[PB61 spoilers] Bing Xi Lao stumbles into the ring

[BING_XI_LAO]

Adjusted city placements. Turn 36. Both parties we have contact with have researched Bronze Working.

[BING_XI_LAO]

looking at it, I should probably switch that around to make a warrior in the new place (and a barracks in the old?).

[civac2]

What is the purpose of the barracks?

[BING_XI_LAO]

TURN 40

The disastruous noob idea from a few turns back, of building a barracks, has been averted. Instead, my noob disaster energies are being pointed towards a new white elephant: trying to nab an early religion. 
I'm doing this even before researching farming or pottery, which will hurt my second city a fair bit. I want to skip them to make absolutely sure I get a religion though - after all it's turn 40 (well, 32 when I decided on this) and there's six other players who may be having similar thoughts. Thanks to the mod I can tell no-one has researched Mysticism yet - while I will complete it this turn. It's looking like a done deal!

As my dedlurker has stated, Farming should really be researched before this religion beeline. But I want to only take some things on faith, while finding out how to play well for myself in other cases. So this time I'll indulge my paranoia and make damn sure I get to hinduism first. Actually.... I should get Buddism first because it's cheaper and will delay my Farming/pottery by two less turns. This ain't SP where I can nab a free Judaism as well.

Anyhow, I attacked the Malian's 1.1-injured warrior last turn, on the hills sheep. He came in range while running from the lion. My warrior survived on 0.1, with 2 xp.
After some deliberation, I proposed a ceasefire afterwards, which might seem like both a bitch move, and an admission of weakness.
On balance I decided the ceasefire would be the option least likely to incite Malian retaliation now or in future.
Of course the most peaceful option was not attacking the scouting warrior in the first place.... but who could resist? FIRST BLOOD!
WITNESS ME, SUPERDEATH!

I have a reasonably secure copper, and will be settling on hills: I don't think I should be scared. Plus, maybe the Malians will bank on me expecting them to have their 4 STR Skirmishers on defense, in which case the Malians will expect me to not attack with Axemen, in which case the Malians will not feel the need for a defensive military buildup that would also have offensive potential. Presumably the main way to leverage the existence of the Malian UU is with a greedily scanty defense. If you're on offense with Axemen, you might as well have not picked that UU. Unless the UU is irrelevant/underpowered?
But I'm probably overthinking all of that.

I decided not to bother checking the combat calculator first (after failing to figure out how I could declare war via diplo screen: I had to do that with the move order+context menu option, which prevented me from viewing the odds ahead of combat). I decided that odds of over 50% would be fine if it was a 1v1, but I'll probably have 2 or 3 neighbours, which means only odds of 75% or over are strategically justifiable enough in a situation where no resources are acquired or defended. I was pretty sure the odds were higher than 75% though (game said the odds were 93.14% afterwards).

However, the fact that I'm aware of this calculator could constitute an unfair advantage; should I post the link to it in the tech thread? 
https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/c...et.148354/
Obviously offensive probabilities can be viewed ingame, this is for figuring defensive combat probabilities, I guess.

The copper gets connected next turn as it already had 1 turn's work put into the road and the mine was built this turn. That means the warrior in production will transform into an axeman in production, right?

[Tarkeel]

I find it easiest to declare war by ALT-clicking. Holding alt while mousing over will also give you combat odds against someone you're at peace with.

I'd also like to introdue you to Vodka, which is overkill for 1 vs 1, but invaluable for larger groups.

[BING_XI_LAO]

Now I'm having nightmares of being skirmisher rushed before i can train an axeman. Probably won't happen though...

[BING_XI_LAO]

TURN 45
Fortunately the warrior didn't auto-upgrade to an Axeman, but a Spearman. It's fortunate because I'm being rushed not by Skirmishers, but by Chariots!
They're out for blood, to avenge their fallen warrior pal! (though actually, it's possible this was planned with me as the chosen target before I killed that guy. In which case it was a beneficial course of action).
NB: IN THIS SCREENSHOT REKENNER HAS ALREADY MOVED.
He has a warrior and a chariot next to the wheat, and a second chariot as indicated in fog of war. (I moved a warrior north-west onto the pasture this turn).
He may have more chariots and warriors further away, but I don't think those will matter, because I should have time to make more spears by the time they arrive. It will certainly be a problem if he can bring an Axeman or two anytime soon.

