[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

Yes, that bug is awful. I wasn't aware of it and what a bad moment to discover it.

Re the ironclad on the reef that almost died, did you consider using the privateer too as an additional ranged attack? You would have had to move the frigates one tile up exposing one of them to the other ironclad but it could have made the difference. (For peace of mind, in reality it wouldn't have as the ironclad ended up with a little more hp than the max damage the privateer could have done.)

The frigates were at maximum movement and still be able to fire. I didn't have the movement to add an attack by the privateer. Would have been nice but just didn't have enough to kill it and I don't think I got any favorable rolls.

Another option that might have slowed Russia down a bit longer, would have been to blockading by the small island between me and China, instead of grouping my ships into a blob. The problem there would be that it would be a thin line with little support bonuses. It would maybe have added a turn of delay since he would have needed a couple of attack turns to remove one ironclad in order to surround me. But ultimately, no matter what I did, if Russia was going to engage me, I would eventually die because he had the numbers.

[ljubljana]

I think with where we were at the start of this war in terms of numbers and the fact that our ships were effectively kept apart by Russia's central position and movement advantage, there was not much we could have done to win the fleet to fleet battle outright. We have done relatively well to inflict the number of casualties and buy the amount of time that we have, IMO...

If I could go back and replay this war (not that you asked), I think I would have built fewer caravels during the lead-up, conceding the control of the seas that I was not able to contest anyways. Instead, I would have focused on wall upgrades like Woden did, then stuck fleet frigates with LoB in every city. Of course, I also would have avoided been caught unprepared and had a fleet ironclad upgrade + Bastions ready to go as soon as williams was in range of my cities. Then, Woden and I could have massed ships to the west of our main island and waited to engage until after williams' GA ended and our GA started while williams worked on our cities. I might have lost a mainland city sooner with that approach, but with a LoB frigate fleet inside and 80+ strength Medieval Walls, I could reasonably expect to kill 2-3 frigate fleets with each city, enough to weaken williams' fleet to the point where Woden could have killed it IMO.

But my high-level strategic planning for this war was very lacking. That is an aspect of my game, in general, that I badly need to work on, and is probably my biggest overall weakness as a player as of now...

[ljubljana]

Turn 176 - Phoenicia



I came up agonizingly short of getting a kill on a Cossack corps. I think it is literally at 1/100 HP remaining, aargh . Now it will promote-heal somewhere safe and continue its rampage. But this situation is ok in the medium term, with enough pike/shots spawning in 2 turns to decisively beat back the pillagers.

I also chose to station clads in the Linear cities on the west coast to boost their DS. I do not know if I will leave them there permanently, but I want them to look like less tempting targets to Russia so that they will give me time to upgrade their walls. We should get ready to upgrade the quad in Cuneiform next turn if Russia starts sailing over there, btw - we should be able to tell if that's the case based on whether their fleet attacks one of my frontline cities or not. If Russia looks like they are going for Cuneiform, I would appreciate 16 niter and some gold, if you can spare them (maybe by canceling the frigate build at MMLP?).



Against Australia, it didn't feel optimal to engage right now with only half my fleet and my GA just out of range, so I chose to spend this turn repositioning. I am hoping to bait them into thinking they can set up a defensive line on the reef or just north of it. That would be a good position if I were not able to two-shot their caravels, but with the CS differential as large as it is, in reality they will just bleed ships without achieving anything if they go that route. If they try to go for my cities in the north instead, I can just wait for our Golden Age to trigger and then sail up with the GA to put their fleet in a terrible position. And naturally, going for your Steel-enhanced cities is the worst option of all, leaving them vulnerable to my ships while all but certain to fail at actually recapturing anything. As for Russia, I expect that little fleet to run away next turn, but if it stays and fights, I have enough frigates in range that we should be able to deal with it next turn. If it does run, though, my ships are still close enough to help out with Australia's navy, or we can start working on the south coast.

