WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[BRickAstley]

There have been no actions triggered that require GM resolution.

Can someone get an up to date vote tally? Apologies again but I’ll only be on mobile for today.

[Meiz]

Ok, so I was right in my assestment. If you believe I'm town, then who disabled my role:

- GES has claimed tracker, which is verified by Jabbz unless they are both scum together (unlikely)
- Kaiser has claimed backup and made an early claim of receiving Gazglum's voyer role. We know the alignment & role hiding was done by Bob's Janitor ability. I think it's unlikely for Kaiser to lie about the received role (most had not claimed their roles at the time), so I believe he has the backup role.
- Alhambram is confirmed as sunrise's neighbor. He might have a secondary ability as scum, but I think it's unlikely.
- Jabbz has claimed Beholder. No verification of the role since Pindicator revealed his protection of Rowain, while GES revealed tracking of Pindicator. Jabbz is the only person knowing if his role is true or not.
- Gaspar has claimed Bodyguard Enabler.

To me the most likely explanation is the good old doctor having the ability disabling role. Another point against Gaspar is his earlier talk of how today should be used to resolve Jabbz/GES pairing since he believes town has too many investigation roles with all being town. But he hasn't put any effort on the plan of his, just accused Kaiser of scummy play and shady role reveal, without ever going to details on why exactly the play has been shady. (despite me asking to). I think this is because Gaspar's scum partner is found between Jabbz/GES and today is the day they are going for the win.

This, together with my earlier post (https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid756409) makes me confident to keep my vote on Gaspar.

[Meiz]

Omar prefer not to get shot, but then, Omar prefer not to get hit by lightning too.  Omar figure that went without saying.  Given Omar has actually been shot on more than one occasion, he cannot say he recommends the experience.

Omar is a lucky man to be alive, congratulations!

[Meiz]

Lynch votes
3 votes: Kaiser (Gaspar, Jabbz, GES)
2 votes: Gaspar (Meiz, Kaiser)
1 votes: Jabbz (Alhambram)

[Alhambram]

I hasn't finished my rereading for 100%, but I already assumed that if shot fails, then Gaspar is most likely one with role disabling power.

And Meiz, I really hope that you are town. If you aren't then I aren't sure that I am willing to play WW with you again, too much mindf*cking with my mind if you are scum.

[Meiz]

Don't worry about it Alhambram.

[Kaiser]

Thank you for trying Meiz.

Because I feel that Omar is speaking a lot about probabilites based on wrong/misleading assumptions, I decided to have a go at them myself. To be honest, I am doubtful that calculating the percentages of random shot probabilities are worth it, as there is quite some data available to base decisions on that we are far from random shooting here as well as two players who actively work against town in a coordinated way.

I personally assume a 2 scum remaining scenario, as the scum team would have been quite small otherwise with only 3 starting scum + traitor.
Day6's lynch decision will be taken with 6 votes from 6 players
- 4 villagers having a selection of 5 players with unknown alignments (3 villagers, 2 scum)
- 2 scum trying to avoid a scum lynch with perfect information on player alignment

This means that only with a 4:2 vote the villagers can be sure that their target will be lynched.
A 3:3 vote offers the risk of a last second scum switch to a villager. It is actually more highly likely that a 3:3 vote situation will already be disadvantageous for town as the wolves know whom to target and will be able to execute quick votes in order to get the tie-breaker on their side.

Our current situation is a 3 Kaiser : 3 Gaspar scenario, ending up with a lynch of me if there should be no more movements today, as I was the first player to 3 votes.
I am town and I believe Gaspar and GES to be the wolves, so I believe that Jabbz is town.
If you have any doubt that I might be town, please consider the game state and if your vote might be helping the wolves to win the game today at 18:00.

Who do you believe to be my scum buddy and why do think I am the better vote for today?
Are the cases brought forth by GES and Gaspar convincing enough to loose the game?

