I have cooled down a bit but am still at a loss for this decision.
I agree that it would be best to go on the offensive sooner rather than later, but on whom, CMF or Woden?
In both cases we have to watch out for Suboptimal launching an invasion beyond his fringe plundering, which would be a challenge to handle on its own. If we accept, we further delay attacking CMF as we now also need to bring a defensive force to our NW.
This also endangers AK because Woden has Battleship Fleets or Armadas around to attack there and then go for our Campus area near EM/GM like Suboptimal did.
It would probably be best to also send a Bombard to support Ichabod at Mysty Mountain. And maybe also a force to send against "The Black Gate"
But what are we gaining there, Ichabod will take the city and hopefully put Woden under pressure, but we cannot really claim any cities outside our NW, which all will be difficult to hold.
My numbers were off, 1 oil well brings 3 oil, which makes it even worse as Woden will outnumber us even more heavily, though we can field one oil unit more, yay.
I am in a pessimistic mood and checking our winning scenarios for this game with such kind of a disadvantage did not really help:
Culture
no
Diplomatic
no (we are leading with 4/20, Potala Palace would bring the 5th point so we would still need to win 15 UN votes)
Domination
We are forced into defensive mode against Woden, the only working plan here would be to conquer CMF to gain more access to Oil. In that case we want a safe border with Woden, but we also want to egalize Suboptimals MA advantage. However his stronger units do not have any GG available, so our GG could compensate.
Science
We have one city less than Woden, but I believe we have the stronger empire and GM which should be about double of Wodens best production city. This might be feasible but I expect Woden to throw nukes at us before we can win this way and we cannot defend against nukes and conventional armies.
Devastation
That would basically be the way to a domination victory while rushing nukes ourselves. We would need to amenity up like crazy to prepare for incoming war weariness. Then we would need to identify crippling targets at Woden and Suboptimal and execute nuclear strikes against them.
Woden's IZ crazy zone seems to be a prime target for that, we could place a missile silo in E of Bologna and could hit up to Rohans IZ, which is the strong core of Woden and his NE.
Suboptimal is more difficult, as we would need to replace a lumbermill at Isaac with a missile silo and then could only hit barely Compo. Howard, Marina, Barry, Swirl, Pearl would be in range as well but his productive core seems to be E of that (Compo is its westernmost city) and he could bring up a submarine to our coast and hit everything from there. Our lack of information there is really an issue as I am uncertain where we would have to hit to cripple him.
We would probably need a sub near Howard or in his ocean in the E to hit his capital (which I assue is his most productive reagion)
This only works if we can cripple them before they can fire back, which is already a big challenge with good knowledge, but we will probably be hard pressed conventionally until we get there.
I think the Domination/Devastation direction is the better play, as it also allows us defending better at conventional armies. We need to move against CMF quickly and I wonder if it would be better to delay the war with Woden further so we can arm up better the NW in a defensive style and get our troops out.
We can go to full unit
in 8 turns, so I doubt
projects are the way to go instead of finishing infrastructure. But I am also not sure if the Wonder plan is still valid to pursue, as it will bind our 3 most productive cities for about ~14 turns. Oxford would be a big wonder though as it would speed up our progress to Manhatten project significantly. Ichabod could race us successfully to it with his GE, but I hope he doesn't. His build queues are not very militaristic at all.
All is hinging on what Woden does, worst case would be him getting a MA with CMF or Suboptimal when theirs runs out to thenn attack with tanks and infantery into our forces. We basically can only produce anti-cav, ranged and siege as these are the only units we will be able to upgrade and have a technological equivalent to him. Maybe some cavalry to later upgrade them into Helicopters.
I am not sure I can decide this tonight