[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

Australia/Russia may have decided that Kaiser is a lost cause and retreating...or they figured out that being in that bay is a bad idea. Regardless, we might be able to get you a harbor city to help heal your ships. Do you want to take Anoch Sun and Oasis of Dawn? I think Oasis of Dawn has a built Harbor and Anoch Sun has one under construction. You could also take Fort Krasia, it has a pillaged campus that could help you once repaired. Actually, lets discuss this after my next turn and see if any have coal around. If Anoch Sun doesn't have coal, do you want to take it on your turn?

I will pin all the coal I see on the map on my next turn. I have builders spread out in my empire, anticipating coal should be close to 1 or more of them and can hook it up quickly. Are you going to have enough gold to upgrade another frigate next turn? I can send you 2 niter on my turn. I need 10 to upgrade another quadrireme and will have 2 left. Then, if you need more in the following turns, I can go back to sending you 12 for a while.

[ljubljana]

Oasis of Dawn probably makes the most sense as a Cothon city - Anoch Sun's harbor is indeed still under construction, and I think the campus at Fort Krasia makes it better for you to take. I think it is better to boost your science rate further than help mine catch up, since the bottleneck in terms of our odds in a war is your time to reach battleships. Agreed that we should wait and see on coal though - I might just eat the city state if we end up having time.

I should have just enough gold for 2 frigate upgrades next turn, which will cost 330 gold total. After that, we will have to decide on dropping Retinues for Conscription and possibly Professional Army for some culture boosting policy to shave a turn off my WoR timing. The former probably makes more sense as my economy is a mess. I'm leaning towards keeping PA, though, as I do still need to upgrade an ironclad fleet and am still going to have 3 or 4 extra quads sitting around once these next two upgrades are done.

I will also have to decide soon on exactly how many of my ships should be combined into fleets, a question that may not have a clear answer... If all of my frigates could reach an enemy ship on a given turn of the war (a big assumption) and all frigates had equal firepower (another big assumption), combining would be a bad decision, as a) a fleet has firepower equal to only 1.5x that of an uncombined ship and b) having one stronger shot would be worse than two weaker shots even if they represented the same amount of damage, as stronger shots are less flexible and more liable to waste damage on overkill. The firepower issue is alleviated somewhat by combining unpromoted frigates with LoB ones, since the fleet inherits the promotion, but I don't really think I have so many frigates on the Australian front that there's any chance of them blocking one another from reaching targets. Right now I am leaning towards merging my unpromoted frigates with the most highly-promoted ships I have, but leaving the bulk of the LoB frigates unmerged.

Caravels have a better argument for combining, since their hit points are more relevant - I definitely think I should combine unpromoted caravels with the double-promoted ones, at least. But I do only have 9 caravels over by Australia, which is not a ton of shielding...I may leave a few uncombined simply so that they can block more tiles.

[Woden]

There are 19 sources of coal visible on the map with quite a few not within borders. I have 4 sources within my borders (Tibbet's Brook, Angiers, Loki, and (W)Odin). None are hooked up but most have a builder close enough to remove the improvement. You have 3 sources. There are 2 additional sources that I can easily get a city to shortly. I did buy a settler this turn and should have enough faith in a couple more turns for another.

I marked all the coal I could see.

[ljubljana]

Thank you for this info! That is a decent amount of coal, although it's pretty weird that the former TAD lands have none (if I'm reading that right). If there is one at Fort Lakton, I might have made a major mistake by taking that city, since I don't think I can gift it to you until it's out of occupation...

It sounds to me like with just 4 coal sources available to us by t168, there's no compelling reason to have me soak up any by upgrading caravels and maintaining them via coal gifts from you. Should our plan then be for you to make and maintain 12 ironclad fleets and me to upgrade just the one ironclad fleet for city defense strength? That would also free us both up to stick to zero coal reserves and keep building caravels, but if you think you won't have enough caravels for that many upgrades, we could consider having me upgrade more just for the sake of having more ironclads on t168.

