[SPOILERS] Chevalier Mal Fet and Marcopolothefraud lead a Soviet Down Under

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Turn 127

I must not cackle like a mad scientist in my turn reports...

I must not cackle like a mad scientist in my turn reports...

I must not...




Turn starts me off here. We've got a unit lost, two diplomatic notifications, a faith purchased apostle available (lol), an extra trade route, and a promotion. 

Let's deal with the lost unit first. There's really only one candidate, barring nasty surprises, and sure enough sub attacked out to break the siege, trading his sword for a bit of extra city-healing. A spare frigate easily polishes off the sword:




More distressing is the lost gold from the mine pillage now.  Marco has so many cheap builders the Blueprint can kick out, it's not like he'd even notice it. 200 gold, down the drain...I console myself by pillaging the lumberyard on the other side. Three frigate bombardments drop the walls to 57 and the garrison to 128 hp:




Once the walls go next turn, the garrison will also fall quickly. We could capture it ourselves next turn, but we want Australia to at least try for the x2 production bonus, so we'll delay a turn. I don't see anything Sub could do about it at this point, with no units and no faith or cash to rush anything here. 

On to the production notifications. Mikasa can build a caravel in 7...




...while Navarin can build a frigate in 5. Over in Svalbard, Nakhimov finds itself with a spare build and rather than build a shrine or my aqueduct, in the same time I could get another caravel out:




That seems obviously worthwhile, so I order up another Caravel. I'm working 0 production tiles at this city, by the way - if I swapped off growth we'd drop this build time to around 5. Do I want to delay the campus to build more ships here? 

...wait, obviously, yes, yes I do. Should have done that during the turn. Dummy. 

Defogging Woden's core, I find a beautiful 5 adjacency campus next to his plaza:




Neato. That's like 20% of poor Norway's science output right there. 

One other thing to note on global research rates - Sub and Roland have both increased their science by 50% in the last 20 turns and are approaching respectability, even staggering into the Renaissance one and all last turn. This is, of course, excellent news for us. Why? Because every hammer invested in a campus isn't one invested in ships. If they're building this many campuses and universities because they have to, due to those cities not being coastal, well, thank God they didn't settle more coastal cities, then. 

Actually, that's not fair, I've no idea how many of China's cities are on the coast, 3 of the 4 Chinese cities I know the locations of are coastal.

Anyway, this big science isn't much of a threat - they won't get to any dangerous techs before I'm burning down their shipyards, and who gives a damn if you have battleship tech if you've no place to build them? 

Let's get on with the war:




Scouts report that the Indonesian galley has vanished, sailing God-knows-where, so I order GalRon2, slightly more healthy than GalRon4, into the harbor. If all goes well, I can pillage the lighthouse and harbor using 2 adjacent galleys, grab that trade route, and then skedaddle. I should lose one galley to jong fire if he concentrates on the pillagers, but that's a decent trade for ~600 gold and the attendant economic damage to Indonesia. I close in to give sub a surfeit of targets:




Now, he might mock this 'attack' as obviously doomed, but you know and I know dear reader that this attack is not an invasion. This is a smash-and-grab job, we have no intentions of attacking those walls with galleys. We're trading some of our many, many hulls for upgrade gold and hurting the Indonesians. We'll see how many ships he can muster next turn in response - if I'm lucky, this will draw the jong at Shikishima north...




Because 1st Fleet is edging nearer Chinese waters. I know 3 frigates are out, maybe more - 20 Indonesian niter vanished without a trace, but Roland didn't spend enough gold for 2 upgrades, so I'm not sure what the story is. But 5 frigates COULD hurt me if they all come in for a scrap - but I'm accepting that since I would also sink all 5 in return, I think, without risking my modern ships overmuch. So we have a screen of galleys, which will scout, guarding our modern ships. Then it's the same story as at Good Time - smash, grab, loot, pillage, burn, and then get out of dodge before Indochina can muster a response. 

Together, I hope the two piracy operations draw their attention abck to their home shores and leave Shikishima vulnerable to my main assault, which will start in ~8ish turns. 

Here's a decent overview of where everyone is in relation to each other:




Okay, the last thing I do is, after ordering up a trade route to Woden for 20 gpt and 1 science, I have 2 more. One is starting next turn out of GAGA, but I could get a final one going if I had the lighthouse...




