WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Jabbz]

Hrm. That's pretty cool. Even you aren't sure if its going to work though. Does waiting till last second help us in some way? I don't think I'm worried much at this point that you're scum, but there is likely to be discussion on those grounds if you fail. If it happens last minute it might be used as a reason to railroad you into a fast lynch for "lying" or trying to confuse the days discussion. Your call, just want to make sure you think of the angles.

[Meiz]

Hah, we will see what happens. I'll wait input from Alhambram and I guess GES can have his say as well :D No plans to wait for last minutes or anything like that.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

For GES's post above, I think you can make anyone look scummy when looking at the votes and ignoring the words used & tone from the posts. So I'm suspicious on how he ends up with putting Alhambram as potential scum with:

"Simp votes no lynch on D1.  Everyone thought that was odd at the time but just let it pass.  Then he makes the exact same vote as Jabbz, Omar, Doc, and Skelly on D2 and D3, so it is hard to gain a lot of information compared to others there.  Talking Dog calculated there was a 52% chance for one neighbor to be a villain in post #1,860.  Right now, pure probability for any villager says it is 40% that one of the other players is a villain, and 33% based on the share of total remaining players, so that is a significant odds increase on that basis alone, which is one reason I would tend to favor voting Simp over Jabbz."

When I'm reading the way Alhambram played D2, I do not get a feeling of him being scumbuddies with Commodore.

Omar's been quite clear all game he has little use for "tone."  Tone led Weeb Fox to be certain Kardashian, Doc and Simp were villains as his last will and testament, after already mislynching Duo Puppet.  You know how you "can make anyone look scummy?"  Tone reads.  Omar's entire career says people are way too confident in their ability to "read" other people.  Omar prefers to read actions.  At least they provide something concrete to go on.

As for Simp's D2, he would generally get more credit for the lynch than Omar or Jabbz.  Without being privy to the villain comms, though, it is still impossible to know if Flip was bussed early, bussed late, or if you can even call it a bus at all if Robot, Jerry! and Flip were all villains and did not vote for Flip.  So I was pretty clear that D2/D3 were more or less null reads on Simp.  The no lynch vote D1, the D4 vote for Skelly three posts after having you as a village-lean, and the hard turn on Talking Dog, those are the things Omar relied on.  That and just the general odds calculation by Talking Dog; Omar would rather trust statistics than your tone reads after you spent the entire game making Bee-Boy miserable with your certainty, or mislynching Talking Dog, who was one of the most trusted and highest quality villagers until you had him in your sights.  

Despite that, logic tells me you are still likely a villager who I simply disagree with.  You and I have not seen eye-to-eye on how to play and read the game pretty much all game.  Omar has been suspicious to you much of the game just for an inability to be as active or play this here game in the same manner as you.
  

For Rowain, was there anyone showing actual doubt on him being town after the vig shot. I remember you questioning him, but I think he was town in everyones books and that alone is a reason to kill him.

On this, Skelly and I totally agree.  Omar would have placed odds at -1,000 that Old Tea Man would be night killed.  The entire next two days come down to the villain's ability to get one mislynch.  Old Tea Man, despite some odd shade from Jabbz and Robot, was pretty much completely un-mislynchable.  That alone would increase the pure odds of us to catch the last two villains from 8.25% to 13.3%, just by removing one possible mislynch from the pool of candidates.  This seemed so obvious Omar was shocked we did not get an eleventh hour think piece from Old Tea Man.

D4 is tricky, because GES had promised to follow Rowain's vote at the time only me & Kaiser were lynch candidates. So after I voted Bob and Rowain followed, it was already decided that GES would follow as well (unless he wants to break his promise). So if scum are thinking in the long run as is expected, quickly jumping to follow along is not out of the question.

If Omar was in court, this would be the easiest sustained objection in his entire career.  "Objection, misstates prior testimony."  "Sustained."  Omar never promised to vote with Old Tea Man.  Omar suggested that we should coordinate our votes and that I was willing to follow him.  Omar never promised to follow him.  And Old Tea Man never accepted the offer either--in fact, Omar was actively browbeaten for following through.  

