[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

T139-Vikings
After suboptimal not playing his turn last night even though he had his computer on for 2 hours after the turn was sent to him (I can see your steam profile), then needlessly not playing it for 3 hours after he played his PBEM21 turn this afternoon, he finally graced us with a turn. Maybe it is me but I try and play the turn as soon as I can, especially if I am getting my ass kicked. I would want the game over as soon as possible. I don't understand to lack of wanting to pass the turn. 

Anyways, I forgot to send the niter this turn. AS most of the time, I remembered right after I hit the submit button on the client. Will have to do it next turn. CMF has seemed to back off any blocking potential, moving his ships out of the way a bit.  Kaiser obviously doesn't understand his civilization. He had a caravel sitting on an ocean tile surrounded by shallow water. Dude, you get +5 CS when in shallow water. I killed the caravel...
   

It was sitting 2 tile east of the frigate. I also reach the shores of hos southern island and will attack the city next turn. I killed an archer he had on horse tile. Not much for pillaging this turn, only a single mine. My caravel up by TAD's capital survived and retreating to heal. Next turn, I can double pillage the harbor at Official Visit and get into position to hit the harbor and plantation at For the Boys.

[ljubljana]

Turn 140 - Phoenicia

Greetings from Pittsburgh International Airport. Going to be brief this time because it's almost midnight and I have to catch a bus before I get stranded here until 4 AM



It is close, but Economy Drive will not fall this turn, with 48 health left on your turn. We are one frigate shot away, so CMF's blockade last turn did cost us a turn here . I am planning to moderate the impact of this delay by moving some of the southern frigates over to Jobs for the Boys to start working on its walls next turn, hopefully managing not to prompt a frigate upgrade there by TAD in the process. I also start in on Official Visit, but it's going to be a slog even if CMF doesn't block the tile next to the city (which I left open for you to pillage/occupy since you will want to take the city anyways). I will rotate in some promoted frigates next turn and rotate out some of the green ones to speed this up, in addition to adding a third frigate since you have made progress on pillaging. I think next turn is mostly going to be about repositioning on my end to prepare for dividing up the fleets.

Nice catch spotting Kaiser's caravel out of position. My caravels are daring Kaiser to attack you with the frigate next turn...I would love to eat that ship as well.



In the north, TAD's embolon + GA caravel has a support bonus of +4 and gets good odds on all our ships. I think I vote for waiting exactly one turn before engaging here, which will get one more of your caravels and three more of mine into the fray. With that kind of numerical advantage, we should be able to handle TAD's ships here, although if Kaiser shows up it might get messy. I almost wonder if we shouldn't wait for my frigates and GA to show up before moving closer to the capital...that would involve waiting 5 or so more turns but should guarantee that we don't get caught out of position here and end up trading caravels inefficiently. IDK, I'm fine with whatever you think is best up here.

edit: I am thinking of doing the naval split based not so much on which frigates are more promoted but on which are injured after we finish up in the south, with the injured ones heading up north with a one-turn pit stop at Linear A to heal. That is one way to take advantage of Phoenicia's unique abilities. I will tiebreak in favor of more promotions given the opportunity, though.

edit2: Oh hey, Kaiser's science jumped 14 points this turn. I guess he has been working on campus buildings instead of on ships? He is almost as dependent on Free Inquiry as TAD and I are, so he needs it, but...I still don't think it's the choice I would have made.

edit3: I thought of another reason why I should make 100% sure to never take any TAD cities...remember how when I gifted WotW my Cothon got destroyed rather than converted into a Dockyard? What if that happens in the reverse case too, and my taking a TAD city will destroy its harbor and lighthouse? I bet that's exactly what would happen, so I am glad that we already have a plan in place under which I will never have to do so .

[ljubljana]

Okay, I did just wake up and am kind of out of it so take this with a grain of salt but...what if splitting the fleet is a bad idea? What if it is making the same mistake TAD made by engaging us piecemeal to negate the effect of his superior numbers? I am a bit worried that if one half of this fleet ran into literally everything that both Kaiser and TAD can muster in 10 or so turns, the resulting battle might be competitive, and it would be disastrous (game-ending, really) to lose such a battle.

