American Politics Discussion Thread

[MJW (ya that one)]

Pretty spicy election so far

I'm sure DEMs will win in 2024 and then win Texas in 2028 and GOP will stop being viewed a viable party.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-ZwOfaTMBc

GOP lost AZ and DEMs came within 6 pts within TX.

[Jowy]

Had to take a sleep break Trump claiming victory and going to Supreme Court to stop vote counting before the Democrat mail-in votes are counted. All according to the script for maximum

[Gustaran]

That's one upside of being European: You can go to sleep and when you wake up again, you are just in time for the final phase of the election. 

My favourite headline so far:

North Dakota legislature candidate who died from COVID-19 wins election

[MJW (ya that one)]

That isn't very uncommon in American politics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Unite...n_Missouri

[Miguelito]

Wait so if Trump had died from Covid he'd still be on the ballot?

[Gustaran]

It seems so, but it looks like the whole issue of a candidate dying is a bit complex:

https://www.vox.com/21502447/trump-biden...at-happens

[Charriu]

Basically another element in which the constitution needs an update. But so far USA has reliably pressed "Remind me later" on every update promp.

[Cyneheard]

Wait so if Trump had died from Covid he'd still be on the ballot?

Oh yeah - keep in mind that many of the ballots were printed in September. And because the Electoral College casts their ballots at a later date, what would happen is the GOP would figure out who they wanted to be President (almost certainly Pence, but nothing would legally obligate them to choose him), and if they chose Pence as President, then whoever they want to be VP.

ANOTHER crazy American wrinkle: If the Electoral College doesn't give a victory to any candidate (like a 269-269 tie), then the election goes to the House of Representatives. And instead of each House MEMBER getting a vote (which would be a Dem/Biden win), each House delegation for a state gets together, and collectively cast one vote for the state (ties are possible). The GOP had a majority in enough states to win that vote before the election, and almost certain the House didn't see enough movement to the Dems for them to get that. But that's only for President - the Senate then votes on the Vice President, and the GOP is also likely to have a narrow majority there (Georgia is going to have at least one runoff, and I'm not sure about the timing there).

But this is going to be a roller coaster here for the next few days at least. We've got 6 states that are still uncertain right now (NV, MI, WI, PA, NC, GA; AZ appears to be comfortable enough for Biden) - almost any 3-3 split gives Biden a win (only exception is NC/WI/NV for Biden, as a 269-269 tie), or PA + one of MI, NC or GA.

Assuming that every ballot is counted (Trump has made noises against this but hasn't done anything as of 6AM EST on Wednesday), I think Biden wins at least NV/MI/WI, but it's not obvious and there will likely be recounts in some of those states.

[Cyneheard]

Basically another element in which the constitution needs an update. But so far USA has reliably pressed "Remind me later" on every update promp.

The problem is that we made our Constitution really hard to modify. That's had its advantages at times, but is definitely problematic now. 2/3 of each House and 3/4 of the states can't agree that "apple pie is delicious". Realistically, a Constitutional amendment that one party is even ambivalent about won't be approved, and that means anything that changes how power works in Washington will never go through. So any "updates" to the system need to work around the Constitution (like how the National Popular Vote compact tries to functionally replace the EC with a Popular Vote system, but would still formally use the Electoral College).

And if Biden wins, he's going to have get the GOP to agree with him on basically anything he wants to do, since the Senate is almost certainly going to be narrowly GOP for the next two years. And politically the GOP's incentives are aligned with "Well, Biden's president and he isn't fixing everything, so blame him for our stubbornness!" Divided government has miserable incentives for good behavior.

If Trump pulls this out, what happens also depends a LOT on whether this is seen as legitimate but like 2016 with disappointment/disbelief on the left, or if it's seen as stolen (either significant issues with mail delivery come out, or a SCOTUS ruling that is ridiculous seem the most likely paths here). Either way, he's going to be trying to implement his agenda, such as it is, through the Courts and the Executive Branch, since he won't have the House. For a party that literally didn't create a platform in 2020, that's probably acceptable for them, but should be trouble for the country.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Well it looks like Biden wins. GOP should win GA-R and GA-S but I'm not confident after that crazy night. I put them into both Lean R.