[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

Turn 98-Vikings
Open the save to the Machinery boost. My 3rd archer is complete at Thor. It starts a 8-turn harbor. I chop a jungle at Odin and my first new settler will complete next turn...
   

Also note, it now T98 and I will mine my 1st non-resource hill in my core. I have 2 iron mines and one is on a hill, so second hill mined. If anybody is wondering why I am so backwards in my development with only 2 districts complete, having no hills will do that. At least I am starting to get lumbermills up everywhere. And I know, I do have two forested hills with lumbermills but still, too much flat land down here. I still haven't decided if it will be better to chop all the jungle or wait for lumbermills at Mercantilism. At least there are some minable flat land tiles in the form of iron and niter. Well, enough bitching, play the hand we are dealt. First settler will sail south, or I should say use my ability to embark/disembark to puddle jump to the southern tip of the island. Or we can try something crazy...
   

I have a couple of boats taking out a barb camp on this island south of England/Japan and it looks pretty decent. Lots of tundra but hilly tundra on the east. Also, some good resources. What if I continued sailing the 2 settlers I have pegged to go to the southern tip to establish a colony? Might be worth it to get a foot hold here. Let me know what you think? If I could get a golden age in the era after the next one, I could take monumentality and buy some settlers once I get a few cities established. Woudl probably need an army to fend off anybody else that is eyeing it (Russia) but could be a good colony.

As for attacking Mikasa...
   

I am thinking that I will poke around with 1 longboat while the others sail down and see if I can draw out any quads, maybe even decoy the exploring longboat to the east to draw any galleys over, leaving Mikasa fairly unguarded? Regardless, I think any attack on Mikasa is about 5 or 6 turns out. Need to more information on what his coast looks like and what kind of force he has in the area.

[ljubljana]

oh crap! I had a big stupid brain fart this turn and overwrote the farm at Linear A with the aqueduct to lock in the cost, even though I still needed it for the Feudalism inspiration!!! crap that was so dumb!

well, all it will cost is one builder charge, I think...luckily the Runic builder still has two left, so I'll just have to make another plains farm there in addition to the wheat farm. still though, I seriously cannot believe I did that 

1/5 of a builder means it's only worth like 20 hammers, which isn't so bad...but between this and the hundreds of beakers I wasted with the Stirrups eureka and the hundreds of gold I gave to roland for free, I'm really not happy with the number of unforced micro errors I've been making over the last few turns. Any thoughts on how I can stop myself from doing things like this? Or is it just the kind of habit one builds over time by making dumb mistakes like that over and over?

EDIT: I guess it could also be a reporting problem? Maybe if I write up my reports while I play the turn and force myself to document all my significant decisions before actually committing to them, I'll be able to spot the ones that don't actually have solid rationales behind them...

[ljubljana]

As for the tundra island south of TAD, I do think it would make a good spot for a colony, but I'm really worried about defending it from TAD/Kaiser, especially if we end up taking some Russian cities. I think if we have colonies in too many different areas at the same time, we might end up overstretched and tempt a stab - honestly I'm kind of already expecting one from TAD as soon as the DoF runs out anyways. It might make more sense to consolidate areas where we already expect to have some naval presence in 30t (e.g. the island south of our main island, the Oracle Bones island) than to stretch out further - we'll be much weaker if we have to have 8 ships in 4 different spots on t126 than if we can consolidate to 16 ships in 2 spots.

In a similar vein, I'm kind of thinking we probably can't afford to try to hold any Australian cities that my little westward attack manages to take. They'd be a really tempting target for TAD, and I need those ships back before t126 to defend Writing on the Wall and Geneva. Maybe if we can get a guarantee of more peace with TAD somehow (an alliance, maybe?) that could dissuade me, but right now I think I'd probably have to raze them. That's still a major setback to marco if we can get even one or two, of course, since they'd have to rebuild the settlers and the cost would escalate.

