[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

I have been wanting to see how easy it would be to attack suboptimal's cities before asking what we want to do in the immediate future. I agree with you that it has been a fairly slow start with the random tech/civic trees and not much has lined up for a decent classical era attack. I still want to see if suboptimal's other cities are coastal before making a final decision but it is looking more and more like creating a wolf pack to sail the seas and take over all the city states maybe the better play. We can use our starting UUs for capturing city states but we will always have the bonus production. Also, we have a fairly weak production island, so it will be hard to produce both a naval force and landing force quickly.

[ljubljana]

That makes sense. Unfortunately, it does look from your screenshots like the one suboptimal city off in the fog is unlikely to be coastal...which also makes sense from a defensive standpoint, though for Gitarja it does mean giving up +2 faith. Still, that's probably a worthwhile trade from sub's perspective if they had a good inland city site, given the high potential of an early naval attack on a map like this and the strong early faith income they have from Earth Goddess.

How do you think that bears on the Akkad decision? I imagine keeping it around becomes a better idea the longer we expect the game to go, especially since we should be able to defend it from external attack fairly well. If we're going to take it, though, we should probably do so ASAP, and I do have to make a decision next turn on whether to start a settler in the capital or finish the bireme for the quickest possible attack.

edit: I guess we should also consider that, for most of the cities we'd be attacking in Medieval, we'd be taking the walls down with mostly ranged ship attacks rather than melee anyways...maybe that works out to my having overhyped the Akkad bonus earlier, especially since I assume it only applies to one of us. I think I'm leaning towards attacking them now, but it's close and could go either way.

If we did choose to attack, are you confident that four biremes would get the job done with two attacking per turn and no siege in place, assuming no defense increases between now and then? My instincts are that it should be more than enough, but I haven't simmed it out or anything.

[ljubljana]

Turn 51 - Phoenicia



Cothon completion into State Workforce completion into the culture promotion for Pingala - Defensive Tactics is due in (I think) 6 more turns now. The extra culture also speeds up the capital's forest acquisition, which is due in 5, the same as our ETA to Bronze Working. It's probably still not worth delaying BW by a turn to make sure iron doesn't invalidate the GP placement, but wow, am I ever asking for it at this point .

Our team's probably on track to hit PoliPhil first, albeit at the normally pretty late date of the mid-t60s. Classical Republic will actually be very useful here for me, I think, with the free point of housing (given all the mandatory Cothon builds) going a long way towards bootstrapping these non-freshwater coastal sites. Of course, Oligarchy must be the choice if we're going to attack someone...and the fact that we're on track to get there first seems like the one feature of this position that does augur well for such an attack.

Anyways, with the Cothon in place, the Bireme at the capital takes only one turn to finish - that does seem worth doing now. We swap into Colonization as well for a four-turn settler after the Bireme finishes. Not sure what to do after that - either another settler or the GP + trader, most likely. Linear A will finish its bireme after the Cothon, then build its own, significantly slower settler.

The Cothon plus the Australia contact finishes up the GA math for me, and it looks like for you as well. Apparently, even though I have visibility on an Australian unit, I still have not met CMF's Russia yet, which is great news from an ES perspective. If possible, I think it would be best for you to delay looking for Russian units/territory until the next era so that I don't waste the 3 ES for contacting all the civs. As Phoenicia, I'm going to have to really work to get two consecutive GAs to keep my Cothon-based research economy from imploding, which could be a tough ask in a 40-turn Classical Era and so should be planned for accordingly.

[Woden]

Turn 50-Vikings
Open the save to find out I have earned enough points for a Golden Age. Looking around, seems Australia can to greet my longboat...
   

Good, now I just need to figure out what to do with my longboat until the era changes.  He will probably sail north to scope out Japan's west coast. '

Over by suboptimal...
   

Starting to see tundra. Hopefully there is a pass around the island and he has coastal cities on the north side.

I saw that TheArchduke's boat came to greet your Brieme. I think this makes capturing Akkad the right path right now. If TheArchduke is our close neighbor to the west, he will for sure go after all city states, so best we beat him to it.  Two Briemes should be enough to capture the city state unless it gets a more powerful unit in the city center (like a chariot or sword). I will plan on having my next longboat sail over in this direction to help out if it is need.

[Woden]

Seeing that there is 10 turns until the era change, you probably don't want to finish anymore techs if you can help it. Research them down to 2 turns left, then switch to something else. At the era change, all techs get a 20% discount... ancient techs get a 20% discount and classical era tech lose their 20% inflated costs. Also, if you plan on Free Inquiry (science from Cothons), all your boosts will go from 40% to 50%. You can save a bunch of science if played right.