I'm thinking I'll stay in Professional Army this turn for the one ironclad fleet upgrade, but swap out of Retinues for Mercenaries and Isolationism for Limes. Then you can dump your enormous gold reserves into ironclad upgrades, plus maybe one or two more frigate upgrades at full niter cost/half gold cost. Does that sound good?

edit: Also, should I assume moving your berserker away from Anoch Sun last turn means you want me to take it?

I am also thinking I will use the Nationalism promotion on Reyna I, since we have a ton of foreign trade routes and I am in pretty dire financial straits. But there doesn't seem to be a way to determine how many foreign trade routes pass through a given city, and I'm also not sure if foreign TRs with that city as a destination qualify for this as well. Do you have any insights into this behavior? If not, I will probably just put her in Linear A and hope for the best...

edit2: This guy has a good explanation of how Land Acquisition (Reyna I) works. Looks like it should provide 3 gpt for each of your TRs that either passes through the city or ends in the city, but no gold for any of my TRs to your cities. That definitely looks like a good pickup in Linear A, though I'm not sure what the exact numbers will work out to...

[ljubljana]

Turn 164 - Phoenicia

Played the turn so as to not hold things up. With Nationalism in, I can now make fleets...but first I took this shot of my beautifully symmetric, fiscally apocalyptic unit maintenance costs



As far as gameplay goes, I start by moving my spy:



ETA t169, the same as WoR and one turn after war could break out. I really hope we are not attacked on t168, and will be very cautious about ship deployments on that turn just in case. But with the Australian ships apparently retreating and the Russian death fleet still nowhere to be found, I am starting to wonder if that's actually what's going to happen. I certainly don't think roland would retreat all his ships like this just to conspicuously sail right back up north and hit me there...it's possible that will happen, but an attack at Fort Miln is probably more likely, which would give me the 1t window I need.



Bruindane, meanwhile, came calling with a research alliance, worth 8bpt to me right now since I still have some old TRs to his cities that haven't lapsed yet. That will go down as I continue to redirect routes to your cities, but for now I take it, of course.



In the west, I take Anoch Sun, and dump the newly-hired Reyna in there to get the time to revolt down to a still-alarming 5t. Next turn, Reyna will leave for Linear A and Magnus will replace her, since Oracle Bones is doomed to flip in 2t (which would have been 1t had I moved Magnus this turn).

I fire at the encampment, but don't take out the walls in one shot, sadly. I thought about delaying a turn to avoid this outcome, but no, we need to take these cities ASAP so we can reposition against Australia. I jam a newly-created Embolon caravel fleet into the breach so that Kaiser will hopefully be unable to capitalize by scoring a kill with walls + caravel attack. Given the odds my new fleet gets against his caravel and the +6 flanking bonus I would have if he attacked, I shoooould be safe here.

In total, I combined three of my promoted caravels with unpromoted ones to make a few strong units, and will also add my unpromoted frigates to the most heavily-promoted ones on the first turn that they don't have targets available. I won't merge the LoB ones with each other, though, as I think two LoB frigates will kill an Australian caravel when the war starts while a single LoB fleet will not. LoB frigates will have a strength advantage of 5 (GA) + 5 (melee ship nerf) + 7 (LoB) = 17, which should be in two-shot range, but the +27 that a fleet will get would not be in one-shot range. That +27 becomes a +32 against frigates, though, so it should still be worth having a few of those around in fleet-fleet battles, in addition to the obvious city-cracking benefits.



In the east, I combined a few unpromoted caravels against my better judgement in the hopes of strengthening my front line at this choke point. This might be a good place to attempt to hold off the Russians, since it provides at least some prospect of negating their enormous numerical advantage. The space between Mitla and Abjad is also an option, but that leaves us vulnerable to a wide flanking move to the north. Or perhaps I should pull back just slightly to try to create a kill zone at (W)odin's walls...

Either way, I'm not sure how many more caravel fleets I will make... I am very worried on both fronts that my caravel shielding is getting thin, and against opposing frigate fire, a fleet is worse than two individual ships unless one manages to re-use a promotion by combining, or if the terrain is sufficiently constricted to prevent full deployment of forces. Against roland, I think it's fine since his navy is almost entirely caravels, but versus williams I am less sure...