EDIT: I could probably be talked into the island south of TAD if you think we can defend it. Maybe a naval force positioned halfway between Writing on the Wall and the colonies could effectively defend both spots while shielding Geneva too? I'm not really sure how the logistics work with respect to naval warfare on oceans...I'm just going into this with the assumption that TAD will likely attack us again as soon as they can, and don't want to set ourselves up for losses if that does happen. I'm also nervous about potentially making a stab more likely with settlements that TAD views as too aggressive - if TAD loses that island and all the space between it and our main island, I don't think they'll have anywhere left to expand to, so they'll probably have to attack us just to have a chance to remain competitive.

EDIT2: Another way you could convince me is by arguing that we should plan to attack TAD next instead of roland, in which case this island would be a strong forward base rather than a huge defensive liability. I like our chances against sub/roland much better than I do against TAD/Kaiser, since roland has a) no real navy b) an exposed position relative to our navy and c) hasn't really proven themself militarily, unlike TAD's team which has two top-tier civs for naval war with high milpower and very experienced players at the helm that are likely to spend the next 30 turns building up even more instead of trying to grind down CMF. But we might be better off going after TAD anyways simply because I think TAD is much more likely to stab us while we attack sub/roland than sub/roland are to stab us while we attack TAD.

[ljubljana]

By the way, if you want, you're totally welcome to settle the Abugida/Nsibidi sites instead of me, if you want more spots with at least okay production. The only reasons I pinned/named them are a) they are in range for a super 2f/4h TR with Cuneiform and not much else left is and b) I don't think that pinned IZ cluster would work if we had to split the area between two civs, but they're also much closer to your capital than mine so if you think they'd make more sense as part of Norway we can totally do that instead. Ideally if we went with that plan I would ultimately gift you Demotic at some point to make the IZs work, but idk if that would count as "city gifting cheese"...

[Woden]

As for the tundra island south of TAD, I do think it would make a good spot for a colony, but I'm really worried about defending it from TAD/Kaiser, especially if we end up taking some Russian cities. I think if we have colonies in too many different areas at the same time, we might end up overstretched and tempt a stab - honestly I'm kind of already expecting one from TAD  as soon as the DoF runs out anyways. It might make more sense to consolidate areas where we already expect to have some naval presence in 30t (e.g. the island south of our main island, the Oracle Bones island) than to stretch out further - we'll be much weaker if we have to have 8 ships in 4 different spots on t126 than if we can consolidate to 16 ships in 2 spots.

In a similar vein, I'm kind of thinking we probably can't afford to try to hold any Australian cities that my little westward attack manages to take. They'd be a really tempting target for TAD, and I need those ships back before t126 to defend Writing on the Wall and Geneva. Maybe if we can get a guarantee of more peace with TAD somehow (an alliance, maybe?) that could dissuade me, but right now I think I'd probably have to raze them. That's still a major setback to marco if we can get even one or two, of course, since they'd have to rebuild the settlers and the cost would escalate.

EDIT: I could probably be talked into the island south of TAD if you think we can defend it. Maybe a naval force positioned halfway between Writing on the Wall and the colonies could effectively defend both spots while shielding Geneva too? I'm not really sure how the logistics work with respect to naval warfare on oceans...I'm just going into this with the assumption that TAD will likely attack us again as soon as they can, and don't want to set ourselves up for losses if that does happen. I'm also nervous about potentially making a stab more likely with settlements that TAD views as too aggressive - if TAD loses that island and all the space between it and our main island, I don't think they'll have anywhere left to expand to, so they'll probably have to attack us just to have a chance to remain competitive.

