[PB56] Lazteuq's Cool Facts about Space

[Lazteuq]

Just some more thoughts (still T104):
I just remembered that Noble got a Great Scientist on the same turn as he offered peace. We might have just granted eachother peaceful golden ages without realizing it.  I'd held on to that scientist for so long that Noble probably thought it was used on an Academy 10 turns ago. Maybe that's what I should have done anyways.
Here are the less-abysmal demographics during GA:

I think I'm using my 62 land tiles pretty efficiently, but it still ain't much. The disparity will become more obvious as I start running out of good tiles to work long before my neighbors do.

I think Monarchy will be done T110. Another Great Scientist will be out on T111.
I think I'll go for Feudalism right after Monarchy. It's on the Guilds path anyways, and PRO longbows would have fantastic deterrent value. About 10 turns for Feudalism. This feels like a slow tech pace.
Metal Casting and Colossus right after Monarchy is another option. Colossus wouldn't be a huge help for this empire, but it's a pretty cheap wonder. I considered Great Lighthouse, but I don't think I have any chance. It would take 13 turns or so.
Maybe the next great person should be a Merchant from a Market in Constantinople, instead of just more scientist spam. Maybe a Guilds bulb, but then I'd have to get Civil Service. So probably just a second golden age.

Thoughts about the rest of world:
I worry about Noble's next move: With such a lead in production/food, Noble doesn't even need to wait for medieval techs to make a move. I bet Noble's working toward Construction right now.

If Noble is able to catch Amicalola off guard, this game might be over by concession very fast. There is no clear 2nd place contender as I see it.

Gira's launching a keshik-only attack on Turn 103 against a Protective leader. Sounds bloody. I expect Jowy to be crippled soon, but I also expect Gira to be left technologically backwards. Maybe Civac will join with Gira for a fast 2v1 conquest, but I think Civac has his own tensions with Cairo.

I don't expect the current Mjmd vs. Vanrober war to get anywhere except for setting them both back. Mjmd took a city, but Vanrober is whipping so much, it looks like he's willing to go Total War.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 105

Gira is making fast gains against Jowy, having already taken 2 cities. I just got graphs on Jowy this turn, and I can say he simply didn't build enough units. His power is only about 2/3 of mine, which isn't much. Gira's power buildup from the keshiks was pretty obvious. Maybe Jowy just wasn't paying attention. Jowy's struggle means I've probably lost my copper supply. Maybe someone else will trade copper to me for gpt. Or I can just wait for Iron Working.
I'm working on Libraries and Spearmen mostly.

I might be able to take Turfan by surprise with chariots, and I could probably even hold it for a while, especially since it's on a hill. Now would be a great time to strike, with Gira's army away and Noble in enforced peace. 
So... I can attack, but should I?
No, I don't think I will.
The extra land and strategic depth would be nice, and would enable an additional city on the inner shore. And of course I would secure horses. I don't think that's worth losing Gira's cooperation and dealing with a counterattack though. I'm almost certain that I can get to Guilds faster by peacefully keeping my small empire stable. I did pick Byzantium after all. I've only got one card up my sleeve, but it's a good one. I'm going to be critically dependent on a foreign horse supply, but I think I can trust Amicalola here.

Noble didn't start a GA yet, but he did complete the Mausoleum and Great Lighthouse on the same turn! So I expect him to start a 12-turn GA next. Oops. I've probably just helped him a lot by ensuring peace. I bet his GNP is about to go through the roof. He might be going for Hanging Gardens as well, that would be extremely profitable for him.

Space Fact 39: Destructive electrical arcs sometimes happen on solar panels in space. If there is no electrical connection between different parts, charged particles can build up until an arc suddenly strikes without warning. The vacuum of space is a fantastic insulator, but it's not perfect.

[Lazteuq]

This turn pace kinda sucks.
Anyways, it's turn 108. Not much has happened for me.

Maybe I should have delayed the GA so I could switch to serfdom for 5 turns, then switch back to slavery at the end of the GA. I have a lot of grassland farms, so serfdom would've been decent.

