[SPOILERS] Chevalier Mal Fet and Marcopolothefraud lead a Soviet Down Under

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I'd be thrilled to land either Norway or Phoenicia, honestly. I think all 3 with Australia should have been the first 3 civs taken, honestly. +50% bonus to building the most important units in the game, married to pillage bonii/settler expansion? Hard to justify passing those up (Australia's coastal housing bonus and easy appeal-based adjacencies are the only real contender). One will almost certainly be taken, but I figure I've got about a 33% shot at the other. 

England...I'm less sold on. I don't want to play England, since I've done it twice already, but it might be the best option. Either them or the Dutch...and still maybe the Ottos. Need to write up the dark horse possibilities.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

The Team of ljubljana and Woden formally select the civilizations of the Vikings and Phoenicia for this game!

bummer.  

Now I'm stuck deciding between England, or choosing an overall strong civ. Hmm....GOtta think. Open to ideas.

[marcopolothefraud]

In particular, a Phoenicia-Norway team most likely won't do so well. 

Well, someone clearly disagrees with me. Who's going to prevail, the opinion of one noob or the opinions of Woden, Ljubljana and Kaiser (to some degree)?

Finally, that brings us to England. Up front, the fact that most of their abilities don't come online until the Industrial age is a huge weakness. The game is usually decided before factories and power matter. Especially with Australia, this makes a poor pairing. The bonus coal and iron just doesn't seem like it will ever be relevant.

Victoria's ability is decent, but not game-breaking. You want to get your RNDs down as early as you can - which means that your strongest ship is likely a galley or a quadrireme. Figure you'll found about 10 cities over the course of the game, MAYBE 15 if it goes long - that's probably like 5 free galleys, 5 quads, and 5 caravels or frigates. Over the lifetime of the game, Harald and Dido will both get more out of their production abilities. 

The only real saving grace is the Royal Navy Dockyard. It's a bit more military focused than the Cothon - it generates more gold to help pay for those ships, it grants +1 movement to all ships, and has double GA point generation. With first strike being critical to victory at sea, those are not insignificant bonuses. I dunno, though, England has been nerfed again and again since it was only "decent" at release, and the only real buff since has been getting the free naval unit - the free melee unit ability, already niche, has been nerfed.  Madness. 

Poor England . I agree that England-Australia would make a bad team, and we need someone who will peak in the early game to help defend Australia. Someone who peaks in the Ancient Era, because even Classical Era units may be too late to turn the tide.

Maori - banned. Would be very nice.
Greece - Not good on a water map.
Egypt - Weak choice, even if it wasn't a water map. The Maryannu Archer is 90 production, and has 25 melee strength/35 ranged strength. I could see this as potentially spammable? Keep in mind that it would only be 18 ranged strength against naval units, which isn't enough against 30 strength Viking Longships and 35 strength Phoenician Biremes.
Sumeria - Weak choice, even if it wasn't a water map.
Aztec - It usually peaks in the Ancient Era on a land map, but would peak later on a naval map. The Eagle Warriors are too expensive to use anyway. 


Nubia - sigh. This is unironically a good idea, and better than England in my book.

Longships are ridiculously cheap, too. With conscription, they cost NO maintenance, meaning you can spam them to no end from your cities - I'd have my coastal cities churning them out all the time, honestly. Expensive to upgrade, but you don't have to ever upgrade them - their role is to pillage and harass, not to fight! No one can really catch or stop them until Caravels come online (with one exception, which I'll get to). With Maritime Industries and Harald's bonus, they only cost 22 production! A decent city can kick the little buggers out in 1-2 turns, meaning by turn 70 you could have more than 10 of them swarming around, descend on a coast en masse, pillage the hell out of it, and withdraw. 

There is one counter to this strategy: If a military unit is present on a coastal tile, it cannot be pillaged. That means that all I need to do is spam something cheap - Scouts (30 production), Warriors (26.7 production with the Agoge card), or Archers (40 production with the Agoge card). Scouts and Warriors are sitting ducks for Quadriremes (25 ranged strength), and so are Archers (they defend with 15 melee strength and attack with 8 ranged strength against ships).

The Nubian Pitati Archer are 31.1 production with Agoge and Nubia's bonus to ranged production. (70 production, multiplied by 2/3, and multiplied by 2/3 again.) Against ships, they defend with 17 melee strength and attack with 13 ranged strength. Quadriremes, which cost 60 production with the +100% production policy card, only have a range of 1, while Pitati Archers have a range of 2. I can envision a pitched battle between 3 Quadriremes and 8-10 Pitati Archers, and I will need to test out who will win in this battle of attrition. 

