[59] Miguelito and Rusten move stacks to berimbau rythms

[Rusten]

Sounds worth it if the wait isn't too long and the missing tile isn't too important.

[Miguelito]

Too tired for a report, but civavc is sending his fleet northwards. It would make sense for an attack on our ol Spanish coast, or be a feint where he charges into the land we got from Elkad. Or somehow he wants to shift those ship off. We might beat his ships, but otoh he could still drop lots of units into our border cities.
His GGs have stayed home so maybe there won't be commandos.

I'm way too exhausted and tired for this game rn. It is possible that the correct play would be an immediate GA so we shave off a turn off the Rifling research. I'm also debating whether to spend 10% on civac EPs. He's dropping 90 per turn into us, against our 30

[Miguelito]

Civac pulled his fleet back to the original spot. Atm I feel like time is working for us. Were pumping ships from drydocks while I have not seen more than one of his, the first ironclads are coming out, and we'll draft rifles soon (we could finish it next turn maybe, although that would involve considerable wealth/ research building). Those will also be needed on the other continent, where I'm trying to fish/ fish Charriu with half our treaty over, while he has a settler in Mjmd's former south.

I fear Amica is going for communism, and with us busy with rifling he can have it if he wants to.

Civac keeps swamping us with EP. How do I know whether he has visibility on a given city?

[Rusten]

There should be a formula somewhere, I can try to look for it. Time is on our side, yes.

[Miguelito]

civac is pushing into the inner sea with force now:


1 is the line of where his main fleets are this turn. They could join next turn on 2. He has a lot of reinforcements, and probably whipped his coastal cities a bunch. I'd have loved 2 more turns for the first ironclads to get into position, but civac is too fast.
His main stack in the north also moved towards us, while in the south it's more diffuse. Of course he'll try to bind forces just by sitting around with his galleons, and in the worst case he can do so from inside his cities .

You see that we're finishing Rifling. Took a credit from Amica (but nearly too little) and set a couple of research and wealth builds in marginal island cities, so we have a cushion of gold and beakers - I have seen many times somebody planning a tech precisely and then somehow costs changed etc. This way we could stomach inflation going up a whole point and then some.

[Miguelito]

Had a quick look into the turn just to confirm that nothing went wrong with the research, but I'm going to keep the order and play after civac (because we can't afford a peacetime double move by him, mostly; also playing after him when war starts is beneficial, and we are already playing after Mjmd so it's good for pace reasons as well).

We got Rifling, and coincidentally civac got MS, which means amphibious grenadiers (I really have to check whether musketeers or riflemen defend against them*) and SoL. The latter are not an issue for our ironclads in the inner sea, but ironclads can't enter ocean, so if he now joins fleets and sails north it's a heavier problem. I think the best thing against SoL, as long as they show up in limited numbers, would be to wear them down with privateers? At least if we can meet him with a fleet of comparable numbers.

I fear there is really nothing that could dissuade civac from war at this point, he's going all in and forcing us to follow suite. It's Picc's or maybe Cairo's game barring a big upset (I can, for example, not really rule out civac actually conquering us - I've made very bad tactical blunders before, my mental state and RL situation are far from ideal**, and he has the initiative while I keep wondering what we could ever do to threaten him so he would want peace).


* ok I have, and it seems that it's an edge case, depending on promotions and probably other boni. Also as long as there are 2-3 of a hill, cultural defense, at least one promotion or a fortify bonus, the grenadiers may not actually get odds. Of course he can bombard culture away, but only if we have no fleet around that he would not want to strike him first. It's no rosy picture, and I'd gladly solve the issue with MGs, but we may get by for a while.

** still very much enjoying the game fwiw, and I will try not to care too much if/when it all comes down. In PB49 I also enjoyed a hopeless situation with some small victories sprinkled in. But if you've read my last few posts and this one, the spirit is pretty defatist and that probably will not win a game or even a war.

[Rusten]

Yeah, if he attacks it will only benefit the other continents. There's still an outside chance you can fend him off and punish with better tech, but you're best off trying to have fun and using it as a learning experience.

[Miguelito]

civac did in fact unite his fleets, but interestingly not on the most aggressive tile:


His ships seem to converge in the central sea from all directions, and there are a lot of frigates trailing.

He could have gone 1E as well. Our main fleet can more or less match his warship count (we have a lot less galleons), but I'll only feel better once we have a few more ironclads build and in position (whipped 3 this turn).
Of course he can now just move his ships north and attack our southern coast. I'm building a second fleet there, but that can't get supported by ironclads (only one or 2 to cover the stack), and of course we need 2 fleets while he, with superior chokepoint channels - particularly the one between his home hub and former Elkad - can move his ships concentrated. So this will only get us so far.

