[PB58 Spoilers] Sea Monsters and Other Lurking Types

[Lazteuq]

What do we think, fellow lurkers?

Superdeath on May 20th:

While i think that us 3 can EVENTUALLY wear Tarkeel down.. Its going to be the longest like 6months of my civ career. Please end this. Its been a very well played game by him.

Jowy on May 13:

I'll accept concession to Tarkeel if SD and Cairo want the game to end.

today:

I'm happy about taking down two cities at least, but now I'm out of tricks and waiting for the game to end.

Cairo today:

If Jowy and SD have conceded in their own threads, then consider this a concession. If they haven't, then please don't go in their threads asking about conceding. I will continue to play to the best of my ability as long as the game continues regardless.

I feel kinda bad for bringing up the topic of concession since Cairo is explicitly willing to play on and Jowy is at least still reporting and attacking.
Jowy and Cairo's concessions are dependent on eachother. I think I would interpret Jowy's last post as concession, but it's not completely clear.

[Old Harry]

What if Cairo says he'll concede if you do?

I guess we will keep playing.

Sorry Superdeath, play on!

[naufragar]

With Jowy's recent concession, is it safe to call the game?

[Mjmd]

I would concur.

[Tarkeel]

I'm wondering if Tarkeel is thinking about Environmentalism with all those windmills already in place. Don't want to ask him directly, because I don't want to influence him.

We did consider trying out Police State + Environmentalism over Representation + Mercantilism, but we'd need foreign trade for that to be worth it I think. Would have been a closer call if we didn't have StatueOfLiberty to amplify Representation, and this indirectly Mercantilism. If it also had commerce on coast (as discussed in the CtH thread), I think that would have tipped it over.

[Tarkeel]

(...)the accumulated numbers. Once again these are the accumulated gold numbers with total commerce in parenthesis.

1. Jowy (ORG) = 69563 (56308)
   
2. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 69553 (59622)
   
3. Superdeath = 65374 (52360)
   
4. AT (FIN) = 59308 (54339)
   
5. Tarkeel (ORG) = 55968 (52778)
   
6. Ruff = 15853 (13994)
   

Surprisingly Tarkeel is in the worst position here, but I would guess that this will change in the future as he stabilizes his economy, builds more modifiers buildings etc. Here we can also see that the two FIN leaders earned a lot more raw commerce compared to the other players.

Does your code still only track commerce from tiles and trade routes? Asking because a lot of our economy was based on specialists and buildings (monk wonders).

[Charriu]

The total commerce numbers are the same as in previous version so only commerce from tiles and trade. The gold numbers as shown above includes specialists and buildings. Unfortunately I made a mistake which caused the science numbers to track the same numbers as the gold with only the special +1 science for every turn added.

You can see that the numbers include specialist and other stuff because they are generally higher compared to the total commerce numbers in parenthesis. Don't forget that you were on the tail end of a major and important conflict at that point in time.

[Charriu]

And another game in the books T245. I'm especially happy that this game went deeper into the tech tree then previous games. So let's have another look at their numbers. As always all the data can be found here: PB58 Tracking

Before we start some notable observations from the last 50 turns:

• AT was eliminated from the game
  
• Tarkeel turned his conquest of AT into a remarkable economic position
  
• Jowy and Superdeath tried to keep up to Tarkeel and joined into a final confrontation with the game leader and winner
  

General state of the game

First of all the city count:

1. Tarkeel = 42
   
2. Jowy = 32
   
3. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo = 32
   
4. Superdeath = 26
   
5. AT = 0
   
6. Ruff = 0
   

Tarkeel managed to add some more cities to his empire. Mr. Cairo and Jowy did so too but to a lesser degree. Superdeath mostly stagnated in the city count department.

Population

1. Tarkeel = 452
   
2. Jowy = 410
   
3. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo = 304
   
4. Superdeath = 235
   
5. AT = 52
   
6. Ruff = 0
   

Everybody grew their population in the last 50 turns. Most interestingly even though Jowy has 10 cities less then Tarkeel he managed to stay close to Tarkeel's pop numbers.

