WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Peace Old Tea Man.  You might have been a frustrating curmudgeon of a villager, but at least Omar was sure you were a villager.

[Meiz]

GG Rowain. Maybe the best town game I've seen you play.

Gaspar, Meiz, Alhambram, Omar, Jabbz, Kaiser?

So assuming 2 scum this is LyLo?

Kaiser

Why is Kaiser scum and who's his scum partner?

[Gaspar]

As I said, your vote was late and inconsequential.  Rowain is not colored with the same brush because he made it clear that he wanted to lynch Commodore all day long.  Rowain always moves his vote around a lot for pressure but usually you know where he wants to end up.

Roland is someone who played in the early WW games and got tons of town cred for long analysis posts.  He skated through a game with a flawless scum victory based on this fact.  Since then, I am very suspicious of people who post a lot of really dense analysis posts.

I have stated the reasons I think you are suspicious before Kaiser.  I am dubious on your role claim.  I see that your posts sow a lot of confusion and have a lot of fanciful theories.  And your voting history is suspect.  Mostly, its a vibe I get from you, which generally speaking, is enough for me to vote someone.

This is what I said yesterday.

Basically here is my overall thought. I think Meiz is likely village. I think Alhambram slightly less likely but still probably village. I think one of GES/Jabbz and Kaiser are the remaining scum.

I'll have to reconsider all the permutations later but thats my thinking currently.

[Meiz]

Question for Kaiser then, my last post on the subject of losing the power was this: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755234
Your next post in the game was another long analysis, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755331

- Why did you ignore the point I was making?
- On your linked post, how likely do you think the scenario of:
"The wolves either planned from the beginning or decided Midway Day1 that they would try to use Lewwyn to do the heavy lifting and then lynch him later after he had managed to lynch at least one villager.
At the same time they were willing to sacrifice Commodore to gain town credit for probably at least 2 wolves and Lewwyn on Day2 so the Lewwyn train could run longer but with hopefully more collateral among the village."
is?

[Alhambram]

GG Rowain, well played!

So, six players remains of us with likely 2 wolves among us, need to reread all players again starting now. Saturday when I wake up and I has nothing to do coming Saturday, with still 9 hours before dealine, I should have enough time to reread players.

[Alhambram]

While rereading end of night 3 and start of day 4, maybe I am mistaken but I might notice some strange thing here GES's post #1383 and Jabbz's post #1399:

Omar wanted to share a few of his musings in case he not around after tonight.


Omar tracked Bee-Boy.  Omar figure if he successfully bodyguards and dies, we can confirm a villager based on his target.  Also, Omar not sure how order of operations work, but if Jabbz is who he says, I expect he beholds Omar, and so maybe village gets the information even if Omar gets got tonight.

Omar did not track yesterday for a few reasons.  First, limited charges on an ability that seems to increase in power as targets diminish.  Two, Omar trying to draw a nightkill on himself.  Omar been out of this here game for a long time and so Omar a bit lacking in baselines to read from.  Omar figure if he can draw a night kill, village would be better off overall than if some of the better players go down.  Additionally, Omar just lacks the time and inclination to "Meiz his ass off," and due to 9-5 reasons, that is about to get a lot worse.  If late information affects voting in the future, lets just say Omar often got meetings with lovely men and women in black robes that start a half-hour before deadline.  Day at a time if Omar can make his presence heard at crunch time.  

But at this point, we on a short clock, with only one more guaranteed night after this one to track before the game ends if Omar's arithmetic square, so at this point, better smoke them Newpo's while you got 'em.


It looks like today likely to be a referendum on Doc.  Omar no Mozart.  He don't got that perfect pitch like some players here think they do.  But while Omar lacks that tonal proficiency, and a baseline to really answer a hypothesis, Omar thinks he is able to posit some decent queries.

1) Let's assume Bee-Boy village.  If Doc a villain, would he have gone that hard at him on D1?  It seems Q was probably seen as village by the villains.  Would Doc draw that much unnecessary attention?  If Bee-boy is a villain, Doc's move seems even more unlikely.  Someone with a better sense of baseline Doc should chime in here.  Omar asked yesterday if a villain Weeb Fox kills Duo Puppet and bright lights his misread, but no one who could make that read seemed to really address it.

