[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

Turn 176-Vikings cont.
An ironclad finished at Woden and I had him take a look...
   

Definitely took this turn to regroup. I think Ablad and Abugida are his targets, which is good since it will hit many of our objectives for the next 5 turns. I place the 2nd fort, boosting Ballistics and I chop into the coal plant at Thor, due in 2 turns. I pillaged the mine at SFFB and take the city with my redlined fleet caravel, gaining a promotion. I kill the southern most quad and advance my berserkers towards the next city, killing a pikeman sitting on the campus...
   

Couple of things here: First, MBDF is going to be a little more difficult than SFFB. It looks like the only 2 valid frigate locations are in that little cove. Second, he has medieval walls, so my ram is useless. I could upgrade it but I think rams are better than siege towers but if it becomes an issue, I will. I probably could take the city with 2 strikes but would want to pillage it to death first. Third, notice the privateer that I shot at, one bad thing about falling back is that he can pillage the coal with that privateer and I will have to keep the berserker there to protect it. Luckily, next turn I will upgrade to corps field cannons and add 15 CS to my city attack and might be able to kill it. 

With Ballistics finished, let's see what is next...
   

Radio and Replaceable Parts. Refining and Combustion are the 2 remaining hidden techs. I decide to stick with Radio until my coal plant is done. Using the weirdness of statistics, last turn there was a 50% chance it would be on this line (2 unknown techs) and only a 25% chance it was on the either of the other lines (1 unknown tech each). Since no new information for the bottom line, it would still have a 25% chance. Therefore, there would a 75% chance it is on top. Right?  Okay, this is a pretty bad interpolation of the Monty Hall problem and complete BS but it is what I am going with. 

Other interesting note...
   

I should have a GA in 8-ish turns with the era discount. I might be able to buy them earlier if we get a bunch of pillages but would rather use faith for units and universities...but also have to be worried about Russia poaching them.

Edit: Also chopped another ironclad out of England and one down to 2 turns. Bought a builder at Japan's capital to do a little chopping on its own. Probably should save for a settler so I can found the coal city before I remove the builder card when the era ends.

Edit2: I also sent you 330 gold and 17 niter.

[Woden]

Also, I check the past screenshots and Kaiser called the World Congress. My best guess is that it an emergency against you (he already has one against me). I would dump all you diplo favor into fighting it and hope that China and Indonesia help. If you lose, you get it all back.

[ljubljana]

Turn 177 World Congress - Phoenicia

Yeah, WC against me this turn. In retrospect, I should have spent 30 favor to call it myself, which would have locked Kaiser out of calling it...

[ljubljana]

Looking back at my screenie from last turn, I must confess to another idiotic mistake...



That is one vote short of maximum! I clicked 5 or 6 times but I guess the game didn't register all of my inputs, and I was sleepy and rushed and didn't double-check. ugh wtf is wrong with me

Will this affect the overall outcome? If sub's team helps us, we have 12 votes instead of 13, with my 4 plus your 1, sub's 3, and Bruindane's 4...Kaiser has 3, williams 1, and roland has 8. That's an exact tie! Wonderful. Well, at least I will be experiencing the immediate consequences of my stupid misclick this time instead of you...

[Woden]

Will this affect the overall outcome? If sub's team helps us, we have 12 votes instead of 13, with my 4 plus your 1, sub's 3, and Bruindane's 4...Kaiser has 3, williams 1, and roland has 8. That's an exact tie! Wonderful. Well, at least I will be experiencing the immediate consequences of my stupid misclick this time instead of you...

I forgot, I can't vote since I can't declare war on you and if you have an alliance with sub and/or Bruindane, they can't vote either. So, it looks like the measure will most likely pass.

[ljubljana]

I think the Monty Hall problem only works out the way it does because the host opens a goat door that the contestant didn't pick, whereas here the techs were revealed randomly. If that logic gave a 75% chance of Refining on the top column, symmetric logic would apply equally well to Combustion to yield the same conclusion. I would consider switching to Flight, as Biplanes would actually be amazing against all these Renaissance ships, and you may want a head start on Aerodromes in case Refining is behind Flight so you can start building planes as soon as oil comes online. We will also need a few of them to find Advanced Flight, the key Atomic era tech, assuming the game goes that long.

If Russia poaches, the next GA will still be Industrial, right? I assume so, since nobody is in the Atomic Era yet, but I'm not really sure exactly how this mechanic works...