As you know I'm also tracking Gold. As described in my last report due to a bug the Science output is useless information and I will ignore it.

I opted to post the gold current turn numbers here with the total commerce numbers in parenthesis for comparison. But keep in mind as Serdoa already mentioned with my last report, this is not a totally accurate display of the players economy. Players spend some turns on espionage and these numbers only show what the player earn in the category if they run it 100%, which is not the reality. Still these numbers show what the players economy is capable to do.

1. Tarkeel (ORG) = 3115 (1755)
   
2. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 2394 (1241)
   
3. Jowy (ORG) = 1968 (1189)
   
4. Superdeath = 1207 (835)
   
5. AT (FIN) = 0 (0)
   
6. Ruff = 0 (0)
   

Tarkeel already asked about these numbers and here we can clearly see the power of modifier buildings, specialists and monk economy. As we already know Tarkeel managed to turn his conquest into a remarkable economic lead.

Now this is only the income side of the economy and it is good practice to also look at the spending. So here the total Maintenance as of T245 of the players:

1. Tarkeel (ORG) = 816
   
2. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 678
   
3. Superdeath = 437
   
4. Jowy (ORG) = 435
   
5. AT (FIN) = 0
   
6. Ruff = 0
   

Once again we see the power of ORG here, best observed in the numbers from Jowy and Superdeath. We know Jowy has 6 more cities and 100+ more population, still he pays almost the same maintenance as Superdeath. I also want to mention that all players are roughly equal in unit supply cost.

To get a better grasp of the actual economic potential we now take the delta of our total commerce and maintenance

1. Tarkeel (ORG) = 939
   
2. Jowy (ORG) = 754
   
3. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 563
   
4. Superdeath = 398
   
5. AT (FIN) = 0
   
6. Ruff = 0
   

This is essentially the amount of gold the players have to pay when the run 0% gold. It's good practice also to compare this to the delta of gold at 100% and maintenance.

1. Tarkeel (ORG) = 2299
   
2. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 1716
   
3. Jowy (ORG) = 1533
   
4. Superdeath = 770
   
5. AT (FIN) = 258
   
6. Ruff = 0
   

I think I will track both values in the future. One thing is certainly true. Tarkeel's economy is doing the best as he's first in both categories, which was to be expected. We can also see that two evenly sized empires of FIN and ORG players aka Mr. Cairo and Jowy are doing equally good.

But these are only the current turn numbers. We should also look at the accumulated numbers. Once again these are the accumulated gold numbers with total commerce in parenthesis.

1. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 150623 (109244)
   
2. Jowy (ORG) = 140842 (100872)
   
3. Tarkeel (ORG) = 131139 (104160)
   
4. Superdeath = 111414 (85479)
   
5. AT (FIN) = 60361 (55122)
   
6. Ruff = 15853 (13994)
   

I think this will surprise a lot of people seeing Tarkeel in 3rd position here. But there are some explainations for this. First of all these are the numbers if you are running 100% gold all the time, which is unrealistic. We should also note that the two ORG leaders need less gold overall to advance in science compared to a FIN leader. Lastly we can see that at least from Total Commerce numbers Tarkeel would have been in 2nd place here.

But once again we need to set these numbers into perspective with the maintenance cost:

1. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 65033
   
2. Tarkeel (ORG) = 53460
   
3. Jowy (ORG) = 47528
   
4. Superdeath = 45194
   
5. AT (FIN) = 30824
   
6. Ruff = 10692
   

We see a similar pattern as with the current turn numbers. Once again we see that Superdeath is also very good in this department. I guess it's because Superdeath built courthouses rather early? Am I right in this Superdeath?

Once again we take the delta of Total Commerce and maintenance for a full picture:

1. Jowy (ORG) = 53344
   
2. Tarkeel (ORG) = 50700
   
3. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 44211
   
4. Superdeath = 40285
   
5. AT (FIN) = 24298
   
6. Ruff = 3302
   

But we should not forget how the numbers look if we build the delta between gold and maintenance.