After some thought, I pull the trigger. The purchase, a steep 480 gold, will pay for itself in 24 turns - relatively quickly, only 3 weeks in the life of the game. But what about upgrade gold? Well, not only am I grabbing ~600 off of suboptimal next turn (360 of which will go to Oz for a pair of Caravel upgrades at Mercenaries, assuming his economy can sustain caravels!), but my gold income will be up to 180 gpt with these two routes next turn! 

Even if Australia were skint broke, that would put our GPT above the Raiders and the Central Powers, and our combined military scores are very near theirs. It gives Russia the highest GPT in the game, to go with its faith, production, science, and population, and now I'll be earning enough gold for a caravel upgrade every turn. Thus, getting this trade route online earlier and keeping Mikasa on Caravels all game long will be 1 extra caravel out of the city, but also spares us the time spent on thel ighthouse so Knaz Suvurov or Petropavlosk could ALSO build their lighthouses sooner, meaning more GPT, etc. 

So it's an out of character move for me but I think it'll pay off. 

Other news: We damage the barb spearman at Donskoi, at Nakhimov our warrior has a slinger and sword coming out of the tundra, so I withdraw. Might need to upgrade there, but will monitor the gold situation since I don't see a clear payoff here. Ljubljana rethinks his rejection of my alliance and offers a cultural one. After some thought, I take it - I COULD flip Oracle Bones if he hits a dark age, but williams and I proved how damn hard it is to flip a city against a determined player, Carthage has the special loyalty project on top of that, and in the meantime if he trades with me I get some extra culture - not as much as he does, but it keeps him from trading with anyone else, so by all means. Australia hits Civil Service next turn and should offer me a military alliance, so I'll be able to hit the Indochinese VERY hard next turn as I start my probe. 

Overview of the east/Fuji Bay:




No changes. Center/Russia Proper:




Everyone's on ships now. 

West/Svalbard:




And the three battle fronts - Australia, Good Time, and Indochina:

[marcopolothefraud]

the whole timeline for a profitable Aquemini comes out to ~40 turns after settlement. We'd need to make sure Japan or England or someone didn't come by to burn it down again in the meantime, which would send all that up in smoke...(literally)...

With all due respect, we're already in the Renaissance Era. I don't want to do anything that will have a rate of return of 40 turns - that's far too slow. Better to just invest that production in military units.







I pinned my re-settlements on the map, as well as a rough estimate of when I'll be able to found them (give or take a turn). Flower Boy is making a lighthouse.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Turn 128

I start the turn off with 2 - no, 3 - unpleasant surprises. First is that the city can one shot my galleys:




That...shouldn't have been possible. The second is that he can also one shot my heavy chariots, as the pillager at Ilmatic is dead. The final suprise is that Sub's trader apparently finished JUST this turn and is gone. :/ Well, that's a bummer. 

I eventually puzzle out what sub did as I update the spreadsheet - he finished a civic THIS turn. I figure he swapped into Bastions and the added city-strength is what hit my galley and killed it. Talk about rotten luck for me - if I'd waited one more turn he coudln't have done that, and he might have renewed the trader, too. Instead the trader escapes and his cities will all be much tougher nuts to crack. Ouch! 

Oh well, them's the breaks. Let's make some lemons. 

Marco offered the alliance, which is fantastic. I take it, and - it turns out Roland and Sub don't have a military alliance yet! Pretty egregious oversight on their part, since Roland had to have inspired it for sub AGES ago and his culture is much better than Australia's, but I'll take advantage. 




A bit of unit shuffling and the lighthouse is pillaged and one galley is dead, so the net galley cost is coming out the same for me - one fewer relative to suboptimal in exchange for the looted gold. I'll lose one more galley on the counterfire next turn, but that shouuuuld be all, I think. Everyone else can withdraw safely. Oh, and if I stay to loot the harbor, too, that'll be a third galley. 90 production burned in return for 450 gold, not a bad investment. That's 3 more caravels, nearly, so honestly a good exchange. 

My two injured galleys, unable to really contribute except as targets, finish scouting northern Japan:




Note the natural wonder in the far north - Russia would LOVE to colonize that island. 

