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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/27/world...onaro.html
The city focused by the article happens the be the one where I live in. Brazil is going through dark times and there will be a lot of deaths in the coming months. Bolsonaro is destroying Brazil. It is clear to see that he hates the country and its people. The only chance we have is that Lula can beat him in the next election. All convictions against Lula were nulled this past week (which means he got his political rights back), as the supreme court acknowledged the partiality of Sergio Moro, the judge that led the trial and convicted Lula - the same Sergio Moro that was chosen by Bolsonaro to be the Minister of Justice, after Bolsonaro won the election that Lula was barred from running in due to Sergio Moro's conviction (yes, that happened). Not only that, there were leaked conversations between Sergio Moro and the prosecutors that led the case against Lula, that clearly show that Sergio Moro helped the accusation, suggesting arguments and pointing to potential proofs. I fear we won't have an election in 2022. The government is filled to the brink with military people. Until a few weeks ago, the Minister of Health was a military man, with no experience in anything related to medicine or public health (the new minister is a doctor, but one that is happy to repeat Bolsonaro's crazy speach defending Cloroquine and those other stupid drugs). They'll find a reason for the election not to happen, be it the pandemic or some bullshit about Communism. Our democracy is very close to ending. There's a lot of support in the country of views against the congress and the supreme court. A significant part of the population would welcome a new military intervention. I'm considering leaving Brazil. I'm a very privileged person, so I am not exposed to the horrible circumnstances that a big part of the population is going through. But I'm not seeing a future here and that makes me scared. (March 27th, 2021, 15:45)Ichabod Wrote: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/27/world...onaro.html That's heartbreaking, and the political crisis is already happening. What appear to be the likely outcomes: - Military coup. - Bolsonaro Autoglope (although this seems difficult since this was precipitated by a crisis with the military). - Opposition impeaches and then what happens? Opposition somehow takes over? A Bolsonaro protege takes over? I'm not sure how Brazil's system is structured - if the impeachment that is just filed goes through (and Brazil has absolutely impeached Presidents successfully), what happens next? - Bolsonaro survives but the "sheen" is gone - he'll go into the election a damaged figure but still in control. The US analogy is not terribly comforting here - he'd have a chance to survive and he might not be as damaged a political figure as you or I might like. 
Damaged to whom? It's an old, old story, you don't have to go recent. Pericles didn't suffer electorally for his corruption conviction. I know polls are crap, but from what I've seen Brazil is the only country in the world where the gap between rich and poor actually narrowed last year, presumably because of mass cash payouts...how is the polling looking? How are opinions in the military?
I am sorry for the instability, Ichabod. Curious, where are you looking to go that seems to have a bright future right now?
If only you and me and dead people know hex, then only deaf people know hex.
I write RPG adventures, and blog about it, check it out. (April 1st, 2021, 07:05)Cyneheard Wrote:(March 27th, 2021, 15:45)Ichabod Wrote: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/27/world...onaro.html In case of an impeachment, the vice-president would fill in for the president. The current vice-president is a former general of the brazilian army. He's not as faithful to Bolsonaro as Pence appeared to be to Trump and he challenged Bolsonato in some position already. He also has his own authoritarian vein, which can be seen in speeches celebrating the military dictatorship that happened in Brazil and putting forward the possibility of a new military intervetion (in a speech made during the political crisis that led to Dilma Rousseff impeachment, while he was still serving in the army). The most recent news of the destitution of the Minister of Defense and the resignation of the heads of the military branches shows that Bolsonaro doesn't have that heavy of an influence with the top of the military, as far as I can tell. His influence is way stronger with the Military Polices, which are the police forces of the states in Brazil. He is very close to people from the Miltary Police of Rio de Janeiro, which is a very nasty corporation (Marielle Franco was murdered by two ex-cops, for example; death squads and militias tied to the police have very powerful infliuence on the drug business and the favelas, with extortion tactics and violence). Overall, the current mood in the National Congress doesn't seem to favor an impeachment trial. Brazilian politics has a trait that has to be taken into account: there's not only left and right or the government and opposition. Brazil has