[59] Miguelito and Rusten move stacks to berimbau rythms

[Miguelito]

Been a lot of depression here lately, and it seems like it has driven away Rusten .

But there's hope!


This is his return message from last turn after I sent him the same without conversion a turn earlier. I'll take it that he'll be at least temporarily busy over there. That's great, because it finally gives us the window to launch our GA and even take Caste. Starting in 2 turns, so we finish Constitution before and can take Rep for the GA - not really a big advantage, but we'll run a few specs extra and we have some free ones from Salons by now.
I'm tempted to also adopt FS over Nat, but that would probably be pushing our luck. But I think we can afford Pacifism - and we sort of need it, because Amica got the Communism spy, so we need to get out a third GP - unsure yet if the best thing is to get 2 from Paraná, or the artist from Maré, somehow - I recalculated, and getting the artist for 900 points should actually be feasible with Pacifism. Now we just have to hope for no artist from Paraná.
During the GA we want to research Corporation, Railroad and Democracy. Maybe I should check if we even can, but that seems like a lot of work. Probably I'd just delay Railroad if it gets hairy.
I'm not quite sure if we'll still want to build Wall Street in Bonfim with one of the Engineers. Bonfim can't get a levee, which is a shame, but with US it will get a lot of extra hammers. Otoh we can just build it in Corta Cana, where I am going to whip the levee next turn for the GA. CC has a bit less commerce though, and the gap is going to widen yet, as Bonfim has quite a number of villages going to turn into towns yet. The engineer would be saved for Redentor I think, although I'm quite doubtful if we can even contest it against Picc's/Frozen's tech.

Charriu also sent fish/fish (on his own initiative, after I showed him our first 2 rifles), then this turn I see this:


I'll try to take him by his word, partly because we can't do a whole lot against it either. I hope that this is some scheme to take Mjmd land in the north, probably splitting with us. Otoh our spy also sees an Mjmd stack (which can be managed in isolation), including a settler, so Mjmd seems to be trying for a comeback, and they might be coordinating. So maybe it's better to just fall back to Wellerman, again? But this would be really scummy by Charriu, to attack right after he signalled friendship, and I don't want to think he'd do that. Bringing more rifles anyways.

[Rusten]

I'm still watching and reading, just didn't have anything noteworthy to say. I also get fatigue just from looking at the number of cities everyone has -- I'm so glad I didn't sign up. Your stamina is
praiseworthy.

Things are looking on the up.

[Miguelito]

I'm still watching and reading, just didn't have anything noteworthy to say. I also get fatigue just from looking at the number of cities everyone has -- I'm so glad I didn't sign up. Your stamina is
praiseworthy.

Things are looking on the up.

Glad you're still around. If you feel like it, it would be very helpful if you could cycle through the cities once and see if the building queues make sense to you. I feel like the forges I build in some places are a bit random.

Several of the other guys with 40+ cities empires are playing their turns in 15-30 minute windows. I don't have the concentration for that and play much slower, but that also means relaxed.

I wanted to take Mjmd's last island city (apart from the ones on the easter astro island) this turn, but lost 2 95%+ battles (won when I yolo'd the medic chariot at 88%, so it is not too awful). But next turn that should finish. Still not sure what will happen on their mainland, but I keep on bringing rifles.

The effect of reduced whipping and drafting is noticed:


5 turns ago we would still end the turns below 900 food. Although I also whipped a bunch in preparation for the GA, including some pretty heavy ones for levees, so that figure went down to 980. Still pretty nice, and will surely shoot up during the GA when we take away the whip. I am still feeling anxious about taking it away permanently after the GA (by taking emancipation), but hopefully the draft and US rushbuying will be enough.
I'm also still tempted by taking Free Speech during the GA on top. civac's navy is sailing towards Ichabod, and without it he can't really turn to offensive - and it has quite a few turns of travel time back to where it can be truly dangerous.

Also pictured, MfG, and moreso GNP, still terrible. Also #6 pop (#8 after those whips), while top food.

[Rusten]

Had a quick look yesterday, I think most stuff made sense. I removed one forge from queue (by Charriu) and remarked that another felt pretty wasteful, but not a big deal. I also made a comment about culture to win a fish near Charriu. We are in slavery still are we not? I loaded up a library that we can whip this turn. Being first to 100 culture is very important in that city. We don't know when/if we get a chance to claim it by force.

[Rusten]

I am still feeling anxious about taking it away permanently after the GA (by taking emancipation), but hopefully the draft and US rushbuying will be enough.