Imagine if my dude had trained as a warrior or Axeman. Or imagine if it was coming 2 turns later. I would instantly get totally destroyed and lose the game.

If Rekenner had "abused" the Pitboss game mode by waiting for me to play this turn before moving these chariots into vision, I wouldn't be queuing a second spearman right now, and it needs a turn of production put in before it can be whipped. With only one Spearman to my name, I guess I could have still defended the city. And if he raided the copper, I would be able to kill a chariot with the spearman. But he'd probably be able to cause me too much damage with the chariots one way or another, and then clean me up within 15 turns max with Axemen I guess, even if I gradually wiped out all the chariots.

Is the lack of a double turn (which being a noob I only know of because I read spoiler threads recently for some other Pitbosses) good sportsmanship from him, or is aggressive double-turning so normal that it's just inexperience/rl time constraints (I guess not as it's the weekend) on his part?
If it's good sportsmanship, I'd best avoid double turning on him. At least not deliberately.

Now, with a second Spearman in training (that can be whipped next turn, in time to show up as a defender in time for his 2nd chariot and warrior to be in place to attack the city). I should be okay.
However, the question is, how do I handle him parking both chariots on the forest adjacent to the copper, with his warrior on the wheat, thus threatening both the city and the copper?
If I react by parking my Spearman, two warriors, and about-to-be-whipped Spearman in the city, then the city is 100% secure. But he could use a chariot to destroy the copper mine. I would kill the chariot, but the delay in reconnecting the copper might make him able to followup with an Axemen rush. So would I have to attack with my Spearman while splitting the warriors between the copper and the city tiles? Or defend with the Spearman and the injured warrior on the copper, while defending the city with the healthy warrior and the about-to-be-whipped spearman? In that latter case, he could attack the city with the warrior followed by both chariots, vs my spearman and warrior. In which case, the "Vodka" calculator gives him a 12% chance to capture the city - thus instantly destroying me as I lose a town and copper access.

Would he try it? For that matter, will he advance next to the copper? Would he try continued aggression and razing the copper mine with a sacrificial Chariot? I guess we will see.
But my main question is, would that 12% risk of instantly dying be acceptable?
 
Also, he has 3 cities, while I have 2 and a Confused Settler (will probably settle north west of cap). That third city placement might end up being ill-defend and razed by a barb if I'm, not careful. Or another aggressive player! So, even if this force of his can only lurk around the edges, I might be in for a slow defeat at his hands.

Anyhow, it's pretty cool to see such aggression. I will be butthurt if I get destroyed this early, but it's the real game, I respect that.

I panicked pretty hard at first but as I think about it, it does seem like I'll be okay. But what sucks is that I'm the one at risk here - he is only at risk of losing some units. Shows why aggression is so much better than defense?

Also, what're the rules about double-turning again? I would hate to get double-turned. I'd probably enjoy inflicting it like a sick bastard too.
I think I saw it mentioned there's an option to switch to sequential turns for wartime, or is that unpopular?

[BING_XI_LAO]

On the plus side, at least my workers aren't getting murderised building farms on the Eastern Frontier - because I don't have the tech yet....

[Tarkeel]

Fortunately the warrior didn't auto-upgrade to an Axeman, but a Spearman.

It's actually pretty easy to tell when and what queued units will ugprade to by reading the civilopedia: A queued unit will upgrade when all the available upgrade options are available, and it will upgrade to the last (rightmost) option.

Example A: Warriors upgrades to axemen and spear, so they will queue-upgrade to spears.
Example B: Archers upgrades to longbows and crossbows, so they will queue-upgrade to crossbows.
Example C: Triremes upgrades to caravels and frigates, so they will queue-upgrade to frigates.

There are some very interesting interactions here, especially for naval units.

[Tarkeel]

Regarding turnsplits, per the etiquette thread you should avoid double-moving where you get an advantage, while still playing your turns as early as possible.

In general it's assumed that going last in turn order is most advantageous, especially in the early game where you can catch someone unaware by a rush, and strike before they're able to whip defender.

Did you have enforced peace after killing the scout, or just a cease fire?