American Politics Discussion Thread

[Cyneheard]

In all seriousness and popcorn aside, I think the world's population has a vested interest in there not being a civil war in a nation with enough nuclear weapons to exterminate most human life.

I see people on the internet entertaining the idea of a US civil war surprisingly often (also Cyneheard above), but how would that work actually? I can somehow imagine the states mobilising their national guards against reach other,  but ultimate wouldn't it require the military and intelligence services at federal level you somehow split? Else they'd just crush whatever side they up opposed to,  and what remains are maybe some guerrilla/ terrorist groups, but not really an outright war? of course it would be nasty enough.  But from the US military's organizational structure,  is such a split feasible?

Yep, "civil war" is being thrown around a little too loosely, I need to be more precise, and you're right that's not the way this would end. Well, keep in mind that the police are incredibly pro-Trump (e.g., 800 NYPD donors were 69% to Trump, 31% for Biden. NYC is going to be like +40 to +60 for Biden). The military is a little less clear. "Violent responses to civil unrest" (think Belarus right now) was more plausible than the 1861 US Civil War.

But I will also say I think secession has entered the Overton Window - there's a non-zero chance over the next 10-20 years of that.

[Nicolae Carpathia]

In that case, the police are already there: the NYPD had a regularly scheduled riot just earlier, storming the streets and beating people randomly.

[Nicolae Carpathia]

FYI, if you are hopping mad that Donald Trump is on track to lose the presidential election, then you are a fucking rube.

If you are McConnell or any of the hard right ideological reptiles from the Heritage Foundation, then you are plenty pleased. You have gotten everything you have ever wanted. Enshrined regressive tax rates. Conservative supermajority in the Supreme Court, continued GOP control of the Senate. Roe v Wade won't get around to be overturned (you're gonna have to turn out a 7-2 SC first, get to the polls you maggots). A constant flow of wealth and power to the billionaire upper class that makes up their dark money donors. No Covid relief package that goes to the population. No way to respond to the climate catastrophe. Partisan gridlock that will guarantee a retaking of the house in 2022 and some other frothing fascist beats Harris in 2024 (either Donald Trump again, or if he's too lazy, his idiot son). 

The big winners are, of course, corporations. Wall Street are thrilled that Biden is both president and completely hamstrung. Welcome to this new reality. America is irrevocably broken. There is no repairing this.

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020...451675303c

[suboptimal]

Also they're talking election fraud and voter IDs again. I've touched this before,and at the risk of eurochauvinism, I l'dike to ask again what the US folks would think of this model (like it? feasible?)

1. Every citizen gets photo ID from the state,  free of charge if poor (orjust for everyone,  easier)
   
2. Every citizen is automatically registered to vote (exceptions for felons etc). Before election,  every citizen is notified by mail or some electronic communication about their options to exercise their voting right
   
3. The state issued ID has to be used to verify the ballot. Bit difficult with mail in votes but there can surely be found a way
   

I understand that the union/ states apparently don't really know how many citizens there are,  so that might be a problem,  but not unsolvable,  I'm sure the NSA can tell.
Particularly interested in the opinion of the more leftie/ conservative posters .

This already sort of occurs.  Everyone that drives has a photo ID through the state agency that regulates drivers' licenses.  If you don't drive you'd still go to that agency for an "official" photo ID.  There are also federal picture ID's, such as passports and Global Entry ID cards.  There is no nationalized photo ID card system and I think that people on all sides of the political spectrum would have various objections to instituting one.  Likewise, there are no state-level compulsory photo ID requirements.

As for (2), voter registration and updating is quite easy - it can be done in conjunction with (1) in many places and the USPS asks you if you'd like to register (or update) if you file a change of address.  I don't know about other states, but in NJ (in non-COVID times) all registered voters receive a sample ballot via mail about 2 weeks before any election.  This ballot is clearly marked as a sample ballot, it's designed to appear exactly as the selection panel on the voting machines, complete with instructions, and informs you where your polling location is and what time it will be open.

(3) only occurs (in NJ, anyway) when your day-of signature doesn't sufficiently match the signature in the polling book in the view of the poll worker.

[Commodore]

Also they're talking election fraud and voter IDs again. I've touched this before,and at the risk of eurochauvinism, I l'dike to ask again what the US folks would think of this model (like it? feasible?)

1. Every citizen gets photo ID from the state,  free of charge if poor (orjust for everyone,  easier)
   
2. Every citizen is automatically registered to vote (exceptions for felons etc). Before election,  every citizen is notified by mail or some electronic communication about their options to exercise their voting right
   
3. The state issued ID has to be used to verify the ballot. Bit difficult with mail in votes but there can surely be found a way
   

I understand that the union/ states apparently don't really know how many citizens there are,  so that might be a problem,  but not unsolvable,  I'm sure the NSA can tell.
Particularly interested in the opinion of the more leftie/ conservative posters .

As suboptimal said, the baseline is pretty simple and similar to what you've outlined, driver's licenses are *fairly* universal. Fraud is of course ubiquitous depending on the municipality (Detroit having some two thousand dead people on its voting rolls, etc) but it usually doesn't get a lot of national attention, because in a general election that usually doesn't mean much. It does mean city machine politics are hilariously corrupt in places, but, again, doesn't matter in a huge continent-sized election. The current drama about counting is to see if total differences are down to where that margin of fraud actually matters on the national outcome.

[Charriu]

I'm surprised that nobody mentioned the biggest problem with ID in USA:

[Old Harry]

I'd be interested to know where you're getting your info about fraud Commodore? My understanding is that it essentially doesn't happen (like a few hundred votes out of 140 million according to someone on a fivethirtyeight podcast) but is a useful excuse to make voting harder for poor people.

[Old Harry]

I'm surprised that nobody mentioned the biggest problem with ID in USA:

Charriu! You're famous!

[DaveV]

It's a huge step between saying there are dead people on the voting roll and alleging that someone is fraudulently showing up to cast votes in a dead person's name. Evidence of the latter happening is extraordinarily rare.

[Commodore]

It's a huge step between saying there are dead people on the voting roll and alleging that someone is fraudulently showing up to cast votes in a dead person's name. Evidence of the latter happening is extraordinarily rare.

Exactly, which is why normally it's not much of a deal. The old trick was actually not "cast vote in dead person's name" (blessed William Bradley, voting while dead since 1984, a rare exception) but "claim ballots that don't overly stretch the credibility of this district's turnout". Won't matter unless you have an election down to the hanging chads level. It's like an IRS audit, if you are in any business above lemonade stand, they will find problems. Voting irregularities occur in every county, ward, and district all the time, but it's just noise typically.

As an aside, mad props to Florida for actually figuring out how to count votes over the last twenty years, I haven't heard much controversy in the counts there at all.