Over at Ilmatic, we finish shredding the walls and the red carpet is laid out for Australia:




Sub will get the interturn, but I see no way for him to save the city. If the Man at Arms somehow fails I have a galley standing by to liberate on my turn, so as of turn 129 Ilmatic is back in Australian hands. Note also that Marco ran down the heavy chariot in the north, trying to flee, with his quad. So, in terms of land units, I have lost 2 heavy chariots in exchange for a sword, knight, and heavy chariot of Indonesia's own. And the hammer ratio is very much in our favor vis a vis the jongs - 6 jongs would equate to 60 galleys sunk and sub got about half that. 

Uh, shame about the cities, but even that's not too bad - Marco's settlers are now 240 cogs w/colonization, so in terms of raw hammers it's cheaper for Marco to replace the lost cities than it will be for Sub to replace his jongs. Madness! Obviously he'd take the jong for city trade any day, since we ALSO lose all the potential hammers of those cities in the meantime, as well as all they already invested in buildings and districts (not a lot, honestly, since they were all so young!), but it's not as bad as it first looks. 

Moving on around the empire, we clear the barb at Donskoi...




I am getting very near a Golden Age. I have about 11 turns left to engineer ~10 points. The Emergency ending will be some, the Great Lighthouse will be more, and I might build the IZ at Borodino to net the last couple. Should be guaranteed a third, don't know if I"ll take Monumentality again or if there's something better. 

We activate the two trade routes up our sleeves and inspire medieval faires:




That lets us swap in Merchant Confederation, and with the trade routes active Russian GPT is now 186 per turn, with 7 frigates and 3 caravels active. Averaged with Australia and we're still at each team member making 95 per turn, and Australia has a lot of growth potential. :D 

The most exciting news comes when First Fleet's scouts spot a Chinese frigate at anchor.




Cautious scouting with other units reveals only a distant galley to the far north, and I know he hasn't bought any new frigates other than those 2, so this accounts for 33% of China's modern ships at the moment. Roland, my friend, you have to learn to operate your ships in groups. 

Note how badly the frigate will get slammed thanks to the alliance:




It's quickly sent to the bottom by my two frigates. I carefully keep everyone except the galleys - which he'll spot anyway - away from China's borders and visibility. The battle report will tell him that a frigate did the deed, but he has no idea how many ships are out here. If he comes out for a scrap with his other two frigates, or his less modern ships, then I think I'm actually ready to accept battle like this, since I have a huge margin of superiority. Sub has the jong in the east, but it has very few avenues to rendezvous, and if it comes by itself, it runs right into the Caravel and GalRon 3, and it dies. 

The result is the frigates surrounded by a protective screen of GalRon 1, while the caravel and GalRon 3 cover the rear and will be in position to support next turn:




I have 5 more ships finishing in the next 5 turns, which will all speed north, as well as Magellan, due to arrive in 4 turns. If I can kill the Indonesian jong, then as soon as my frigate count is up to 4 I will go for Shikishima - 4 frigates I THINK can strip the walls in one turn and prevent those nasty Indonesian counterfires. 

Overview of Mikasa Bay:




Donskoi produces a Caravel every 6 turns. The DoF with England ends on 146, or 18 turns, so we will have a total of 5 Caravels in position in this bay, not counting the other two cities, so that's a minimum count. 

Central Russia:




Navarin places, but does not start, a 5-turn Industrial Zone. It's 130 production with 4 adjacency, or 33 turns RoI. We will start it once I've got a good amount of ships finished and the offensive in Indonesia is truly underway. I've also filled out virtually all tiles that need to be improved, future builders out of Oryol won't really need Serfdom. 

Svalbard:




Nahkimov will actually finish that caravel in 5 turns, not 6. Notice that I recruited Magnus with the Faires title - he will be stationed on the central island as cities fall to help delay flips long enough for me to reach the next city. 

Various other points of interest. Norway finished 2 encampments next turn and is apparently defending here:




Loki is a very good trade route destination - +16 gold/1 production for GAGA and AS. I also have spotted Norwegian longships at sea, so he might be intending pillage. 

Australia:




We can begin the attack at African Skies in 2 turns, I believe. I buy a knight at Borodino to join in - with my heavy chariots getting annihilated, I'm down to just the one half-health chariot for a land assault, and I need at least the knight as insurance. 

Good Time:




Galrons 2 and 4 are down to 11 ships, and will be at 10 for certain, possibly as low as 8 or 9 after hte operation concludes. I might have to fold them together into one overstrength unit. 

