[SPOILERS] Chevalier Mal Fet and Marcopolothefraud lead a Soviet Down Under

[marcopolothefraud]

Marco, I think defending on the far side of the chokes is the right call. We want as many flanking and support bonuses as we can get to buff our strength, and we want to deny those to sub. It's vital that we keep our galleys as much on the "two shot to kill" threshold as possible. We'll still lose some to one-shots, probably, but every time sub fails that's another attack he wastes, and frigates tick one turn closer. Frigates on the field in 7 turns, possibly 6 depending on my campus and pop growths, and freely mobile Frigates about 6 turns after that.

To my knowledge, flanking bonuses don't apply when units are defending from ranged attacks. My galleys will be at 34 melee strength no matter what on defense. On offense, I could probably stack some flanking bonuses and get to 38 melee strength - but it would be a very bad idea to try to counterattack Suboptimal with my Galleys.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Oh. Well, nuts. Then we're in a pickle, as he's going to be one-shotting our guys about 60% of the time.

Can you shift your fleet mostly north, and I'll come in with mine trapped on the far side of the choke and fill in the south?

[marcopolothefraud]

Suboptimal has killed 3 of my galleys. I now only have 4 galleys in the Rodeo area, though College Dropout, Rodeo, and Illmatic can all create a Galley next turn.

Here's the situation in my new city, Marshall Mathers LP:


Should I just go for that juicy +4 holy site instead of waiting for border growth?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Nah, be patient. We just need about 250 gold - less, with land surveyors if we can manage the policy swaps - to get a much, much juicier +9 instead. Remember, with doubling that's fully +10 extra production per turn, more than a typical IZ with workshop and factory. With Australia's doubling, too, you'd be giving up +20 hammers in the event of war for a slightly earlier Holy Site (and give up one of your best tiles to do it - the useless deserts are much better; third-ring HS and second-ring campus will both be really, really good and can be achieved by size 7, which is totally possible with the 3 3 food tiles).

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Archduke is absent for the weekend, so no turn in the last two days. Instead, let's take a breather to plot how ot end this war. I think, given 14 turns to research Cartography, I can more or less bring this to a decisive end within 20 turns or so. First, here's the theater of war:




In the north are Indonesia and China. South of them stretches a band of small, as-yet-unsettled islands. In the center is the massive island of Sakhilin, under Indonesian occupation, and the nearby islands of Shikishima and Novaya Zemlya. From the center there are two narrow coastal passages, one leading due south to Russia ("Point Luck") and the other leading southeast to Australia ("Point Matilda"). The deep Pacific Ocean separates most of Russia from the Matilda passage save for a narrow route crawling along the Australian coast, or by swinging north via Luck and then coming back south. 

In an emergency situation, which might be developing, I will need to commit my first five Frigates to blunting the attack on Rodeo, or, should Rodeo fall, on attacking strongly to defend TCD and Ilmatic. That said, though, these first 5 frigates, and the galleys I build in the meantime, will be all I'm committing. This is the little solution. IF Marco can hold out, though, I'd prefer to take the 8 extra turns to research Cartography and launch an ambush:




I can stage in the deep Pacific ocean, out of scouting range of Indonesia, out of jong range, and have a guaranteed first strike with as many Frigates as I can muster in those 8 intervening turns - my initial 5 plus another 4 or so, probably. 9 frigates against what I think are 7 jongs stacked up, plus all my galleys swarming in. I'll miss the ability to build those, no mistake. I'd prefer them to caravels, honestly - way more cost effective. 

Anyway, that's the big solution. 

Once the threat to Rodeo is dealt with, however, and sub retreats to Shikishima, presumably, my next wave of 6 frigates and perhaps 2-3 melee ships - surviving galleys if possible - will stage in the Kara Sea until I have all my forces assembled. Then we implement the grand solution:




We bypass Sakhalin entirely and strike directly for the heart of Indonesia. 

It's a six-turn sail from my borders, passing 4 unsettled islands on the way. On the 6th turn we can open fire on the Indonesian capital from 4 separate tiles. Assuming sub has upgraded one of his HCs to a knight by then, we'll be striking with 55 power vs approximately the same defense. That means our 4 attacks could conceivably do 100 hp worth of damage and strip off the walls on the opening blow. A strike the next turn would have the city zeroed, and it could fall as early as D+1 or D+2. 

