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[SPOILERS] Chevalier Mal Fet and Marcopolothefraud lead a Soviet Down Under

This was a great analysis and read, CMF! Thanks for being so detailed with it.

Back in November, I raged about how cohesive Indonesian abilities were - with great district adjacencies, unstoppable Jongs, and housing-boosting Kampungs. Now it looks like Suboptimal will throw away both of the latter two advantages.

Still...I have the smallest military score in the game, and my empire score is less than half of yours, CMF. I think my strategic blunders have been even worse than Sub's.

I'm especially worried about my eastern flank. We know that Kaiser/Archduke have a Declaration of Friendship with us right now, but Norway/Phoenicia might go after my right flank, given my outstretched city placements and the fact that I'm a newbie. Even if we exit this war alive (and hopefully still in the leading position), I'm worried that you might find yourself shackled to a corpse, and that'll be no fun on your end.
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(April 6th, 2021, 16:59)marcopolothefraud Wrote: This was a great analysis and read, CMF! Thanks for being so detailed with it.

Back in November, I raged about how cohesive Indonesian abilities were - with great district adjacencies, unstoppable Jongs, and housing-boosting Kampungs. Now it looks like Suboptimal will throw away both of the latter two advantages.

Serious question: Hasn't he thrown away the first advantage as well? I looked over my screenshots of Indonesia. Not one district on Sakhilin is coastal. No Holy Sites, nothing. Call Me Al has the one (admittedly pretty nice) campus by the reef, but his holy site is nowhere to be seen. Now, it's true The Obvious Child might be on a bay somewhere back there, and we know nothing at all about Diamonds, which is in the fog, but neither one of those can have more than one district, right? We'd see it in his empire score. 

So basically, thus far out of Indonesia, sub has gotten: 

- 4 faith per turn from his capital and the conquered city-state (or I bet he'd have moved that inland too)
- 1 kampung (at the city-state)
- 1 okayish campus
- a handful of purchased quadriremes? 
- a grand total of 4 jongs to terrify his enemies. 

Like, jongs are the end-all-be-all of Indonesia and it turns out sub decided to more or less ignore them. He's at I believe 8 cities, 4 of them tiny, 1 the crappy city-state, and he'll get up 10 with 2 occupied tiny size 1 cities once he takes my colonies. What's his plan after that? Marco, I seriously think that Indonesia is very shortly going to be in a worse position than Australia.

Quote:Still...I have the smallest military score in the game, and my empire score is less than half of yours, CMF. I think my strategic blunders have been even worse than Sub's.

I'm especially worried about my eastern flank. We know that Kaiser/Archduke have a Declaration of Friendship with us right now, but Norway/Phoenicia might go after my right flank, given my outstretched city placements and the fact that I'm a newbie. Even if we exit this war alive (and hopefully still in the leading position), I'm worried that you might find yourself shackled to a corpse, and that'll be no fun on your end.


You do have a tiny empire score, but you haven't had the advantage that I have of all this vast tundra and the perfect gameplan to turn tundra into more faith into more settlers into more tundra into more faith, and all the while all the faith ALSO doubles as production. You can see the effect of the snowball - the too-early monuments and campuses drove up maintenance costs and ironically made you research TOO quickly, without the underlying empire to build what you'd researched. But lesson learned! Australia will develop better now. 

I certainly don't think I'm shackled to a corpse. I think we're at the point where we're trying to stand Australia up independently, and the best way will be:

1)Settling the rest of your territory - check. More than enough settlers already. 
2)Getting a fleet in place to defend it - In progress. I'm also worried about your eastern flank, since I can't use my main fleet to defend it, and with the DoF between Wodenjana and the Central Powers we  might have Viking raiders there soon. Do not be tempted to build infrastructure. Build ships until we KNOW it's safe. Galleys are free with conscription, literally cannot have too many. 
3)Get productive infrastructure into the new cities. Grow the pops to work on good tiles with mines and lumber mills, etc. Build holy sites with high  adjacencies where possible, and double it with scripture. Everything Russia is doing is also possible for Australia, it will just take some lead time. But, man oh man, MBDTF is going to be SO GOOD once you convert it! 
4)Once the base in in place we can more or less pursue our plans. I'm contemptlating a joint settler push across that southeastern continent, if we can get peace. Lots of tundra for monumentality -> settler -> chop lavra -> faith -> monumentality so I can snowball basically all the way across it in a heartbeat. 

