[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

I do have a +5 CS advantage against his best ship (this includes the GA). Even if he goes after my ships, I figure he can kill 2 ironclads, maybe. Moving up is a good play so if you think it is what needs to get done, do it.

[ljubljana]

He can only kill 2 per turn probably, but the issue is I am not sure you can kill any of his clads in return, and if I am 3 turns away (which I will be if I move north), he might not lose any ships doing that. At least if I move up I will have a decent defensive position and he will have to fight both of us at once, so he can't commit all his frigates to your clads and kill them for free.

I think I will declare war and do it (and at least soften up his front line a little with my ships that are in range) if that's okay with you.

[Woden]

He can kill 2 per turn probably, but the issue is I am not sure you can kill any of his clads in return, and if I am 3 turns away (which I will be if I move north), he might not lose any ships doing that. At least if I move up I will have a decent defensive position and he will have to fight both of us at once, so he can't commit all his frigates to your clads and kill them for free.

I think I will declare war and do it (and at least soften up his front line a little with my ships that are in range) if that's okay with you.

I think that will work. He is going to have to decide who to attack. I don't think he has enough to attack both of us and if he commits to your fleet, he will be vulnerable to my counter attack from behind. Same goes if he focuses on me.

[ljubljana]

Luckily if I fight at that small island, he will only be able to commit 5 frigate shots/turn against me (actually fewer than I have), and if he tries to crack my line with ironclad shots he will have to fight through support bonuses and the GA. If I could pick anywhere along our coast to station my navy to limit the impact of his numbers, this is probably where I would do it.

I wish I could get more of a first strike in while doing so obviously, but that was always going to be unlikely with his movement advantage. Better to do this than have him engage us one at a time. And this way I can reinforce my line too and just flood caravels at him instead of having to switch all my cities to useless pike/shot.

edit: I of course also wish I could move up without DoWing so I don't grant roland his free hammers...but the silly movement rules of Civ6 will let him move his ships past me before declaring to get a surround if I do that, so it's obviously out. A little immersion-breaking there, I'd say, but I guess what can you do

[ljubljana]

Still agonizing over what to do about this...

In order for us to survive this attack, we need to remove its ability to take our cities. That means killing all or most of the 10 frigate fleets at its heart. We also need to do this (IMO) before any mainland cities actually fall, or we will have to switch all our builds over to ground units and will probably still get pillaged so far into the ground that even fending off the attack will not allow us to remain competitive.

It seems pretty clear that our fleet cannot do this (kill all 10 frigates) in a straight fight, even if we both attack in the same place like we could right now. He has no real reason to expose his frigates to you, and can just stall you at the choke between Balder and the mainland by building a wall of caravels and the like. You would trade efficiently, but not damage his fleet's overall city-taking power. Meanwhile, I can hold a defensive line in the north for probably 3-4 turns. I have about 10 caravels up there (some not even fleets), and I think I can build a line that would give him only 4 frigate shots and 5 melee attacks or so to work with per turn. But he will still kill 2-3 caravels per turn, and without at least 6 my line will collapse. I am producing more as quickly as I can, but that is not quickly enough to change the basic math of the situation. After those 4 turns, all my frigates will die - I may have killed some of his in return at that point, but I don't think that's too likely if he is smart about his offensive tactics. The rest will then sweep north and go for my cities. From that position, I don't think we really have any chance of survival - he will siege down my cities, start buying cossacks, etc, at will, and all I can do in return is injure frigates with city fire.

What we need to have a shot at stopping this fleet is to attack it while that core of frigates has already been weakened. That means fighting it as it tries to take out one or more of our cities, which ideally means having lured it into the Abjad/Mitla/Abugida trio. I think it would be a mistake for him to sail up there if I retreat this turn, since he can trap your ironclads and then kill them over the next 3-4 turns. But we may need him to make that mistake to have a chance to win. If he sails up to Abugida, and takes a few turns to take it down, and in the meantime I am killing one frigate fleet/turn with the city defense fire and a LoB fleet in the city...and the same happens at Abjad and Mitla, then maybe we will have removed the fleet's ability to take our cities, or weakened it to the point that our combined fleets can defeat it.

I guess I think we are dead if he goes for your ironclads this turn, but also dead if I move ships up and try to hold a defensive position vs his first strike. If survival requires him to attack my cities, then the best move is the one that presents him with the option to do so, ie retreating. But let me agonize over it for a few more hours first...

