[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

Wait, oops, the only reason I'm in CR now is to get the CR legacy card . I thought that seemed better for my setup due to the tight housing situation on all of these coastal, non-riverside cities I've been founding, in which I'm mostly planning to build lighthouses for housing rather than granaries for the extra trade routes, which will take some time to go up. Oligarchy's card will obviously stay relevant for longer, though, with the CR card unlikely to be useful after the lighthouses are built. Do you think I should go for the Oligarchy card instead? If so, I can swap to Oligarchy in two turns with the MT swap, which also has the added bonus of getting us the +4 CS bonus in time for a Geneva DoW on t67.

Unfortunately, I think TAD will get Akkad in 5 turns or so unless something changes or we're willing to DoW them at some point to run interference with the Biremes - I assume that's the right play, but I'm happy to be vetoed on that too. I guess I should be preparing for that weakened TAD galley at Akkad to peel off and make a run for it next turn, too. If we are planning on a war with England, do you think it's worth DoWing a turn or two early if we end up needing to in order to catch it? Ugh, I guess I should have denounced TAD a few turns ago for the ES from declaring Formal War, huh . Oh well, we can probably find some other way of picking that up if necessary.

[Woden]

What is your goal here? Attacking TAD or attacking Geneva? You can't do both in the immediate future. If you want to protect Akkad, then we should get into position for that. If you want to take Geneva, then we can focus on them. I don't think we can do both and succeed.

I suggest letting TAD take Akkad, we take Geneva, then we attack TAD and take Akkad.

[ljubljana]

Mid-turn update/discussion (which, by the way, I can be more sparing with these in the future if you think it's getting excessive ):

I definitely think attacking Geneva in the next few turns is the better play, if we can only pick one of that + denying Akkad. Here's the situation there:



We have 5 ships in the area, and, importantly, the TAD galley is leaving! We could attack as soon as next turn when Amani establishes, but there are two issues with that timing: the TAD galley would still be in range to turn around and try to mess with our conquest, and I wouldn't be in Oligarchy unless I give up the Classical Republic legacy card. Here's the situation with respect to the AH:



5 turns from completion, with a chop coming in on t68. My best guess is that it will finish not with the chop but with that turn's production, at the start of t69. The attack timing I propose is the following: finish the AH at the start of t69 simultaneously with finishing Military Tradition research for support bonuses, get the CR legacy card enabled, then immediately swap to Oligarchy and attack Geneva with all four biremes on the same turn, while having your longship attack from the south as well to occupy the last tile next to the city. This attack timing has the benefits of allowing access to the CR legacy card in Oligarchy (which seems strong in my situation due to all my housing-capped dry coastal cities) while waiting long enough that TAD's galley will be too far away to intervene before we take the city. It also means that I'd have time to bring down another bireme down from the north and you could bring your longboat under construction in Loki to help out as necessary.

What do you think about that attack plan? There are disadvantages too, obviously - waiting until t69 to attack means two more turns for something to go wrong, such as Geneva building a galley or more TAD ships showing up. If you think the disadvantages of the t69 plan are serious, option 2 is to attack as soon as possible, next turn (t67). With the t67 plan, I'd switch to Military Tradition immediately, finish it next turn, and swap to Oligarchy, giving up on the CR legacy card (and, indeed, the possibility of using any legacy card until tier 2 governments unlock) but allowing for a fast attack. TAD's galley would be close enough to intervene in this scenario, and we'd be further away from reinforcements, but we'd have a faster attack that could be executed before any other potential problems can appear.

Here's the situation at Akkad:



...it's back up to 33 defensive strength! I'm not sure how this happened - maybe it finished another galley or something. Does that change your assessment of whether or not my two biremes are enough to deny the conquest to TAD, or delay it until the city gets its walls up? I honestly think there's a good chance TAD will give up next turn and retreat after seeing the city strength increase, but if they don't, I could move two biremes onto to the tiles 2E and E-NE of the city on t68. If TAD is still trying to take the city in two turns, I think that would make him back off, even if we don't DoW. Alternatively, we could DoW and attack the redlined galley on t68 to drive the point home - with the city at 33 defensive strength, a dead galley, and two biremes in range, I imagine the conquest will stop looking quite so worthwhile to TAD.

There is one important factor that could mess with this analysis, though - TAD is probably just 1 or 2 turns away from PoliPhil and a swap to Oligarchy and Twilight Valor. If we're worried about that, or if you think our forces are just numerically insufficient to both interfere with this conquest while also taking Geneva, the alternative is committing to peace with TAD and letting them take Akkad if they can. In that case, I'd still leave one bireme here to protect from opportunistic pillaging, but would move the other bireme down to reinforce the Geneva attack.