Skelly, if Omar a villain, why wouldn't I follow up with Old Tea Man to see if he accepted vote coordination before voting Jerry!?  Or why wouldn't Omar just claim unavailability?  Omar actually did leave for brunch (I know, that seem like some real white people stuff from Omar, but his lady like a good frittata, you feel) and could have just peaced out?  Or better yet, why even suggest vote coordination in the first place if Omar was a villain?

My insticts are telling me to vote Gaspar as while his votes for Commodore & Bob are good, the way he has played the game (feel based, not digging into details) is an easy way for a wolf to hide. Active early but that's dropped heavily as the game progressed. For me his D3 was most notable, the lack of will to dig deeper into Lewwyn/Pind/Meiz drama and the attack on Cyneheard who was starting to pick up attention, and which I still think was painting him in much badder light than was necessary.

I think today is the day to see if I was somehow fooled by the mailman ability (which I still doubt unfortunately), or if I still have the day vigshot left. We need to lynch correctly today, so the shot should not end the game even if missed. I have hard time picturing Alhambram as a scum, so mostly pondering between Jabbz/GES. Leaning towards shooting GES just because it feels like Jabbz scum play would be just a strange gambit after another (D1 random vote on Commodore, misunderstanding of role and thinking of catching Rowain etc.), and not sure how likely that scenario actually would be for him to pull off. Anyone objects?  

Skelly, if you had voted Doc and said his most likely villain partner was Simp, Omar would have at least thought that made sense.  Doc would have been under serious threat on D5, so Simp would have needed to justify going back on his game long trust with Talking Dog, and so Doc would have basically "activated" him to go after Talking Dog.  But if you read Omar or Jabbz as Doc's villain teammate, why would either of us not have voted for Talking Dog when votes were tied at 3-3 to ensure Doc did not go down by tiebreak?  If a villain-Doc was lynched instead of Talking Dog, village odds jump from 8.25% to 37.4%.  Why would a villain Jabbz or Omar take that risk?

This logic fail makes me feel like the odds that you and Robot are in fact the villain pairing are somewhat increased based on how the day is playing out, even if that still isn't Omar's most likely combination.



Jabbz, I have no certainty if you are village or a villain, but unless something changes significantly with where the votes are at, at this point, the game is kind of in your hands.  If you stay on Robot, the tiebreaker lynches Robot.  If you move to Doc, the tiebreaker will always lynch Doc unless you move back.  If you're a villain, well, I guess you are going to win given the setup.  Congrats.  If you're a villager, just re-read the thread and do whatever you think is best.  And honestly, try not to stress.  This is just a silly forum game that we are playing for entertainment.  There is nothing of any consequence on the line.  So just enjoy the unique situation you are in and try to have fun with it.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Hah, we will see what happens. I'll wait input from Alhambram and I guess GES can have his say as well :D No plans to wait for last minutes or anything like that.

You should definitely try to shoot someone.  Our odds are pretty dire to win at this point and even if you hit a villager, it still increases our odds to win from 8.25% to 13.3% if Omar's quick math is correct, just by reducing the options for a mislynch.  

If you hit a villain, the odds jump to 40% for us to win I think, which is a massive benefit.

So it appears to be a win-win regardless of who you hit.  

Omar prefer not to get shot, but then, Omar prefer not to get hit by lightning too.  Omar figure that went without saying.  Given Omar has actually been shot on more than one occasion, he cannot say he recommends the experience.

[Alhambram]

I sent in the PM. Brick was late, and let it go through. Not that difficult to figure out.

Ah, then I did worry for nothing then, I assumed that deadline of 16:00 UTC is strict but if deadline ends when Brick says it, then nevermind.

Regarding Meiz's shoot options. I already saw at day 5 that Meiz was worried about whether he can shoot or not. I did volunteer to be shot at day 5 and my mind remains unchanged if Meiz can gain valuable information from it. In that case you better find out who 2 remaining wolves are.

