[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

Dump all your votes into +100% to city center buildings, then we can build walls fast. I don't think people are going to focus on this vote and if we can get it to pass and build better walls, we can negate Russia's Frigates.

Then I would also vote for -5 CS for ranged units. Don't really want -5 for melee and don't want to increase the strength of any units. If we nerf melee units, then I will have a hard time finishing off Kaiser.

Put your favor into the first one so we can win it (don't save it). You don't have enough favor to get our way on the second vote. That is what I think.

Edit: Also, if you can get renaissance walls, you could run the card that provides +2 science to help speed up your research.

[ljubljana]

Turn 161 World Congress - Phoenicia



I like the walls idea when stacked with Limes. I will say though that if we end up doing real fighting at our cities we are probably dead though, as Russia will land ground troops and pillage us to death. We have to stop them at our shores as we have no ability to win a war on land... It will definitely help in Kaiser's territory though, where at least Fort Miln needs ancient and then hopefully Medieval walls as fast as we can make them.

Voting to nerf frigates is also fine with me as it helps us out as the defender (and my frigates in the marco area have enough bonuses to overcome it vs cities).

We are up a creek against an emergency if this passes though, which makes me nervous. Maybe Kaiser will be dead by then and we can then cross our fingers that sub's team will help out?

edit: Woke up to play my turn from an actual dream about our DoF inexplicably ending early and Russia crushing all our out of position ships, then landing Cossacks to pillage us back to the stone age. At least our IRL position is better than that one...and as for me, I need to either get less invested in these games or start taking melatonin...

[ljubljana]

Turn 162 - Phoenicia

World Congress did not go as planned...



Dang it, you guys . Theater squares are totally worthless at helping them to stay alive as long as possible/minimizing the odds of a Russian win. I respect the desire to RP a bit to keep things interesting when losing in slow-motion like this (especially since the turnpace has been such a slog), but we really got hurt by it here. Although I guess I shouldn't be complaining too much, as we would have lost even if they had put one vote each into boosting the city center, because Australia tried to stop us from making encampment buildings for some reason? I don't get it...is there some secret strategy we could be employing with encampment buildings that would at all help us to slow them down? It's not like we're really going to hold out on our concessions if there are Russian troops actually on our home islands sieging our encampments down...



aaand there's the melee nerf, which Kaiser correctly passed with all his diplo favor. Again, I kind of like this result for us vs. Russia/Australia, as they likely have a big edge in melee ships but only comparable numbers of ranged ones. But it will hurt us against Japan for sure.



I took down the health at Anoch Sun, will pivot to Have a Good Time next turn. Marco's alliance with Kaiser could lapse any turn, though, so I am a bit worried about a snipe. But look at that...where did marco's ships go? I think the odds of facing down a big attack in the south just went up - I would definitely start walls in Fort Miln ASAP if you weren't already planning to do so.

My alliance with China ended, and they came to me with an offer of...open borders? I accept, I guess, as it will help my scouting sword a bit. Is it ok if I re-DoF them next turn? The odds of us wanting to attack them are essentially zero as far as I can tell, but I'm also fine with keeping our options open if you'd prefer (not that we're ever likely to get a clean shot at them without Russia interfering).

Did you reveal coal yet, by the way? We may need to do that soon just in case we need to divert builders to get it hooked up in time for the war, though obviously I also think pushing caravels for as long as possible is the correct plan. Maybe we should plan to finish Industrial on t165ish so you have time to faith-buy and move builders if needed?

Also, what are your thoughts on our desired war timing? I still think waiting in this position actually favors us long-term, as we have conquered essentially all of Kaiser/TAD while our opponents are now unlikely to get a clean shot at finishing off sub/roland with our navy hanging around. But I also understand if you want to wrap the game up one way or another ASAP, and don't really think it's likely that we'll get much choice in the matter anyways. I will say that waiting one turn could be good for us, as I won't get Wars of Religion online until t169, but that's not worth passing up a first strike for I don't think.

edit: Do you think you could send me only 6 niter next turn so I don't go over 20, along with some of your extra gold? I don't have enough gold to upgrade before accepting your deal like I usually do, so if you send both gold and all your niter and I accept, I will go over 20 and lose it due to an auto-upgrade. If I had caught this during the turn itself I could have just asked you for gold in-game, but unfortunately I missed it until now...

[Woden]

Sucks about the World Congress. The theater square one tells me suboptimal/roland are going i sanbox mode and will probably look to peace out Russia soon. The melee unit one will hurt me, especially since Kaiser will now probably be able to kill my corps berserker in the south. It will delay taking his southern holdings unit I can get more down there.

In the north...



The fleet of marco's you saw a few turns ago down by the former city state island are probably the ships that were blocking the gap by Kaiser's cities. I think it might be best to use this opportunity to send some frigates to take out the walls at Fort Krasia. It will help speed my conquest if I am not getting hit by 2 city attacks. You can send a few over to Have a Good Time but think the encampment is higher priority. Also, I think you can send your ships in the artic south. He knows you are up there and no need to get trapped. I will be able to Anoch Sun in 2 turns. My berserker can get next to the city on my turn but will not be able to attack until T163.

