[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

Okay, sounds good to me. Ideally, we'd want this war to end with those two cities going over to suboptimal to rein CMF in a bit, but with sub not actually making any more gains into CMF's core. I think that's probably where we're headed given the current state of play - I'm sure sub will attempt to break through, but I think CMF has a good chance to hold them off at this point even with us tying down a bunch of their forces. My only worry is about what will happen if sub's offensive stalls out, they make peace, and we're left to face CMF alone - if we're not at peace with them in 20t, we could have a ton of problems given the double-team from TAD and sub we're already somewhat likely to face then. That might be a 10t from now problem rather than a right now problem, though.

I'm a little worried about this ending up like the TAD war, where rejecting the initial peace offer causes CMF to reconsider accepting peace at all and leaves us as the ones trapped in an unproductive stalemate war. I don't think that'll happen if sub is still on the offense, but again, it might well happen if they make peace with CMF ceding those two cities.

hmm. CMF is going to beat us to frigates though, probably by 10t or so, and has way more niter than we do. I actually think Hod/Oracle Bones could be at risk if that happens and CMF manages to stalemate sub in the north, and they'd definitely be at risk if CMF and sub made peace and CMF beats us to frigates. Maybe we actually should make peace before this conflict threatens to derail our development push...

[Woden]

I actually think it would be better for CMF to regain control of both those cities. Suboptimal has more cities on that island and if CMF gains a foot hold, they will be in an endless war with each other. Nothing slows you down more than endless war with another player and it slows down the other player too.

[Woden]

Okay, sounds good to me. Ideally, we'd want this war to end with those two cities going over to suboptimal to rein CMF in a bit, but with sub not actually making any more gains into CMF's core. I think that's probably where we're headed given the current state of play - I'm sure sub will attempt to break through, but I think CMF has a good chance to hold them off at this point even with us tying down a bunch of their forces. My only worry is about what will happen if sub's offensive stalls out, they make peace, and we're left to face CMF alone - if we're not at peace with them in 20t, we could have a ton of problems given the double-team from TAD and sub we're already somewhat likely to face then. That might be a 10t from now problem rather than a right now problem, though.

I'm a little worried about this ending up like the TAD war, where rejecting the initial peace offer causes CMF to reconsider accepting peace at all and leaves us as the ones trapped in an unproductive stalemate war. I don't think that'll happen if sub is still on the offense, but again, it might well happen if they make peace with CMF ceding those two cities.

hmm. CMF is going to beat us to frigates though, probably by 10t or so, and has way more niter than we do. I actually think Hod/Oracle Bones could be at risk if that happens and CMF manages to stalemate sub in the north, and they'd definitely be at risk if CMF and sub made peace and CMF beats us to frigates. Maybe we actually should make peace before this conflict threatens to derail our development push...

Sounds good, send an offer of peace.

[ljubljana]

Turn 104 - Phoenicia



Yeah, CMF sent me the same offer of peace, and I took it. Maybe I'm being too cautious for my own good, or maybe I'm just really out of it today (to be fair, I am pretty out of it today...) but I think circumstances have changed here and staying at war with them no longer reeeeally serves our interest (they've crash-built enough navy to keep us at bay) while carrying some risk of spiraling into an unwanted conflict that ties down our ships when the DoFs lapse. Should we send CMF a DoF though, or pointedly decline to do so and keep troops in theater to make CMF at least worry that a stab might be possible? That, I'm not sure about...at least if we can get a DoF we can be secure in the knowledge that we won't have to face every other civ in a big pile-on on t126.

I will finally finish off Feudalism next turn and will pop a wave of builders shortly thereafter. You can also see that I caved and bought the niter at the capital. TAD has also been spending their gold on...something...rather than saving for a mass-upgrade with which to murder us, which is a good sign. From here on out, I'll start saving myself for exactly such a mass-upgrade. TAD's beaker rate, on the other hand, is a much less good sign...

[ljubljana]

Turn 105 - Phoenicia

Luckily, not much going on this turn, because if there was I'm so sleepy that I'd definitely make some kind of empire-crumbling mistake or another...



Feudalism finally arrives to turn the developmental tide. Linear B and Demotic will get Serfdom builders next turn, and Hieratic a few turns after that. Linear A has one at 1t to completion, too, but I decide to finish the trader first since it's worth 6 yield/turn and the builder might not be. Abugida will also get a free 5-charge builder upon founding, which will chop a monument, add a few improvements, and then go help out Oracle Bones. This tile picker really is taking its sweet time...Linear B apparently needs 17 (!) more turns to get the PFH, which it inexplicably passed up last cycle in favor of the blank plains forest... Of the tiles we currently have access to, I count 1 (Runic) + 4 (Linear B) + 2 (Linear A) + 2 (Cuneiform) + 3 (Demotic) + 1 (Hieratic) = 13 that can currently be improved, with a few more to come via the picker in the next few turns. That's still enough to make me feel relatively safe in my choice of four builders, which will give me one extra to send around improving more tiles as the picker acquires them.

I actually went and counted the niter with Linear A's tiles here, for the following reason: it will be a million years until we get the plains marked out for Linear B's IZ, but I might want to do that IZ as its size 4 district. Linear A, meanwhile, will take a million years to hit size 7. Thus, I think I want to switch which city has which IZ, which requires Linear A to take the niter tile on a semi-permanent basis so that it will be able to claim its IZ tile even after it gets blocked off by districts at Cuneiform and Linear B. Clear as mud?