2) Would Doc bus Flip that hard D2?  This one seems probable to Omar that he might, but others can probably say if Doc arrogant enough to think he and three additional villains could silver tongue a reprieve instead.

3) When Omar assumed Weeb Fox was a villain, it sure looked like Doc and Weeb Fox were going at each other when Weeb Fox was not a threat, but not when Weeb Fox was under the gun, as a misdirect.  But now that Weeb Fox village, Omar has not had a clear reinterp come yet.  Would villain Doc intentionally pick a scrap with Weeb Fox who was looking likely to be mislynched?

4) Omar still remembers that Flip/Doc back-to-back on Skelly ("Bee-Boy") early D1.  A villain attempt to start a train that never left the station on a power player?

5) Omar's notes show that Doc was the leading vote getter at post 116, with four votes.  A close read of the votes before and after could be useful.

Omar voted Doc D1, but this is mainly because Omar woke up to an impossible glut of new posts, never caught up, and felt more comfortable leaving it there than joining in on a fast moving situation without any real understanding.  But Omar did have his vote there initially for a reason.  Overall, Omar think Doc more shady than average this game, but then again, Omar was convinced on Swanson and Weeb Fox too.  Batting average feel closer to Bob Uecker than Ted Williams right now.  Also, not sure why Omar favoring baseball metaphors.  Omar hates baseball.  Following the Orioles more of a downer than heroin.


Jabbz is either impersonating a drowning villager or is a drowning villager.  Omar not sure.  If Jabbz does not behold Omar tonight, that would set off alarms for Omar, given he claims to understand his role now.  If he does behold Omar, then I would tend to think he is village, because that role seems fairly useless for a villain.  That said, Skelly and others say trying to read the game through meta-analysis like that a fool's errand.


Robot has some odd votes as I already pointed out.  Voted Q D1 after saying he thought Q was less suspicious.  Voted Swanson D2 when it was clear that train was going nowhere, then a useless late switch onto Flip. Plus he mentioned that Weeb Fox started the Q train in 537, even though Robot was already asking questions about Q before Weeb Fox's crusade, and votes were already on Q.  Given Robot has made pretty detailed observations when he decides to, this seems maybe a little shady.  Robot's role claim could be true, but is conveniently unverifiable.


Speaking of odd votes, Jerry! voted for Simp D1, Swanson D2, and Bee-Boy D3.  That's three for three voting the lowest vote getter.  This appears to be time-related potentially.  Omar got no clue where Jerry! walks the streets.  Omar not one to call someone out for availability, but again, will leave it to those with baseline reads on Jerry! if his activity alone is a tell one way or the other.  All things being equal though, Jerry! the last of you players at all entertaining Omar, so Omar would probably tiebreak with a reprieve just so he don't die of boredom reading this thread if it was a close call.


Omar notice CIA really went full spook D3.  This was definitely a change in behavior.  But Omar thinks this is likely due to the lynch being fairly obvious, and the thread being cluttered up with Weeb Fox rants, most of which were against Kardashian, who flipped village, along with flailing at Omar, Simp, Robot, Doc, Bee-Boy and probably a few others Omar forgot.   Omar admits he will need the upcoming weekend to truly catch up on D3 because he was not that engaged in the details either.

Also worth noting that best as Omar can recall, only CIA, Doc, and Jerry! have not claimed.  No clue if that means anything at all.


No one expects to die an old man in this here game, so if Omar passes, do not fret.  Just make them Barksdales pay.

I believe I can safely confirm Omar's abilities, and my own. "Bee-boy" targeted Rowain. I dont know the likelihood of scum having a tracker, or of any other abilities giving information along those lines. To me however, that appears to clear Omar. Less certain about Pindicator, because we received no information on what his abilities were.

Thank you Omar. I thought long and hard, but had decided not to use my ability tonight. Catching your post last minute was a boon.

Ok, If I am mistaken, correct me:

Jabbz claim that he did use up his last beholder charge here after catching out GES's post lastminute and he claims that he diid confirm GES's and his own power.