If it were up to me, I think I'd go with a t69 Geneva attack with 4 biremes and 1-2 longships, while also committing two biremes at Akkad to look menacing and possibly DoW and kill some redlined English galleys, if we get the opportunity. However, I think there are cases to be made for one or both of a t67 Geneva attack and to committing to peace with TAD + one bireme at Akkad. What do you think of these alternatives, or do you think there's some other attack timing and force deployment that we should be considering? Having stated and argued my preference, you're more knowledgeable on MP warfare by far, so if your preferences are different from mine, I will defer to you on this one.

[Woden]

Dow'ing TAD anytime soon is a bad idea. My fleet is on the other side of our empires and I have near zero production, no walls, no archers, no trades, no districts, and need builders and construction to get have more than 2/1 tiles. Give up on Akkad for the time being. As an a side, their defensive strength is due to a chariot seen in your T62 screenshot. Give me time to take the city state and then sail over to Akkad, or at least, let's take Akkad Geneva and then I will have 2 longboats that can attack from the ocean and be safe from counter attacks. As for the attack on Geneva, wait a few turns until my other longboat is out and in position. Let me declare and attack and then you can clean them up and take the city.

Edit: I will see if I can work up an outline of a strategy moving forward tonight and then we can figure out how to move forward. It seems to me we are all over the place and need to become more focused on an overarching plan.

[ljubljana]

Sounds good to me, playing the turn now - I'll plan for the t69 Geneva attack + one bireme at Akkad then. One question though - if you DoW on Geneva and attack, will the city heal between your turn and my turn? Maybe I should make the DoW to avoid wasting a hit on them.

[ljubljana]

Turn 66 - Phoenicia



Geneva deploy, in which I do my best to hide ships from TheArchduke while still keeping them all in range of the city in case we need to bump up the attack timetable for whatever reason. I wonder where Amani should go after she gets our 2 ES here next turn? Akkad seems like the natural choice since I'm getting a free envoy there when you finish Mathematics, but I don't know if it'll still be standing in 5 turns . If I suzereign Akkad, do you know if that will pull us into war with England/Japan? Or will it force them and Akkad to make peace?



Akkad deploy. Looks like they did build a galley in addition to the chariot, ouch. Here's hoping that makes TAD back off.



Economic screenshot. The TR from Hieratic is by sea for some reason, which is annoying, since it's exposed to pillaging and doesn't give us roads. The warrior in Cuneiform starts moving south again in case of barbs, and the one in Hieratic continues healing.

After finishing Construction, I'm working on Mathematics right now, since my immediate goal is to stall for long enough to get the Engineering boost, and despite my repeated disparagements, the +1 movement to naval units provides at least some immediate benefit, unlike Currency and Irrigation. My plan is to get that to the boost level, then do the same with Engineering, then work on Currency until I can get the Engineering boost. The planned build order is

Cuneiform: AH - Magnus settlers forever. This city needs to hit size 7 before the era change, which makes me consider trying to fit the lighthouse in here somewhere, but I think a well-timed Magnus rice harvest is a better idea given my badly-lagging expansion.
Linear A: settler - Limes walls - quadrireme (need to boost Naval Tradition ASAP) - builder (- campus eventually when we hit size 4 and get the tile we need)
Hieratic: Cothon - builder - bireme (need to eventually scout the north for more islands)

I'll need to squeeze a trader in there somewhere too to take advantage of the AH TR (destined for either Geneva or the yet-unbuilt west coast city); I'm not immediately sure how I'll manage to do that at the moment, though. The plan is to swap to Limes in 3t with the switch to Oligarchy (into Limes + Conscription + Colonization + Republican Legacy), then back to Maritime Industries when I finish Recorded History for the quadrireme.

Finishing Construction also boosts Games and Recreation, which is here:



I'm a little unnerved by how quickly everyone's been building campuses - our economic lead over TAD/Kaiser in particular has all but evaporated. This game seems like it's starting to turn into a build-off, which doesn't exactly play to our strengths. I'm not sure what we should do about that in the medium-term, though - taking Akkad back from TAD is a fine plan, but it won't swing the game in our favor, and I don't think we have any immediate prospects of successfully invading them. I guess we could just build more ships, try to find and take the other CS that TAD conquered, while rolling up the CS in the east ourselves and hopefully keeping anyone else nearby from snowballing off of them? I don't know if that would provide enough economic advantage to offset Japan and Australia, but maybe it could get us to Frigates, by which point we'll have the production in place to make some noise.

edit: What do you think about me denouncing TAD after we take Geneva? It's worth 2 potentially crucial ES if we then declare Formal War, but would give away the possibility of an attack...but then again, they must be expecting an attack anyways given our milpower lead and the fact that they're going after a CS literally right next to our core. I don't think they've scouted enough to know just how close to Phoenicia it is, but they've seen your cities and my ships, so they must have some idea that I'm in the area as well.