Unlike with TAD, who I'm scared of, I don't think I should bother sending China a TR to counteract this one. It won't even come online for 50t, by which point we might be ready to DoW to break it anyways. I can get 10g from a TR to China's capital, but I think getting 2f/4h at Geneva is more valuable right now for snowball reasons to finally finish its builder. China has almost no military anyways, so I'm not sure I should be all that worried about the getting +3 CS against me even if that does come to pass.

[ljubljana]

Before I forget, I'm thinking about moving Pingala over to Demotic in a few turns...Linear A already has all the useful tiles it is ever likely to acquire, whereas almost all of Demo's second-ring spots are badly needed either for production or district placement. Demo is also the closest thing I have to a non-Cuneiform city with some actual growth potential, especially once it gets is trader and if the line of farms from it to Hieratic ever materializes.

[Woden]

Turn 104-Vikings
Feudalism is in and my 3rd settler is out at Odin. Time for a policy swap. I swap out Colonization for Serfdom and replace Agoge with the new melee production card (I forget the name). Odin was going to work on the campus but decided to kick out an archery beforehand to work towards the boost of Mercenaries. Probably will have to build a swordsman or spear too. I currently have 5 units (3 archers, 1 slinger, 1 warrior) and an archer will complete next turn. One thing I don't remember is if rams count towards the boost. May have to run a test. Here is my core...
   

My 2 southern cities will be founded next turn. That should help my development a bit. My 3rd settler is going for the dyes city next to Odin and will be settled in 4 turns. My goals for the coming turns now that we are at peace with everybody is to get some harbors and lighthouses up, build some campuses, then focus on walls (ancient and medieval) for whatever war comes our way.

[ljubljana]

Turn 106 - Phoenicia

The closest thing we have to news this turn - we got Leif Erickson. What? Well, I guess TAD passed on him, and one look at the GP screen makes it pretty obvious why:



I sure wish there was anything I could do to keep TAD from getting that permanent +3 to naval CS . Oh well, I guess...hopefully TAD will need his GA functions for long enough that the retirement ability won't impact any upcoming war with us. Even more hopefully (because I sure love hoping things), maybe the war chest I'm working on, combined with the fact that I'm the only other power with GA access at all, will make CMF look like a juicier target than we do...



Zoomed-out overview this time. Two builders are out, and I'll have the niter mined next turn. Abugida is set to be founded as well to start working on acquiring the second niter. I sent the trader from Linear A over to Geneva, but, now that I'm thinking about it, that might be the wrong call - Geneva's hamstrung by lack of builder labor, sure, but it's also housing-capped, and really it's Linear B that needs it the most so it can finally grow up to size now that it's finally free of housing purgatory. Well, idk, both cities do need it pretty badly...maybe I'll just give this one to Geneva and then get another for Linear B with the Linear A lighthouse. I also moved Pingala over to Demotic to help with border pops, as advertised - that city also badly needs a TR, since it actually has the housing needed to grow a bit and now is the Pingala city on top of that. Of course, so does Runic with its sluggish growth and so do Mitla and Writing on the Wall with their awful production...which makes, uh, all my cities in range of one . Well, we'll get there eventually, I guess.

I'm thinking about sending a DoF to CMF - what are your thoughts? The main argument for getting one is that it won't expire until 10-15 turns (depending on when we send the offer) after the other two DoFs, so at least one civ won't be tempted to join the pile-on when the others inevitably turn on us...

EDIT: Note for future me - when I swap Linear A onto the niter next turn, I should give the horse to Linear B, which desperately needs a growth tile that doesn't require sacrificing the lighthouse build time. Linear A's horribly housing-capped anyways, so it's not like it desperately needs the horse right now anyways. After these two cities get their lighthouses, this is probably where I'll try to kick out a few quads for upgrading when the niter eventually comes trickling in... Also, I need to remember to put another turn into Machinery to get it to the boost level. That does waste a little of the boost, but I think it's worth it in this case given how close we're cutting it in terms of our time to Navigation vis-a-vis the DoF expirations.

Oh, I wonder if the next build in Demotic should be a watermill instead of the CH? I never build those, but it's worth 4 yield in the Pingala city and will pay for itself in just 20 turns...well, except, no, Demotic will be housing-capped at size 5 anyways, so there's not much need for it yet. CH - market (for a fighting chance at the Guilds eureka) - campus/aqueduct is probably better, if painfully slow as always.

[Woden]

I'm thinking about sending a DoF to CMF - what are your thoughts? The main argument for getting one is that it won't expire until 10-15 turns (depending on when we send the offer) after the other two DoFs, so at least one civ won't be tempted to join the pile-on when the others inevitably turn on us...

I would wait a few turn to stagger the DoFs a bit. No need to get caught in a heated battle with TAD just to have CMF jump in 10 turns after the war has started and you are focused elsewhere. Maybe wait 4 or 5 turns. When did the DoF start with TAD?

[ljubljana]

I was notified of the acceptance on my t96 - since I'm first in the turn order, that means they must have accepted on their t95. So is t125 the first turn they can attack us, or t126? And am I remembering right that I'll get first strike due to being first in the turn order?