Maybe the right play instead is to sail the main fleet clockwise around their island, eating weak Kaiser cities as we find them to reduce their production capacity, then assault TAD's capital after linking up with whatever caravels we keep in the north. That would be slower since we won't be taking cities from two directions at once (and we are on a tight time limit here), and it would put us at more risk from a loyalty perspective depending on how badly the TAD cities are doing once we capture them, but it might be safer militarily.

We could also just steam for TAD's capital with everything we have after we finish up down here, which would guarantee TAD's elimination and let us take out at least TAD's new ships easily while (obviously) removing the threat of him making more, hopefully before Kaiser has time to put together a large enough force to intervene. That plan would be easier loyalty-wise and would have the additional nice features of a) letting us heal on the way and b) our ships ending up right by Russia when the conquest is complete instead of dead in the center of our empire at TAD's capital. Also, since TAD has such a nice cluster of cities around the Solway Firth, we would make up much of the lost travel time from not splitting the fleet because I'd have enough frigates to siege down more than one city at once instead of being stuck grinding down the capital.

IDK, I'm just spitballing here, maybe I'm seeing shadows again and the odds of any Kaiser/TAD fleet taking on even half our ships are basically nonexistent...but what do you think?

[Woden]

I am cool with sailing south. Might also prevent CMF from poaching some of Kaiser's cities if their DoF ends before we can grab them. Have no clue when their DoF ends though. Might be after ours.

[ljubljana]

Might want your input on something before I pass the turn - a Heroic Age would be really neat next for +2 movement on ships, +15% production on military units, and +3 gold per district on international trade routes. However, I think actually getting enough era score for that in the next 40 turns will be essentially impossible, requiring 44 ES points. I am in no position to prioritize ES builds and expect to build exactly two things between now and the end of the game - infra for producing more military units and more military units. If I don't go for the Heroic Age, I should get a Dark Age to make more use of Isolationism. However, one of the dedications gives 1 ES for every naval unit I kill, which could be an awful lot over the course of this war and potentially the first few turns of a CMF war - do you think it's worth taking that and trying for an HA, or should I take something else and content myself with a second DA? I am leaning towards the former because of the potentially huge impact of +2 movement at sea, but I could go either way and figured I'd ask for your input.

[Woden]

Shoot for the Heroic Age and take the dedication that gives points for killing ships. You should have plenty of opportunities to earn points.

Edit: I sent you all my niter and 1,000 gold. The gold is just in case you need it and don't have to wait for me to send it. I already made up 600 of it this turn and will make more next turn.

[ljubljana]

Turn 142 - Phoenicia

Blahhh.



Lots of things to comment on this turn. CMF has a golden age (good for us if it means he won't have one next era, bad for us if he has +2 movement at the start of our war), TAD has a normal age, and Kaiser is plunged into darkness, as am I. My beaker rate plummets to abysmal levels, of course. CMF's caravels reveal their true purpose, an attack on Akkad! Wow, I didn't know that was even possible in an alliance with the suzereign - guess we should have kept that city then. TAD is moving forwards into an exposed position in the north, though I don't get good odds on his ships, but these are not the reasons for the above blahhh. Whence springs the blahh, then?

Here is my plan for the TAD ships up north:



Swap to TV for just one turn, which gives good odds on TAD's two caravels. Kill the westernmost with a double-attack, which I should be favored to get if I use both promoted caravels, then use the space freed up by the killing caravel to double-attack the other and kill it as well. Here is how that plan went:



Blahh blahh blahh. What's worse is that this is my fault - see the highlighted caravel? I forgot to move it into place before attacking, which was worth a +2 flanking bonus on one of the attacks, which was the difference between one redlined caravel and one in the yellow and two dead caravels. Aaargh, I can't believe I'm still making stupid, ameteur-hour tactical mistakes like this.

Here is my new rule: before attacking any groups of units, triple-check everything and pin the desired final positions before making the attack. Triple-check specifically for places where you can add another flanking bonus before moving in. What's maddening is that I even remembered to move both of the two embolon caravels before attacking but NOT the highlighted one, and now two TAD ships are alive that should be dead. 