EDIT2: Another way you could convince me is by arguing that we should plan to attack TAD next instead of roland, in which case this island would be a strong forward base rather than a huge defensive liability. I like our chances against sub/roland much better than I do against TAD/Kaiser, since roland has a) no real navy b) an exposed position relative to our navy and c) hasn't really proven themself militarily, unlike TAD's team which has two top-tier civs for naval war with high milpower and very experienced players at the helm that are likely to spend the next 30 turns building up even more instead of trying to grind down CMF. But we might be better off going after TAD anyways simply because I think TAD is much more likely to stab us while we attack sub/roland than sub/roland are to stab us while we attack TAD.

I think you are right, if Kaiser/TAD attack after the DoF ends, they would be exposed and hard to defend. It will take some time to get them going and might not be worth the effort at this time. Better to fill the island and get those cities up and running before the future conflict.

By the way, if you want, you're totally welcome to settle the Abugida/Nsibidi sites instead of me, if you want more spots with at least okay production. The only reasons I pinned/named them are a) they are in range for a super 2f/4h TR with Cuneiform and not much else left is and b) I don't think that pinned IZ cluster would work if we had to split the area between two civs, but they're also much closer to your capital than mine so if you think they'd make more sense as part of Norway we can totally do that instead. Ideally if we went with that plan I would ultimately gift you Demotic at some point to make the IZs work, but idk if that would count as "city gifting cheese"...

I think it is better for you to settle them for a couple of reasons: (1) you can get settlers out much quicker than I can and (2) it is better to have at least one of our civilizations develop a nice snowball instead of having two average civilizations and I think if you can get a nice production core with those cities, it would be the better play. Don't mind me bitching about lack of production. It is what it is. I should be able to get some nice cities going once I can get Feudalism juiced builders and a little gold to buy a few more productive tiles. I am also going to work on getting my faith income up a bit, which will help if I take Jesuit Education and build the Grand Master's Chapel. I can supplement production with faith purchases. I am also thinking of taking Meeting Houses as the 2nd belief now that DotF is taken. It will add a little production in the few cities I will have holy sites built. It will take some time but I can get my civilization going.

[ljubljana]

Well...I certainly can produce settlers quickly, but I'm also not really optimizing for that right now. Do you think my current focus on builders/lighthouses/traders is the correct snowball play? I'm tentatively planning on a wave of settlers after those are all done, if we have enough time to both do that and build up military to prepare for the DoFs ending, but maybe that's not quick enough. In theory I could still swap Linear A over to a settler, it just seems like the builder and trader will pay back quicker, especially now that I have to waste a builder charge on the Farm of Shame to finish off the Feudalism inspiration ...

[Woden]

Well...I certainly can produce settlers quickly, but I'm also not really optimizing for that right now. Do you think my current focus on builders/lighthouses/traders is the correct snowball play? I'm tentatively planning on a wave of settlers after those are all done, if we have enough time to both do that and build up military to prepare for the DoF ending, but maybe that's not quick enough. In theory I could still swap Linear A over to a settler, it just seems like the builder and trader will pay back quicker, especially now that I have to waste a builder charge on the Farm of Shame to finish off the Feudalism inspiration ...

Yes, focus on lighthouses/traders/builder right now and then do a wave of settlers a little down the road. You can send some trade routes to my capital for more gold for upgrades.

I was looking over the map and I think I might take the island east of Balder, unless you still need it to reach a Golden Age. Also, for my religion, I said I might take Meeting Houses but I actually think the belief that provide +2 per city might be better. It would increase my faith production, which would get me more missionaries and I can convert your western island cities fairly early, which would protect against getting converted to Kaiser's religion and Crusade.

[ljubljana]

With respect to the island east of Balder, I'd say to go for it - I'm done with ES for this era, and I think next era I'm going to go for a Dark Age for Isolationism and Twilight Valor (if you think that's a good idea). Just as long as the loyalty situation over there with Indonesia/China isn't too bad - that and defensibility concerns were two of the main reasons I put Oracle Bones where it is even though the resulting city site is somewhat weaker. I don't think the loyalty was too bad the last I checked (-9 or so depending on the exact site), but it will probably worsen as surrounding islands get filled up and the Chinese core continues to grow in population.

