WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Kaiser]

For GES's post above, I think you can make anyone look scummy when looking at the votes and ignoring the words used & tone from the posts. So I'm suspicious on how he ends up with putting Alhambram as potential scum with:

"Simp votes no lynch on D1.  Everyone thought that was odd at the time but just let it pass.  Then he makes the exact same vote as Jabbz, Omar, Doc, and Skelly on D2 and D3, so it is hard to gain a lot of information compared to others there.  Talking Dog calculated there was a 52% chance for one neighbor to be a villain in post #1,860.  Right now, pure probability for any villager says it is 40% that one of the other players is a villain, and 33% based on the share of total remaining players, so that is a significant odds increase on that basis alone, which is one reason I would tend to favor voting Simp over Jabbz."

When I'm reading the way Alhambram played D2, I do not get a feeling of him being scumbuddies with Commodore.

This is one of the reasons I feel him slightly townie, he got as much credit from voting Comm as me, basically none for joining late and with the information lynch reasoning

[Meiz]

For Rowain, was there anyone showing actual doubt on him being town after the vig shot. I remember you questioning him, but I think he was town in everyones books and that alone is a reason to kill him.

For above, do you mean this is the reason you feel Alhambram slighty towny?

[Meiz]

The reason I'm leaning more towards GES-scum is his pairing of Kaiser/Alhambram as the wolf pair. With me having individual townreads for both, I'm starting to get suspicious. A very fact/vote based reason to pair them as the last scum.

For Jabbz factual errors (and the idea of too far fetched as scum gambits), another one I forgot was his discussion regarding me losing my power. For example the end of post https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755121

"Moderate scum lean. Given that there was a scum rollblocker, it's not completely unreasonable there should be a town one. Given that there was either a town roll that hid info on death in order to pass the roll along to another townie, or a scum roll that hid information upon kill, its not impossible that town could have something similar. I find it unlikely though. If gaz's ability hid his roll so his inheritor could get that information, that ultimately helps town to some degree. It preserves the cover for the inheritor, but also puts the inheritor under suspicion. Net win somehwat for town. If the killer had an ability to hide the alignment and role, that's a solid scum role.

What Meiz is claiming is a town ability that's ultimately largely anti-town. Combined with the timing of his loss of said ability, and no one claiming the deed to this point, I find that problematic in the extreme. Should someone claim it, I'd be inclined to believe them, as scum already lost a roleblocker. This would also greatly reduce my suspicion of Meiz. Until that point he remains my most suspicious."

And https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755172
"I guess I'm thinking of stolen as taken and in possession of someone else. No big, were talking about the same thing with different words."

As scum he would probably have the info on what exactly I was targeted with, so is he making another bluff play here or is he just genuinely confused about the roles.

[Gaspar]

For me to vote for Kaiser, I would have to believe:

- He decided to indicate a check on me, while knowing I will be targeted by a most-likely scum ability, and once I announce that my power was lost, his play is to revert his claim of checking me.
To me this seems a very scum complex scenario and I find very little motivation for scum-Kaiser to pull it off. The only scenario I can imagine this working out is Kaiser being a 3rd party, while faking a check on me, thus being surprised by me actually beign targeted. But even that makes little sense, and I doubt a 3rd party exists in this game due to thrawn being traitor.

Gaspar's comment on the scenario above when I asked was that it seems very unlikely for a coordinated scum team, but possible if they are just playing individually. I find it very unlikely that wolf team would not plan their night actions together.

- After Kaiser reveals he was doing a fake check (https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754952), it prompts Bob to post & vote Kaiser, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754959
So I would have to believe that Bob decided this is the perfect opportunity to make a distancing play with scum-Kaiser. It doesn't really fit to the way I think Bob had been playing the game, more likely explanation for me being that he found a reason to justify his vote of the day.

Bob's later listing of players still has Kaiser as the clear candidate, while leaving a door open for voting me, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755144
But I would say he is very committed still on getting Kaiser Lynched. According to Rowain's post in the previous page, the votes at the time of this post are:

3 votes: Kaiser (Bobchillingworth, Gaspar, Rowain)
2 votes: Meiz (pindicator, Jabbz)

I haven't looked in detail the points GES made above on the Kaiser/Alhambram pairings, so this is based on my current feeling after my own reading.