If you can't help finishing a tech, the best path would be finishing something that opens up multiple techs that you can dump science into.

[ljubljana]

Okay, I will send the new bireme from Cuneiform to attack Akkad as soon as it can sail down there. The bireme from Linear A will finish around the same time, and the one coming down from the far north will be 1 or 2 turns behind in case we need more muscle or TheArchduke sends ships over to try to stop our attack (which I think is somewhat likely). I might build even more biremes too if multiple English ships start showing up in the area, but hopefully that won't be necessary.

One issue with not finishing more techs is that I won't learn where the iron is quickly enough to send my next settler over there. That's probably fine if we're not attacking someone in Classical (a city on the eastern mercury with a pasture on the sheep seems fine), but if we want to keep that possibility open, or just keep open the possibility of defensive warrior upgrades in case of an attack by TAD, I should probably finish BW at least so we can start stockpiling.

I have to say, not having the Ancestral Hall up is going to really start hurting once these next cities come online. Probably not much we can do about that, though - I'm not sure it'll even be worth building 15 turns from now when we have it available, since by that point I'll only have probably two more open spots on this island plus whatever islands we come across.

edit: Well, no, it probably will still be worth it to build the AH when it finally unlocks - 150 hammers for at least 2 free builders plus another discount on settlers plus the free Phoenicia trade route. It's definitely a closer call than it usually is, though.

[Woden]

Okay, I will send the new bireme from Cuneiform to attack Akkad as soon as it can sail down there. The bireme from Linear A will finish around the same time, and the one coming down from the far north will be 1 or 2 turns behind in case we need more muscle or TheArchduke sends ships over to try to stop our attack (which I think is somewhat likely). I might build even more biremes too if multiple English ships start showing up in the area, but hopefully that won't be necessary.

One issue with not finishing more techs is that I won't learn where the iron is quickly enough to send my next settler over there. That's probably fine if we're not attacking someone in Classical (a city on the eastern mercury with a pasture on the sheep seems fine), but if we want to keep that possibility open, or just keep open the possibility of defensive warrior upgrades in case of an attack by TAD, I should probably finish BW at least so we can start stockpiling.

Can you post a SS of your tech tree? Then we can discuss a path. As for iron, are you planning to rush build a bunch of swordsmen ASAP? Otherwise, it can wait. Better to be able to finish a bunch of techs right after the era change and slingshot ahead in tech. Besides, it is most likely within range of your capital or at least one of your other cities (by the time you reveal it). Need to look at big picture and not just the small details. How many techs can you finish in 10 turns versus saving 30% (20% discount +10% for additional boost) on all remaining techs.

I have to say, not having the Ancestral Hall up is going to really start hurting once these next cities come online. Probably not much we can do about that, though - I'm not sure it'll even be worth building 15 turns from now when we have it available, since by that point I'll only have probably two more open spots on this island plus whatever islands we come across.

edit: Well, no, it probably will still be worth it to build the AH when it finally unlocks - 150 hammers for at least 2 free builders plus another discount on settlers plus the free Phoenicia trade route. It's definitely a closer call than it usually is, though.

With the little we know about the world so far, there seems to be plenty of islands to settle and plenty of places for you to expand too. You civ wants a large empire and can get it quickly. AH is definitely your best option.

[Woden]

Turn 51-Vikings
Move my northern longboat around the northern tip of China/Indonesia and find a cultural city state...
   

They want me to get a great prophet. I am not sure suboptimal has met them yet and might be a good candidate for conquest. There seems to be a double approach for quick conquest and they have whales and crabs right next to the city center. Could also block in suboptimal's northern cities if this is the only entrance.

Down south...
   

Decided to check out the south first, before moving north along Japan. Maybe there will be a city state somewhere down here.

[ljubljana]

Turn 52 - Phoenicia



Bireme completes at the capital and heads west to cut off TheArchduke's galley if it's headed NE. The southern galley defogs a bit after verifying that TAD's galley can't cut off its approach to Linear A this turn, but will head back north next turn in case the English galley turns towards the city anyways. The capital starts what is actually a 4-turn settler after I micro off the marble, which only needs to happen for 1 turn thanks to the builder arriving just in time for the quarry. 28 (work pfh) + 26 (work marble) + 28 (quarry marble) + 28 = 110 hammers, exactly enough. I did mess up slightly here, though - I should have worked the marble this turn and the pfh next turn, in case there's enough overflow from the Bireme to make the swap unnecessary. Oops, oh well.