I hasn't finished my rereading yet, for now Meiz and Kaiser seem towny for me, Gaspar town lean and both GES and Jabbz scumlean. But I yet has to reread everthing, but if Meiz decides to shoot me, I can stop with reading right away.

[Meiz]

For GES's post above, I think you can make anyone look scummy when looking at the votes and ignoring the words used & tone from the posts. So I'm suspicious on how he ends up with putting Alhambram as potential scum with:

"Simp votes no lynch on D1.  Everyone thought that was odd at the time but just let it pass.  Then he makes the exact same vote as Jabbz, Omar, Doc, and Skelly on D2 and D3, so it is hard to gain a lot of information compared to others there.  Talking Dog calculated there was a 52% chance for one neighbor to be a villain in post #1,860.  Right now, pure probability for any villager says it is 40% that one of the other players is a villain, and 33% based on the share of total remaining players, so that is a significant odds increase on that basis alone, which is one reason I would tend to favor voting Simp over Jabbz."

When I'm reading the way Alhambram played D2, I do not get a feeling of him being scumbuddies with Commodore.

Omar's been quite clear all game he has little use for "tone."  Tone led Weeb Fox to be certain Kardashian, Doc and Simp were villains as his last will and testament, after already mislynching Duo Puppet.  You know how you "can make anyone look scummy?"  Tone reads.  Omar's entire career says people are way too confident in their ability to "read" other people.  Omar prefers to read actions.  At least they provide something concrete to go on.

As for Simp's D2, he would generally get more credit for the lynch than Omar or Jabbz.  Without being privy to the villain comms, though, it is still impossible to know if Flip was bussed early, bussed late, or if you can even call it a bus at all if Robot, Jerry! and Flip were all villains and did not vote for Flip.  So I was pretty clear that D2/D3 were more or less null reads on Simp.  The no lynch vote D1, the D4 vote for Skelly three posts after having you as a village-lean, and the hard turn on Talking Dog, those are the things Omar relied on.  That and just the general odds calculation by Talking Dog; Omar would rather trust statistics than your tone reads after you spent the entire game making Bee-Boy miserable with your certainty, or mislynching Talking Dog, who was one of the most trusted and highest quality villagers until you had him in your sights.  

I recall Omar was not a man of blacks and whites. You can & should take a look at votes, but you also have to consider other aspects. Just ignoring what player says and focusing on how the votes could fit with scum behavior can make anyone seem like a wolf, just a matter of how you present the facts. And you are right, reads based on just tone easily follow the same logic. If you take a look at Gaspar, one of his reasons to vote Kaiser today is thinking that his role claim is fishy. He does not go on to explain what in the reveal is fishy, even when separately asked. Are you ready to bank the game on his vote record? I know I was before sunrise flipped blue and the options got thinner. Maybe now is the time to take a look at the rest of the effort from his part and for example the accusation today he's presented for Kaiser being our best bet to lynch scum. From what I can see, they are just selling mental images for Kaiser's scummy play. In fact Bob used the same type of argument in D4 against Kaiser.

Hey but thanks for keeping hammering on the suffering of Pind & sunrise. Both were heavily based on vote records as well, thinking that their avoidance of Commodore D1 is a sure tell on their guilt.

Despite that, logic tells me you are still likely a villager who I simply disagree with.  You and I have not seen eye-to-eye on how to play and read the game pretty much all game.  Omar has been suspicious to you much of the game just for an inability to be as active or play this here game in the same manner as you.

This is simply not true, I've not been on your back this game for your activity, other than very early prod of hoping to get more instant reads from you from time to time.
  

D4 is tricky, because GES had promised to follow Rowain's vote at the time only me & Kaiser were lynch candidates. So after I voted Bob and Rowain followed, it was already decided that GES would follow as well (unless he wants to break his promise). So if scum are thinking in the long run as is expected, quickly jumping to follow along is not out of the question.