The other possible option, maybe even possible to pursue simultaneously, is for Australia to concentrate on defense against Japan/England, get peace/sink the Viking/Punic fleet, and roll Indonesia back to his homeland. Take and pillage anything that can build a ship, and then more or less leave suboptimal to rot in his tiny inland empire with China's Wonderful World of Sandbox. 

Woden's also made mistakes just as bad or worse than Australia/Indonesia. Woden ahs a tiny navy and no development at all, he's behind on expansion, behind on era score, behind on research. We've been at war with Norway for TEN TURNS. Australia has literally no navy and the entire Russian fleet has been anchored in the north. In that time, have we seen a single Viking raider come by, even for a sniff? At this point, as far as I know Woden has gotten literally just the one campus pillage for all of his longships. Otherwise he's used them more or less as cheap galleys to zerg into England to take a minor city-state off the Archduke. 

That, uh, is NOT how I would have played the Vikings.
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Chevalier, you really do have a gift when it comes to writing. I loved the tribute to Robert Jordan, you were reasonably close to his writing style (I've spent thousands of hours reading or listening to the Wheel of Time audiobooks and it's not easy to imitate without turning into a parody). I would comment further if I weren't heavily spoilered on this game - loving the detailed reports! thumbsup
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Quote:Chevalier, you really do have a gift when it comes to writing. I loved the tribute to Robert Jordan, you were reasonably close to his writing style (I've spent thousands of hours reading or listening to the Wheel of Time audiobooks and it's not easy to imitate without turning into a parody). I would comment further if I weren't heavily spoilered on this game - loving the detailed reports! [Image: thumbsup.gif]

Thank you for your kind words! Honestly I only got into Wheel of Time because Sanderson finished it, and A Memory of Light was everything I wanted (I LOVE fantasy novels with over 150 pages of just detailed, tactical battle where you can follow the ebb and flow of the fight, you know who's where, doing what, but also full of images of fighting and it all makes sense - not many like that), but now when I reread I find myself liking Jordan's portions a lot more than Sanderson's. I wanted to try and get as close to the tone as I could. 

Obviously, I can only do normal turn reports for a few weeks or so before I get bored and need to change things up to challenge myself. Hence why I do pastiches of other writers or reports entirely in verse or that one time I made a video. 

Anyway, thanks for keeping the lurker thread active! I'm a little sad that the Civ VI lurking community isn't as lively as the IV one, because I love reading the comments from the peanut gallery. Can't wait to get into this lurker thread after the game is done. 

ON WITH THE TURN:

Turn 98

The new launcher has absolutely borked FRAPS, so I upgrade to Bandicam after some battling with the start of the turn. So no capture of the countdown, but 2 turns remain until the Medieval Era. I'm thinking to take Monumentality again - I debated the one that gave me culture for districts, saving my faith for Grand Master's Chapel attacks, but ultimately concluded the snowballing possibilities with Magnus and Monumentality settlers are too great to pass up. I WOULD blow Chinese culture out of the water, though, if I tried, since I have districts complete in every single city. 




We continue our slow exodus south. The settler will be at Point Luck on turn 99, which I expect is the turn suboptimal will declare war up at Shikishima. We'll safely escape to the mainland, where my plan is to use the refugees eventually to establish a tundra city on the far side of the bay near Mikasa. 