We have a good chance to get there unobserved, with the chance of detecting very small until turn 3, 4, and 5, rising depending on traffic. Most likely sub will have at most 3 turns to react. If he pulls back his main fleet to defend - as he must - we pursue with our own and try to crush him between us with superior mobility. If he does not detect it, then we have very good odds - probably 70+% - to seize the Indonesian capital.

From there, my plans are more vague. The main objectives in order of priority are to 

a)Sink the Indonesian fleet
b)Seize the Indonesian island possessions
c)Do as much damage to Indonesia and China as practical.

With the fleet sunk, we can work on the island cities at our leisure. Australia should be able to take UAS and the former city-state in the northeast, I can liberate my own two cities, and in between a small army with frigate support should be able to dig sub out. He won't be building new ships, once Al, Shikishima, and the former CS are taken. 

Meanwhile, in pursuit of option C, I'll be using the Grand Master's Chapel to faith-buy a bunch of raiders on the Indonesian mainland. Their objective will be to spread out, pillage, and loot what they can, wrecking the Indonesian and Chinese economies unless they have massive garrisons (in which case they've ruined themselves anyway by sinking a bunch of production into land units of only limited production) and putting a lot of gold, science, and faith into our own coffers. Obviously Al can't be held long-term, but keeping a few ships nearby will allow me to batter it continuously and I'm happy to leave it as a free city, too. There's no need to conquer the mainland, neutering them should be enough. 

So, that's my grand plan to win the war. I have dubbed them, in order:

Operation Little Saturn - emergency plan to save Australia
Operation Big Saturn - mousetrap aimed at destroying the Indonesian fleet
Operation Neptune - decisive sea attack on Indonesia's capital.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

The only city that can build ships that won't be doing so will be Oslyabya, on the far eastern side of the empire. The need for ships there is a bit more in the future, so I want to get the basic harbor infrastructure in place FIRST.

Otherwise, every city that CAN build ships will be - that's Borodino (~30 hammers/turn, 9 turns per frigate), Knyaz Suvurov (~25 hammers/turn, 11 turn frigates), Navarin (28, 10 turns), Mikasa (20, 16 turns), and, eventually, Petropavlosk. So, assembling the strike force after my initial 5 will take about 10 turns after I finish Cartography, hoping I can get some pop growth to speed up some ships. 6 might be a reach and I go with only 4 instead, but Borodino, KS, and Navarin will all be able to get nearly 2 ships out to Mikasa's one. So we could hit Call Me All around turn 135 on this timeline.

That's...3 more jongs, I think. 10 jongs total, and I will have produced only 11 frigates, so it'll be a tough go, actually. But I'll keep spitting out frigates until peace is signed. So on turn 145 I'll have four more frigates but sub will only have 1 more jong, and so on, and so forth. Press Gangs will help me more than him since it doesn't affect faith purchases, just my own faithful production.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Turn 108

My two heavy chariots finish and bring mercenaries just to the planned point:




Excellent. We will swap into Mercenaries in 5 turns and complete it the same turn we can upgrade our quads. At 10 niter per upgrade, I will just barely have the gold and niter to upgrade 5. I MUST ensure I have no quads in queue, though, otherwise the idiot game will allocate niter to them first.  This is going to be tight, and I wish I had more time to accumulate gold and ships - but suboptimal regrettably is not leaving me that option. 

Matilda is looking dicey for 6 more turns:




The constricted terrain is turning in sub's favor. He can push in and mass attacks, but I can't bring in my mass of galleys because that jong blocks the path. Should I send my reserve force of 6 galleys at his rear? They'd get there just before the frigates...but I worry they'd just be sunk uselessly. I dunno, guys. I feel like we're on a knife's edge with Rodeo here. We can certainly hold TCD - the jongs won't be able to push past the choke south of Rodeo just as I can't push north - but I'm worried about sub leaving a holding force and sailing for Ilmatic.

At least he still took the time to sink my useless redlined galley up top, an entire jong attack absorbed. 

