[Game Thread] WW49: Wizards and Werewolves

[Rowain]

A few comments to serdoa & ser gluma talking about munchkin-pairs.
A) the grognard can be everyone.
B) i have only adrien & pindi in the not-munchkin Camp. novice tried first to push the warlock as the alternate lynch and then needed some prodding to make a decision. Still i have currently no Intention to vote novice tomorrow.

[pindicator]

I would appeal to our local grognard now.  If you are a survivor role as I suspect you are, then clearly you can see with so much of the field cleared as town that you should work with us and hunt out the remaining scum.  Town is going to win this, be on our side!

[Lewwyn]

I think there's little chance I die tonight
so I'll try to set my thoughts right.

I don't think Gazglum is a munchkin. WK put his vote on Gazglum without having any opportunity to come back since he's also an Aussie and asleep. Could he have been bussing him and trusted Gaz to wriggle out of a lynch? Possibly, but I'm not really on board with that idea as a heavy possibility. Instead I think there is a high probability based on my read of Gaz that he is actually the Grognard and not a munchkin. It would fit with why I find him suspicious and why WK voted for him. Obviously if I were a munchkin I would know what WK thought and I would be trying to get Gazglum lynched, but A) I don't know if I'm right, B) I don't know if the Grognard has a killing ability or not and thus whether he has any real need to be lynched by the village at all. SO I don't care about Gazglum today. If we have two kills then yeah I think it's him... or novice.

Novice has a high chance at being the Grognard as well given his very close to the vest play. It works as either a survivor or an SK. There is a chance that Serdoa is a villager like me and novice saw an opportunity as scum to bus WK and get 2 clear mislynch targets as well. I rate this as another low possibility. Grognard for him is a higher possibility than munchkin and players is still very much in play. 

I think Adrien is clearly a player.

Rowain is most probably a player. I don't think he sticks his neck out so heavily as grognard.

Pindi is either a player or grognard. I can see his play being very much in line with grogarnd. he didn't immediately vote for himself for the bomb but once it was clearer that Adrienw as getting it he offered himself as well. Now grognard never wants to use it but he might want to stop anyone else from using it.

Serdoa is likely a player, but I thought that in WWW46 and I was so so wrong. The lynch points towards him.

I believe SD is a munchkin and I almost suggested we give him the bomb so that scum would have to blow themselves up, but then again I think we should lynch SD today so if we actually want to use it then we should.

I know I'm town but I understand the numbers and the math. We should lynch SD and Adrien should blow up Serdoa while I inspire him.

[pindicator]

Lewwyn, can I have the power? I'm feeling a bit more energetic after catching scum.

[pindicator]

I also have a fun idea on how i'd use it :D

[pindicator]

pindicator casts Wall of Text!



It's not often that I get to do an end-of-night post where I legitimately have a shot of being night killed, so let's make the most of it.  And if history says anything, I'm probably going to be the night kill now that I'm no longer tomorrow's lynch


Day 1 Thoughts

Now knowing that Dark Savant and Thrawn are both villagers we let the munchkins have an easy end-of-day-1.  So while Gazglum wants to pound Serdoa for this, I think the obvious question is "why would it matter so much to Serdoa if he were scum?"  I'm more interested in Gazglum's vote of Thrawn on post #252, which brings Rowain out of the lead.  However, it seems very unlikely that Rowain AND Gazglum are on a team together because of what transpired at the end of day 2.

So who do we really need to look at here?  Thrawn and Dark Savant are the ones who were at the top for most of the latter half of day 1.  Scum are pretty free here, so I think they are the ones not heavily engaging.  This is all after the novice-Rowain and Lewwyn-rowain fighting that went one in the first half of the day.  After thrawn gets pushed up over Rowain, Lewwyn moves to Dark Savant and then says nary a peep.  Serdoa is still very active here, as is Novice.


Yesterday's Late Push

There was a lot of cross posting at the end here, so it's hard to say who exactly meant to vote when.  I think it's fair that we caught scum flat footed and would bet there was very little scum activity in the last flurry of votes.

Non-WarriorKnight Voters

Lewwyn, are you well?  You are not yourself again at the end of day 2.  After putting your target in the lead you just kind of ... disappear.  And yet you are lurking there, watching, as #731 shows us.  Yet I'm not convinced this is the Lewwyn I've buddied up to in recent games.  That Lewwyn is not content with just getting his target in the lead.  He keeps working.  Especially when there is a second train going on that would put his guy off the lead!  Instead Lewwyn clams up while the Warrior Knight push happens.  Look, clearly my Lewwyn + Dark Savant post was not correct, but ignore that and read my suspicions of him outside of that.  He is not acting like Lewwyn.  He is not making great cases, I don't see how he gives Gazglum his power on night 1 while saying he thinks Gazglum is town but then when he builds his case against Gazglum says he found him suspicious.