[ljubljana]

Turn 67 - Phoenicia

Just a few things worth reporting this turn, I think. The first is at Akkad:



TAD has made some progress here from last turn, but not much, and look at the health on those galleys - I think next turn they're not going to be able to get in a double attack at the very least, which will give the city some time to heal. I move my one bireme into their visibility range in the hopes of instilling just the smallest amount of fear for the lives of their injured galleys, which we could pick off quite easily if we were so inclined. I also pick up 2 ES from suzereigning Geneva, and try to move Amani into Akkad - what do you think of that decision? I'm not sure whether Akkad will still be standing in 5 turns - it's probably a pretty close question that depends on how many ships they have in the area. We don't really lose anything if the city falls before Amani is established, though, since we won't have the envoys to suzereign 8 different CS this era anyways. That said, do you know if we'll be dragged into war with TAD if I suzereign Akkad? My impression is that it's more likely that TAD and Akkad would be forced into peace, but please correct me if that's not true so that I can reassign Amani.



Domestically, I'm still planning to DoW Geneva on t69, which should be the turn the AH finishes. Between now and then, though, I'll have to decide what to do with this settler out of Linear A. Of the marked spots, I think 5 and 6 are out because I don't have any ships in the area to defend them from any suboptimal galleys that might be in the area. Spots 3, 7, and 8 all need to go monument-first, I think, the former two to get their food tiles acquired and the latter to start working on acquiring those essential second-ring forests. 3 and 7 also both need a trader to get started, with no two-food tile in range, but I'm something like 13 turns away from the next trader at least, and that's if I build it right after the Cothon in Hieratic and don't pause for a builder or bireme. Perhaps those factors add up to committing this next settler to site 8 despite its inland nature since it's easiest to bootstrap, then sending the first settler from Cuneiform to site 3 in conjunction with a trader. I also think that at least one of Hieratic and Cuneiform should squeeze out a bireme soon to get some ships up in the north, for scouting and to protect the planned east coast settlements. Cuneiform in particular has a window in which to do this, as its next settler will take only 5t to complete without the AH, but can't finish until after Magnus establishes on t74.

Internationally, the main development of note is both CMF and suboptimal getting their first Monumentality settlers - they seem to be in fine shape to stay ahead of me in expansion even with the stream of +150% hammer Magnus settlers on the way at Cuneiform . Hopefully I can catch up to the rest of the pack, though.

[Woden]

Turn 66-Vikings
My southern most longboat has found Russia...
   

He found a campus under construction but nothing to pillage yet. He will continue east to scout out their land and pillage anything that looks promising. I will try and stick to ocean tiles as much as I can so they can't attack me. 

Over by Rapa Bui...
   

I think I will attack in 2 turns. I wish I had a few more longboats but 3 should be able to take the city. All 3 should earn promotions after a few attacks, so will probably take 3 or 4 turns to take the city. Then, my forces can sail west to help around Akkad. 

As for Akkad, getting suzerain will not impact TAD's war with them in anyway except increase their defensive strength because of the increased envoys. I am fine with moving Amani to Akkad, good to get the points before they disappear. Let's hope TAD didn't bring enough units (doubtful) to take the city quickly. 

As for your next settler, I think site 3 is your best option. It has a few hills to get production and you could buy the fish tile to get the city growing. First build should be a Cothon to get the district discount going for your other districts. You have 5 districts unlocked  (holy site, campus, encampment, harbor, and government plaza), so you need 5 or 6 districts to start getting the discount, and Cothons are 1/2 cost.

[Woden]

As for Geneva, attacking on T69 should be a go. Question for you, if I can take the city, should I? With 3 attacks from you, I might be able to take it with 2 attacks from my boats before it can heal. We could always trade it when it gets 100% loyal to me (needs to be for a trade to occur).

[ljubljana]

Good catch on the district discounting - I thought I'd be on track for that after Hieratic's Cothon, but I forgot I had encampments unlocked, so you're right that I'll need one more Cothon. I'm not sure we're in a rush to unlock it, though...I don't really see myself building any non-Cothon districts for 20 turns or so, until the new cities and Linear A hit size 4. With that in mind, I think the new city has time to go monument - Cothon first, which might be the better play to avoid a tile buy and start working on acquiring those essential second-ring food and forest tiles.

As far as Geneva, I'm expecting to get at least 4 attacks in on t69, and could even get in a fifth if my last bireme gets down there in time. The main reason I think I should ultimately end up with it is that the city is mostly useful for its +5 Cothon spot, which I can build at half cost and will get beakers from. That said, even though it'll take a while, Geneva might also want a monument first so it'll ever acquire those second-ring forests - if you think that build order makes more sense, I think you taking it if you get the chance would work fine, as I'm sure it'll hit 100% loyalty before finishing a monument.