[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

edit: How is milpower calculated for fleets? It is equal to just the sum of the base CS (ranged CS for frigates) for non-fleet units, right? I want to do an exact count of what's visible before I move my ships south into a possible first strike from the fog.

edit2: According to my understanding of how milpower works (and please correct that understanding if it's incorrect), this force represents:

3 ironclad fleets * 80 = 240 milpower
7 caravel fleets * 65 = 455 milpower
3 caravels * 55 = 165 milpower
3 frigate fleets * 65 = 195 milpower
5 frigates * 55 = 275 milpower
2 coursers * 46 = 92 milpower

That totals to 1422 milpower, barely a third of their total strength. I could be very wrong about how MP is calculated, or they could have a major ground force somewhere, but if neither is true, there should be a second fleet somewhere that is significantly larger than this one.

MP is melee strength for everything (frigates use their defensive strength, or 45 for regular 55 for fleets). Fleets add +10 CS over the single unit. I think it also adds promotional strength, so everything with the +7 CS against ships adds 7 to MP. Health of a unit is also accounted for, so a half health unit MP is whatever its melee attack would be if it attacked/defended.

[Woden]

Also, I think he has both the Great Lighthouse and the dedication that adds +2 movement. I marked a GA last turn and it looks to have moved 8 tiles, it should be only able to move 5.

Great observation, thank you for that heads up. That means if I move my ships down at all they will be in first strike range...probably not a good idea with Russia able to see my entire fleet with their traders + missionaries... Maybe we just need to attack after they pick a target and thereby lock part of their fleet in place.

edit: Wait, they CANNOT attack us on their next turn, t168, correct? I am fairly confident about this, but if you are 100% absolutely confident, then I can move the ships down...

Yes, war starts on T169. No friendship on my T137 but friendship on T138, which means I offered it on my T137 and he accepted it on T138. It runs 30 turns but doesn't count the turn it is accepted, so it actually runs 31 turns. We run into this in every game, a lot of people don't understand it., which is why I think Russia moved his units up on this turn. I suspect they think it ends on this turn.

[ljubljana]

Ok, so I probably overestimated because of the frigates but underestimated because of promotions, which I imagine will probably roughly cancel out. So probably another fleet at least this large in the fog somewhere. If I had to guess, it would be that the second fleet is a turn behind this one and will eat the CS while the fleet we can see works on the mainland. But over by Japan is also plausible, since if they overwhelm us there we lose the game as well.

Remind me, do you have enough Catholic cities that WoR will be active for you if you switch next turn? If not, that probably disincentivises paying for the policy switch.

edit: Good to hear about the friendship expiration. I will consider moving my ships down a bit this turn, idk will need to think it over.

[Woden]

Remind me, do you have enough Catholic cities that WoR will be active for you if you switch next turn? If not, that probably disincentivises paying for the policy switch.

Doesn't matter, it is broken and I will get it. Ran into it in PBEM18. I get it regardless if I technically am following my own religion.

[ljubljana]

Remind me, do you have enough Catholic cities that WoR will be active for you if you switch next turn? If not, that probably disincentivises paying for the policy switch.

Doesn't matter, it is broken and I will get it. Ran into it in PBEM18. I get it regardless if I technically am following my own religion.

OH lmao, ok, that is great news for us! Hopefully I will still get it too even though I didn't found your/our religion...which is probably a situation that has NOT come up in a PBEM before...

[ljubljana]

Turn 168 - Phoenicia

Pre-turn, I notice that we finally have a resolution to a question I've been wondering about all game: are my cities simply immune to loyalty pressure from your cities, or do your cities actually provide mine with positive loyalty?



I do not know enough about the math about how loyalty pressure works to know for sure, but the pressure from population was -20 last turn - for it to flip to +3 from you conquering FK seems to strongly suggest the latter to me.

Here is the situation up here at end of turn:



The wounded ships at OoD would like a turn to heal, and it may be worthwhile to push the eastern caravels forward a bit given the weakness of my caravel line here. But otherwise we are ready to push on Australia as needed. We are going to have to watch out for that galley, though, which will be worth its weight in gold to williams if it runs around in our backlines and pillages all the English harbors with its enormous amount of movement points... Not sure if it's worth keeping a ship around here to deal with that, though, or if we should just let it pillage once and kill it with city fire.

I now pretty firmly believe that we should think about peace with Kaiser now that we have these cities, and with war against Russia/Australia looming. We would get a bit amenities boost from war weariness if accepted, and would be able to fight off R/A longer without worrying about the same. It's also hard for me to imagine it will be worthwhile to send any ground troops we have down to Kaiser's last two landlocked cities when they could go to Australia instead. But I am persuadable on this - what are your thoughts?

Here is my adventurous naval deploy in the east:



I came down here in case their deploy leaves them susceptible to a first strike, but I have a really bad feeling about actually trying to take that if it happens. My line is quite flimsy in a configuration like this, and they can surround me with breathtaking ease. The pinned caravel has NINE movement points (5 base + 1 GL + 1 GA + 2 dedication), and williams' front line could swing all the way around and hit the NE section of my line right now, on THIS turn, if not for the DoF. I am very afraid that I will be walking into a trap if I engage a force like that anywhere other than north of that small island where I can't be surrounded.

But we also have to find some way to allow our two fleets to engage williams in something close to the same spot, or we will be defeated in detail like TAD was for failure to unite our fleets. I am not sure what to do here...I can't even pull back to the NW, really, as the Russian ships will simply run my fleet down as it flees. I think I will have to fight either here or at the small island, and I do not love either option.

oh...oh, oh, OH, I just realized a strong reason to DoW on williams rather than the other way around if his forces are close to mine next turn. If I form a defensive line at the island, he can just slip half his ships past mine, to the northwest, BEFORE declaring war. Then, he can turn around and DoW with half his fleet on the wrong side of my line and I will be totally surrounded and deeply, profoundly dead. Blah, what a great move by them to snag all those movement bonuses...

We need to decide what to upgrade this turn too, btw, as I need to switch out of the half-cost upgrade policy this turn for WoR. Do you think it's worth upgrading the LoB quad fleet? This would take 330 gold and 40 niter, and we should have exactly enough niter to do it next turn between the two of us if you send me your niter and a bit of gold. Otherwise, I think all ironclads is the play, but I may need to upgrade one this turn rather than later while it is still cheap to do so.

Policies next turn will be WoR/Twilight Valor/Mercenaries/Press Gangs, no room for Bastions or Limes. You may want to make sure to get Oligarchic Legacy after your swap too, btw, which I think has a better return for than Limes or Mercenaries or maybe even Bastions.

[Woden]

Still playing turn but here is what I see...
   

Not sure if attacking on your turn is feasible. It looks like he is just out of reach of your fleet. It might be best to make sure you are mostly out of range of him and let him make the first move. He looks to be going after Hod and Freya but might actually go after Heimdall. Part of me thinks I should chop out the walls at Heimdall and chop out the wonder next turn. I say that because it only takes 1 hit to prevent walls from being built, so if hits the city with 1 frigate, I am SOL.

[ljubljana]

Do you see the wonder on anyone's gossip screens, or anyone generating GG points? If not, I am fine with chopping the walls out first.

edit: ship numbers looking more like what I'd expect now that they're all fleets. I think we might be in trouble here...

[Woden]

I went with the wonder. Better to have the added strength if he goes for my small fleet.

Edit: Yes, I don't know if we can stop him.

[Woden]

You should probably teleport your GA over to the main theater, if you haven't yet.