[ljubljana]

This is the defensive line I would be going for if I DoWed and moved up:



Only 4 frigate attacks per turn against my front-line ships, one of which would be in range of the capital's encampment. and if they occupy the reef tile, it is in range of the city center. I would definitely still lose 2-3 caravels per turn here, especially if Russia mixed in clads as attackers. I therefore don't really think I could hold this indefinitely, or, really, even for more than a couple of turns since I have so few caravels. But it is close enough to my cities that, if (when) things start going badly, I could retreat LoB frigate fleets to Abugida and Mitla, where together with the city defenses they should kill one frigate fleet per turn as the cities go down. It would also buy me the turn I need to get into Bastions and upgrade an ironclad fleet. And it may be fair to ask what else, exactly, my caravels are going to contribute to the cause here, with only 10t to make their mark really before Twilight Valor expires...

But who am I kidding, really - I can hold this position for 3 turns tops, and if this line breaks, my whole fleet is dead. Most of them would not be able to make it between Mitla and Abjad and would be run down. Those that did make it would be flanked by the Russians, who can make it around the passage to the north of Mitla Isle before I can get there to stop them. Then all of my cities are in danger, which is GG with no fleet left to defend them. I think I could hold them for a few turns at this line, yes, but long-term we do not have even a chance of beating back the Russian fleet like this.

The only plan with even a chance to succeed at breaking their actual fleet (which means killing their frigates) is to retreat and hope they follow, BUT ALSO hope they follow far enough back (for fear of a first strike) that they don't hit my cities this turn before I can boost their defensive strength. Therefore, I think I have to do that. What an mess, what a dumb, avoidable mess...it would have been so easy to swap to Bastions and upgrade a fleet ironclad a few turns ago

[ljubljana]

Sorry y'all (Woden, lurkers, other folks waiting on the save), I think I have to sleep on this one... I hate, hate, hate being the person serving up the 12 hour turn times, but if I spent 6 of those hours thinking about what to do during the turn, maybe it's not really that bad

[ljubljana]

Turn 171 (part 1 lol) - Phoenicia

Started the long, dark Turn 171 of the soul by looking for Australia:



I think I will move my front line down 3 tiles - in range of the privateer (which is STILL visible during peacetime by looking at itmovement shadow, unchanged from Sullla's PBEM7 experience) and some of those leading ships in the fog, but out of range of the bulk of the fleet that is presumably to the south and west of these positions. I don't want to take too many attacks, though, as I am quite badly outnumbered here (just look at his milpower!) and am only going to become more so if I attack Russia. This small but experienced fleet needs to take out all of Australia's 2k+ milpower by itself...I'm quite skeptical that this is even possible, but it definitely is not possible if I wander into a major first strike.

About attacking Russia...well, after sleeping on it, I'm thinking that unfortunately I am eventually going to have to try to hold them off with my caravels somewhere, either at this line or the one north of Mitla island in a few turns. If I do it here, at least I will buy my cities a turn to boost their defensive strengths and get reasonably efficient trades (maybe?) since Woden's ironclads will also be involved. I can be aggressive with my frigates and perhaps intentionally trade a few with a few of his, if he commits shots to this area. Then, once my caravels are dead or almost dead, I can retreat what few frigates remain to strength 80 Medieval Walls at Abugida and Abjad, which he will then lose more frigates attacking. That, I think, is the best "kill his frigates" style plan I have right now...if I can kill 2 frigates during this doomed defense, and then another 2 at each of Abjad/Abugida/Mitla as he sieges them down, then that might start to resemble progress.

[ljubljana]

Playing the turn now, planning on the DoW. I don't think we can hold them for more than 2-3 turns, but I will hold enough frigates back that they can make it past the Mitla/Abjad ZoC when the line breaks. Then I will stick a LoB fleet in every city and try to grind down the frigates, and probably also start building Pike + Shot in anticipation of at least one mainland city (Abugida most likely) falling.

[Woden]

You can be a little aggressive against Australia. You have fleets. With only 40 cpt, I doubt he has Nationalism. He may have more MP but it is made up of out of date units. Better to kill his navy before he improves it.

Edit: I would also plan on keeping your frigates out of your cities. With only ancient walls and a DS of 70+, your cities will fall in 1 or 2 turns.