Oh, and I smashed the walls at SFFB, which only took two more frigate shots, wow. Feel free to take the city at your leisure.

edit: I have a guess as to where Russia spent their faith - on Cossack purchases in their core cities to chase down your zerks in Australia. I'd watch out for that possibility in the coming turns, to the extent that we can do anything about it.

edit2: My position south of the strait should be very difficult to break. They can hit the northern caravel with 2 frigates and 2 caravels, which shouldn't be anywhere near enough, while the Dreadnought will be able to pick off frigates from the backlines once the GA shows up (65 + 7 LoB + 4 WoR + 5 GA = overkill). I do not think Australia has too many frigates in total anyways, as the Russian numbers seem to be only possible if Australia has been feeding them niter. I do need to swap the positions of the two caravels there next turn, though, so that I can drop the one with Reinforced Hull into the more vulnerable spot.

[Woden]

I will take SFFB in 2 turns as one of those mines belongs to it. I will check to see if roland switches it to the other city on my turn. If he did, I will take it on my turn. I think we keep this city too, it is another source of niter. I can send you niter next turn because I don't think I will need it for next turn. How much gold do you need for the upgrade?

I do know he has another Cossack fleet on the southern island. My ironclad was able to sneak a look. He also has a privateer that pillaged my oranges at Balder and I will have to keep an eye out for them. I suspect he will look to pillage my shores.

I should have another 5 or 6 ironclads out in the next 3 turns. I think I am going to see where Russia moves before I decide what I am going to do next. Do I regroup in my south or in your north? My best guess is he is going to go after your cities since you are the weaker link (no urban defenses) and I will regroup in the north, just off source Linear B. But, if for whatever reason, he decides to push on my southern cities (Freya is probably my weakest spot), I am going to shift all my boats to regroup by Geneva. Regardless, I think the 2 fleet and single ironclads I have by Freya now will play zone defense to prevent Cossack crossings and privateer pillages.

[ljubljana]

Okay, keeping the city sounds good. As for when to take it, I'm fine with delaying a turn. That would also let us use the fish boat that I stupidly left my frigate on top of to heal your redlined caravel (or my 70 health frigate? not sure which is more impactful).

I am pretty confident that as far as city captures go, Russia will probably go for me next. Not sure if they will sail around to hit my west or just ram into my east coast, but I don't see why they would attack into Urban Defenses.

But I think the most impactful thing Russia will do now that our fleets are gone is not capture cities (though their frigates will surely do some of that) but sail around our coastlines with two blobs of IC and caravels and pillage all our harbors, which we can no longer do anything to prevent. I am not sure how we can win this game if they do that. We may get to battleships 10 or so turns before them, but I am not sure how much that will help us with only a handful of frigates to upgrade and few ironclads with which to protect them. Once Russia gets the tech, they will have the gold to upgrade their frigates all at once, as they are about to get 6-8k or so for free from harbor and trader pillages, well outstripping their 200 gpt deficit. Similarly, we will probably be short on gold as our cashflow is about to get shut down over the next 10-15 turns by losing our TRs. Admittedly Russia may be coal-limited, but if they are smart they will postpone IC replacements so they can power battleships when the time comes. I am also not sure what Russia is building domestically right now, but apparently it is not more ships judging by their stagnant milpower. This could be naive, but I actually suspect that in a few turns their beaker rate will start spiking as they finish universities everywhere, which would further narrow the timing window for a battleship attack.

What size of a fleet do you think you will be able to put together by the time battleships hit the scene? It will probably need to be about 2/3 the size of Russia's (I would guess) to take them on in open combat with some chance of success. I suppose it will likely be GA-powered by that point, though you may need to start saving up for a faith-purchase as your GA points will suffer badly from the pillaging to come. You will also need a safe place to gather the new fleet, maybe off the coast of Japan, as if Russia goes for pillages they will have ships at Linear B in 4 or 5 turns.

edit: If Russia does go for pillages, it would mean splitting their fleet in 3 probably - frigates for cities, north blob, and south blob. Maybe between your new fleet and my random survivor ships we would have a chance against north blob if we can catch it by itself (after the GA)? We would have to hide ships off the coast and lull them into complacency, but it could happen.