Where will that settler go, though? We do have some awkward dotmapping considerations to resolve here...



These are the three strong, defensible sites between the two of us, if we optimize for cities that can only be attacked from one coastal tile. This is a very wasteful allocation of the available space, though, with the given sites neatly ruling out any possible inland site while also wasting the east coast area between the two of us. If we throw defensibility to the wind, we could squeeze as many as two more cities into this area of varying quality:



Is this worth doing? It could be. "Throw defensibility to the wind" is maybe a bit of an overstatement on my part - at the very least, the exposed spots will be concentrated on one area of the coast, and it's the area between our two capitals, where we will be most able to concentrate naval force in the event of an attack. We're also planning to eventually add Mitla to our joint empire, which is itself exposed enough to demand at least some naval presence in this area anyways. The coastal plains tile halfway between cities 4 and 5 would also be a great spot for an Encampment, which could help a bit defensively while boosting two different Cothons.

On the other hand, though, settling exposed spots like these quickly (the spot labeled '4' might actually be a more natural choice for the capital's next settler than city '3', all else being equal) could open us up to a quick attack before concerns like that come into play. Suboptimal in particular is right on the doorstep of this area and is beginning to show some worrying signs of a power spike...moreover, I'm at a loss as to why they're doing anything with their faith other than saving for Monumentality unless they're planning something. That something is probably a wolfpack CS sweep like ours, but that could still turn out badly for us if wolves stumble upon an exposed coastal spot. Another option if we go for the exposed city plan is to settle '3' and '7' with the next two settlers, then return to the east coast spots (and perhaps reconsider them?) once we have more ships in the area.

edit: Actually, there is one more option - we could move all five of these sites 1 SE. That makes some of the sites slightly worse and others slightly better, and turns two 3-attackable and one 2-attackable cities into three 2-attackable cities, albeit now on opposite coasts.



Tech tree screenshot. I can put 1t each into Masonry/Archery/BW and then dump beakers into Mathematics, but that probably wastes beakers and doesn't seem that useful anyways since math is not exactly a high-priority tech. It's probably better to finish BW and dump into Shipbuilding IMO.

Internationally, in addition to more Indonesian faith-buying, there are a few things of note. Both of the remaining cultural CSs want a trade route for the free envoy, which is annoying, but hopefully next era's quests will be easier. Russia's Great Prophet will show up next turn. I'm also not sure if I mentioned this last turn, but Indonesia has a holy site up, making a total of four civs that will have religions in the next 60t...we might actually have to start putting in work fairly soon if we want to grab one for Crusade protection. It looks like TheArchduke gifted all their gold to Kaiser last turn...I wonder what for? It also looks like a lot of our opponents are on track to miss a GA, unless things change in the next few turns - CMF, marcopolo, and Kaiser have ES points in the mid to high teens, and might need to catch a break in order to hit the threshold. TheArchduke only has 8(!) and could be going for a Classical Dark Age...what in the world for? I guess Twilight Valor is an interesting option for a buff to CS-killer wolfpacks? Monasticism's great in the right circumstances, but not this early and not for England. Isolationism could be a niche choice for them once the Dockyards and Lighthouses start going up, but is probably worse than a Free Inquiry GA. That said, if this game makes it to the Renaissance, it might be worth thinking about for Phoenicia once FI is no longer an option.

Decided to check out the south first, before moving north along Japan. Maybe there will be a city state somewhere down here.

That sounds good to me. If you see any Russian units, though, it probably makes sense for you to move away from them in the same turn so that I don't contact Russia (and waste 4 ES) on my turn, if possible. Maybe it's also worth not defogging tiles on their island with the last movement point of your ship to make sure this will be possible (from the military scores, it looks like they don't have any boats out, so that should be cautious enough). I'm also not sure if I'll contact them if you see a Russian unit but move away before my turn - I imagine not, but haven't tested it or anything.

[Woden]

Go with more city sites over defensive settling. Even with the single approach from the sea, you are still vulnerable to Frigates from multiple attacks. We have the strongest sea units right now and can build them faster than anybody else, so protection from the sea should be do-able.

As for the tech tree, dump science into Math. Even though it is fairly useless, it is still a prereq for Horseback Riding. Ideally, we need to figure out if you can do 2 turns into BW and Archery without wasting a bunch of science. Then you could get a bunch of overflow to finish some of the classical stuff in 1 turn.