Blahhh.  At least it doesn't really matter that much - where are these ships going to retreat to? The redlined caravels can hide in the cities and heal, but that will expose TAD's valuable, upgradable quads to a counterattack. They don't really have the movement to escape west, and I can probably hunt them down and kill them from behind if they do try that. And with Kaiser's ships mostly in the south (it looks like), I should have free reign to sweep down in here next turn and start rooting out the survivors. Luckily for me, my two Embolon caravels are both extremely close to promoting (one of them can promote now actually), and so can afford to kill something next to a TAD city and then heal off the damage. I will try next turn to place my ships in such a way as to cut off the production centers from one another and prevent a core of TAD ships from reassembling while also (hopefully) killing any stragglers that he leaves outside his walls. I am also moving in two frigates ahead of schedule (one that I just upgraded) in case I need to get in any last hits on TAD ships in situations like...well, like this one without exposing myself to fire from the city defenses.



In the south, things are going a little better. I think both sets of walls will come down next turn, which should really help our attrition down here. Kaiser looks ready to try to engage us here - I hope he does, I really don't think it will go well for him with no GA vs GA + Twilight Valor + MA. If I were you, though, I wouldn't attack in to his ships next turn unless they come to us - ideally we will get at least one more turn before fighting him so that I can take down the walls first.

Still though, I am absolutely furious with myself for that screwup back there, and played the whole rest of the turn on tilt...luckily there was nothing that I could really mess up, and luckily I have a nice long day (or two days) ahead of me in which to chill out before the next turn when there might be. Hopefully I will learn something from this and actually plan my moves out all the way through in the future instead of rushing into what look like good odds...

edit: Oh, also, I might try a DoF extension with suboptimal next turn. We might want to attack them in 30 turns if they are still alive, but not in 15, and we certainly don't want roland playing kingmaker by razing a bunch of my eastern cities while my navy is away.

[Woden]

T140-Vikings
I start the assault on Harden's Grove or at least I hit it with a Frigate and landed with my Berserkers. I will pillage the horses next turn and take the city. Kaiser has gunpowder, as a musketman is sitting on the lumber mill at his next city (Cutter's Hollow). I hop he attacks my berserker because if I am in his territory, I am getting 67 vs 58 CS against him. When he attacks, it will be 52 vs 58 but I should be able to survive. I should be able to kill his musketman if he advances but I wouldn't be able to take the city. IDK, I think killing the unit is going to be better in the long run. We will see when the turn rolls. 

I do have enough to take Economy Drive, so I do. Kaiser is finally bring some ships over to play....
   

I don't think he can kill my caravel by Jobs For the Boys but he might be able to kill my half-health one a little further south. I don't think he can see him though, so he might be safe. 

I double pillaged the harbor at Official Visit and moved into position to take the city when I can. I don't think I will wait to pillage the 2 mines. I would rather take it as soon as possible and move on to other cities. I think Kaiser will have plenty of pillaging options for me in the near future. 

I send you all my niter and 1,000  I sent the gold in case you need it for something so you wouldn't have to wait a turn for me to send it. If you don't have any immediate need for it, it might be good to buy monuments in any city that doesn't have one. It would be a good use of it to increase your culture. I have only pillaged about 3.5 cities worth of tiles and already have gotten close to 4,000 , so we should have plenty for upgrades down the line.

China came asking for a DoF. He must have wanted to discuss with suboptimal before accepting the one I sent. I accepted since we already discussed a few turn ago. Figured we didn't need to discuss again. 

Next turn, I get a golden age and will take Monumentality. I am also pillaging the horse pasture to finish Reformed Church and will switch to Theology. I am going to lose a Military Policy slot but I think the discount on faith purchases will make up for that. I will probably drop conscription in order to run War of Religion. Raid and trade routes will make up any lose of income.

[Woden]

I think you should try and kill Kaiser's ships west of Jobs for the Boys. I opened the area a bit, so you can hit them with support units (frigates), kill them, and get the era score. Taking the city can be delayed a turn. I will have a full report later this evening or tomorrow morning.

[ljubljana]

Not sure that I agree that this is the best turn for that. Most of my frigates down there are Bombardment, only one is Line of Battle, so I'm not getting great odds. At best I think I could take out one, maaaybe two caravels if I threw everything at them. But I do have two more LoB frigates that are one turn away coming down from Official Visit. I think it might be better to take down the walls at Jobs for the Boys this turn with the units that can efficiently do so, and maybe also kill one Kaiser caravel if I have extra ships or take some potshots to soften them up, and then prepare for the real battle next turn when all of my ships can fire without leaving the city walls firing on us at frigate strength for the whole engagement. It might even be better to take the city next turn to remove the possibility of a TAD frigate upgrade inside the city. I do agree that when we do fight these ships I should try to get as many kills as possible for the ES though.