[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

Wait, Jongs come online at Mercenaries? Oh my god, that's terrifying. Imagine if sub's current milpower spike is not them building a navy but them building 8 land units to boost and locate Mercenaries - they actually might be pretty close already depending on where it is. Frigates are in the Renaissance for everyone else, and Square Rigging is almost impossible to locate quickly with tech shuffle because you have to kill a unit with a musketman. That'd be hard enough on an archipelago map even if we had a musketman, but getting one requires another Renaissance tech (Gunpowder) that is even more unboostable because nobody has even a single encampment, let alone an armory. Depending on how the tech shuffle worked out, sub could seriously have as many as 30-40 turns where they have frigates and nobody else does.

If they choose to come for us when that happens, I don't have have the faintest idea how we could defend against them. I guess we just need to try to get Cartography as quickly as we can and save cash to do mass-upgrades to caravels. At least we know where that is and will have a GA (in my case) and Oligarchy (in yours) to boost them up to ~60 CS. If I can manage to pick up 2 ES from killing a unit with the Great Admiral, maybe I'll actually forego swapping to Monarchy for the time being just to keep the Oligarchy boost active a bit longer. I guess the other thing we can do is to make sure to research different techs in the late Medieval/early Renaissance eras (which we are already starting to do) to increase the odds that one of us stumbles on Square Rigging just by random chance.

[ljubljana]

What if I gifted suboptimal mercury? I've got extra so it costs me nothing, it helps out CMF's somewhat-weaker neighbor which is good for balance of power reasons, and it would give them a reason not to turn on us for 30 turns at least. It probably wouldn't make a difference, but I can't really see any downside to it, other than perhaps very slightly accelerating their time to Jongs if their capital's at exactly +2 or something like that.

Naturally, a lux trade would be a better idea, so I'll look for those too and offer one if possible (I forget if they have extras of anything).

[Woden]

What if I gifted suboptimal mercury? I've got extra so it costs me nothing, it helps out CMF's somewhat-weaker neighbor which is good for balance of power reasons, and it would give them a reason not to turn on us for 30 turns at least. It probably wouldn't make a difference, but I can't really see any downside to it, other than perhaps very slightly accelerating their time to Jongs if their capital's at exactly +2 or something like that.

Naturally, a lux trade would be a better idea, so I'll look for those too and offer one if possible (I forget if they have extras of anything).

I won't just give him the luxury for free. There would be no reason not to take it and it could help speed up an attack. Offer a trade for a luxury or gold, something like 4 or 5 per turn.

[ljubljana]

Turn 92 - Phoenicia



Here's TAD's peace offer for this turn. Yes, TAD, I would love to be your friend! But why would I give you back Akkad? I respond with the same offer, but with Akkad ceded, and with me offering CMF's beaker rate in gold in exchange for CMF's culture rate again for good measure.

I also offered both sub and roland mercury for 4 gpt. I have two extra, so it's fine (good, even) if both accept.

I go with a very daring deploy at Akkad this turn to sneak in a pair of ship kills - let's see if I get called on it:



That bireme in the far northwest is at the location of Kaiser's former quad, which met its end this turn at the hands of the bireme's bonus movement. I'll be double-attacked by TAD's galley and Kaiser's quad this turn, and putatively trapped...however, I shouldn't be killed and, critically, should be knocked into promotion range, so I actually think my odds are pretty good to slip away here. Even if I fail at that, though, a bireme for a quad is a good trade in terms of hammers. The bireme 2E of that bireme is there to prevent the triple-attack on the first bireme, which I think would manage to kill it - I think that bireme's healthy enough to be safe from any TAD attempts to double-attack or trap it, especially given the relatively few ships TAD has left in the area.

In the north, you can see that I've also chosen a bold deploy to kill a TAD galley. Those biremes are also both pretty critically injured...but I think both will survive the turn with the slinger's reduced damage against ships, and both are ready to promote to Embolon if they do. It's not out of the question that I'll lose one or both of these ships, but I'd be surprised.

Critically, I think our breaking out in the west is now a foregone conclusion even if I lose a few ships - there's no way the two TAD galleys and one Kaiser quad over here can take on Embolon biremes. I also think the linchpin of TAD's defense, the galley 1E of the bananas, is doomed next turn unless it retreats or promotes, which means we should be able to keep the southern group from interfering. If we can pull that off, the northern pillagers are probably doomed - with no easy way to escape back to England, their best bet is to take the long way around to the north, where the extra movement of the bireme can run them down.