I think MBDF will not be too bad, thanks to my beautiful Dreadnought I only had two frigates firing per turn at SFFB, and still took out the Medieval Walls in 2t. Only issue is that moving my 3-range ship down here carries a big opportunity cost in terms of the number of shots I would get against the Australian fleet. Maybe I will just send down two 2-range Rolling Barrage frigates and try to kill it from just the two tiles in range...

Lol, I forgot that for some insane reason our allies are locked out of voting to help us, while our enemies have a free hand. Then the only way to block this would have been to call the resolution ourselves to pre-empt Kaiser. Very sensible game design there

[Woden]

I think the Monty Hall problem only works out the way it does because the host opens a goat door that the contestant didn't pick, whereas here the techs were revealed randomly. If that logic gave a 75% chance of Refining on the top column, symmetric logic would apply equally well to Combustion to yield the same conclusion. I would consider switching to Flight, as Biplanes would actually be amazing against all these Renaissance ships, and you may want a head start on Aerodromes in case Refining is behind Flight so you can start building planes as soon as oil comes online. We will also need a few of them to find Advanced Flight, the key Atomic era tech, assuming the game goes that long.

Yes, in the Monty Hall problem, the door that is opened is dependent on the door chosen and my example is complete BS. I am just going to stick with what I chose. If anything, oil would be reachable before any units that need it and the only way for that to happen would be for it to be on top since both subs and biplanes require oil. I don't think Firaxis put any though to such things when coming up with the randomizing techs option but it is a thought. Regardless, it doesn't matter what I research. If I picked wrong, I will still finish Flight before Refining. If I picked right, I wouldn't finish Flight before Refining. I will know in 2 turns and will make adjustments if needed.

If Russia poaches, the next GA will still be Industrial, right? I assume so, since nobody is in the Atomic Era yet, but I'm not really sure exactly how this mechanic works...

I think MBDF will not be too bad, thanks to my beautiful Dreadnought I only had two frigates firing per turn at SFFB, and still took out the Medieval Walls in 2t. Only issue is that moving my 3-range ship down here carries a big opportunity cost in terms of the number of shots I would get against the Australian fleet. Maybe I will just send down two 2-range Rolling Barrage frigates and try to kill it from just the two tiles in range...

I think it would be an Industrial GA. He is already 300+ points behind me and I am making more than him. I am a little over 300 points from the GA and it costs 3,270 faith and it would cost him that much when I get close to getting them. I don't think he would be willing to spend that much faith on a GA when he could buy 6-8 Cossacks. As for MBDF, I think you are right that your 2 best frigates can remove the walls in 2 turns and there is a fishing boast your can pillage if he attacks your ships. I also don't know if there is any other Australia city on the southern coast where your remaining frigates would be useful. I have no problem with you sending your remaining ones back, especially since I am going to upgrade my caravels next turn. Feel free you leave your caravels down in the south to pillage any of Russia's harbors. I am not running Raid so the only difference would be the tech/civic count difference and I think hurting Russia's income quicker is better than getting a few extra coins from pillages.

Lol, I forgot that for some insane reason our allies are locked out of voting to help us, while our enemies have a free hand. Then the only way to block this would have been to call the resolution ourselves to pre-empt Kaiser. Very sensible game design there

Just because you call a special session doesn't mean others can't add their own. It is why you get the notification that someone has called a special session and the session is delayed a turn from when it is called. I wouldn't be surprised if Australia called an emergency on me after Kaiser called his. Now, if nobody jump on calling another emergency, then it would lock them out until after the next World Congress but Kaiser could still have called one on you this go around.

Edit: For research, I think I will switch to Flight next turn so I put equal research into both techs until I know where Refining is located.

[ljubljana]

Wait, I'm dumb, there is a whole Modern Era between the Industrial and Atomic Eras . Which you and williams are almost finished with, so maybe if the Industrial GA is sniped, the next one will be Modern... I'm not sure exactly how this works, but obviously that Industrial GA was there before the world era progressed to Industrial, so it's not world era that determines it. Maybe it is keyed to the era that more than 50% of players are in, like the world era advancement mechanic? Most likely only 3 players (you two and China) are Atomic, so we'd be okay if that's the case, but if it's keyed to the era of the player who takes the current GA, we could be in trouble. I think the latter is a bit more likely as I'm pretty sure this Industrial GA has been next in line for a LONG time, ie, since well before I went Industrial...

