[Game Thread] WW49: Wizards and Werewolves

[AdrienIer]

It's more that the US is doing it on a different week than the EU

[Commodore]

It's more that the US is doing it on a different week than the EU

I know, messed up, ain't it?

[novice]

This is what my other question is referring to, Serdoa:

Now, is that probable? No clue. But I see hardly a reason why scum would try to kill Rowain. I can see them refraining from Adrien due to what Gaz posted. But between Rowain, pindi and novice, you choose Rowain for two reasons:

- novice is scum himself
- you don't 

Which leads to my thoughts above.

You hardly see a reason why scum would try to kill Rowain. The only reason scum kills Rowain instead of me, is if I'm scum.

That is a surprising sentiment from someone who says my play has been anti-town the whole way.

So again, why can you see no reason that scum would kill Rowain over me?

[Tarkeel]

We don't have any reason to doubt you're being honest with us, Tarkeel.

So you don't think a Serdoa/Superdeath or a Serdoa/Lewwyn pairing is likely? Why not? Or do you just feel that Serdoa is town?

On phone, so this will be slightly short. It's mainly a gut feeling at this point that started at D1 and nothing I've seen after indicates those pairs. Serdoa might be a munchkin, but the only partner that makes sense then is Adrien, with a superb fake feud and silencing.

Your play on the other hand has been strange since the start. As I've said before you seem more interested in wedging open existing conflicts than investigating and probing. It's almost as if you know that you're alone.

[Serdoa]

Ah ok. The point I tried to make is in the if-case that you are not scum. In that case I would indeed expect scum to nightkill you over him, because to them it should look much more like you are confirmed town due to your WK-vote then it actually looks to us townies. 

Basically: I believe your play was anti-town (as in: not helping town; not as in: against town... I should not have shortened it like that, but I thought with all my other write-up it should be clear what I am getting at...). But I know that when you play wolf, you simply take your knowledge into account, if you want or not. You are surprised about the ridiculous things villagers do or believe, because to you it is obvious that the thought they are pursuing is not correct. Basically: It is very hard to predict what others will do based on incomplete information when you yourself have the full information, even if you try to take into account that they do not.

So, in gist:

- I believe your play was not aimed at helping town throughout the game.
- I believe that scum would predict that town would read you as town after you jumped on WK

That scum chose Rowain over you as nightkill indicates to me that you were not deemed a valid target. And that is either because you are scum yourself, potentially together with Lewwyn, or they did try to kill you but didn't succeed because you are x-time-bullettproof (probably once) and therefore the Grognard and you did the kill on Rowain (which makes more sense for you personally, as you had clashed with him before in this game).

[novice]

Ok, I see what you're saying.

[novice]

Serdoa might be a munchkin, but the only partner that makes sense then is Adrien, with a superb fake feud and silencing.

This is just baffling by the way, I see nothing that precludes a Serdoa Lewwyn pairing or a Serdoa Superdeath pairing.

[novice]

Serdoa, as you're the only player making any effort, do you have any new insights on the rest of the players? Did you look at the other WK voters' day two and conclude they must all be town?

[Rowain]

@you asked sd to go and vote for scum.
Whom should sd vote for?

Why did you see lewwyn as town?

[Serdoa]

novice, regarding your post about why I can't be paired with the other two remaining players: Why don't you lay down your case why you think I am? That's what I mean when I say your are unhelpful to town. You ask questions that make sense, but you are not trying to give your own thoughts or explain what you think.

See, your post just now. You ask me to tell you my stance - why don't you tell us yours for once as well? 

Also, I think I pretty much already did so in all those posts I wrote: I think there is no reason to believe that not every single one of the WK-voters can also be the Grognard - especially as we have no clue what role that is. Talking only about the 2 scum and taking into account - as you mentioned yourself - that scum would have been close to winning if they had gotten us to mis-lynch someone yesterday, none of the other 3 seems to have a reason to go for WK at the point they did.

Rowain: Did bring WK back when no one voted anymore for him.
Adrien: Put the second vote on WK and made him a possibility AND had been on him before.
pindi: Made the case on WK, move to Gaz while going into a meeting and jumped back on WK as voter no. 3 when the meeting was earlier over. No reason to do that, he could simply have claimed to have been in the meeting.

I thought about a Rowain + Adrien + WK scum team that busses WK to gain town-cred. But again, that is just so convoluted to achieve basically nothing. If we had mislynched Gaz the obvious targets would be Lewwyn and I, not one of them. Maybe SD as a scape-goat that everyone can agree to (hey, look, basically like today...).

So, within Lewwyn, SD, you and me has to be 2 scum in all likelihood. I'm not one, so the question is: Which two of you three are it? 

SD: Plays like SD. His role-claim pretty much gets him lynched but he doesn't think about that. And I don't believe that is because he is somehow super-townish about it, but that it simply is not in SDs nature to think about that implication.

Lewwyn: Is basically not playing. I can't believe Lewwyn doing so, except when he thinks that is his best course of action to stay alive. And trying to stay alive over hunting scum means that he probably is scum himself. 

novice: Well, I said my piece before, right?

Now, your turn novice.