If Omar was in court, this would be the easiest sustained objection in his entire career.  "Objection, misstates prior testimony."  "Sustained."  Omar never promised to vote with Old Tea Man.  Omar suggested that we should coordinate our votes and that I was willing to follow him.  Omar never promised to follow him.  And Old Tea Man never accepted the offer either--in fact, Omar was actively browbeaten for following through.  

Skelly, if Omar a villain, why wouldn't I follow up with Old Tea Man to see if he accepted vote coordination before voting Jerry!?  Or why wouldn't Omar just claim unavailability?  Omar actually did leave for brunch (I know, that seem like some real white people stuff from Omar, but his lady like a good frittata, you feel) and could have just peaced out?  Or better yet, why even suggest vote coordination in the first place if Omar was a villain?

Here's your post for reference, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755249
You're right, you did not promise, but I consider your wording pretty much the same: "I’m willing to go where you go to at least give us a village voting bloc."
It's hard for me to say if just dropping off would be a better play for scum-omar, but I think you would be looked in detail if you'd refuse to follow Rowain after the comment you made. So if looking for town credibility (which would be the idea with your original suggestion as well), not following through on it would be the opposite.

Skelly, if you had voted Doc and said his most likely villain partner was Simp, Omar would have at least thought that made sense.  Doc would have been under serious threat on D5, so Simp would have needed to justify going back on his game long trust with Talking Dog, and so Doc would have basically "activated" him to go after Talking Dog.  But if you read Omar or Jabbz as Doc's villain teammate, why would either of us not have voted for Talking Dog when votes were tied at 3-3 to ensure Doc did not go down by tiebreak?  If a villain-Doc was lynched instead of Talking Dog, village odds jump from 8.25% to 37.4%.  Why would a villain Jabbz or Omar take that risk?

This logic fail makes me feel like the odds that you and Robot are in fact the villain pairing are somewhat increased based on how the day is playing out, even if that still isn't Omar's most likely combination.

Didn't Jabbz vote for sunrise in the end, and openly tell his reason being making sure that Gaspar is preserved and sunrise hangs? I can see the argument for both trying to rescue a scum partner, or trying to stay away from a rescue move which could be looked heavily the next day and possibly allow the matching of the scumpair.

[Meiz]

I hasn't finished my rereading yet, for now Meiz and Kaiser seem towny for me, Gaspar town lean and both GES and Jabbz scumlean. But I yet has to reread everthing, but if Meiz decides to shoot me, I can stop with reading right away.

I'm not going to shoot you.

[Alhambram]

I hasn't finished my rereading yet, for now Meiz and Kaiser seem towny for me, Gaspar town lean and both GES and Jabbz scumlean. But I yet has to reread everthing, but if Meiz decides to shoot me, I can stop with reading right away.

I'm not going to shoot you.

 In that case, back to rereading then.

[Jabbz]

Didn't Jabbz vote for sunrise in the end, and openly tell his reason being making sure that Gaspar is preserved and sunrise hangs? I can see the argument for both trying to rescue a scum partner, or trying to stay away from a rescue move which could be looked heavily the next day and possibly allow the matching of the scumpair.

Correct.

Well I feel pretty confident the Isaac vote isn't going anywhere. I don't have any scum reads on Gaspar, so in order to prevent my other scum feel from swinging, I'm switching to sunrise. Unless someone switches directly from sunrise to Gaspar last minute, it should ensure he swings.

At that time my scumreads Kaiser and sunrise. I preferred kaiser, and sat on him for most of the day, but switched at the end, because if I had a choice between swinging someone I thought was scummy, and someone I thought was neutral, it was an easy decision. I was very annoyed when Rowain hopped back onto Kaiser right before the end of the day, because I would have stayed there had he done so.

[Jabbz]

Twice now I have to post this correction, because I'm an idiot.

Damn thats worded terribly. In order to make sure my other scum feel doesn't manage to get rescued. Ignore my poor prose.