Man, biremes are great! They see use so rarely that I think they've been seriously underestimated as a UU, especially with that strange ability to keep trade routes from being pillaged making them seem like a gimmick (though even that would be relevant here if suboptimal turned on us). But, in this game, they've absolutely saved my skin, without question, and I heartily endorse their extensive use in any Archipelago game .



Here is the north, where I'm trying a somewhat-unlikely flanking maneuver against the TAD galley at Cuneiform. If it pillages, I'll trap it but not attack, hoping to eventually triple-attack it to kill it before it can promote. If it attacks us, it will die that much more quickly. I'll have to be wary of the TAD quad, though - it likely has +1 movement from the Royal Navy Dockyard, which would let it hit me if it doesn't shoot my bireme this turn and I then try to trap the galley. That bonus movement is why the critically-injured TAD galley got away in the west too, by the way - I actually just learned that was a thing this turn. Actually, that means that any of these ships that were built at a city with a Dockyard may be able to escape to the north unless I can cut them off somehow...which means I will be doing my best to do just that.

Do you know what the heck is going on with my overflow at Cuneiform? Last turn's bireme was at 55/65 before completion, so I should have had at least 10 hammers of overflow, right? I don't understand why the interface isn't displaying that - did I manage to lose the hammers somehow, or is the interface simply wrong and the city will complete this next bireme next turn? Either way, we shouldn't be in danger with respect to the CH build, which is 6t compared to the 9t left in the era.

[williams482]

Do you know what the heck is going on with my overflow at Cuneiform? Last turn's bireme was at 55/65 before completion, so I should have had at least 10 hammers of overflow, right? I don't understand why the interface isn't displaying that - did I manage to lose the hammers somehow, or is the interface simply wrong and the city will complete this next bireme next turn? Either way, we shouldn't be in danger with respect to the CH build, which is 6t compared to the 9t left in the era.

You're running the +100% card, right? 

Overflow management in this game is a whole big pot of nonsense. For whatever half-baked reason, policy card modifiers are subtracted from overflow, not divided out. So if Cuneiform gets 16h per turn (I dunno, just picking a number here), the card bumps that to 32 in to the bireme for a combined 87/65. The game takes that 22 overflow, subtracts the 16h generated by the +100% card, and leaves 6h of overflow for the next build. 

I don't know if this explains your discrepancy, but I'll take any opportunity to rant about how clumsily implemented that was.

[ljubljana]

So I'm running the +100% card and have another +50% from the Cothon. I was at 55/65 last turn (iirc), so at 20 hpt I should have been at 105/65, which, subtracting out 30 hammers from the Cothon and policy card, seems to give 10h of overflow. Would that 10h then get added to the base production on the following turn, and therefore boosted by the policy card and Cothon? If not, maybe I'll just end up at 60/65 next turn and this will all make sense, although it'd be pretty lame to lose the effects of the card/Cothon on those 10h for no adequately justified mechanical reason .

Wow, I sure hope TAD has no more ships in range of the fog and none of my riskily-placed biremes die. Quite a bit could turn on just a few combat rolls this round - if I'm right I'll have 8 reasonably-healthy biremes at Akkad, most with Embolon, and should trap and kill a few more TAD ships this turn. If I'm wrong or if TAD is hiding ships, I might end up with as few as 4(!) living biremes here. Slingers have -17 strength against ships and only 15 strength to begin with, so I have to at least be safe there, right? Fingers crossed...depending on how much damage those two 1-health TAD ships will do on offense, TAD could maybe take out a few biremes by sacrificing them, but that wouldn't be a terrible trade for us if so.

[Woden]

Turn 91-Vikings
Open the save to find that TAD was able to kill my longboat in the north. My longboats south of Akkad retreat to heal and wait for my quadrireme to come from the south. I have another longboat sailing from the east but I am thinking I might send him to see if there are pillaging opportunities along TAD's southern coast.

Here is my core...
   

I put a chop into another builder at Frigg, due next turn. When Divine Right finishes, I am going to put in Limes and Agoge and get some walls and archers out. I also need to get more longboats out. Slowly, I am starting to improve the production in my cities. Frigg will get another lumbermill in 2 turns and Thor is going to get a lumbermill on the forested hill. I might chop it but a lumbermill would be more production at this time and I think I will go for that right now. A chop would be good for a harbor or other district but I think I need walls and units, which would be overkill and I would lose overflow. Better to go with the higher yields. Odin will get a jungle chop on the jungle hill. That might go into a settler if I can get the card in place, not sure yet.

I need to prepare for Jongs showing up on my shore. Luckily, we should have a decent advanced notice of them coming. I am sending a longboat up to Call Me Al (sub's closest city) to look for ships gathering. Whenever sub finishes Mercenaries and upgrades to Jongs, he has probably a 7 or 8 turn travel time, maybe longer because he won't be able to enter the ocean (I think, not 100% on this). Here is the approach...
   