My insticts are telling me to vote Gaspar as while his votes for Commodore & Bob are good, the way he has played the game (feel based, not digging into details) is an easy way for a wolf to hide. Active early but that's dropped heavily as the game progressed. For me his D3 was most notable, the lack of will to dig deeper into Lewwyn/Pind/Meiz drama and the attack on Cyneheard who was starting to pick up attention, and which I still think was painting him in much badder light than was necessary.

I think today is the day to see if I was somehow fooled by the mailman ability (which I still doubt unfortunately), or if I still have the day vigshot left. We need to lynch correctly today, so the shot should not end the game even if missed. I have hard time picturing Alhambram as a scum, so mostly pondering between Jabbz/GES. Leaning towards shooting GES just because it feels like Jabbz scum play would be just a strange gambit after another (D1 random vote on Commodore, misunderstanding of role and thinking of catching Rowain etc.), and not sure how likely that scenario actually would be for him to pull off. Anyone objects?  

I'm not really going to defend my activity level - this game just hasn't done it for me, so I've definitely not been as engaged as I might be if it I found it more interesting. But I don't agree with any of your other assertions. If I am scum, the only logical reason I would have voted Bob on D4 is if Meiz or Kaiser was my scum buddy. At that point, if I just don't move, its just Meiz and Rowain throwing votes around and there's no reason for me to believe Pindicator (in a blood feud with Meiz) or GES (intermittent availability at best) are jumping in to pile on.

And as far as my D3, I've explained it several times but the crib notes version is that it was obvious the day would come down to Pindicator and Lewwyn and as such, I wanted to get some exploration on other topics. Like, I do that, I get called scum. I don't contest the lynch and go with the flow, I get called scum. What would you have me do? If you're looking for me to be correct everytime, well, I'm good, but I'm not that good.

[Gaspar]

In terms of using your ability, its LyLo so if you have it you might as well. If you hit scum and we mislynch its not LyLo anymore whereas if you miss, we can still survive by lynching scum. We should probably open the target to the group, I can see the value in lynching one of GES/Jabbz and shooting the other because that's the pairing where I think we have the highest likelihood of hitting a villain.

[Meiz]

For me to vote for Kaiser, I would have to believe:

- He decided to indicate a check on me, while knowing I will be targeted by a most-likely scum ability, and once I announce that my power was lost, his play is to revert his claim of checking me.
To me this seems a very scum complex scenario and I find very little motivation for scum-Kaiser to pull it off. The only scenario I can imagine this working out is Kaiser being a 3rd party, while faking a check on me, thus being surprised by me actually beign targeted. But even that makes little sense, and I doubt a 3rd party exists in this game due to thrawn being traitor.

Gaspar's comment on the scenario above when I asked was that it seems very unlikely for a coordinated scum team, but possible if they are just playing individually. I find it very unlikely that wolf team would not plan their night actions together.

- After Kaiser reveals he was doing a fake check (https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754952), it prompts Bob to post & vote Kaiser, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754959
So I would have to believe that Bob decided this is the perfect opportunity to make a distancing play with scum-Kaiser. It doesn't really fit to the way I think Bob had been playing the game, more likely explanation for me being that he found a reason to justify his vote of the day.

Bob's later listing of players still has Kaiser as the clear candidate, while leaving a door open for voting me, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755144
But I would say he is very committed still on getting Kaiser Lynched. According to Rowain's post in the previous page, the votes at the time of this post are:

3 votes: Kaiser (Bobchillingworth, Gaspar, Rowain)
2 votes: Meiz (pindicator, Jabbz)

I haven't looked in detail the points GES made above on the Kaiser/Alhambram pairings, so this is based on my current feeling after my own reading.


My insticts are telling me to vote Gaspar as while his votes for Commodore & Bob are good, the way he has played the game (feel based, not digging into details) is an easy way for a wolf to hide. Active early but that's dropped heavily as the game progressed. For me his D3 was most notable, the lack of will to dig deeper into Lewwyn/Pind/Meiz drama and the attack on Cyneheard who was starting to pick up attention, and which I still think was painting him in much badder light than was necessary.

I think today is the day to see if I was somehow fooled by the mailman ability (which I still doubt unfortunately), or if I still have the day vigshot left. We need to lynch correctly today, so the shot should not end the game even if missed. I have hard time picturing Alhambram as a scum, so mostly pondering between Jabbz/GES. Leaning towards shooting GES just because it feels like Jabbz scum play would be just a strange gambit after another (D1 random vote on Commodore, misunderstanding of role and thinking of catching Rowain etc.), and not sure how likely that scenario actually would be for him to pull off. Anyone objects?  