Borodino finishes a 1-turn galley (I guess overflow from the lighthouse? I dunno) and immediately starts a 2-turn galley:




My military score has risen to 434, not counting the latest two galleys, which actually pushes us to 494. The really concerning thing is that Woden, ljubljana, and Archduke have all continued frantic ship production and now boast scores of 364 (up 90 points from last round - 3 longships intended for a Russian attack? Are they trying to move in concert with sub?), 602 (consistent 11-10 point improvements minimum since turn 87, up from 308 at that time), and 443 (up from a low of 265 on turn 93, roughly the time that they made peace). I'm starting to seriously worry that I'm facing a 3 vs 1 here, which I think is a bit unfair - Ljubljana has expanded just as much as I have, has built more ships than I have, and has just as high research as I have, so why should Archduke sign a DoF with HIM and not with ME? Especially since I'm facing jongs. frown We haven't hurt anyone this game, bah. 

Well, they won't get me with galleys, and I can build frigates better than any one team, so hopefully we can break apart this baffling Russophobic coalition. 

Down south, Oryol finishes the campus:




I decide a library is the best investment of the available choices of granary, monument, walls, or units. Walls are obviously idiotic since no one will ever invade here before the end of the game, builder needs are presently being covered by the smaller cities to the east, and while I would love to reinforce culture (since Marco and I have the net lowest culture in the game - Australia should have the opportunity to build monuments right after this war, hopefully) or growth, I don't need more pop for a little bit since I just hit size 4. A library speeds me on the road to Caravels more than any other build, which is the best way this city has of contributing militarily at the moment. It will also bump up Great Scientist points to the highest generation in the game, and I really, REALLY want Hildegaard in the medieval era - she'd be worth an astonishing +16 science at Petropavlosk, a +25% gain over current rates! 

I will even faith snipe her again, if it comes to that. 

Onwards to the colonies, where my sword is evacuating:




I realized this turn that I made an error with my Jong Prediction Pins, since suboptimal of course moves after me, he should reach the turn 98 pin on turn 97, meaning he'll be in position to attack on turn 99, not turn 100. 




That's a bit disappointing, since it's 1 turn before walls finish, but if he doesn't have a galley ready to take the city on taht turn I should get walls up anyway and get a free shot. Actually, shit, this might be my only shot since if I finished them beforehand he'd just wipe out the walls before I got a chance to fire. So even though the city will certainly fall on 99 or 100, this way I might get a chance to do a little bit of damage first. Neato! 

I'm really, really tempted to go with Ovid and see if my prediction of the Jongs' location was correct, but I decide that if suboptimal thinks he has the element of surprise, it's better not to disillusion him. I fumble around with Ovid instead and let sub think he has one more turn, possibly, before I "realize" I'm under attack. Lurkers can see the pins above and judge for themselves if I was right, if I see jongs on my turn 99 (now turn 98) pin I'll assume I was always correct:




I also park Ovid in what I assume is the most obnoxious square possible, unless sub wants to declare war a turn early. He really should, he loses nothing by it, but I know he hates altering plans once he's set them so maybe he'll still delay, which would be a hilarious use of a great writer. 

Over on the western front:




The quad heads out to escort in my second archer, which will take station on the island. My criticism of Woden last round also twigged me to a good use of my warriors - garrisoning Mikasa's vulnerable coastal improvements against raids, duh. I reposition them. I will keep my fleet hovering here, between Point Luck and Mikasa, and will need to decide how to commit if I face simultaneous attack. The priority is Rodeo, not Mikasa, which is an acceptable loss and can keep itself safe besides. But maybe I can get reinforcements here more quickly...

After much waffling, I move the trader out of Petropavlosk. It'll just grow too fast if I run the trade route, and I'll lose Work Ethic for a bit. Better to delay, and run my NEXT trader here to grow to size 4. Instead, I much more sensibly move it to Navarin:




Between that and some tile cannibalism, Navarin is going to be eligble for a harbor in 6 turns, on turn 104. That will be 185 hammers at that time, which is about an 8-turn build, so I can get ships out of here as soon as turn 112! In essence, Woden and ljubljana have 14 turns to get here, overwhelm the 2 archers, 1 quad, walls, and several galleys, before they have to deal with Mikasa AND Navarin spitting out 2-turn galleys. 1000 combined milscore or no, they just wont' be able to get the hulls here to beat me at that point. 