If I can, I am thinking of getting a few longboats up to the north and prepare to pillage and attack China's cities. If suboptimal attacks, he is going to have to decide if he wants to pursue my cities or defend his teammates. Also, I can pillage to gain some gold and science. I am going to go for Machinery next, then Castles for better walls. Balder will be toast but I can't lose my capital, even for a turn, because it would remove my Government Plaza and I would have to rebuild it and I am just finishing the Ancestral Hall. I don't think he could hold my capital, as I can attack it form land and he won't have the land army to defend it. One good thing right now is that Maritime Industries doesn't boost production for Jongs and Press Gangs is at Exploration and who knows where that is, so sub has to build all his Jongs without production boosts or he can faith buy them, which would waste Monumentality. 

Good thing it looks like you have Akkad and TAD/Kaiser handled, because I need to shift my focus to my east and prepare for an attack. It may not come and suboptimal will go after CMF/Marco or TAD/Kaiser but I don't think we can risk it. I will keep what I have in the western front but I don't thin I can bring more over for a while.

Edit: Also, sub/roland don't have friendships with anybody.

As for production overflow, it is wonky AF and doesn't really make sense. Williams482 is right, production boosts are subtracted from overflow first. Also, I don't believe overflow is added to your base but rather just added to production (no production boosts) but not 100% if you are building the same thing you overflowed.

[ljubljana]

Good thing it looks like you have Akkad and TAD/Kaiser handled

I hope so, a lot could still go wrong over here IMO. I'll have a much better sense of whether or not this is true once I see their combat rolls for this turn...

[Woden]

Turn 92-Vikings
Stupid production queue...I placed the campus at Odin last turn to lock the price in and then switched back to the Ancestral Hall. Well, since this game defaults back to the production queue because 1 or more people before me use it, it didn't change production back to the hall but rather put a turn into the campus and the hall is in the queue. Normally, not an issue but everything was timed and I need to finish the hall before I leave Oligarchy because I want the legacy card. I do have a builder that can chop a jungle next turn, so instead of delaying Divine Right, I will chop the hall to completion. It will waste a little production from not being able to put it into something with a boost, but it will have to do. I don't have this problem in PBEM18, so not sure what is going on here. Anyways, I spot something that might play a role in who suboptimal focuses on with his Jongs...
   

CMF settled a city on an island that suboptimal already has a few cities on. Not sure if this will push suboptimal towards CMF but might. Or at least it would make me consider CMF if I was suboptimal. 

In the west, TAD/Kaiser have fully retreated. Not much for ships around Akkad. Not sure if this is a regrouping or giving up. At least we will have a breather for a few turns. I send one of my longboats south to follow the others to scout a little bit to the west and look for pillage opportunities. 

Down by Hod (former Rapa Nui), a barb warrior came into range of my city defenses. I redlined with a city attack and killed with my warrior...
   

The quad starts working on the spearman. We have to be careful here as there is a sword lurking in the fog. Last known location is pinned and that is from a few turns ago. Warrior will probably defog a bit and maybe see if he can draw the sword to the city.

[ljubljana]

The quad starts working on the spearman. We have to be careful here as there is a sword lurking in the fog. Last known location is pinned and that is from a few turns ago. Warrior will probably defog a bit and maybe see if he can draw the sword to the city.

I have to wait a bit to play my turn until I'm done with some other commitments, but before I forget, things are actually looking pretty good for the "kill the camp with my settler" plan, if you're still open to that, especially if your warrior helps out with the spear. That could give me the ES breathing room I need to stay in Oligarchy, if we're worried enough about sub that that's worth doing. That means one less diplo slot compared to going to Monarchy and running Oligarchic Legacy (if that were an option), but that's not a huge loss honestly and might be smarter than trying to stop Jongs with unboosted caravels.

With Monarchy coming online soon, I guess I should start thinking about when to build the Intelligence Agency. That's very pricey, but a level of diplomatic visibility could help replace the Oligarchy bonus in a war with sub, and it also grants an extra trade route for Phoenicia. It's certainly not worthwhile before the capital's lighthouse (which I'm probably just going to buy so it doesn't have to come off of +150% hammers Magnus settlers) but maybe it'll eventually be worth getting.

After the next builder (which I need to buy for ES) and the lighthouse purchase, I think I'll start saving gold for caravel upgrades. I'm also open to the idea of doing that even sooner, though I thiiiiink we probably have enough time without it since my gold income is so strong.