I've already pointed out my suspicions of him buddying up to me and calling me town Night 1 only then to unabashedly attack me day 2.  There's no indecision, no waffling between the two stances.  I was town when I was on his side (and being pushed by other people), but as soon as I called him out I became scum.  I was convinced a little by the shift to prose to push Gazglum more, but perhaps he just thought he needed to do it to get traction.

Serdoa seems the most town of the lot to me.  He's been in attack mode all game long, which he only hit in WW46 after realizing I was the SK and he had someone to actually hunt.  I don't blame him for building a case against me.  You can say that the timing of his vote on me at the end of day 2 looks bad now, but think back what we were all thinking before WarriorKnight flipped.  Town felt kind of adrift, like we were still shooting in the dark.  I think Serdoa is the towniest of the non-WK voters.

Superdeath - the only thing not making me want to jump on Superdeath right away is that it's freaking superdeath and he just does his own thing.  It's time for him to engage like he did at the end of WW46.  He was key in getting town their win, vig shots and all.

Gazglum - When Gazglum retired for the day, he was on novice and novice was in the lead (though barely as we were very scattered).  Feels safe to say that Gaz+Novice are not a scum pair.  Gaz+Lewwyn is interesting in that I don't see how the attack from either one on each other really materialized.  But it seems more likely this was Lewwyn starting it and then Gaz attacking back once he was targeted.  I'd still wager Serdoa + Gazglum is town on town fighting here.

WarriorKnight Voters

That said, I also think it's possible one could have jumped on for cover.  NOTE: I still give a lot of town points for the people who voted WK, I'm just saying that if we exhaust the non-WK voters and find there's still scum then we need to revisit those that jumped on WK.  AdrienIer I think is solid town because of his joining me on WK initially followed by then joining Rowain.  Novice jumping in at the end after saying he didn't like the WK vote, then hedging that he liked him over the field is my prime suspect.  Why risk a 50/50 when you can bus at the end and get the town credit for nailing him yourself?  Again, he gets town points for doing it, but it can't be ignored that there are very plausible scum reasons for his vote.

Rowain is a very slight question mark here.  I can see it being possible that he jumps on WarriorKnight after everybody leaves, and then is caught surprised when AdrienIer joins and I come back and vote WK again.  However, I'd still think Novice more likely.  Rowain's posting in day 2 felt better to me, and his posts just now echo what I'm thinking.


Simplest Explanation


AdrienIer said it best yesterday: the most likely and simplest explanation is that there was a lot of town-on-town fighting this game and scum has just sat back and watched it unfold.  We now know that there were 2 town up at the block at the end of day 1, so I don't see how Gazglum can try and damn Serdoa for his thrawn vote there.  So we're looking at people who sat back towards the end of the day: Lewwyn + Superdeath.


Lewwyn really should be the target tomorrow.  He's just not Lewwyn to me.  That whole sitting out the late Warrior Knight push is so not Lewwyn, him being so certain in his reads: people are town or scum, there's no inbetween.  That is just so different from what Lewwyn has played lately to me.  However, Superdeath is a good choice as well because that would explain Tarkeel's death night 1 a bit more since Tarkeel was on superdeath and was the only one voting him at the end.  So actually, I'll go with either superdeath or Lewwyn tomorrow.


If I live the night I'll go back through WarriorKnight a bit closer.


Personal note: I think my personal stress is related to just having to defend so much every game that I've gotten a bit overly sensitive to it.  As soon as WK flipped it was like a weight was lifted off me. Yes I led (co-led, AdrienIer helped bring me back!) a charge that caught a munchkin but in addition I knew I no have to face attacks over the minutae of my posts any more.  So I think I need to take a few weeks away from WW after this game to re-center.  Apologies to all, scum and town and grognard alike, for being so dramatic this game.  These are supposed to be fun and I know I have diminished the fun for all with my outbursts.

[Commodore]

Deadline.

You all danced around the dangerous item a bit, but when the monk stepped forward as a volunteer, well, sure. 
Loot Tally as of 12:00 CDT 10/30/2020

6 AdrienIer (Superdeath, Gazglum, Rowain, AdrienIer, Serdoa, Lewwyn)
2 Pindicator (Pindicator, Novice)

"Okay, guys, next up, we have an ogre, and...where's Gazglum?"

You all look at the abandoned character sheet. At least you can see if he was min-maxing...

Waitaminute.

WHO WRITES THEIR CHARACTER SHEET IN ESPERANTO?