The question is really, can he turn this massive investment into a meaningful gain. I think just razing some coastal cities doesn't count as such, unless he can really break us long term that way.
My faint unrealistic hope is that he actually united his fleets in order to sail them west towards Picc, but that is not going to happen. Of course Picc, who has now nearly 3 home pods all to himself, still has way lower power than us, but he's had Rifling for a good while now, and civac's window would have been better much earlier if he were inclined to attempt an overseas expansion. I did not bother to offer fish/fish to tell him that I would leave him alone.

Btw Charriu sent back fish/fish, which gives me some hope that he will not immediately backstab us once the treaty is over in 3 turns.

We drafted the first 5 rifles this turn, and 3 more came through queue upgrades. Also whipped a bunch, mostly ships, and we're still managing to increase CY every turn, where we are clear, if close, number one this turn. (something like 929 to 906 on 2nd place). As said numerous times, this empire has a lot of potential, but it might never materialze because we have to keep whipping ships.

Oh and we captured an island city of Mjmd's without losses, killing 5 units after both cannons won their fights (CR3 cannon coming up )

[Miguelito]

civac is moving his fleet south. 


This turn they are in NewLockjaw. Probably planning an attack on former Spain. I don't quite know what to do about it, and focus my energies on not getting myself too worked up.

Charriu provides humour:


This is former Ramkland. He has just made peace with Mjmd. I don't quite know what Mjmd is doing - bunkering in his Ramk conquests I imagine. But I would expect him to plot some revenge as well. I have a spy incoming to have a look.

While we keep standing off with civac, Piccadilly has researched Railroad (but no Corp yet, and I think he has no engineer), Frozen has AL, and this is the power graph:


 
(Mind that this power of Picc's and Ichabod is during a war of conquest which they have just concluded

[Miguelito]

I'm slightly hopeful.



You see civac's main fleet. This movement can intend 2 things: He can try to bind forces on our south coast while attempting an invasion or whatever. We have longer ways to get our ships through the canals, so can't easily fight him. However, it would have been far more efficient for him to move north around the torus wrap, or so I think at least. This way he can effectively only threaten Sim Sinhá and La Laouê in the former Spanish SW. We can then actually try to stop him with ironclads in the shallow waters by the islands. Had he gone north he could threaten all of our south coast and islands, including the big one. Our fleet would have arrived a bit faster, but may still have struggled to counter his combined fleet.

Now my hope is that he is actually moving to take over Ichabod's island. I think his fleet is oversized for the purpose, but he may have watched more closely, or just wants to be sure, or press ahead?

Some more notes on him and our relations:

• he keeps spending massive EP on us
  
• he never returned our fish/fish offers
  
• his stacks are staying far inside his borders in defensive position, as are ours.
  
• he has 3 GG (and 3 other GP for another GA) stacking in a central city), now out of range of his ships. He could make some commandoes with that, but apparently doesn't want to immediately. Still the only explanation why he prefers to keep them in stock instead of settling them in a HE city
  
• his scouting of us seems to be rather sloppy. I think there are fleets/stacks that he doesn't cover closely, and I think he doesn't always move his scouts.
  
• He's had MS for 3 turns now. I saw the first single grenadier this turn, and no SoL yet. What's up with that?
  
• You've seen the power graph (last report)
  
• He's been stacking cannons in Yeti, which could be intended for either purpose.
  

So overall a mixed record. Maybe he wants to go after Ichabod, but he also enjoys to keep us drafting and whipping, while our economy is falling behind. If so, he's been very successful at that task.

Him crippling Ichabod would probably be the least bad option for us. Of course I would prefer to have a counterweight to runaway Piccadilly, but fighting civac would be far more devastating. If civac takes that island, we'll be roughly at city parity, so that's ok. We might also get the chance to reinforce our overseas army and push into Mjmd's holdings in former Ramkland, and fortify against Charriu.

So again I try to signal my blessings to an Ichabod war:



I also try to convey to him that we are capable of stacking cities being threatened by his galleons:


Musketeers are pretty awesome for that.

Maybe this is interesting for lurkers:


Not shown is our very moderate number of knights (22?) and insignificant archery. Rusten has pointed out rightfully that we lack galleons, but so far we have lacked warships more. If I use all scouts to uncover civac's fleet I see some 22 frigates and maybe 12 privateers, but as I have mentioned he can move faster thanks to his more favourable canals, and of course because as the presumed defenders we have a delayed reaction.