How worthwhile do you think it is to combine ships in generic circumstances? I have to imagine it's a weaker option than combining land units because naval warfare is so tactically open, but I'd love to hear your perspective.

edit: Naturally, there totally is coal at Fort Lakton, which we now have no way of getting to you since I can't gift cities under occupation . Perhaps we should consider offering Kaiser peace once we take the two remaining northern cities so that I can gift you the city? Three more ironclad fleets in a war with williams/roland is a significant edge, and the last two Kaiser cities will be a pain to take and will contribute very little to our cause once taken, being small and inland. And, of course, if you end up not needing your ground troops against Russia/Australia, we can always redeclare later.

[Woden]

Turn 164-Vikings
If you remove the walls and health from the encampment, I should be able to pillage it next turn...
   

Otherwise, it will have ZOC until it is pillaged and you will only be able to move 1 tile per turn through the passage. I have a berserker in the ocean that should be able to attack/pillage it if all the health is gone. Also, I moved my northern berserker towards Oasis of Dawn to draw his fire, so feel free to take out Kaiser's caravel. 

Next turn, I will hook up 3 coals and then another one the turn after. I will pillage the cotton at Fort Kasia, which should give me enough faith for another settler. Then, I should have 2 more coals on T168 or T169. We should also be 3-ish turns from taking Fort Kasia for another coal shortly afterwards. That will be 18 21 coal (24 28 coal if I run card that gives an extra coal per source). We should be good to get you a few ironclads.

I sent you all my niter. Please accept the deal even if you don't need it. I have a quad finishing next turn if I prevent it from auto-upgrading to a frigate.

[ljubljana]

Turn 165 - Phoenicia



I took out the encampment health and merged unpromoted frigates into a few of my best ships to create some pretty fearsome city-cracking units. Next turn, I am planning to block the tiles next to Fort Krasia with caravel fleets and smash the walls at Oasis of Dawn with these heavy siege ships. The walls will definitely go down in 1t, and I might even be able to take the city (!), so you should probably pillage the mine up there next turn. That plan will also prevent Kaiser from hitting a frigate fleet with both the caravel and city ranged strike in Fort Krasia; he would be able to hit a caravel fleet with both, but I doubt that would be enough to 2-shot. How does that sound to you?

I also killed Kaiser's caravel on the reef; I am a bit worried about the Mary Rose (caravel fleet in the yellow), which took 24 damage in the process and is not in GA range. It has Reinforced Hull, but I'm not sure that applies to city range strikes...it would be a pretty crushing blow to lose such a valuable ship in such a totally avoidable manner. My guess is that it can't be 2-shot, but I wish I felt more confident about that...

The Dreadnought (frigate in the yellow) is ready to promote, though. Next turn it will take Proximity Fuses - I doubt I'll ever have a need to heal it at a very slow rate in neutral territory, and there is some chance that this ship, as a battleship, will indeed want to defend against air attack someday. The turn after that, I will merge in Artemisia to make a 3-range frigate, then combine it with a LoB frigate to mix that in as well.



On the east coast, we have ships sailing down, just like on all the other turns. I made a cute little LoB quad fleet so I can save on niter if we ever want to upgrade it. That could be a pretty good use of 330 gold in a few turns, IMO, if we have extra left over after the great ironcladdening.



Oracle Bones will flip next turn, as I've been counting down for a little while now. The timing is really awkward for us, as there's no good way to recapture without leaving us out of position vs. the Russian fleet. If one of us does try to take it back, it should probably be you, as it would just flip away from me again if I tried.