I have not finished Industrialism yet, I am planning to switch to it on my turn and it will finish on T163. I also will finish a civic and switch into limes and start building walls everywhere. What is your plan for civics? I see you switched off of Nationalism. It might be worth it to finish it and run conscription to improve your income (unless you are already running it, then you need to see if you can imrove your income somehow).

As for delaying war, I figure we go as long as we can without war. Waiting on war will benefit us more.

As for China, offer a DoF. Might be able to get another alliance with them.

Also, are you building the campus at your capital yet? That should be a priority, even over ships.

[ljubljana]

I have a screenshot of MPF's ships at Kaiser's cities on t159; I saw the ships by the CS isle on t161. That's not enough time for the northern ships to have made it all the way down there, so they are two distinct groups. With a milpower now over 2k, it isn't too surprising that he would have that many ships in the area.

I don't think marco knows I'm up in the north, but it's probably more important to hit the encampment than to maintain secrecy at this point, so I'll send ships down.

Civics plan is to finish Nationalism around t166 and swap to wartime configuration, which is Press Gangs + Bastions + Twilight Valor + Conscription, but I'll have to take Conscription (or Bastions?) out for Wars of Religion on t169 when it comes in. For now, I want to delay switching out of PA + Retinues for as long as possible for more frigate upgrades. I could swap to Conscription now (out of Isolationism) while keeping those two in place, but that would mean not having Twilight Valor on t168, which I think is too risky given the possibility of an MPF first strike on that turn. Probably better to spend 250ish gold by delaying Conscription 5 turns than to have -5 strength on caravels on the first turn of the war, but open to changing my mind about that.

If I have to run Bastions instead of Conscription though, I'm going to be hurting gold-wise... I am sending TRs to you for gold as they finish up at my core cities and as Demotic makes new traders, but that approach is only treading water so far...

Capital started the campus this turn, due in 3.

[Woden]

I think you are better off finishing Nationalism sooner and getting your economy in order. You can decrease your maintenance costs by merging your ships. Also, you can run the policy that adds culture and science to trade routes and shave a turn off of Reformed Church.

I don't think I should send you any more gold. I want to buy a Factory when Industrialism starts so I can build a coal plant to locate Refining (and Battleships). The factory will also boost most of my cities on the mainland, so it is worth doing ASAP. And then I will need the rest of the gold for upgrades. That being said, I don't know how many quads you will be able to upgrade with negative income and if you go bankrupt, the game will start deleting units until your income stabilizes. Also, upgrading anything right now is only a waste of maintenance, better to hold off until you need them.

I recommend switching to finish Nationalism next turn, swap out of the upgrade cards and speed up Reformed Church. Also, run conscription and start banking gold. If you combined a bunch of units, you should be able to get your income up a bit. Then send me your niter while you can to keep building quads. Then, when Reformed Church finishes, we can see where we are at. If you need upgrades, slot the upgrade cards and then upgrade. Then pay to to do a policy swap to switch things up the turn after. The cost of a policy swap will probably be less than the income you earn during this period, if done right, and you will have finished Reformed Church a turn earlier. If you can wait to upgrade, you can hit Urbanization next and use the combined upgrade card when that finishes.

Also, if you can fit it in, run limes and builds better walls on your south-east coastal cities. If I reinforce my cities, Russia might just sail north and use your cities as a launching pad.

[Woden]

A couple of other random thoughts on research:
I need to start thinking about hitting inspirations:
Ones I should be able to get:

• Ballistics: if I build a Military Engineer, 2 privateers for
  
• Electricity: 2 privateers (I will finish 1 this turn and will build another)
  
• Military Science: I have a knight that may get it on my turn, depending on what Kaiser does
  
• Replaceable Parts: 3 Line Infantry (this depends on where Military Science is located; if it is the dead end tech, might skip)
  
• Steel: Build a coal mine and an Ironclad (easily done)
  
• Refining: Build a coal plant (see above post)
  
• Chemstry: Level 2 Alliance (we should be getting this one soon)
  

Ones that I won't get:

• Flight: Build an industrial wonder (not going to happen)
  
• Combustion: Extract an artifact (probably not worth it)
  

The next few important techs (after Industrialism) are Steel and Refining. The effort need to get them will depend on where they are located and why I need to buy a factory and build a coal plant ASAP. I will know where Steel is located once I mine some coal and upgrade an ironclad but the boost to Refining will be a bit as I build the coal plant.

Edit: I should be getting close to Russia's research rate once the campuses are repaired in Kaiser's cities and you finish the campus at your capital.

[ljubljana]

Are you sure it's safe to buy a factory? That will cost 1320 gold = 8 frigates, and we are most likely about to be forced to fight for our lives starting on t168 from a position of military weakness (1600 point milpower deficit plus a CS deficit as well). The only item I can think of that could make up for that in terms of war odds is a spy if you don't already have one. Other than that, I think all our gold must go to upgrades to maximize the odds of holding off Russia.