Emancipation is not mandatory, it's just nice to speed up our cottage growth. If you're worried at the end of the GA you can switch back to slavery.

[Miguelito]

Emancipation is not mandatory, it's just nice to speed up our cottage growth. If you're worried at the end of the GA you can switch back to slavery.

That goes a bit towards the question whether we are still playing to win, or defend 2nd spot (where I would tentatively place us right now).
For defending we can keep on matching civac's power, stay a bit ahead of him technologically, and consolidate against Charriu/Mjmd.
To win, and of course we want to, we need a boost for both MfG and GNP. MfG is somewhat covered with US, levees and most importantly Mining Inc (fingers crossed!). GNP of course will improve with growth and gradual improvement, but I feel like we need something more - also considering that spreading Mining Inc will cost a ton of money - and I guess Emancipation is the best bet.
If 5 turns into our GA it looks like civac is attacking, we have to revert to slavery, sure. The question then is, is Democracy worth researching for US alone.
But my hope is that

• We've built up a bit of good vibes with the amicable Elkad split and us not interfering with his Ichabod invasion
  
• By the end of the GA we'll be building MGs and we'll be very close at least to drafting Infantry, invalidating most of his standing troops
  
• Conquering that island he'll stretch his borders, also increasingly having to watch Picc who might be going for Combustion right now, so he can't really afford a war.
  
• He clearly was preparing an attack on us, but refrained from it (also stopped spending EP). The time where a war against us could lead to him actually winning the game is running out. Of course if his goal then is to improve his civ's standing expanding into us will always be attractive, and we definitely will have to keep on building significant military.
  

Short time I think he really doesn't want to fight us. So I want to run Rep/FS/caste/FM/pacifism during the GA. Research Corp/RR in the first couple turns, then Democracy during the last few if it looks like we can afford Emancipation. The sad reality is that I don't know yet if we have the commerce for all three techs within 7 GA turns, and I can't be bothered to calculate it (it seems really hard ). We'll... just make it work somehow?
At the end of the GA, ideally switch to US/Nat/Emancipation/FM/Theo (ideally ideally OR, but we need 2 promo ships). If an emergency arises, we should have the 3 GP GA already ready to fire, or very close to it.
I'll try to play after civac this turn, so he's one turn further away when he sees us adopting those civics. Depends a bit on Ichabod's schedule though.

[Miguelito]

I played before civac, but fired the GA as laid out all the same. We get Corp on the first turn, then RR and Democracy should just work out, including the Corp TRs.
civac had landed on Ichabod's island already, so hopefully he is busy for some time:


Took 2 cities on turn one (the other one W of the rice) I sent him fish/fish, which he hasn't sent back on our previous attempts. Also we captured Mjmd's last island without losses:


Very nice buildings I offered peace without thinking too much of it, hopefully Charriu won't get mad (I'd be surprised if Mjmd accepted, anyways)



What does Lazteuq want with all those ships in our waters? I actually drafted a rifle on the astro island to have at least something on hand. Also he continues to refuse OB, even for an incense bribe. Why Laz, what is your problem with us?

An even greater mystery:


Why is civac not working that crab

[Miguelito]

Still no time for a proper report, but civac sent back fish/fish, and Mjmd made peace, so we live true to our Pacifism civic
Piccadilly started a GA, which dwarves ours. I don't see how we'll stop him, but I'll try my best to develop the civ.
Trying to get credits to eke out Railroad within 2 turns.

[Miguelito]

We took a total of 800 gold in credit, all at 15%, so we can finish Railroad this turn and even have some left to spread Mining with the free executive next turn. Amica tried to increase the tax on 200 gold I asked for to 25%, which I could afford to refuse (I had accepted the same offer 10 turns ago, when it was needed to finish Rifling, it was far into the turn, we were logged in simultaneously and spontaneously it occurred to me to ask.

400 gold was from civac, which indicates that he's not planning to declare on us during the next 10 turns (or it's an especially devious move ). That is reassuring somewhat given that he is moving the bulk of his fleet back towards our inner sea. The conquest of Ichabod's island took no more than 3 turns (Ichabod playing <10min on each) and they made peace since. I have seen a bunch of knights that he left on the island, as well as a minor fleet of some 10 ships. He seems to be going for Railroad, probably Combustion afterwards, so we'll have to do the same, although AL is tempting. civac needs destroyers soon because Piccadilly is pretty close to them and could just take over that recently conquered island. I hope we have friendship, but I feel that that at least requires us to keep up in power. With Railroad the continental defense of course becomes a lot easier, so we must take care chiefly not to become vulnerable at sea, hence destroyers are needed. I am really curious for his thoughts on our relations after the game. Sadly it seems that he has stopped posting even on civforum by and large.