1. Jowy (ORG) = 93314
   
2. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 85590
   
3. Tarkeel (ORG) = 77679
   
4. Superdeath = 66220
   
5. AT (FIN) = 29537
   
6. Ruff = 5161
   

We see a mix result in the TOP 3. My estimated guess ist that would the game have continued for the next 50 turns, Tarkeel's lead would have shown here too. I also think that if I had the correct science numbers, we would have seen Tarkeel on top.

Financial Bonus

As a disclaimer just as last time, here I collected all the extra commerce a player (would) have gained if he was working Financial tiles. For example if you worked a coast tile you normally gain 2 commerce and 3 commerce with FIN. In this case my tool notes down 1 extra commerce. You will also find that I am tracking the CtH implemenation of Financial as well as the normal BtS implemenation for comparison.

Looking at the current turn numbers first:

1. Tarkeel (ORG) = 345
   
2. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 256
   
3. Jowy (ORG) = 255
   
4. Superdeath = 172
   
5. AT (FIN) = 0
   
6. Ruff = 0
   

Here the cumulated numbers:

1. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 23955
   
2. Jowy (ORG) = 20821
   
3. Tarkeel (ORG) = 20341
   
4. Superdeath = 15339
   
5. AT (FIN) = 9383
   
6. Ruff = 2556
   

Mr. Cairo is on top which is to be expected for a FIN player.

Regular readers know that I also compare these numbers to the BtS implementation. Again the current turn numbers. I've also put the delta between CtH and BtS in parenthesis:

1. Tarkeel (ORG) = 453 (108)
   
2. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 274 (18)
   
3. Jowy (ORG) = 259 (4)
   
4. Superdeath = 178 (6)
   
5. AT (FIN) = 0 (0)
   
6. Ruff = 0 (0)
   

Everybody except one player has developed their cottage economy to their fullest. But pay attention to that one player, who is Tarkeel. A difference of 108 commerce between the implementation. Last time at T200 he only had a difference of 38ish. Where does this come from. Well I think the answer is Tarkeel's unique Serfdom/farms/windmill economy. Farms on a river under Serfdom produce 2 commerce, which would have produced an extra commerce under the BtS implementation. Add some windmills with 2 commerce to the mix and you get this difference.

Let's turn to the accumulated numbers now. Again these are the BtS numbers with the difference towards CtH in parenthesis and the effectivness of my nerf in percent.

1. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 27027 (3072) -11%
   
2. Tarkeel (ORG) = 24382 (4041) -17%
   
3. Jowy (ORG) = 22233 (1412) -6%
   
4. Superdeath = 16857 (1518) -9%
   
5. AT (FIN) = 10747 (1364) -13%
   
6. Ruff = 3026 (470) -15%
   

Between the three players, who were running a common cottage economy, we see that the overall reduction is around 6%-11% for the relevant players. I left Tarkeel with 17% out of this, because of his unique economy.

Now you might remember that I also tracked my new 2.0 implementation. This bonus is essentially the same, but you need to build a lighthouse to unlock it for the cities water tiles. Now of course because this isn't implemented here the players have less incentive to build a lighthouse for this bonus. But I think these numbers can still help to evaluate the extreme cases of this implementation. If it is in place, we do expect the players to go for lighthouses sooner. Let's look at the current turn numbers with the numbers of the current implementation in parenthesis.

1. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 254 (256)
   
2. Jowy (ORG) = 254 (255)
   
3. Tarkeel (ORG) = 344 (345)
   
4. Superdeath = 171 (172)
   
5. AT (FIN) = 0 (0)
   
6. Ruff = 0 (0)
   

We now can see that there is almost no difference between the different implementations, which is intended. The only difference we see are most likely lake tiles worked by a city without lighthouse access. To get a better grasp of the impact we have to look at the accumulated numbers. You will once again find the delta between BtS and the lighthouse nerf in parenthesis followed by the reduction in percentage compared to BtS:

1. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 22605 (4422) -16%
   
2. Jowy (ORG) = 20607 (1626) -7%
   
3. Tarkeel (ORG) = 19780 (4602) -18%
   
4. Superdeath = 14959 (1898) -11%
   
5. AT (FIN) = 8693 (2054) -19%
   
6. Ruff = 2045 (981) -32%
   

So if we only look at the three relevant players (cottage economy) we have a reduction between 7% - 16%. Keep in mind that all these numbers are virtuell as this implementation is not in place here. But we can at least assume that nobody would do worse then the numbers above if it would be in place.