[Woden]

I can lose 3 lighthouses before I lose an existing trade route plus I have one in former England that can be repaired for an addition one if I lose 4. In addition, I only have 8 lighthouse by our mainland and (W)Odin's is already pillaged. As long as we keep him on the east side of our island, I think we should be alright if he pillages a bunch. 

I will have to take a look at how many ships I can get out. Niter will be the limiting factor but we make 14 now, so that is 7 every 10 turn and it will take about 10 turns to get to battleships. We can get a little more from repairing the one at SFFB and I can always run the card that adds an extra per source but that would mean dropping the oligarchy card and not sure if I want to do that.  I will promote Magnus to black marketeer once Civil Engineering finishes, so Thor can build them for 4 niter and we can get a few more out then. 

The big target will be Mobilization and Combined Arms (which boost is 3 armies/armadas). Depending on what is behind Natural History, I should be able to both those relative close together and hopefully before Russia. I should have oil in my desert on the southern tip, so I will have to have a builder or 2 around to quickly hook it up. Then, when I finish Combined Arms (it is behind Steel) we can have armada Destroyers with a base strength of 102. Now, Russia could go there after Refining too and he should have oil in the tundra but I think I should be able to get the boost and am ahead of him in civics and have a higher rate and get culture form pillaging and will boost Natural History, so no real way for him to beat me to Mobilization and no way he gets it by the time he needs it to boost Combined Arms . This means we can have an edge in melee units too. I figure all this will take about 20 turns, maybe less with the civic and tech discount...wait, we are still in the Renaissance Era and going into the Industrial Era, the 20% extra for researching advanced eras won't drop, so no discount. So, roughly 20 turns, this game should turn around.

[ljubljana]

How do you think we should go about keeping him on the east side of our island? I can sail a few ships down to help out depending on where he goes, but I only have 2 fleet IC, 1 fleet caravel, and 3 unmerged caravels, which will not make much of a difference. Of course, the main thing I will be doing is trying to stall him at my cities and tempt him into keeping his fleet there, but if he goes straight for our west coast, there is very little I can do to keep him from reaching there.

I share your skepticism about dropping the Oligarchy card...the other thing is that once we use the +resource card to build more ships than our resource cap allows, we will not be able to drop it or our ships will take a huge strength penalty. I am not sure another 6 or so coal ships is worth -4 CS on all your ironclads, unless there is another card that could be dropped for OL when the actual fighting starts...

Otherwise, sounds like a plan, and you will hear no more defeatism from me unless the situation changes. If we can really pull this off, I will be even more in awe of your civ skills than I already am

[Woden]

Turn 176-Vikings start
It looks like Russia killed my frigate and retreated his own...
   

If you think you can kill all his units, I think I am going to pillage the mine and turtles (heal the fleet caravel) and take SFFB. Over by our mainland, looks like Russia used this turn to reposition and stayed away from your cities for the most part, which is good for us. Five more turns of golden age juice for him.

Edit: Actually, looking at again, I am going to kill one of the quads because my caravel only has 5 MP and needs 3 to get to the turtles.

[ljubljana]

He killed your full health frigate fleet with just one caravel attack? Am I seeing that right? wow! I should have blocked him with a caravel, didn’t think there was any chance of that happening...

Still, it’s a good trade for us. One frigate for two caravels and a clad, all fleets. I will kill all his ships and probably pour the rest of my shots at Australia, who I am pleased to see has taken my bait.

[Woden]

He killed your full health frigate fleet with just one caravel attack? Am I seeing that right? wow! I should have blocked him with a caravel, didn’t think there was any chance of that happening...

Still, it’s a good trade for us. One frigate for two caravels and a clad, all fleets. I will kill all his ships and probably pour the rest of my shots at Australia, who I am pleased to see has taken my bait.

It was 67 (Fleet caravel + 2 support) versus 55 (fleet frigate), so it might have survived with bad dice rolls but it was probably my most expendable ship in the area. All the caravels and ironclad can pillage and heal in neutral territory, so are better down there. Plus, I am going to upgrade them all to ironclads next turn and he has lots to pillage in this southern sea.  

I will take SFFB this turn then. No need to let it live and surprise us with something new next turn. My redlined caravel fleet can earn a promotion taking the city, so even better!