuttals or consider alternative viewpoints, which lets him selectively pick his facts and interpretations of them. Q for other vets: is this typical of Meiz?

I was wondering where the lied about Jabbz comes from, so you must be referring to this: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754658
The only thing I remember is that I was not responding to your post above, but to something much earlier (hadn't realized that the page had switched and there were more comments). But no idea what I was responding to at this point  
This was my view on the PM stuff: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754648

[Gold Ergo Sum]

I think if scum are two of Alhambram, Gold, Kaiser, and Jabbz we may as well lynch randomly since all have been at one time or another allowed to not put in effort.

Omar actually dug around when he had time, compared what people said they were thinking and planned to do versus what they actually voted and made pretty good cases on Swanson and Robot I think.  Sadly, Swanson was a villager, but the case was strong enough he got vig'd, so Omar was not the only one seeing odd behavior.  Who knows with Robot?  But not all of us have an entire day to post several dozen posts, mainly with the aim of saving our own skin.  It is curious that you waited to truly come alive in this game until your neck was out there.

Omar also asked some decent questions like whether a villain Weeb Fox would advertise his mislynch by killing Duo Puppet throughout the course of this game etc. and have tried to make useful suggestions like ixnaying the night talk.  If Omar gotta SPAM up the thread to show "effort," that's never going to happen. 

 

And while I agree with Omar on the principle of gathering behind the surest townie I prefer Heros to do their own thinking so to make it a bit more difficult for Omar to hide:: Omar

Oh and Omar one reminder:

I do remember the wolf game from GES  where he constantly claimed to have no time  he even went so far to ask in his civ-games to not report any diplo with him so that his "time-strained- excuse " is more believable and faked a drunken post calling Ichabod Ochabid etc Wolves won that one thanks to him.  So I absolutely agree if he keeps this low-profile he should be lynched.

No drunken (or stoned) post this time

First, Omar abstains.  Don't know you Omar?  I thought everyone in this here game "be knowing Omar." 

Second, Omar don't understand your logic at all here.  You agree it's generally a good idea in principle, but you still don't like it.  Omar quite clear on the people he thought were town at the time and would not vote for.  Given a relative lack of time to really dig in, and the strategic advantage of pooling village votes, Omar figures limiting the ability for late voting moves by preventing a spread of village votes (as might have happened if Omar stayed on Robot, hence the bulk of today's discussion) outweighs whatever marginal difference Omar found in the likelihood of villainy.  Omar expressed a preference towards lynching Robot over Jerry! and Jabbz, but we are talking low levels of certainty.  Swanson was the only person Omar felt any real certainty on, and I mean, dude was a villager despite that.  Funny, though, that nearly everyone was like, "I would have pulled that trigger too."

- Is there a contradiction I am missing here?

to shorten it for you
What you say is:
people lynching town are scummy
people lynching wolf are scummy 

Are there any people not scummy? well you have sunrise as town so apparently sitting on the sideline while others do the lynching is towny. Best example: Bob 

Omar had significantly reduced Robot's likelihood of villainy after skimming Meiz's defense of him, but after re-reading, I'm not so sure.  Omar feel Robot has been the least consistent player from post-to-post, day-to-day.  Hell, from participle to participle.  Brother will say he believes Meiz is town, and then on the other side of a comma, that he is a wolf in a bath robe.  The fact he continues to get an "itch" about Old Tea Man is confusing too.  At this point, if Old Tea Man is a villain, we are losing this game for sure.  Omar don't get the purpose at all of such trains of thought.

It seems clear that Bob was not online anymore (like in previosu EOD's as well), and I'm confident one wolf was already voting for me. And with votes being tied, sunrise's hesitance to seal the deal for Bob & save me seems scummy behavior to me.

Wait a sec Meiz, isn't your theory I was going to make you lose the tiebreak? If Bob wasn't online how does that work? It can't even get to 5v5. If I vote Bob that would be 5-4-1 Bob. What am I missing?????

Talking Dog, Omar generally think you have done an admirable job of defense today.  But if this is the supposed air tight alibi, honestly Omar thinks it makes you look worse.  Omar not sure how you can be certain Jerry! would not show up once his neck was on the line unless you know from speaking with the man outside this thread.  And if there is a chance he could return, sure seems like you would want to wait and let Jerry! put the fifth vote on Skelly, since saving his own neck would not gain nearly as much of a villain-stain since it was a sensible bit of self-protection, whereas all your village cred would go up in a puff of smoke by casting the lynch vote on Skelly if he flips village.  Additionally, your village cred would be way more valuable than Jerry! and definitely worth Jerry! taking the exposure risk to protect you.  But then Bee-Boy shows up and switches to Jerry! unexpectedly and there really is no more village-cred to be had by bussing Jerry! if you were a villain anyway.  Omar not saying you're a villain.  Omar still figure 40% sounds about right.  Omar just saying this argument is not a sound one.