[ljubljana]

Turn 100 - Phoenicia



Not much to report domestically. Hieratic finishes the trader, which moves to Geneva to boost its pace towards a Serfdom builder; Hieratic then starts the fifth builder itself. I discover Military Engineering, and lay down the discounted CH at Demotic during the one turn in which I can do so before discovering Apprenticeship. Looks like we have roughly 5 turns to go until Feudalism, both to get the last two () farms up and finish the civic research itself. Next turn, I'll buy the lighthouse in Cuneiform; Linear A will start on the trader when the builder is one turn from completion to stall until Serfdom comes in.

Internationally, though...



Looks like CMF had neither a knight upgrade ready to go nor any navy in the area to combat sub's attack, despite having scouted it last turn. Whether that means they were taken by surprise or have decided to pull back and defend at the choke by Vladimir Monomakh, who can say - the latter certainly seems more likely, but it'll be hard to tell until we can spot some Russian ships. Either way, Shikishima's totally doomed and will fall next turn no matter how many Russian galleys are in the fog.



Mikasa got its walls this turn, though, which is bad news for us. How many ships do you think it would take to crack it now? Probably not more than the 12 we'll eventually have available, but we'd need to catch Russia with its navy off in the north to actually make it happen, I think. We could also try turning east to Knyaz Suvurov, I guess, but there's no way that city's more than a handful of turns away from walls itself.



In the west (east? the west from our perspective, at least), I'm maybe 3-4 turns out from attacking this MPF city, which appears to have been founded as a niter colony - nice, that means it'll be all the more damaging to have it burned. Alternatively, and feel free to stop me if this seems crazy - if we can take this city, I may keep it until its loyalty hits 100 and then gift it to TAD in 20t or so with 30g for 30g attached - the message there being that it is in exchange for renewing our DoF. If they take it and then renew the DoF, we'll be in a great position to attack China with a bunch of frigates in 45t without fear of a stab from the west, which is the biggest thing that could go wrong with that plan IMO. I'd gladly trade a single city that we couldn't have realistically held anyways for the chance to pull off a potentially game-winning move like that one free of interference. Obviously they could still totally stab us and take the city but not renew, but we wouldn't actually lose anything other than the site itself if they did, and I'd still rather TAD have this spot than Australia given the CMF/marco team's empire score lead. That's a much better outcome than losing the city in a war with TAD that we didn't want, anyways. I guess I could also attach a request for them to join the war against CMF (if one is still ongoing at that point) to make sure we at least get something concrete in exchange for the city, though I think we'd have to get it ceded to gift it to TAD anyways, so maybe that's not actually possible.

What do you think is the right approach for us to take militarily in the upcoming turns? I'm kind of tempted to show off our ships, do a little damage, maybe trap part of their navy (or at least cut it off from the Russian mainland) if we can, and then have you offer peace + 30g-for-30g in exchange for maybe 1 or 2 Russian cities. CMF would probably have to take it to retain any kind of chance to compete, and peacing out early would make it a little less likely that sub completely conquers Russia and then runs away with the game. If we destroy CMF's navy and commit to a longer war of (attempted) conquest, I think sub would get the vast majority of the spoils by virtue of having Jongs to blast down city walls and enough ground troops to set up sieges and actually take cities on the Russian mainland. There's really only so much progress we can expect to make with only melee ships against targets other than CMF's navy, and I'm not sure we want to see Russia completely collapse if we won't be the main beneficiaries.

[ljubljana]

oh yeah one more thing:



What do you think the deal is with this? If TAD stabs us, they'll lose this trade route and therefore won't actually gain a CS bonus in combat against us from the diplomatic visibility, right? So that means TAD is probably just running this for the gold? If they are going to get a combat bonus from it in the event of a war, I think I'll have to run a TR of my own back to their capital, even though I really don't want to.