Protective Bonus

Nobody took PRO in this game, but that shouldn't be a reason not to track it. Here are the current turn numbers:

1. Tarkeel (ORG) = 162
   
2. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 131
   
3. Superdeath = 101
   
4. Jowy (ORG) = 99
   
5. AT (FIN) = 0
   
6. Ruff = 0
   

Widespread adoption of Mercantilism and lower amount of trade partners helped improve the PRO numbers further. Keep in mind that Tarkeel has the Great Lighthouse, which obsoleted at some point during the last 50 turns.

Let's go to the accumulated numbers for a better view:

1. Tarkeel (ORG) = 12555
   
2. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 9635
   
3. Jowy (ORG) = 8153
   
4. Superdeath = 7171
   
5. AT (FIN) = 2939
   
6. Ruff = 414
   

Now I mentioned in the T100 report that I also tracked the new implementation of 100% trade yield here and we now see some significant difference between 75% and 100% trade yield. First the current numbers of 100% trade yield with the delta in parenthesis:

1. Tarkeel (ORG) = 216 (54)
   
2. Jowy (ORG) = 158 (59)
   
3. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 141 (10)
   
4. Superdeath = 130 (29)
   
5. AT (FIN) = 0 (0)
   
6. Ruff = 0
   

As you can see the extra 25% trade yield improves PRO's performance in the late game, which was one intended effect of increasing the trade yield value. For a better overview let's look at the accumulated numbers with the delta between 75% and 100% in parenthesis

1. Tarkeel (ORG) = 14136 (1581)
   
2. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 10503 (868)
   
3. Jowy (ORG) = 9896 (1743)
   
4. Superdeath = 8992 (1821)
   
5. AT (FIN) = 3188 (249)
   
6. Ruff = 414 (0)
   

Overall I'm quite pleased with the small buff to the late PRO game. I think the 100% was a step in the right direction.
Misc

I want to take a quick look at the accumulated civic maintenance here:

1. Serdoa/Mr. Cairo (FIN) = 23409
   
2. Superdeath = 15263
   
3. Jowy (ORG) = 11485
   
4. AT (FIN) = 9716
   
5. Tarkeel (ORG) = 9506
   
6. Ruff = 2420
   

Not only do we see that the ORG leaders pay significantly less in civic maintenance, we also see that Tarkeel overall payed less civic maintenance then a player, who was eliminated some 38 turns ago (AT). Of course Tarkeel payed a lot more in city maintenance compared to the other players.

Of course I'm tracking a lot more but there is not enough information there to justify an own paragraph. Therefore a little summary here:

• AGG is still not generating a lot of money compared to the other traits (highest is 28 per turn for Tarkeel). Now this is to be expected with this peaceful development
  
• Tarkeel used Serfdom for the last 50 turns
  
• Superdeath used Caste System for the last 50 turns and Jowy adopted it in T225 using till the end
  
• Mr. Cairo used slavery for the last 50 turns
  
• Surprisingly the barbarians are in Caste System since T159 and still used it until the end. Sadly it did not help them achieve a victory. 
  

Comparing traits

The main goal of all this tracking of course is to compare the economic traits related around commerce income or maintenance reduction. So let's do this:




Not that much can be said about the traits that we didn't already know from past PBs

1. The order seems to change in at least according to the current turn numbers. There it is FIN>PRO>ORG>>AGG
   
2. In the accumulated numbers the old order of FIN>ORG>PRO>>AGG still holds true.
   
3. Of note is that Tarkeel did better with PRO compared to ORG and for Superdeath PRO100 would have been better then ORG
   
4. AGG is doing poorly in a peaceful game like this.
   
5. Even with the lighthouse nerf FIN is doing better then ORG.
   

[Tarkeel]

One thing that's been nagging me; did you get the bonus beakers from representation when you've only counted gold?

[Charriu]

No because those would have been added to the science count, if it weren't for the bug. This is fixed in PB59 onward.