So the west is pretty solid. How about the East? 




A LOT of Japanese sniffing around, a bad sign for 12 turns from now. We have 3 cities to defend the outpost of SFFB:




Oslyabya and MBDTF can both get out galleys and quads incredibly rapidly, between Work Ethic and Marco's bonus. MBDTF is excellent even before conversion, but within ~8 turns marco should have the missionary over here to convert it and pick up an instant +9 hammers (+18 once you can run scripture! Beeline there after you get Monarchy!). This front is more distant from Phoenicia and Norway, but by no means inaccessible, and there's a remote chance they'd try an assault on both wings at once. More likely, though, is England and Japan descending on Australia - why else is Archduke building ships and rejecting my friendships? What's he going to do with them, attack suboptimal? (actually, they could easily take that northeast city-state...ah well). I think the narrow terrain around SFFB favors us, though. We  can pack in galleys and replace them faster than they can be sunk, especially with no jong spearheads. 

In 8 turns I will use Oslyabya's new navy to seize Yerevan. I will also faith purchase a settler next turn, settle Dmitrii Donskoi, and chop out a lavra. All three lavra-fueled shipyards will then begin galley production to support Marco. Those ships will be operationally entirely his. I will focus on the west and northwest.

Here's the main danger to Australia:




Marco, it looks like you sent your fresh galley east, but I think it'd be better served going west to Rodeo. It's a long sail to SFFB and we have jongs capable of reaching Rodeo in 3 turns if Suboptimal rushes past my cities and goes for it. I don't think he'll do that but the bottom line is we have <10 turns to get defenses in place at Rodeo. Let SFFB depend on the other cities for support - Rodeo is much more important. 

While I'm in Australia, Marco has two settlers out, so I pin what I think the two cities on the peninsula should be:




Both would get crazy adjacencies from their holy sites which would solve all production problems in this barren terrain. To get them up, there are 3 forests available to chop - the early finish on the holy sites will more than repay the cost of giving up the forests. It'd be worth waiting for Magnus to do the chops, though, since Magnus gives half a district instead of only 1/3 of one. Food can come from the sea, like in Russia. Basically, these would be Russian cities, and I think you can see how effective those are turning out to be! 

Once we have the galleys to defend the cities, we can settle them. 

News abroad. Kaiser finished the Ancestral Hall, so we can expect him to finally expand off 5 cities:




He has almost no pop in his 5 cities, too. Entirely dependent on those powerful adjacencies but he won't be building many frigates with that empire. 

Ljubljana is playing Phoenicia right:




He has lots of 8 or 10 adjacency Cothons, I wager, and each one is giving him gold (50 gpt) and research. The good news is Russia is keeping pace in research and expansion even without gimmicks like that, and unlike ljubljana I have way more faith and, I bet, more production. My pop is also significantly higher. But ljubljana is doing well - he's leveraging the Cothons into a huge fleet, a massive wave of expansion (he is second only to Russia in city count, and will move into first soon when I lose the colonies), and has state of the art of research alongside Japan and Russia. Unlike my scathing remarks on suboptimal, roland, and Woden, I think ljub is doing a fine job. 

In the excitement of jongs I forgot to report Roland finished Mahabodi and evangelized:




Wats is a good pick and one I probably would have taken myself. But he once again wasted a ton of era score (he's overshot the mark by about 20 points!), while I'm going to save my second apostle for hte era flip. I will likely take Meeting Houses as a consolation prize, though Woden will get his religion soon and might take those (taht would be dumb, since he would then ahve to build an absurd amount of holy sites and expensive shrines and temples to make use of it - never be worth it), with Stupas as a backup. 