Gaspar, to be clear, I’m just trying to get people to look at Meiz here (or, reconsider their vote if it’s based on Meiz’s analysis; I understand that yours isn’t). If I get lynched and flip town we can’t let Meiz just ram down another mislynch regardless of his alignment.

OK, Talking Dog.  Omar listening.  What do you make of Bee-Boy's post below now that you know he is a villager?  I starred it in my notes to come back to it if Bee-Boy popped village.  Interesting to see where votes were a half-hour from Flip's lynch.

Bigger picture thoughts, because I didn't expect Lewwyn to follow Gaspar and I on Cyneheard if he was scum defending his buddy, I expected him to hammer away at me instead.  If Lewwyn and Cyneheard are scum team together then why would Cyneheard be the bus?  Shouldn't Lewwyn be the one bussed in that scenario?  Instead Lewwyn is voting Cyneheard and Cyneheard voting Lewwyn - okay that part is consistent with a team trying to cast mutual doubt.  However I'm finding it doubtful that Lewwyn & Cyneheard are on a team based on this latest exchange.

So if Lewwyn isn't defending Cyneheard then there's only 1 scum in the current group of vote-getters at most.  (Yeah, you all won't believe I'm town until I flip but I'm town, so at least make a mental note to come back to this analysis later.)

Let's steal from Bobchillingworth a little bit here:

Day 2 WarriorKnight Voters

* pindicator
* Commodore (known Roleblocker)
* Lewwyn (claimed Hider)
* AdrienIer
* Cyneheard 



Some may find this obvious, or trite, but George has to STICK WITH HIS GUNS here and say that Pindicator, Lewwyn, and Cyneheard are all suspicious for voting for a (now) known villager, in the main wagon opposed to lynching (also now) known scum Commodore!  Are they all scum??  No!  Or, probably not!  That would not be likely at all! If it was, I would be freaking out right now, Jerry!  Which I'm clearly not!  But anyway, at least one of them is very likely scum.  Maybe two!  


Day 2 AdrienIer Voters

... Wait, this was apparently only me?  George did not actually realize this until going back at Brick's tally to write this post.  Well, I wasn't around for like the last eight hours of the day- it's a legitimate excuse, Jerry!  Although now I'm getting really annoyed that there were free train rides and I wasn't around to grab a seat!  This ALWAYS happens to me, Jerry!  It's a conspiracy!  

But anyway, I voted for a villager.  Who Rowain then apparently shot.  Sorry, Adrien!  



So I still need to vote for someone- based on his Day 2 votes, and current "woe is me" attitude, I'm voting for Pindicator right now.  That's right, Jerry! 

But Lew, Cyne, and Kaiser are all suspicious as well!  Also, though it got ZERO TRACTION before, since Commodore has now been CONFIRMED FOR SCUM, if anyone wants thinks my theory of Omar / Commodore "megapost" collusion wasn't COMPLETELY INSANE then maybe it's worth revisiting!

So we know AdrienIer is town.  I'm town.  If Lewwyn and Cyneheard aren't a scum pair then there is at most 1 scum on WarriorKnight outside of Commodore.

How about people who voted for WarriorKnight or otherwise voted on AdrienIer that could otherwise save Commodore?

I'm going to steal from Alhambram's voter recap post last night:

Analysis day 2 vote
 
Let’s do same as day 1, in depth analysis from moment that Lewwyn attempts Warriorknight train.
Starting with beginning of day 2 till post #728
 
Rowain started Commodore train with Meiz and Gaspar almost instantly joining. Meanwhille 4 players who didn’t vote for either Pindicator or thrawn got prodded around by others or each others. Kaiser voted for Rowain who seemed irked by i tand voted for Kaiser together with Novice (again!).
Commodore meanwhile voted for GES and quess who joined him: Lewwyn and Pindicator putting votes for GES at 4, 4th being AdrienIer for prodding reasons. Then Commodore highfived Pindicator. It caused me to park my vote at Commodore, I decided if Commodore would show some towny vibes, or someone is even more scummy I might switch vote. But that didn’t happen, so I kept vote at Commodore till very end, Meiz and Gaspar also kept their vote till end. Also notable when I cast vote at Commodore, Lewwyn started to poke me, seeminly to protect Commodore and Pindicator.
Also interesting there was one more person who did complain about me calling out Commodore and Pindicator handfive, that was AdrienIer. And I am going talk about him more later at conclusions of day 2, but just for now, check all three votes of day 1, guess who always voted same as AdrienIer (answer is Commodore). Adrienler calling out me caused two people to vote for him which one of them was Lewwyn. But as soon red ink of Lewwyn’s vote for AdrienIer has yet to dry, he noticed a discrepancy in Warriorknight’s posts which I also did feel bit odd when rereading very fast through thread before deadline. Warriorknight did post response after I went to sleep and then to work early, therefore I would miss out unfolding drama till last hour.
 