I'm building wealth instead of units in some cities because I want to just get Feudalism ASAP. I know its a bit of a gamble.
Capitol is working on a settler so I can take the spot down south by Gira. There is so much whip anger in the capitol that I can't grow it larger.
I'll get Moai on the island city by working mines on the mainland.

Jowy is collapsing pretty fast, with Civac now joining in as well. I saw a lot of CG2 archers in a hill city, but it looks like Gira smashed right through them.
Amicalola is whipping some significant military. Maybe Noble is threatening their border. I wish I had a scout over there, but I foolishly got him killed.
Mjmd seems to be doing well with his Praetorians. Vanrober has been reduced to my level on the scoreboard! I'm not sure what Cairo is up to, probably straight chillin'.
I'm hoping Noble attacks Amicalola very soon. If he does, I should safely make it to Longbows without much trouble. However, if Noble attacks me right away when our treaty runs out, I might lose cities.

Space Fact 40: The "North Star" Polaris is actually a three-star system. Polaris A is the largest and brightest, easily visible to the naked eye. Polaris B is much fainter, but should be visible through a basic telescope.
I own a small telescope, so I might try to observe it on a clear night. If so, I'll post a picture here.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 110.
Jowy gave me 100 gold just as he was exiled to the islands by Gira and Civac's combined attack. I really appreciate the gift, because that means I can accelerate Feudalism by a turn or two.

I asked Vanrober for open borders again, I'm not sure why he has been refusing.
In 3 turns, I'll be able to cancel the 7gpt-silk trade from Gira, because I don't need that extra happiness any more.

I'm running Hereditary Rule now, so cities can finally grow a bit. I'd like to avoid whipping anything until after Feudalism, but Noble might force me to. Our peace treaty ends in 3 turns, while it will take around 7 turns before my first longbows show up. So he has a long enough window to probably take one city before I can slow him down. That city would probably be Nicomedia, because it is on flat land. If Noble does take Nicomedia, then Nicaea will be hard for me to defend, and I'll end up reduced to being completely irrelevant. I'm working on improving the defenses now instead of building wealth. If he attacks, I'm sure there will be plenty of catapults and war elephants.
Part of the reason I'm worried is that Noble is roading our border.

Space Fact 41: Unlike most newer satellites, Sputnik's electronics were in a sealed container filled with nitrogen. Only the antennas were exposed to vacuum.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 111
I fear that I'll be losing cities 2 turns from now.
At first it was encouraging to see that Amicalola doing serious military buildup, but I think it's intended for an attack on Vanrober. That will leave Noble even more freedom to attack me. He hasn't gained a lot of power lately, but I think it's because he doesn't need to. There could already be 8 horse archers just sitting there, ready to 1-turn Nicomedia out of the fog, and I'll have no way of knowing. A slow attack with catapultswould be tough as well, because I don't have cats of my own to fight on open ground with.

The new Great Scientist is going to make an academy in the capital. There's enough food surplus to run at least 2 scientists perpetually. Too bad I won't get Bureaucracy for a long time.
I think I can get Feudalism in 4 turns, possibly 5.

With such tightly packed cities in a limited land area, slavery will continue to be even more necessary than normal. I only have average ~8 land tiles per city, so most cities are never going to be growing large.

When this is all over, I'm really looking forward to reading Gira and Mackoti's thread, as well as Noble's and Amicalola's. A lot of stuff happened 40-60 turns ago that I still don't understand.

[Lazteuq]

This morning, Noble played last, the turn rolled, and he logged out. 3020 minutes later I logged in, and then he logged in 2 minutes after me and just sat there, menacingly. I get the feeling he's watching me like a hawk, about to strike. I feel completely outmatched.
I don't have the C&D to figure out just how many units Noble has, but I'm pretty sure I don't have enough defense. Also, even if he can't take cities, Noble can just walk around and profitably pillage tiles with relative impunity. Basically, I have no leverage right now.
Also, if Noble commits to an attack, I fully expect Gira/Mackoti to opportunistically feast upon my southern cities.