Some GA impressions:


surely you have seen better, but still I'm fond of it



I rushed the Wall Street, in anticipation of the Mining HQ. Still not sure if that was worth it, but the city has 200 base commerce on its own already. This is also the one city where we're truly out of sensible building projects; that's ok as the city can go for execs nonstop for a good while. Also Bonfim might actually see a hammer increase with the end of the GA when we switch to US, assuming we do.



Somewhat to my surprise, the capital is still competitive with Bonfim in terms of commerce. Actually after the GA and dropping FS it might come out on top, which is due to its very awesome trade routes. I'm actually tempted to build a Customs House here, but for now executives will have priority. So maybe the Wall Street should have been built here (also somewhat more difficult to reach for civac's commandos), but shrug



I feel like we've been building this since forever, because we have. Not sure if that's a sign of my incompetence, or if it is just so darn difficult to build. But we're getting within eyesight of finishing.



We captured Wellerman at size 15, but I had to whip away half of that first to expand culture and minimize the starving, and then for a rifle to counter Charriu's emerging cuirassier stack. Growing back since, and it's another city that migt see a hammer boost with the end of the GA and US.

Around Old Portugal Free Speech's +100% culture has been particuarly useful:


On the one hand it saves an artist turn in all the little new cities which need a border pop during the GA, but also we can comfortably get 3rd ring borders in Wellerman, Cousin Jack, and Old Billey, hopefully securing the 2nd ring resources for some time. Charriu can just build culture there until the tiles flip back, but at least we'll have an advantage.

Our little paradise island is developing nicely:


I think the best thing will be to largely plaster it with Emancipation cottages. Maybe set up some ship production in Ginga and Solta Mandinga.

Finally, some graphs to show how we're still not winning:








Frozen's graph are new. He has 17 cities and outside the GA he was significantly ahead of us in MfG - he's the only one with factories already - not to speak of GNP.
Here is his land:


Basically built a cottage on every legal tile, and grew his cities into the sky. However, he remained without a conquest. Probably neither Picc nor Ichabod were easy targets earlier into the game, but also the commerce focus may have limited his abilities to raise his power. I was thinking he might stab into Ichabod while he is fighting civac, but it didn't materialise. Also he's playing very short turn so likely doesn't care. He still has the tech leadership, but if Picc ultimately comes after him he'll be a very tasty conquest as well.
Frozen's game in PB 88 had some similarities - tech leadership well into the industrial age, only a belated minor conquest, a few very nice cities that ultimately had not enough substance to compete.
Picc as mentioned has way better numbers during than us since he fired his GA last turn. Being 2 turns from Corp he can't take Mining away from us anymore even if he somehow has an engineer (I don't think so). He has the Apo shrine, consequently the Apo religion with temples and monasteries everywhere, and a whole bunch of wonders conquered from Cornflakes - some of which thankfully are obsoleting soon. But he also has two underexpanded neighbours on his continent who seem rather disinterested in the game at this point, and who have very attractive land, so he might unify his continent yet.

My excuse is the power graph, which tells of the endless arms race between us and civac, while Picc could develop merrily, and still conquer, with maybe 2/3 of that power. But also he evidently is playing a very strong game, not to take away from that. One thing about the civforum veterans is that their games regularly go into the industrial age and not uncommonly all the way to AC, so they have experience at this stage of the game. Meanwhile I have never really been there even in single player, so my play is mostly informed by theory at this moment, which may turn out badly yet.

Here's the current demo with us at 100%:


civac is first in power and CY, and I believe Picc both in GNP and MfG, although I wouldn't rule out Frozen for GNP completely

[Papa Bear]

Bear in mind that pretty much all the games over at Civforum are played on Deity instead of Emperor difficulty level, which is also making things easier for them here than it is usually over there at this stage of the game. Probably why many of them are looking somewhere between "ok to really good".

Thanks from me as well for keeping up the reporting! As you have mentioned as well, there are hardly any updates over at Civforum anymore, sadly... This may be due to the shorter time window per turn, I think. In the early stages of the game, this speeds things up nicely. But in the current stage, one really has to think about investing the "proper" amount of time for playing alone, not even talking about reporting, on top of that...