[Woden]

Loaded game up, hit start button, and then saved it...end turn. Why couldn't these votes be part of a regular turn? What a waste, especially since it took 4 days for the turn to cycle through.

[ljubljana]

Turn 177 - Phoenicia

WC results:



Not particularly close, so I can feel not particularly guilty. -2 CS is significant, though, especially as it pertains to my defending frigates attacking out of my cities vs. Russia. I think at Abugida a LoB fleet + the city center strike might come up just short of killing a GA-enhanced frigate fleet  Here's hoping Russia gets greedy and uses the GA against Abjad instead...while, uh, simultaneously trying to hit Abugida with 4 or so leftover frigate fleets? Well, I can dream, I guess...

Speaking of dreaming...



Why is the game telling me I can hit these Cossacks with my Pike/Shot? Industrial roads cost 0.75 movement, and according to Civ6 movement rules I can't attack unless I have enough movement to legally occupy the tile held by the defender. Of course, wlliams' positioning is on point as always, and I can't get a kill this turn. Stupid buggy interface...



...wait, what?? 

Apparently the road in question is actually a Modern road, which gave me exactly enough movement to sneak in a hit! How did that happen? Well, observe the variegated plumage of the roads leaving Linear A - those to the capital are a gravelly grey, while those to Demotic are asphalt black. Evidently your traders, flush with proselytizing zeal for the wonders of modernity, paved over the sad, bad roads in my territory just in time to catch that Cossack. I've never seen that mechanic matter before, and I'm all but certain I never will again...

We've gotten great value on the defense here, too. Russia has poured 3600 faith worth of Cossacks into this expedition, for which they have pillaged...an aqueduct, a mine, a library, and maybe a trader (I forget). Not only is that not devastating, it's a downright poor trade for them. If only we could say the same about the naval combat...

Let us consider Australia. Firstly, what ships do I send to MBDTF? The options are two triple-promoted frigate fleets, or one such fleet and the Dreadnought. The latter could start the surgical strike on the city one turn faster, but carries a steep opportunity cost, as the Dreadnought would be an irreplaceably useful ship in the fleet vs fleet combat with Australia. Here is one data point:



No cities within 3 tiles of the south coast, which could have swayed me towards sending the 3-range ship down here. There is one city very close to Russia that I think it could range, but it will be a long, long time before we have bootstrapped enough loyalty to contemplate its capture. Therefore, I think our proto-battleship (which is as close to a battleship as I am ever going to get ) will be more useful thumbing its nose at Australian frigates, which it already has narrow odds to one-shot that will become decisive when the GA arrives.



I managed to kill the Russian ships, at the cost of quite a bit more frigate shots than I was hoping to use and a very messy deploy. If more Russian ships swoop in out of the fog, I will be in some trouble here. But if they were going to do that, last turn was the turn to do it, not now after they lost a bunch of melee ship fleets. And, really, if they want to trade another caravel fleet for one of my unmerged LoB frigates, I guess I can't really complain.

In the north, I killed Australia's frontline caravel and galley, and the Dreadnought casually took an 80-damage potshot at another caravel one tile back. I don't know what I think roland is going to do here, but they had better do it fast as the GA will arrive next turn. I think they cannot kill my frontline caravel with two frigate + two caravel attacks, and I have a few fresh ones in range to replace it if they try while eating the offending frigates.

One more thing...



Australia split their fleet! Wow, their edge in ship numbers is truly gigantic, as the milpower scores suggest. But they will not take Oasis at Dawn, as they can move only one frigate per turn past the encampment due to ZoC rules, and any frigates that try will be two-shot by the encampment and city fire. They may be able to take Anoch Sun, though...which I wholeheartedly welcome them to do, as that city is the target of the emergency and I believe taking it would forfeit their +2 CS. That is well worth losing an almost completely unproductive city site over, and if they go for it, I may even deliberately leave the walls unfinished to help them out a bit

edit: Your best chance to pillage the harbor at MBDTF is probably this next turn, assuming no other Russian ships appear. That way you can leave both tiles open on the turn following that for my two frigates; otherwise we will need to delay the attack by another turn.

edit2: I have thought of a possibly-evil plan for my Pike/Shots once the pillagers are gone...namely, station them on all the tiles of the unrazeable Cuneiform, and prepare to pillage my own improvements the second the city passes into Russian hands. That may admittedly be a bit exploitative, but it would net you a cool 1000g or so for battleship upgrades, and could be repeated at my other cities if Russia declines to raze some of them as well.