Welcome, Gazglum, you are a .
Paladin: Sacrifice- You may at any time choose to designate a target to sacrifice yourself for. If the target would be killed, you are instead. Dying due to the sacrifice gives no alignment information on yourself.

[Commodore]

Day 3 begins

[novice]

Nice bodyguarding, Gazglum.

I'm so happy, the first Gazglum case in years !

I don't agree with it, but you can't have it all.

What's wrong with it? I think in particular the part that I've left in in this quote was good:

At the end of Day 2, after saying Night 1 that Rowain and I were the two people he did not see himself voting for, Serdoa made an opportunistic vote on me once Lewwyn and WarriorKnight had laid hte groundwork. He said, among other things, that I had been over the top in refusing the scroll from Novice and Lewwyn. 

Which, fine if he genuinely thought it scummy, except this had already happened Night 1! And after that whole discussion had ended, Serdoa had put me in his town-leans as one of the three people he did not suspect of being a munchkin:

I'm fine with Tarkeel, that is someone I do not see myself voting tomorrow indeed, partly because I like what he writes, partly because I have no feel for him yet. 

Basically, I consider superdeath, DS, Adrien, WK, Lewwyn, novice and pindi as my most likely votes tomorrow and rather have none of them have the scroll. I especially don't want to give SD and DS more reason not to participate. I don't have the same reluctance about the others, I am pretty sure every one of them will be active, no matter if they have the scroll or not. I just suspect them being munchkins. 

(And yes, I realize that this leaves only Tarkeel, Rowain and Gazglum. I'm not a very trusting person...)

So Day 2, Serdoa is retroactively making a case he did not believe in at the time, because with the Lewwyn and Warriorknight vote, it now looks like I might hang.

Serdoa

[Tarkeel]

I've been following pretty closely, so no worries about me having to catch up on a few hundred posts. There are some points I want to adress first:

Serdoa, thank you for this post:

Also, I've gone back and looked at Tarkeel. Realized he had voted superdeath on D1. Remembered that SD vigged everyone in 46 for flimsy reasons, the first player was Cyneheard and the reasoning "He voted for me" IIRC, so maybe SD did the same here / convinced his team-mates to do it? I don't see there being much more than that. He played fine and we actually agreed on quite a few players looking bad (Adrien comes up here again, but he also had DS, SD, pindi, thrawn as his 5 top suspects). But except for SD he really had no one singled out. 

At night, he insisted that he believed I'm having some way to cheat death but else made again no posts I can see that are especially damning on anyone. 

And he had "Entangle" as a power, being able to stop someone from using his role-powers. I don't think it helps us to know if and against whom he used it, so while I'd be happy to bring him back for a day, just to have a voice of reason, there might be better targets. Or not, when I think about it. If we lynch a villager today and lose one at night, we are down to 8, with just 4 villagers left. That means we could be close to losing already and might not even have another night to use it. Something to think about at night.

It's strange that nobody else has tried to pick up on this thread, I even left a pretty obvious thread for you:

That druid is also looking like he could be skating by. Druids in Yggdrasil were basically clerics that took their healing power from nature instead of from a deity. Not to mention, the undead and nature dont really like each other much.

I am so  not-sorry for getting some hibernation in, we wouldn't want to get your bones entangled in the free flow of nature, now would we? On the contrary, this force of nature has it's sight set on some arcane mischief in the happening. If anyone is skating it's Cacofonix over there making my ears bleed or the confused Grand-not-a-wizzard.

Just so it's clear, I entangled our warlock the first night.

Tarkeel I haven't fully decided
whether his superdeath crusade is good
he says he has an innate feeling
but its not clear what's behind the hood
I say this in part because superdeath
has seemed much like himself
but the last that he was himself
I wanted to lynch him then too.

---

I'm not sure what I can do to prove my suspicions
but I find a great many people are not willing to weigh in
Tarkeel avoids the issue, Adrien can't tell,
Superdeath isn't clear, and novice you as well?
You seem to be holding back, not willing to invest fully
you've argued with him, but never voted with yours truly.

Lewwyn, this just-before-deadline accusation is perhaps the most munchkin-behavior I've seen: attacking and misrepresenting someone whom (if you're munchkin) you know won't be unable to defend themselves. That might be why you're not so keen on this spirit returning to haunt you? Or were you thinking you would be night-killed, like Pindi's late post right now? You give no indication that way though.

I would appeal to our local grognard now.  If you are a survivor role as I suspect you are, then clearly you can see with so much of the field cleared as town that you should work with us and hunt out the remaining scum.  Town is going to win this, be on our side!

The survivor only wins if they are alive, so they would have to being night-killed by the munchkins. The best way to do that (as I see it) is to actively go for mis-lynches, while not being so annoying about it that you're lynched yourself. It's a very narrow edge to walk.