If you come around and we end up lynching a wolf today, Day7 we need to hit the mark again then in a 4 town to 1 scum setup. However I believe today's decision and alignment reveal will give enough information to have a good shot at identifying the other wolf outside of GrandMaMeiz plays.
I believe Alhambram and me have anyways already closed their eyes to that possibility to increase the chances of town winning in non-GrandMaMeiz scenarios.

[Meiz]

IMO this is now a matter of if town trusts me enough. If they do, then see the role scenario I posted above, who else can disable my role than Gaspar or potentially Jabbz.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Omar prefer not to get shot, but then, Omar prefer not to get hit by lightning too.  Omar figure that went without saying.  Given Omar has actually been shot on more than one occasion, he cannot say he recommends the experience.

Omar is a lucky man to be alive, congratulations!

If you were going to target me, Omar would have preferred it worked.  Either way we would have been better off.  And while being obliterated does not sound enjoyable, an obliterated Omar could win if you had voted correctly.

Omar had date night with his partner last night so I set an early alarm to try and re-read Doc before Omar leaves for his distance-running meet-up in a few minutes.

But another problem I have with your accusation on Kaiser is the repeating of not bying his role claim. I found it credible at the time, and on several rereads my opinion hasn't changed. We know the scum had janitor role (and I knew this as soon as I saw Gazglum's death), so I don't see where the fishyness comes from. IMO he explained his reasoning for the outing well, and his D2 fits with his vision of looking for potential scum's trying to misdirect town based on Gazglum's hidden death.

D4 is tricky, because GES had promised to follow Rowain's vote at the time only me & Kaiser were lynch candidates. So after I voted Bob and Rowain followed, it was already decided that GES would follow as well (unless he wants to break his promise). So if scum are thinking in the long run as is expected, quickly jumping to follow along is not out of the question.

If this is one of your biggest issues with Doc, he did not find it credible at the time.  He mentions his doubts about this at #627 and #646 all the way back in D2 and brings it up again D3.  His post at #1,485 is still mentioning it.  Doc votes Robot rather than you which is consistent with his thoughts throughout the game.  In that same post, he mentions Jerry! as a possible villain and moves his vote there when you decide to explore that, even though it really would make no sense to do so if he is a villain.  If he does not do that, there is a pretty good chance Jerry! never dies, and that would nearly have clinched the game if Doc is a villain.

I personally do not understand why you find Robot's roleclaim so believable.  If he is a villain, he knew about the janitor role and could easily look through the wiki and come up with an unlikely village role that fits Patsy's character.  Your best argument here is that his roleclaim came early, which was risky without some additional reveals.  That gives me pause.  I do not find Doc's roleclaim as odd as you, just because he could have safely claimed Doctor or something once CIA was killed, and probably even before that.

Overall, it seems like Doc was much more engaged with the game early and has grown less so as the game has gone on.  I would generally expect the opposite pattern as a villain.  Try not to leave tracks early and become more engaged once you get closer to victory.  Omar has not played or lurked a single WW game since WW3, so Omar has no idea what a baseline Doc game should look like.  If Doc really did get busier at work or just is not enjoying the game that much, that could be villain cover, or just an honest admission.  Omar is not one to really judge people based on participation level.  Doc's content has dropped off precipitously.

Omar still think far and away Doc's most likely villain partner would be Simp based on the way the game played out.  And if you were voting Simp, I would probably switch over.  But in totality, I think Robot is more likely to be a villain than Doc, just because D4/D5 do not really make sense with the Doc as a villain, and even less sense with the Doc + Omar/Jabbz combo you theorize, especially since I can rule out one of those two combos for certain.

Omar not crazy confident, putting numbers at roughly Simp 60%-->Robot 55%-->Jabbz 35% = Doc 35%-->Skelly 15%.  Whichever way the vote goes, Omar will just hope for the best.  

It will depend on how fast and far Omar runs on whether he around at deadline.  More likely not.   Good luck.

[Alhambram]

If Jabbz turns out be role disabler, then combination of GES/Jabbz might be possible. In that case we would lose right now with current choices between Gaspar and Kaiser.