Here is the Indonesian "island" empire, to reinforce my points from yesterday:




No coastal cities, no coastal districts, at a time when he has the premier naval unit in the game. There's no helping some people. 

Anyway, after he takes Shikishima, sub will face a choice - either commit to the east, against Australia, or go right for the jugular and lunge south at Russia:




Now, if -I- were sub, I'd first of all have brought about 6 more jongs. But I'd go south while I have the advantage - I want to get to Russia's core and burn as much of it as I can before he can get to Frigates. Australia won't last long without Russian support, but Russia can fight me hard even if I take out some outlying Australian cities. So figure sub will come south: This is designated Case Luck. 

But he might go for the nearby Rodeo instead, which looks tempting. He would have easier initial gains here, but long-term this would probably be a weaker choice. However, we have to honor the threat. I have designated this scenario Case Matilda. Point Matilda is where I think the strategic defense of Australia should rest - spam galleys in that area, Marco, and you can hold sub away from Rodeo long enough for the Russian navy to reposition. Then he'll never get anywhere. But you need the initial forces in place - if we lose Rodeo, sub will split us in half and Ilmatic will be entirely dependent upon its own galley production for defense. 

That wouldn't be fatal but we'd have to launch aggressive attacks on Sub's rear near Rodeo, so he could only divert two jongs or so to the "offensive" against Ilmatic. But recapturing Rodeo would be extremely difficult before Frigates, and it'd be a base for Indonesian upgrades and faith purchases. Sub has 50 fpt so we can expect a new jong every 12 turns or so (600 faith), hsi income is 16 gold per turn, but Roland's is 45, so combined 60 - that's a new upgrade for his quads every 3 turns or so. 

I think I've exhausted my material for the day, so here's the daily overviews:




Sevastopol finished a builder, which created fishing nets to speed up size 4. The next builder is intended to work on the Feudalism boost - I need 4 farms for Feudalism. Right now, though, I'm chasing Mercenaries, so I will get an archer out of Navarin (to help with defense and inspire Machinery), then I just need 2 more units. Chariots are 3 turn builds, so I will need to start a pair soon. Then they can become knights later and buff city defense. 

West:




Note that Navarin's growth is out of date. 

Australia:


I Think I'm Gwangju Like It Here

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Thanks for the analysis! I will reposition Illmatic's galley to the west as soon as I can.

It seems that you think losing Rodeo is strategically worse than losing Flower Boy, even though Flower Boy's terrain is more valuable, because of Rodeo's position. After thinking it over...I'd say I probably have to agree.
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I got up early this morning and looked at everyone's present military scores. I used that to compile a rough Order of Battle for the 6 possible combatants on the spreadsheet:




suboptimal

Known: 4 swords
4 jongs
1 slinger
1 quad
1 galley

suspected: Everything else. 

roland

lol

ljubljana

Pretty much entirely conjecture. We know for certain he has the lone warrior, Ulysses, plus at least 2 biremes. Everything else is speculation, under "worst case scenario" assumptions that it's basically all his navy.

Woden

I know of one warrior healing at Rapa Nui and one longship that stalked my galleys back to Shikishima before vanishing a few turns ago. This is almost entirely speculation. 

I also forgot my galleys that I finished at Borodino and Knyaz Suvurov.

Anyway, we are very badly outnumbered, and it's apparent that we face long odds. But a couple of points in our favor:

1)Our biggest advantage is our production capacity, which is literally world-class. Galleys can be built cheaply in 4 Russian cities and by "cheaply" they are 2 turn builds or less. So Russian strength will be increasing by a minimum of 2 galleys per turn. That is more than enough to replace any losses any single civ can inflict. Fighting both Indonesian jongs and a powerful Norwegian/Phoenician assault would get 'sticky' but I think we could do it. In less than 14 turns Navarin, Yerevan, and Dmitrii Donskoi will also all be online as shipbuilding facilities. As far as I know those 7 will outweigh the entire Indonesian empire, which will be able to build ships from Call Me Al and the two captured city-states. :P 