No, wait, the answer's too obvious. The two other teams, who get to build infrastructure in peace, would win this battle. It frustrates me immensely that all we can do is bet on the 2 in 3 chance that we won't be their immediate neighbor. More likely, The Black Sword will put us all in a square-shaped position...then we would want to be their diagonal neighbor, and that's only a 1 in 3 chance.

Nevertheless, Nubia would be the best defense system against Norway-Phoenicia. I truly, truly hope they can defend all of Australia's sitting ducks with their swarms of Pitati Archers. They also have a +20% production bonus to districts, though I can't quite say how useful this ability is.

[Kaiser]

A good defensive strategy against this is avoiding settling on the shores, but with Norway you also do not want to improve the shores or build districts there. Gone is the Australia advantage.

Woden and Ljubljana were able to pick the early game wombo combo, I am not sure I have seen games where Woden rushes but this is the game they probably should. So let us have a look at what they likely want to pull off.



a. They come with a +5 CS and +1 Movement advantage,
b. Both will have +50% on these units.
c. On top of that Poenicia will get Harbors down as early as possible, so starting the race for GA quickly.
d. Phoenicia will be near unassailable by see thanks to the full healing inside city borders for Naval units.

I do not think a land based CIV will be able to defend against a dedicated rush from these two besides avoiding the shores near completely.
The best shot would likely be with Ottomans, but you have to hold out until catapults and these two will be quickly onto their neighbors. Catapults are the first standard unit capable of putting up a fight with their boats, but their are a bad trade (120 , only Ottoman 50% bonus available, means you still have to invest 80 roduction to defend against 20 boats)

Protecting shore improvements for 1-2 turns with 30 + investments is not worth it and will set you back significantly even if you only have to defend a couple. I fear that it means you either do not settle/improve shore at all or you need a strong naval defense and preferably a bay with a choke. They basically neutralized the pro's of Australia with their pick.
I assume here that Norway can attack the units on the protected tile but I actually need to test this, but even just for occupying that would be a big sink. The best bet would probably be delaying Archery and placing Slingers on the tiles.

Apart from hoping to not be their neighbor of choice, I believe the only counter strategy left is getting (any, better Vicky) England and try to outrush them to Celestial Navigation, get RND's down and try to outrush them on the GA.
With a GA England has at least the same CS and +1 movement until they get a GA themselves. Mind though that this is a defensive measure as it will mostly have to be used to defend and you need to still invest a lot more into than them (roughly 10 per boat, they will get their boats out more quickly, but 10 is not too much, blocks one military slot permanently though)

To be honest I would be surprised if Suboptimal does not pick Vicki here, they have the same issue. Japan is a bit better off due to its CS bonus being a great boon against this, they are basically equal on coastline fights in CS and their Archers will shoot back with 18 CS, Crossbows with 28. Combined with DoF that will mean they can defend at least one player with a land based ranged force when rushing to Crossbows.

Maybe there is a point looking into the CIVs giving CS bonusses to get a better shot at a land based defence as well.
- France -> +3 due to higher intel level
- Mongolia -> needs a trade route, will be plundered -> no
- Mapuche -> depends on them being in a GA, likely
- America ->+5 when defending own continent, depends heavily on map setup but I think it likely to assume that you two will be on the same continent

MYC are great and fully worth the 90 especially as it results in cheaper Crossbow upgrade later, but they will not turn the tide here either as their mobility helps, but they still only fight back at 18 CS with the help of a GA.
Nubia is better for this than Egypt, but I do not think it the way to go here as Pitati will not be able to fight back in a relevant way either. Immortals would at least be less of a run over if the Longships can attack them on shore tiles.

Maybe outrushing Indonesia and Japan to DoF can be a solution, albeit a late one until you have the religion in all your cities. 
- Russia?
- China with a fast Stonehenge? Crouching Tigers fight comparatively back as Catapults but are 40 ore expensive

[Kaiser]

Ok I checked, coastal raids work against Improvements, districts and civil units. A military unit on the tile will prevent its raid and is cannot be attacked outside of a ranged ability, so earliest with Quadrireme's.
That means placing cheap units in coastal tiles is an option until Quadriremes show up, which luckly only have 20 CS defense against ranged, so MYC and Pitati with Arrowstorm promotion can defend against these.