left, right and "center" (which is a significant portion of the congress and the senate). The politicians from the center aren't called that way due to their stance in policy. They are "center" because they are up for grabs to whomever is in charge. The same people that were allied with Lula and Dilma (left) are now allied to Bolsonaro (far right). And right now, Bolsonaro has the center with himself and therefore he has a majority. One of the Ministry changes that happened this week was to put a person of the "Center" in the very important position of Secretary of Government (which handles the articulation between the federal government and the congress). To answer Commodore's points: Brazil's economic situation right now is catastrofic and there are loads of people going back to poverty (this will be difficult to know, because the institution in charge of the census in Brazil was severely defunded in 2021). What happened last year, that could be portrayed as a narrowing of the gap between the rich and the poor, is just an effect of a financial help that the government gave to people. It was 5 monthly payments of about 120 dollars (less than that) and 4 payments of 60 dollars, only for people in need (massive fraud ensued, obviously, and a lot of rich people got it as well). Bolsonaro was against it in the beggining (as part of the denial of the pandemic discourse), but he enjoyed the rise of popularity all the same. This financial help will return this year, but with way lower values. But make no mistake, the situation is very bad, unemployment is sky high and food prices are also high. The last set of polls were the worst for Bolsonaro since the beginning of his government, because of the COVID crisis. March 2021 was the month with the most deaths of natural causes in Brazil's history (since the data is compilled). There's shortage of beds, oxygen and medication is hospitals. Lots of people are dying without getting a place in the hospital. Some say that the changes in government positions that happened this week was Bolsonaro reacting to that. The change in the Minister of Defense was supposedly because the former Minister was resisting the desire of Bolsonaro to start using the military for political means (he resisted the pressure to change the Army commander, which was very vocal in his discourse that the military would not get involved in political deals). The new Minister of Defense is another general that was already in the government, in a position closer to the President. His first act was celebrating the anniversary of the military coup of 1964, which is a political statement. on the other hand, the political commentary says that the armed forces are resisting Bolsonaro's pressure and that the corporation as a whole thinks differently from the military people that accepted positions in the government (as I previously mentioned, the number of military men in government positions is very high right now). One of the ministers that left this week, due to extreme political and popular pressure, was the minister of Foreign Relations. The guy was a mad man and very tied to Bolsonaro's ideological allies (conspiracy theorists and stuff like that). He had to leave because he was responsible for Brazil not accepting deals to buy vaccines in 2020, which right now means we are far from the number of vaccines needed for the population. The guy was a total nutjob, constantly badmouthing China (Brazil's top trading partner), distancing Brazil from Mercosul and BRIC's for no reason whatsoever, putting forward conspiracy theories about globalism and actually saying in a speech to the Brazilian Diplomacy Corps that he was proud to be making Brazil into a pariah country in the world diplomatic stage. Considering that one of Brazil's last minister of culture actually paraphrased a Hitler speech, he's perhaps not the worst we had, but he's definetely not far from it. This change in particular shows that Bolsonaro feels he's losing ground. And while that's good, it's also a bit concerning, like cornering a rabid dog.
Thanks for the explanation, I didn't know if the possible military coup would be something pro-Bolsonaro or rather generals themselves stepping in. Sounds like the answer is "could be either", I'm sorry it's all up in the air like this.
If only you and me and dead people know hex, then only deaf people know hex.
I write RPG adventures, and blog about it, check it out.
Well it looks like a majority goverment won't happen in Canada. I predict ether status quo goverment or a goverment that just implements PR and gets rid of the Senate (NDP+Tories wouldn't agree on anything else).
(August 29th, 2021, 02:52)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: Well it looks like a majority goverment won't happen in Canada. I predict ether status quo goverment or a goverment that just implements PR and gets rid of the Senate (NDP+Tories wouldn't agree on anything else). Well it looks like Liberal might get majority, thanks to PPC. Even if they don't they can just do nothing for a year and try again until they get lucky because Tories don't have a partner to work with and PR is them giving up; which will take at least a few more election cycles to happen. |