I'm not really going to defend my activity level - this game just hasn't done it for me, so I've definitely not been as engaged as I might be if it I found it more interesting.  But I don't agree with any of your other assertions.  If I am scum, the only logical reason I would have voted Bob on D4 is if Meiz or Kaiser was my scum buddy.  At that point, if I just don't move, its just Meiz and Rowain throwing votes around and there's no reason for me to believe Pindicator (in a blood feud with Meiz) or GES (intermittent availability at best) are jumping in to pile on.

And as far as my D3, I've explained it several times but the crib notes version is that it was obvious the day would come down to Pindicator and Lewwyn and as such, I wanted to get some exploration on other topics.  Like, I do that, I get called scum.  I don't contest the lynch and go with the flow, I get called scum.  What would you have me do?  If you're looking for me to be correct everytime, well, I'm good, but I'm not that good.

Hmm.. I think we've been in very interesting game so far thoroguh, no obvious answers for who the scum are.

For my assertions, we can disagree and you think Kaiser indeed pulled a wolf trick to gain credibility with his fake claiming against me. Or that Bob decided now is the time to bus scum-Kaiser, even though I've just lashed at Rowain how I think he might have a part in my role loss. My best guess for the scenario is scum-Bob having some popcorn, seeing town collapsing and deciding to jump on Kaiser for a valid looking reason for the vote. I have hard time seeing why he wouldn't jump on me instead if Kaiser is his scum partner.

But another problem I have with your accusation on Kaiser is the repeating of not bying his role claim. I found it credible at the time, and on several rereads my opinion hasn't changed. We know the scum had janitor role (and I knew this as soon as I saw Gazglum's death), so I don't see where the fishyness comes from. IMO he explained his reasoning for the outing well, and his D2 fits with his vision of looking for potential scum's trying to misdirect town based on Gazglum's hidden death.

D4 is tricky, because GES had promised to follow Rowain's vote at the time only me & Kaiser were lynch candidates. So after I voted Bob and Rowain followed, it was already decided that GES would follow as well (unless he wants to break his promise). So if scum are thinking in the long run as is expected, quickly jumping to follow along is not out of the question.

[Gaspar]

I mean thats assuming a lot, Meiz.

For one, Rowain and I basically cross-posted jumping on. Also, Rowain is a known vote bouncer so if I was worried about it, the last thing I'd want to do is give him reason to stay. And re: GES, counting on him to do anything seems generous since he isn't consistently around at all.

[Jabbz]

Scenario B: (One of Kaiser and Meiz Scum)
B1. Kaiser scum, Meiz town
In this case it was a very close call and the other wolf was likely already on Meiz, probably early to pull few suspicion but also not able to shift the tally heavier against Meiz. Meiz then hit a streak of Genius targeting the lowest effort Player in the game hitting WWbob. 

Thanks for the compliments Kaiser!  

Any time, sadly it is hypothetical as the scenario is wrong due to me not being scum.

I had to take a strategical decision to narrow down my reads and have decided, that if any wolf would have earned winning this game, then it would be GrandMaMeiz. I am not sure I would be able to change the outcome anyway, so I will continue with the assumption of Meiz town from here on out.

My higest suspect is Gaspar, but Jabbz and GES feel weird with the interaction Alhambram pointed out among other reasons. I will look into this this evening, my current scum guess is Gaspar/Jabbz.

Alhambram I have a more positive feeling about, though I wanted to revisit his attack on sunrise.

Guys, please ask yourselves why Rowain died tonight, if Meiz is town, then he would have been a target at least as attractive I believe.
Who catches the most suspicion by a Rowain death?

I don't think you need to spread suspicion in order to justify a rowain kill. He was solid town for a good number of people, and pretty good at digging for scum. Taking him off the board and out of future conversations is sufficient reason to kill him.

[Jabbz]

I'm in support of you taking a shot, but if you do I think you need to be doing it nowish, so we have more time to discuss things. If the choice is between me and GES obviously I'd prefer GES. I also think putting it to a town vote is a bad idea, as that gives scum more input. If you're scum and you had the power, you would have already just used it at start of day to end the game. Therefore, if you have the ability and use it you must be town. That means your intent is 100% town, while your choice is suspect. If we put it up to the vote we don't know intent, and choice is still suspect.

Make a good call, but make it soon.

[Meiz]

If it works, it adds another 24h to the day so no rush in that sense.