The cheapest units, assuming Agoge, you can built are
- Scout 30
- Warrior 26.7
- Slinger 23.4 (15.6 for Nubia)
- Archers 40 (31.2 for Nubia)
- MYC 60
I think it can be a worthwile strategy to protect high impact coastal sites this way, especially by delaying Archery and getting Slingers on the tiles. These guys will become more relevant later in the game, but it still is a big sink.
Best case you place a Campus at 59 (2 techs, 1 Civic) and then you need to invest minimum 23.4 = 40% increase (15.6 = 27% increase) in a unit to keep it from being raided. This ratio will get better later during the game as the unit cost stay fixed while districts get more expensive, but it is a huge loss of momentum.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

We'll be okay. Both Phoenicia and Norway -I- think are a really strong combo. They'll have a great classical age snowball and a huge navy, which is problematic, but not totally unbeatable. 

Woden is a very cautious player. He's been pushing himself to get more aggressive and has improved his tactics - in PBEM2 and PBEM4 he was a bit weak there, but he did a very good conquest in PBEM15 as Persia. However, he won't attack unless he sees an advantage, and otherwise is content to patiently build up and take his time. Ljub is the only player I know nothing about from PBEM19, but marco, you've been hanging out in his thread, so you can give some insight there. The key with Woden is not to show weakness - I'm not sure that he'll just spam endless longships like -I- would or thrawn/Archduke would have. 

So, let's look at our options. I don't think we should distort our entire gameplan into a massive garrison force just to prevent Viking raids. Australia will have some vulnerable districts, sure, but the cities hsould be safe enough with decent garrisons, especially with walls. 

Here's what I'm thinking:

* Korea
* Victoria
* Netherlands
* Aztecs
* Russia
* Mongols

Korea, if available, might be a strong pick just from the overall strength of the civilization. Cheap, 4 adjacency campuses means I don't have to invest much in tech and can focus on the sea. No real naval advantage for us, but a really strong research position. I don't like the lack of a good UU (too bad we didn't get the turtle ship in this version of Civ...), nor how builder-oriented it is, but the seowon and governors are good all on their own. I'd focus on a heavy military early build to look prickly, and not go nuts with seowons until we're safe. No real advantages to expansion, either. 

England's RND is the only real thing going for it, but it's not bad. An RND-spamming strategy is simple and straightfoward. We'll get a decent little fleet of galleys and quads, which isn't nothing, and double GA points and extra ship movement will serve to sort of counter the Phoenicians and Vikings. I would heavily prioritize the Great Lighthouse, too, and make the fleet unbeatable in terms of quality. As the strong arm of Australia this MIGHT work. IZ bonuses aren't great, since I wouldn't build more than 1 or 2 at the most anyway, and extra iron/coal...well, maybe the game will go late enough to matter! The engineer might let me build most of an aqueduct, I guess...England is just so map dependent. If I have an easy foreign continent, I'll be competitive with Phoenicia and Norway. If not, then I'll be a pretty gimped version of them - weaker ship production (although better ships and better leadership), less expansion, and no pillaging. 

The Netherlands has the strong river adjacencies, which is map dependent and might be limited on an island map. Harbor bombs might work well. Polders are a minor boost, nothing spectacular, but 7 Provinces are the strongest Frigate analog available and would match up well against Indonesian jongs. This civ would be less pure military than England, but would let me pull more of my weight in science. I just worry that without any way to match Norway and Phoenicia's production bonuses it'll be very difficult to fight their navies alone. English GAs might do it, not sure about the Dutch. 

The Aztecs DO get the luxury bonus, so by late game would have pretty strong naval units. The builder charge scales well, and amenities will be no problem. I just don't think they have enough going for them otherwise. 

Russia might be viable. Extra tiles are fantastic, lavras guarantee us first religion (I'd take Crusade, both for denial value and since it lets me help defend Australian cities). That means it has a decent classical age, despite no early UU. The bonus to international trade routes for Peter will sync really well in a team game, and Russia can focus on religion, culture, and gold production, meaning lots of traders, which will keep me competitive in science as well. Grand Embassy is easy to set up, since you just leave techs short of completion, for a minor boost to every trade route. Russia might eb an intriguing pick overall. I'm thinking about them, England, the Netherlands, and Korea. 

For the Mongols, the trade route instantly makes a trade post on the first turn, which grants the diplo visibility bonus. When you declare war, your trade route is cancelled, so you can save the trader. 

Dark horse China lets you grab naval wonders like the Mausoleum and Great Lighthouse and hack together a naval civ. Might be a possibility. Stonehenge + Pyramids into Monumentality -> Faith purchase builders, use those builders to build faith-producing wonders, etc. 