Lynch votes before Lewwyn attempts Warriorknight train with post #728
4 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, WarriorKnight)
2 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser, Commodore)
2 votes: Kaiser/Isaac (Rowain, novice)
2 votes: AdrienIer/Ron Swanson (Cyneheard, Lewwyn)
1 votes: Alhambram/Homer Simpson (AdrienIer)
1 votes: Gold Ergo Sum/Omar Little (pindicator)
1 votes: novice/Carrie Mathison (Bobchillingworth)


Lewwyn instead asking in a politely way for explanation starts hammer down Warriorknight very hard. And guess about who Warriorknight did post? Yes again Commodore and Pindicator. Soon as Lewwyn cast vote, Pindicator followed him (again!). Also interesting is one who followed suit: AdrienIer which move baffled others and got piled up by GES, Bob, Rowain and Warriorknight after AdrienIer’s post #777. At that moment AdrienIer got most votes, almost seem that Commodore/Pindicator duo might escape again. But then Sunrise and Novice moved upon Commodore. Warriorknight then decides that AdrienIer is lesser of two evils and swings back to Commodore. Then AdrienIer and Lewwyn suddenly switch to Gaspar while Commodore jump to Warriorknight. Lewwyn remarks that he wants vote for Gaspar and Warriorknight alone, no mention of either Commodore and Pindicator (post #813). But afterwards they concludes that Warriorknight has best lynch chances and both Lewwyn and AdrienIer swings back to Warriorknight. Meanwhile Cyneheard decided to join Warriorknight train, he however still distrusts AdrienIer and calls out Lewwyn for trusting AdreinIer as townie. With half hour to go tally is as follows.
 
Lynch votes with half hour before deadline
6 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, sunrise089, novice, WarriorKnight)
5 votes: WarriorKnight/Statler & Waldorf (pindicator, Commodore, Lewwyn, AdrienIer, Cyneheard)
3 votes: AdrienIer/Ron Swanson (Gold Ergo Sum, Bobchillingworth, Rowain)
1 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser)
 
Two notable things about this vote: firstly is Kaiser who promised answers but came so late and parked vote upon Rowain almost since beginning of day 2. He can make difference if he shows up. 
Secondly more interesting Jabbz has yet to vote and he promises to do last minute.
And in half hour those two did show up. Kaiser spent so many time writing stuffs that he decided casting vote for AdrienIer due looking most supicious of people that he invesitaged so far.
Jabbz did show up with interesting question about what Commodore did last night. Commodore answered that he did nothing, Lewwyn pressed further which ability which Commodore answered as commuter. Finally Jabbz did cast vote upon Commodore with some factual errors as Sunrise and Meiz pointed out. And to wrap up GES, Rowain and Kaiser switched to Commodore.

Final Result Lynch votes
10 votes: Commodore/Flipper  (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, sunrise089, novice, WarriorKnight, Jabbz, Gold Ergo Sum, Rowain, Kaiser)
5 votes: WarriorKnight/Statler & Waldorf (pindicator, Commodore, Lewwyn, AdrienIer, Cyneheard)
1 votes: AdrienIer/Ron Swanson (Bobchillingworth)

Though I'm not taking his analysis because he has to suspect me because he isn't me.  I know Lewwyn isn't protecting me and it sure looks like he isn't trying to save Cyneheard like my first thought was when he voted for me.  However, he could still be playing me as a patsy and Cyneheard could be the mislynch target and then tomorrow we get to me or he hopes to take me next ... but his stuff sure looks town today to me.  He isn't stopping yet.

I agree with Rowain's thoughts that scum could have bussed Commodore.  In fact, I think that it's looking more and more likely that they may not have come roaring out of the gates to lynch him day 2, they probably decided to safely put early votes on him and see which way the wind was blowing.  When it became obvious that Commodore was going to get heat regardless of the outcome then it became more practical to set up mislynches for following days.  Commodore, I believe, even played along.  His content fell off the map during day 2.  I should have seen it, but... anyway, I should have listened to the "what if" voice that was noticing Commodore not participating much in the second half of day 2.  I got blinded to him.

I don't put it out of question that there was an early scum vote on Commodore that just stayed there.  Actually, looking back I think Alhambram makes sense there.  Gaspar has looked town to me.  Meiz, though insufferable, also sounds town.  WarriorKnight we know is town.  I think I would actually give more town points to the sunrise and novice votes since they pushed Commodore back into the lead over AdrienIer rather than some others.  Jabbz is probably town.  Gold Ergo Sum has been resonating well with me since his day 2 thesis paper.  Rowain made a very pro-town shot on AdrienIer last night, and he is also the only other person who is smartly looking at this possibility that there were scum bussing Commodore.