Indochina:




The jong at Shikishima can only come either due west - and run right into the fleet and a quick death - or go northwest for the strait between Numenor and that unnamed island (let me know any good ideas), either of which would result in death, or all the way around Ryan Kent and sub's capital itself, opening the way to Shikishima.

[marcopolothefraud]

Grr, I'm slightly annoyed by Ljubljana holding the save for a few hours while he discusses something (presumably combat strategy) with Woden in his thread. Usually the save comes to me in the early morning, but if it doesn't come in the morning, then I'll have to wait until 4pm or 5pm to play it today.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Agreed. He's done this consistently since the war broke out, I've noticed - I get that he wants to really take his time, but c'mon. The knock-on effects are okay on roland, he lives in Scotland, but by the time you can take your turn after you miss the morning window, Kaiser and Archduke are headed to bed. And if either of them misses the turn - especially on the weekend - the turn will stall for nearly a day.

One thing I noticed in ljubljana's PBEM19 thread is that he's flighty and prone to overthinking (and overreacting). And now he's managing the most complex naval battle yet in the PBEM, so he's taking ages. He's already not done what I would have - he knew the DoF was expiring, he knew Archduke was coming after him, and he knew he'd have first strike. When I got into that exact situation I pushed up on Archduke's ships as close as I could, and on the very first turn I could declare war - even though I was outnumbered - I did so and went after his fleet. The numbers disadvantage quickly equalized and Archduke conceded on that very turn.

ljubljana not only had that, he even had Caravels for a few turns before England did - rather than using that edge to go for a devastating first strike on the English fleet in its ports, Pearl Harbor (or, as a Russian, should I say Port Arthur?)-style, ljubljana...conquered that same city-state he'd randomly gifted back to the Archduke a few turns before, and has sat on his hands since. There's been some skirmishing, it looks like Archduke's great admiral has sunk a few biremes, but after 3 turns of war there's been no massive brawl. It's not at all my style, I'd rather have it out as soon as I can. NOw, maybe ljubljana is waiting for his Cothons to build him more ships to equalize that power disparity (which is only ~200 points, like 4 frigates, and that doesn't account for Norway's massive advantage over Japan), but even so I think it would have been all the better to get into a bloody fight while the English sat vulnerable waiting for caravel upgrades, knowing you could replace losses more easily.

oh, well. Hopefully things will resolve themselves in the next 5 turns and ljubljana will speed things up. Archduke is an aggressive tactician (which is why he wins, contrast him with more timid players like Kaiser's invasion of Canada in PBEM18 or sub's half-hearted jong invasion, which, damaging as it was, probably would have killed one of us if he'd been serious about it) and won't put up with the shadowplay for long - he'll either go for ljub's fleet as soon as he's got a position he likes or go right for Phoenicia's capital to -force- ljub to fight.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I'm...not going to get a turn today, am I?

[marcopolothefraud]

I accidentally clicked the Next Turn button before I could get any screenshots.

Anyway, I retake Illmatic this turn, which has a population of...3. And it's due to grow in 66 turns, because I'm working high production tiles to get the city back on its feet. I slot in Magnus; 5 turns later, I'm going to harvest some rice for a large food bonus.

CMF unexpectedly sends me a gift of 360 gold. Uhh...thanks? I'm not sure what to do with it until I get to cash-buy Monuments in my founded cities. But that's at least 8 turns away.

Confucius, the Indonesian Great Prophet, is sneakily hiding in Lake Mackay! I can't do anything about it until the Low-End Theory is re-founded, which will allow my ships to enter Lake Mackay. But that makes me mad.

Kaiser has renamed "Miln" to "Fort Miln". Do you think it means anything?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

When you hit Mercenaries, the 360 gold is exactly enough to upgrade 2 caravels - they can come along with the Russian fleet and liberate Brussels in the north, earning you x2 production and get you back on your feet faster. Sorry, I, uh, apparently never wrote that down.

As for Kaiser, I think the cities became Forts once the coreling invasion properly began...it might be because they're at war.

[marcopolothefraud]

I have a stray quadrireme north of Marshall Mathers LP right now, and I think it costs 165 gold to upgrade. Could I have another 165 gold?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Yep, I'll send it along on my turn.

Also, I just realized - I can upgrade in allied territory! Which includes Woden's territory just south of China! I had been planning on a single-squadron upgrade around Shikishima once I recaptured the city and gold allowed, but I might speed up that timetable. If nothing else, it's a backstop in case it takes a long time to take Shikishima back.