Russia -> Crusade, strong tiles, trade routes, no especial naval focus, would need good overall development. 
Korea -> Strong overall science and culture, nothing else notable.
England -> Cheap harbors, lots of good, high-quality ships.
Netherlands -> Decent mix of research and naval power with lots of (expensive) harbors and 7 Provinces. 

Suboptimal will likely claim one of these 4.

[williams482]

Minor PBEM19 spoilers (Chevalier can read) : 

I stopped dedlurking Thrawn because that game is obviously over and have been catching up on other threads. I plan to genlurk this game and am already thoroughly spoiled, but I am happy to answer any questions Chevalier may or may not still have about that micro sheet he lifted off me his own tracking document with my explicit permission.

Good luck, and make a mess 

[Kaiser]

I will happily use that document to help any early game micro decisions, alternatively I can offer mine but it is less attractive to use *cough* if I remember correctly.

When doing my test run, I also tested the early game city attack with longships. As long as you manage just one tile sea access for cities they are completely safe from being conquered by a pure naval force as long as you get the city defense up to 25 at least. I think you can get away with 2 easily with walls, 3 with walls and supporting units.
As long as Australia uses the shore tiles sparingly it should be possible to keep a unit on them for defense. This way you can pick later bloomers and I honestly think the best idea is going for a religion to get your defense up. Going for Vicki is trying to stay on even footing with Wodenjana, but these guys are 2 players with a boost, so even 1 England will be forced into a defense.
That will likely also throw a wrench in thrawns elaborate plan around Japan as a bonus.

Suboptimal will likely pick England anyways.

I forgot that you did not read thrawns PBEM19 thread yet, he did what he did on absolute purpose, there is a big reason why I said he should have been in the vet camp as a 1-game vet. He has a great grasp of the game and its mechanics as well as a good feeling for strategic moves. His reporting is nice to read on top of that, so definitively read his report once that game is over.
Ultimately, I can understand his bitching on game start about re-shuffeling the CIVs as he has poured a ton of time into this game and I expect him to do so here as well. I wonder if TAD will join the reporting and planning frenzy or will be more playing by gut, I feel thrawn will pester him until he is fully engaged as well.

Llubljana looks to be more a player like me, decent if a bit green(er than me) on the mechanics, more the builder type and with a decent lack of focus on short-mid term decisions. It looks like his long-term plan is what he still is playing for in PBEM19. He does not really read the game state very well yet, but Woden should easily compensate for that.
Surprisingly these two picked the early aggression combo for this type of water heavy map, so either this is a voluntary move to force themselves to early aggression or they decided that they want to play the long Builder game and that they do not want the thread of Longships (which I fully expect Woden to play). There will be coastal raiding in any case, as Norway relies on it to get ahead in classical/medieval era.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Regarding thrawn, I think you'll see my PBEM19 thread is full of praise for him. Desert Folklore + Work Ethic was the game winning move, and it was totally brilliant - it would have never occurred to me that I could so quickly spread a foreign religion through my own cities, they normally take AGES to flip on their own. That said, though, the map was more or less tailor made to be a Nubian dream: the city-state desert was a total bonanza. I tried to take it myself, obviously, but couldn't compete with the pitatis. Pitati aren't good at attacking players, but are excellent city-state takers - and there were five that he could reach. Even with that, I think I could have stalemated him with my equal-sized empire and superior units, except that he then got completely broken production out of should-be shitty desert cities. On a normal map, Nubia doesn't skyrocket ahead like that. 

So yes, all credit to thrawn: he knows what he's doing, and he has some outside the box ideas. With Archduke, they're probably the strongest overall team, and if they'd gotten Norway/Phoenicia I'd be deeply worried. But he hit an insane run of luck, too, to win so quickly in PBEM19, and I don't think that will repeat.

Right now, I'm leaning Russia. Get a religion -> Crusade (DotF is kind of weak in this mode, since you can go after the allied cities instead), and focus on Archduke's Monumentality plan in PBEM17. Cossacks aren't such a great sea unit, but they're still Cossacks, and you can win at sea without being a naval civ (see: PBEM12) if you develop properly. I think I can build just as well as anyone as long as my neighbors (city-state or otherwise) could just NOT BE EATEN by my opponents, so I like our chances with Russia.

[Cornflakes]

I'll dedlurke you guys. I've enjoyed Chev's past threads, and would like to follow this game a little closer.