Let's see...Phoenicia wants to trade mercury for my extra silver, I do so. My sprawling empire and his both need luxuries, me even more so than him. 

I also finish my campus at Sevastopol and start a library right away, due in 5 turns. I also start Sissoi Veliki's Campus, also due in 5:




My science went up 4 this turn, and it'll go up 11 more in 5 turns from the twin finishes. That would put me at 87 science, still only ~80% of Archduke's massive rate BUT good enough for second in the game. We'd be ahead of monster Japan campuses AND Phoenician free inquiry cothons. And we're doing this while those two are at peace and I have 4 cities more or less on permanent war production status, most of that production then being immediately sent to the bottom, of course. Finally, once the era ends, free inquiry vanishes, and England, Phoenicia, and, to a lesser extent, Japan, will all see their science tumble. Mine is more 'real.' 

So as long as we can survive the jongs we're in very good shape. Marco's science will rapidly outpace mine if he is ever allowed by suboptimal to build his campuses. So my job has to be to chase Indonesia off. 

I place a second district this turn, my fourth harbor at Oslyabya:




Plan here is to finish the granary, get out a quad to clear the barb camp near Donskoi, and then finish the monument before tackling the harbor (a 10-turn build, reported). The granary will let me grow towards 7 and a second useful district, the sooner the better, the monument is needed because I think culture is more important than gold at the moment. 

Although my culture is ALSO second in the game, only ~66% of China's Sacred Places/Choral Music combo. That's without England's Pen, Brush, and Voice, though Archduke will probably pass me if he keeps throwing up RNDs everywhere (he finished another this turn). 
I need a policy swap right after Mercenaries so I can get out of Professional Army and Retainers. Best option is Feudalism, which I inspire:




Civil Service I'm not confident of finishing with the inspiration in the right timeframe, although that will certainly be my next goal. 

In the east:




Sevastopol's interface lies, the library is due in 5 - Oslyabya took back its 5-hammer lumber mill since it has the pop to work it now. Sevastopol has a builder on the way to supply it with a mine instead. 

Fuji's completion time will of course drop because I WILL PLACE LUMBER MILLS, DUH. That's going to speed things up. I connected the amenity first, but I don't think anyone's happy about it. 

The west:




The west is mostly military builds - quads for upgrading and galleys for holding. Petropavlosk starts a water mill, because honestly the +1 food is needful here and the only other thing to build was walls or a shrine. It might go for a feudalism builder instead...hm. That might be worthwhile, there are 5 charges' worth of stuff to do over here. Magnus establishes in Mikasa next turn and we will purchase a settler, then in 3 turns we will purchase a second, giving me 3 for that far island, which should fill it up nicely. No gold can be spent improving their tiles yet, saving it for Frigate upgrades, but at least the cities can start getting basic infrastructure in place and conversions underway while I try to scrape up the resources to place their lavras. 

Then Magnus will transfer to Donskoi and we'll repeat the process for the OTHER far island.

[marcopolothefraud]

Suboptimal kills 4 of my galleys and leaves Rodeo wide open. There are still 2 galleys in the city, and I move both of them out, but it's safe to say that the city is gone next turn.



Illmatic can't make a Galley every turn, or it will waste A LOT of production. I will lose all of my overflow. Yet I'm pretty sure Suboptimal will go for it next.



An Aquemini forest chop will only yield 72 production, or 108 with Magnus. There's still quite some time before I can chop and complete that Holy Site.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Aw nuts.

Okay, damage control. The city should survive this turn, since he doesn't have a unit in range to take it. So it falls 109.

That means we need to buy 5 turns for frigates. You need to keep him out of Ilmatic until turn 115, then I can start hitting his rear with my entire reserve navy. Wasted production or no, I think it's best to have as many ships in the water as you can. You also have the eastern ships which can be transferred west - it'll take a while but you'll want them eventually, I expect.

We also will need to be aware of some of those HCs getting loose on the island. Pillaging will be annoying until we can clean them up. Try and keep your army out of range of jongs, and let's see about getting some knight counters built at the Blueprint, perhaps.

[marcopolothefraud]

Illmatic makes 41 hammers per turn, or 82 hammers with the +100% production policy to ships. So I would be wasting 22 production every turn by making Galleys.