Australia will have 10 turns' of boosted production. I hope at the end of that time MBDTF at least will be converted to FWHW and will have a monstrous work ethic holy site. The College Dropout regrettably will need to spend most of those 10 turns on ships, but hopefully a window will open up to get its holy site down at some point, which would add, what, 8 production to the city? It will also be possible, once the Blueprint reaches size 7, to purchase a sea tile to the southeast and make that city into a shipyard as well, which I think is a superior choice to the Commercial Hub. Not sold on that, though. 

2)Our terrain is, relatively, defensible. Mikasa is the only city I have vulnerable to the raiding team, and it will be able to put up one heck of a fight against anything but all of both their navies showing up at once. Australia's east is defendable from a single tile, where I'm going to park my galley until Australian reinforcements arrive. That tile can only be attacked from two places, and if it's backed with two ships, then any bireme that enters will in turn be subject to two attacks. The north has two narrow passages at Point Luck and Point Matilda for jongs to attack from.

3)suboptimal is an uninspired admiral, Woden is cautious and methodical, and ljubljana is inexperienced. I think there will be mistakes made that we can exploit, such as splitting of forces, going for too many objectives, keeping ships away from the theater of war on irrelevant tasks, not building follow-on forces, etc. 

4)Coalition warfare is difficult. There will be fits and starts and they will not be able to coordinate with each other, meaning we probably won't face all those ships at once. That lets us meet each threat in turn with our entire navies coordinating. 

On the whole, I think I'm as ready as I'll ever be when suboptimal declares war next turn.
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Civ4 lurker threads are actually pretty dead too. There may have been more recent lurker activity in the Civ6 subforums actually.

Are giving up the two nothern cities because the terrain err water there is too narrow for engaging enemies with many ships at once? Also what are the specs of the Jongs vs. your ships?
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Turn 98

[Image: KInBRcO.jpg]

The Blueprint finishes a Builder, which moves to a Stone tile in Illmatic. It also buys a Missionary with 150 faith. I'm probably going to chop the Stone tile into a Galley next turn; if I improved it, it would negatively impact my Campus yields.

MBDTF finished a Quadrireme and started a Galley; Flower Boy chopped out a Quadrireme after I harvested the woods. Those two Quadriremes probably tanked my gold income, and I requested 10 gold from CMF. I still don't have Conscription for some godforsaken reason...I'm wasting 8 gold/turn on unit maintenance. That will probably drop to just 2 gold/turn once I unlock Divine Right, though. I'll still be losing 0.5 gold per turn, but that's negligible enough to ignore.
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Excellent, except for the gold. All your production times will drop next turn when suboptimal declares war following my turn, I expect. So that builder is popping in 3, LET's galley in 3, etc. So 3 new galleys next turn, giving you 4, and then maybe even 3 the turn after that? Giving you 7, which will be just in time to hold. If we're lucky, though, suboptimal will send his jongs down to me. I want to fight him.

If he does so, then you can probably
- finish the holy site at TCD quickly to boost some yields
- Focus most of your fleet on the Japanese side.

Make sure to improve your two available plantations and two available silver mines, together that will be +10 gold and will get Australia into the black. I would prioritize those for available builder charges (oh, I see the one at LET is already improved, excellent), because Aussie gold is going to become an Achilles' heel - it will be the main limiting factor in our upgrades.

But overall the situation looks serious but not critical. The next ten turns or so will be make or break vis a vis jongs, then we can focus on the next inevitable crisis.
I Think I'm Gwangju Like It Here

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Regarding the District Discount calculator in the spreadsheet, it's not working because the counts of "placed" districts are all zero. The way that's set up, "placed" is all placed districts, completed or otherwise. It could be adjusted such that only incomplete districts should be tracked there, if that makes more sense.
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