But notice time that GES posted: 18:00 (16:00 UTC, my clock is running 2 hours later then UTC time)

And the rule 2 of WW states: Days and nights end at 1100 CDT/1600 UTC. The forum clock is used as the official clock. Votes and actions posted at xx:59 count, votes and actions posted at xx:00 do not.

So GES posts at 18:00 and Jabbz said that he did action because he did read GES's post and used up his 3rd action to confirm both his and GES's role legitimacy. But how can Jabbz's action be valid because according rules he would be too late with his action already.

[Alhambram]

Jabbz

[Alhambram]

It is already late for me, I comes back tomorrow and shall check reactions upon my finding about end of night 3/start day 4.

[Kaiser]

Question for Kaiser then, my last post on the subject of losing the power was this: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755234
Your next post in the game was another long analysis, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755331

- Why did you ignore the point I was making?
- On your linked post, how likely do you think the scenario of:
"The wolves either planned from the beginning or decided Midway Day1 that they would try to use Lewwyn to do the heavy lifting and then lynch him later after he had managed to lynch at least one villager.
At the same time they were willing to sacrifice Commodore to gain town credit for probably at least 2 wolves and Lewwyn on Day2 so the Lewwyn train could run longer but with hopefully more collateral among the village."
is?

I remember reading it in the car on the way out and forgot to come back to it when I came back. You were right that the wolves would have needed to know about me visiting you in order to increase your credibility by me confirming your claim. 

I seem to remember someone talking about the timing potentially working out for the wolves to react quickly and just checked, there were 46 seconds (by Rowain's method) between my EoN post and Pindicators EoN post which is listed at 18:00. Brick closed the deadline at 18:06 though I am not sure how he handles PMs as it was stated in the organization thread to end at 18:00 (CEST).
I believe 46 or even 30 seconds would have been enough to write the PM to Brick to execute, but I agree that this would have need a crazy quick realization, decision and execution by the wolves.

I might have been tunneling to much on the Gaspar/GrandMaMeiz at that point in time and I realized during my walk that I need to revisit the Commodore lynch to look for other potential scum pairings, which lead to my bigger post. (The one you point out)

Regarding your second question:

• I think it very likely that the wolves decided at least Midway Day1 to use Lewwyn's thrawn trashing to set him up later. For me it is confirmed that 2 wolves voted for Lewwyn, I would need to check the exact tie-break timing, but this might have saved Gaspar that Day.
  
• I also believe it very likely that at least one wolf was distancing himself from Commodore even on Day1 already to better positioned later in the game. This is different from my position you quoted in the sense that the plan to sacrifice Commodore could have come later and they would then benefit from this early strategy.
  
• I believe it likely that the wolves were using Day1 already to create distance between each other. I can imagine Gaspar wolf distancing himself here from Commodore wolf and that is why I am not giving him town credit for Day1 like I believe you do.
  
• I think it is confirmed by now that the wolves decided to bus Commodore on Day2, the question is when? 
  
•    If it was late Day1/During Night1, you and Gaspar look bad for your early push.
  
•    If it was during Day2, Ges, Jabbz look bad.
  
•    Alhambram and me look bad anyways as we were voting Commodore as an information lynch. 
  

[Kaiser]

As I said, your vote was late and inconsequential.  Rowain is not colored with the same brush because he made it clear that he wanted to lynch Commodore all day long.  Rowain always moves his vote around a lot for pressure but usually you know where he wants to end up.

Roland is someone who played in the early WW games and got tons of town cred for long analysis posts.  He skated through a game with a flawless scum victory based on this fact.  Since then, I am very suspicious of people who post a lot of really dense analysis posts.

I have stated the reasons I think you are suspicious before Kaiser.  I am dubious on your role claim.  I see that your posts sow a lot of confusion and have a lot of fanciful theories.  And your voting history is suspect.  Mostly, its a vibe I get from you, which generally speaking, is enough for me to vote someone.

This is what I said yesterday.

Basically here is my overall thought. I think Meiz is likely village. I think Alhambram slightly less likely but still probably village. I think one of GES/Jabbz and Kaiser are the remaining scum.

I'll have to reconsider all the permutations later but thats my thinking currently.

I would love to hear your answer to my reply to your above post from yesterday, you can find my post here