I also finally (finally!) noticed something very important and, indeed, downright terrifying:



Even though China is in the game and has been in a war of survival for the last 50+ turns, the Terracotta Army has not been built . Is there any conceivable way for you to get there before williams can? If he builds that wonder right now and gets a free promotion on every ship in his 4200 milpower navy, we are pretty much done for and may as well GG. But if you can snatch it and get Embolon on all your unpromoted caravel fleets, our odds will look much better. I forgot to check, but do you think you could take a look next turn and see if he a) is making at least 2 Great General points per turn from Encampment + Barracks and b) has actually started the wonder as reported in the gossip screen?

edit: I notice now that the city south of (W)odin has at least one unused chop in that screenshot, and I'm fairly sure it has an encampment as well. Is that a possible site for faith-buying a few builders and Magnus-chopping out the wonder? I think that is a much more impactful use of the faith than a settler for 4 more coal, since it sounds like we are on track to be gold-limited on ironclad production anyways. Both you and williams are fielding mostly-unpromoted ironclad fleets as your best units right now, so if you get the wonder while denying it to him, that is tantamount to a 14-point CS swing in your favor.

edit2: Also, I noticed you are researching Urbanization due in 6. Do you have any civic banked with 1t to completion as of now? It's probably worth getting one if not so you can swap into Wars of Religion and Oligarchic Legacy on the war turn.

[ljubljana]

...I went back and loaded the save to check on this, because duh, of course I can just do that. Here's the situation - Russia and Australia have...



...no GG points between them, thank goodness. And Heimdall has...



...Magnus already in place and two available forest chops and a few jungles that can be purchased and a lumbermill that can be removed if needed. I don't think I can recommend this move strongly enough, it would take you from behind williams' ironclads by 5 points from his GA (8 if he has a spy or trading post advantage) to even or ahead of him in CS. That is just what we need to have a fighting chance in a fleet vs fleet battle if he does attack us, and I'd be shocked if CMF is not making the same argument in Russia's thread now that Sullla's writeup has everyone thinking about PBEM7 again.

[Woden]

I was going to use the forest chops at Heimdall for getting the walls up quickly but I do like your idea. I would have to lose the rice but that should be do-able. The question would be, do I harvest the rice or forgo the extra food or start it right away? I overflowed the chop for the encampment into a barracks that will finish on my turn and can start it right away. My only concern would be if I can get at least medieval walls up there before war breaks out.

The only civic I have that is at 2 turns is Civil Engineering and I don't want to finish that because Bastons and Limes become obsolete with it. Urbanization will finish either on T168 or T169 (first turn of war). I also have a spy traveling to Russia and will arrive on T169.

Speaking of PBEM7, we are going to have to make sure we are positioned to limit any benefit for 1st strike.

[ljubljana]

Do you remember how much the Magnus chop for the encampment was worth? I wouldn't be surprised if it's more than 200 hammers at this stage of the game; if so you might be able to overflow onto Medieval Walls, and if they look urgent enough based on williams' moves, it might be ok to buy the second-ring jungle to finish them. The tile picker should pick that tile up next by natural expansion too, could be worth checking to see how close that is.

Timing could look something like:

t165 - buy builder for NE chop, move SW builder to rice, finish barracks and start walls
t166 - buy builder for W chop, remove rice farm, keep building walls
t167 - harvest rice, switch to terracotta army, chop out wonder, overflow onto walls

Probably best to not start the wonder until the same turn we chop it out if the two chops are worth more than (400 hammers - one turn of natural production), as it will show up in the gossip screen and give Russia a chance to plan a snipe. We could accelerate by 1t by skipping the rice chop if we are worried Russia is already considering the same plan. They would probably need one more chop than us to get the encampment + barracks up, but I see no reason they couldn't do all three builds in one turn if they have enough chops, so it may still be possible to lose the race without warning if they have the right setup. Maybe we should look over their territory next turn and see if they have any good sites for chopping it out - I am wondering if the reason they haven't gone for it already is the lack of a flat grass/plains tile adjacent to a valid encampment position...

Good to hear on the spy - mine arrived this turn as well, and I will have my second one in Australia on t169. Civics plan sounds good, and agreed on the first strike. My best guess is that they will use the first turn to have Australia liberate Hod...not sure if it's worth trying to defend either of the former CS since they are so exposed, but at least their visibility + ZoC will give our ships some cover from Russia on the first turn.