I have to give scum points to Bobchillingworth, regardless of time zones.  Kaiser does not look good here.  It woudl be really nice if Cyneheard ends up being scum because if he is not then you have to really start looking at Alhambram, or Meiz and Gaspar as some kind of uber-wolf, but I don't think town is going to win if Meiz or Gaspar is a wolf.  Similarly, if Rowain pulled off a fake vig claim as scum I'm just going to tip my hat and be jealous that I couldn't do it like he could.  I've strayed too far into WIFOM territory here.

I'll add that the night kills are really telling to me of someone who is veteran to the RB meta.  They are doing a great job of picking off people are strong town players (Gazglum N1) or someone who could be seen as confirmed town but not an obvious target (WarriroKnight N2).  In fact, the WarriorKnight on N2 seems to reinforce to me that they are trying to set up possibly ALL voters of WarriorKnight.

Cyneheard + BobChillingworth + Kaiser?  Seems too simple.  Alhambram then?  Gaspar for not wanting to even entertain Commodore being bussed?  Back into WIFOM territory...


And one more "screw you, Meiz" for thinking that i have to be scum for not keeping 15 reads up-to-date in my head at every possible moment, especially in a game where someone I was ardently defending turned up scum.  It must be nice living in a world where you never even entertain the possibility that you're wrong.


Question for the Old Man, since I trust him the most right now:  who's your most suspicious Commodore voter?

Omar's brain is completely fried, but I am caught up at least.  And frankly, soon as this here game ends, Omar gonna show you how good a tracker he is and come ace all you for making Omar spend this much time on a game none of you fools could bother to stay in character for for more than a day.  Just like Marlo, none of y'all man enough to come down into these streets with Omar.

That said, one thing I noticed in that Bee-Boy post was that odd Robot vote on Old Tea Man, which Omar remember then got moved to Swanson after he was a non-lynch target, and then finally moved to Flip long after his fins were cooked.  Some of you all insist on listening to the music.  Omar like stuff he can reach out and touch.  Omar just see a bunch of moves and behaviors and viewpoints that are inconsistent and that don't make sense and figures, maybe there is a reason none of it makes sense.

Omar still thinks it may make sense to settle the feuding neighbor dispute, but Robot it is.  if things are this hopelessly split tomorrow, we may be in serious trouble though.

[Meiz]

Gaspar, to be clear, I’m just trying to get people to look at Meiz here (or, reconsider their vote if it’s based on Meiz’s analysis; I understand that yours isn’t). If I get lynched and flip town we can’t let Meiz just ram down another mislynch regardless of his alignment.

You do realize I have only 1 vote, right?

[Rowain]

Gaspar, to be clear, I’m just trying to get people to look at Meiz here (or, reconsider their vote if it’s based on Meiz’s analysis; I understand that yours isn’t). If I get lynched and flip town we can’t let Meiz just ram down another mislynch regardless of his alignment.

You do realize I have only 1 vote, right?  

Yes but you are the last living herder. Nobody left who can start trains.

[Meiz]

Gaspar, to be clear, I’m just trying to get people to look at Meiz here (or, reconsider their vote if it’s based on Meiz’s analysis; I understand that yours isn’t). If I get lynched and flip town we can’t let Meiz just ram down another mislynch regardless of his alignment.

You do realize I have only 1 vote, right?  

Yes but you are the last living herder. Nobody left who can start trains.

You're giving too little credit for yourself here.

Anyways, I also don't like the mental image selling Pindicator has done today, "Meiz can't be trusted, don't let him mislynch another townie tomorrow", but of course that's colored by my pov.

[Rowain]

lets look what happened d4:

My switch from Kaiser to Meiz makes it 5:5 at that moment Kaiser would still hang but the danger for Meiz became high. He responded by switching to Bob whioch led to the following cascade which after Omars switch ended with the 4:4. At that point Meiz would hang and given the activity and posts from those Meiz-voters the chance of another switch was low. Nobody especially not Meiz could expect that pindicator switches saving Meiz and lynching Bob. I do think this did catch the scum with pants down and it makes look sunrise so bad. More important I don't really see a reason why scum Meiz would risk his neck for that. He could expect Gaspar to switch or me to not stay on him. But GES switching was not a given (except if he is scum-buddie with Meiz) and pindicators switch was unexpected.

Looking at this I can't help and give Meiz a far higher chance to be town than to be scum.

sunrise action/inaction before pindi moved from Meiz to Bob do look extremely bad. OTOH voting Gaspar after pindis switch doesn't do anything one way or the other. Although I want to believe that scum sunrise would have voted Bob then.

BTW sunrise what happened with the other parts of your essay?