I'm thinking about declaring war on Noble next turn, and sending suicidal scouting units into his land to look for tiles where he might be staging an attack. After gathering intel, I would offer a peace deal:
-If I discover that he is staging an attack, I would add in something juicy to the peace, like ~20 gpt. Hopefully enough cash that he decides it's more valuable than the city capture gold+land area.
-If I don't find a dangerous staged stack anywhere, I would simply offer fair peace without doing anything aggressive.
I don't think this preemptive scouting idea is really a smart plan, but I do think it's better than doing nothing at all.

I don't understand what Mjmd's delay is. I get that he's busy with work, but he clearly has Miguelito as an actively participating teammate. So why doesn't Miguelito play the turn?

I'll post a proper update next turn.

[Charriu]

I don't understand what Mjmd's delay is. I get that he's busy with work, but he clearly has Miguelito as an actively participating teammate. So why doesn't Miguelito play the turn?

Not speaking for Mjmd, but I think some players including me, do want to play the turn themselves and only fall back to a dedlurker if really necessary (vacations, failing internet etc.)

[Lazteuq]

Ah, that's totally understandable. I guess our different thoughts are caused by the distinction between "dedlurker" and "teammate".

[Lazteuq]

Turn 113

After debating with myself for a while, I decided there's a nearly 100% chance I'll be at war next turn anyway, so I started suicide-scouting.

• First, I moved a chariot near Standstill: He found 6 axes, a chariot, 2 spears, and an archer. A decently frightening force, but not different than what I saw 12 or so turns ago. This was already good news, because it meant he wasn't going to try and snipe my capitol.
  
• Next, I moved an unpromoted archer to a forest hill by Explore and saw this lots of workers, but nothing scary. 
  
• I now realized that he can't 1-turn Nicaea from Counterspell, because there's a river on our border. So I sent an archer up by Explore instead, worried there might be a stack on the Ivory tile. I found....nothing!
  
• Finally, I sent an archer to check the mine south of Counterspell, and found nothing.
  

I guess my paranoia was unwarranted. No war elephants, catapults, or horchers in sight. 
At this point, I offered Noble peace+40 gold. I deleted the chariot and archer on flatland, because they would have been easy kills for him.
Power graph:

I just got graphs on Mjmd, and he's got the power you might expect from Aggressive Rome.
Amicalola has horse archers on Vanrober's border. I think Vanrober is totally doomed.
I think there will be 4/11 players crippled by 1AD.
Fun Fact: All the protective leaders are near the bottom of the scoreboard. I'm not sure how to read into that.

Gira's Keshiks are starting to move back from the Jowy war. I think an attack on me could be as little as 4 turns away.
Feudalism should be secure in 2 turns though, and I'll have gold leftover for upgrades if necessary.

Space Fact 42: Spacecraft orbiting magnetized planets can use the magnetic field to change their orientation. This is very convenient because it doesn't require any thrusters, motors, flywheels or any other moving parts. However, magnetic control like this only works near a planet, not in deep space.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 114: Noble took peace, I think I have enough security now to go all-out for Guilds.
I cancelled the silk for 7gpt deal with Gira, and then re-sent a corn for corn to indicate peaceful intentions. I'm sending units down south ASAP. Gira should see the first longbow in 2 turns. I'm sure Gira has a lot of bored Keshiks who are looking for a fight.

Techs:
First I want IW to make sure I actually do have iron. You never know with this map.
After that, Metal Casting will be good to start some forges.
HBR will be quick and easy to fill in because of KTBs. Build a couple stables after the forges.
Then Machinery, and onward to Guilds. Prebuilding horse archers of course.
Breakeven beaker rate is around 100, but I can do quite a bit better with wealth builds. With libraries nearly everywhere and an academy, I should get about 1.3 beakers per 1 commerce by staying at 100% slider.
Should generate a merchant in 20 turns, then start another GA. I'll use that GA to get into Vassalage.

I still think I'll ignore the aesthetics line until after Guilds.
With an empire this size, I think it's OK to ignore CoL.

Space Fact 43: Ion thrusters might sound futuristic, but they are actually over 50 years old. The US and Soviet Union both built them in the 1960s. Today, they are standard technology used by privately funded satellites.