If Russia doesn't attack for some reason we can reassess, but I think that's pretty unlikely - they can see our milpower disadvantage and know that waiting favors us since they have stalled out vs. China. They also will not get a better chance than this as they have the only Renaissance GA right now and if we get 30 more turns we will even that out. If I were them, I would attack ASAP, and we should probably assume they will do so in our planning. Our gold edge is almost the only advantage we have over them in a war right now, and IMO we need to push it as far as we possibly can to try to even things out.

edit: In that vein, I might finish Nationalism next turn and swap out of Isolationism for Conscription and start combining ships. I don't know about dropping the half-cost upgrade cards, as we will need our upgrades to be done a few turns before the war starts so we can get into position and it doesn't seem right to spend gold on policy swaps instead of upgrades. I will think about it if it shaves a turn off of RC though, as I don't have any other way to get to Limes in time to make a difference.

[Woden]

The 1600 MP difference is a false difference. I have been combining units as I produce them to save on maintenance costs and to hide my MP. I have something like 10 fleets and a bunch of corps. I haven't seen a significant drop in Russia's MP (although I haven't been tracking it) and haven't see any fleets, so I don't even know if then have Nationalism yet. Those 10 fleets account for ~500 MP difference but also meaning I have +10 CS against non-fleets. This game is not all about who has the biggest army but rather who has the best units. Also, why does Russia has a CS advantage?

Next, let's talk about frigates and walls. I will have Renaissance walls on my forwards facing cities on the main island and Medieval Walls in most of my other cities. My strongest unit will be fleet ironclad with a CS of 80, giving my cities a base CS of 70. Add in 3 levels of walls for +9, bastions for +6. and 2 districts for +4 for a CS of 87. If I put a fleet ironclad in the city, that goes up to 97. A fleet frigate bombards with a strength of 65, 75 with the first promotion. A 75 versus 96 frigate is going to do minimal damage to my cities. If he has the second promotion, it is still 82 versus 96. The era of Frigate is coming to a close. That is why I need the factory and would rather have it more than 8 frigate upgrades. And unlike you, I am earning enough gold for a frigate upgrade every turn, so I can still upgrade then as I build them.

The added strength of walls does help and you don't get it unless you build the walls and it stays when urban defenses come on line. If you go from ancient walls to urban defenses, you only get +3 for walls. That is why I suggest you work on your defenses a bit before the war starts.

As for getting into position against Russia...don't. If he took the extra ship movement dedication, we are going to want him to make the first move (see PBEM7, where CMF was getting into position but was still in range of Sulla's ships and got slaughtered when Sulla attacked). We are going to want to hold back at least 8 tiles from his strike force, so he will have to move up before attacking. As for marco, you should have everything over that way that you need and should be relying on upgrades.

[ljubljana]

Russia's CS advantage comes from the fact that they have a GA that can boost frigates and ironclads, while you have no GA and my GA is committed vs Australia and only works on frigates and caravels anyways. They will also be running WoR for another +4 vs you, unless you think you will convert enough TAD cities before the war that you can run it yourself. Assuming they have an MA and Oligarchic Legacy in place too to offset our MA and your OL/my Twilight Valor, that's a +9 advantage vs you and a +5/+4 vs my ranged/melee ships, respectively. Their GA-boosted normal ships will fight about as well as your fleets if you can't run WoR, and it could be even worse depending on the spy situation (idk if you have one out but I assume they have one in place vs. you) and if they wait long enough to let a trading post complete vs you.

I haven't seen any Russian fleets and I am pretty confident I haven't missed any big milpower drops, but I am not sure how they could miss Nationalism if my pitiful 72 culture (which was much worse 20 turns ago) was able to get there with time to spare. I did get a boost from you which they won't have, but all the same, if they don't get it before the war starts and merge a bunch of fleets, I will be very surprised. I think the only way that could happen is if they didn't research Humanism and therefore don't know where it is. That's certainly possible, but I think it's pretty unlikely given how critical Nationalism is (and they must know by now that it's somewhere reachable since we have fleets ourselves).

I am on board with getting Nationalism to start Limes walls next turn (dropping Isolationism), especially if we don't think we'll be able to confront their fleet head-on at the start of the war. If you still think the factory is the right buy assuming a CS disadvantage vs. Russia and that they will have fleets in 6t (or if you think I'm wrong about those things), let me know and I will drop the upgrade policies too. But I think it would be more efficient from a gold use perspective to hand-build the factory (in the capital where it won't take too long) and upgrade more ships, especially given the military situation. I certainly agree that the age of frigates is coming to a close, but I suspect it still has 20-30 more turns left in it, and I am pretty worried that with our current ship numbers our navy won't survive long enough to get much use out of battleships...

Definitely agree about positioning vs. Russia. I don't think they'd pass up Monumentality for the ship movement dedication, but we should play it safe for sure. We can probably figure that out by comparing their ship positions over two successive turns too.

edit: Between turn 152 and turn 153 I spotted a Russian galley moving 5 tiles. That's impossible without the ship movement dedication, right?