[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

Yep, will move the caravel for sure, just not sure where yet. Unfortunately, I think that caravel NW of the Russian frigate indicates that he likely scouted us last turn, or is at least being cautious enough that we will not get easy kills. His current position can only see the caravel in Runic itself, which I will keep there to not raise alarms, but he could easily have moved one tile further forward and back on his turn and spotted the rest of our ships.

I can do the corps on the hill, and indeed have no better ideas, just be aware that I am quite confident that it is guaranteed to die on his turn. If I do manage to make him retreat and come back, our position will then be even worse...it is now 6 P/S vs 6 Cossacks, but in 3 turns it will be something like 5 P/S vs 8 Cossacks... I am also pretty sure I can't merge a corps and fortify in the same turn, not 100% though.

[Woden]

I guess I am wondering if I should try one of these doomed battle plans if it will only delay them by a few turns at most, or if I should conserve my units. Or if there is some other brilliant plan you have in mind that can hold this position. Eg, maybe I could vacate the southern campus just to get a potshot from Linear A when they move onto it (I don't think they can pillage this turn), and then try to kill it on offense (though I would not get good odds and then would be very badly injured for the fight against the rest of the Cossacks).

edit: Tiny bright spot in the gloom: I did kill the triple-promoted frigate fleet at Cuneiform. They may beat us to battleships, but at least they will not have that one.

I think the best play here is to be conservative. Defend, don't attack. Place a corps in front and if you can get another on a campus, you can switch them out next turn and hopefully have enough experience to promote. You will get better odds against his attacks than you will attacking. 

Even if he pillages both campuses, it is only 3 science pillages and I think I am already a few turns ahead on him and have at least 2 mines to pillage. If we push hard on Australia over the next 4 or 5 turns, we can open up his northern coast for more mines, hit Refining and then speed up Combined Arms. 

It is always darkest before the dawn, so he may make a few gains against us before we are ready to counterstrike. The last thing we need is to rush things and hit him willy-nilly and not in mass.

[ljubljana]

Definitely agree with conservatism and defense in general, we can't afford to give up any CS points by attacking into support bonuses or hills. But switching out the hill corps is unfortunately unrealistic as the corps in front will eat 4 attacks and has zero chance of survival. If I put a corps there, it must be with the understanding that it will almost certainly die on Russia's turn.

The alternative is to pull back a tile and defend the two campuses and the plains SE of the southern campus. That should (I think?) keep all my units alive on this next interturn, but they give up 3 CS from the hill and another 2-4 CS from support bonuses. And while no units will die this turn, that is it as the SE plains corps will have no escape route and will likely die in 2 turns, at which point the southern campus becomes indefensible due to the triple-attack possibility...

[ljubljana]

Definitely agree with conservatism and defense in general, we can't afford to give up any CS points by attacking into support bonuses or hills. But switching out the hill corps is unfortunately unrealistic as it will eat 4 attacks next turn and has zero chance of survival. If I put a corps there, it must be with the understanding that it will almost certainly die on Russia's turn.

The alternative is to pull back a tile and defend the two campuses and the plains SE of the southern campus. That should (I think?) keep all my units alive on this next interturn, but they give up 3 CS from the hill and another 2-4 CS from support bonuses. And while no units will die this turn, that is it as the SE plains corps will have no escape route and will likely die in 2 turns, at which point the southern campus becomes indefensible due to the triple-attack possibility...

[ljubljana]

Turn 182 - Phoenicia

Behold, my best attempt at keeping them off the campuses:



Not very convincing, is it? The lead P/S corps is a goner but maybe it will do enough damage that the P/S behind it (which I plan to merge into corps next turn) will be able to hold. Doubtful, but maybe. I may retreat if that looks totally doomed next turn, though, no sense throwing units into the meat grinder when they can still extract a toll by attacking stray Cossacks from the safety of a city center. It is possible that at least some of the damage I do will stick, actually, as the two captured cities flip back in 2 and 3 turns, respectively. I do not know what questionable rules thing williams was considering, but I didn't notice anything weird about the save this turn, and he doesn't appear to have done much to fix the loyalty issues...

I am starting to worry about your two ironclads in the north... If williams scouts them, he can stick a clad on the crabs to the SW of the west ironclad and you will be trapped. He also looks to have enough melee ships to keep you from picking off any stray frigates anyways, and likely either scouted us already or has set up a protective screen just in case. If they are still alive next turn, I think you should probably just retreat them and join them with the rest of your fleet.

We did have one frigate-shaped bright spot this turn, as I mentioned earlier, and also one other good thing I forgot to note - williams has left Abugida alone for long enough that it can repair its wall damage I do not know if williams will sail a single frigate fleet up to stop that, but I hope so as we will have okay odds to kill it without the GA. I also moved an IC back in Linear B, as I think it is fairly likely that they will ping it next turn to keep me from finishing Medieval Walls. I sure hope they do that, as that is probably the one way for us to get exposed frigates to go after next turn.

Speaking of loyalty, by the way, Russia is suffering everywhere, not just in my core:



And Oracle Bones has belatedly realized its mistake as well. Those people have some serious grass is greener syndrome, apparently:



That is one way for me to gift a self-founded city to you .

Australia deploy:



I think this is okay. If they stay put, I can hit them. If they take the IC bait, I can hit them. And they will need to be very intentional about scouting if they want to spot me - the reef tile NE of your clad, where I expect they will put a caravel to trap you and get an extra support bonus if they go for the kill, is not close enough to see my fleet, nor is the tile 1 NE of that where they might scout before moving in for the surround. If they devote their closest caravel's whole move to scouting, they will see me, but I had to make some kind of compromise to get all my ships past the gap.

If they flee, which I think is by far the most likely outcome, I think we pursue towards their core to try to hit them before they link up with the northern fleet, which appears to be trickling back down (or at least it sure looks smaller than last turn). Not sure yet if it is best to dive into first strike range to force a battle or hang back a few more tiles again to let the stragglers catch up.

edit: Would you mind letting me know what Australia does before moving the clad? If they stay put it may be better to scout in the north for counterattackers so that it does not take up a tile that my frigates can fire from. But if they flee then pursuing them seems like an obvious call. We will have to wait and see though...

[Woden]

I think he will retreat from Cuneiform in a turn or 2 if you keep killing frigates. He may be looking to see how quick he can take it and if we are foolish enough to hit him without a critical mass of ships. Also, given the loyalty issues Russia is facing with your cities, I am expecting him to take a page out of my PBEM18 and recapture and raze them. I think that is why we see no ships at Abugida, he is preparing to kill the first city to revolt. He might also liberate the science city state (I forget what it was called). It would give him a huge boost in science. Luckily, I don't think it will revolt until after Refining completes. Might want to keep all the envoys you have stored until we see what he does there. If you can gain suzerain, he would lose the bonus. He may keep 1 city for more Cossacks but expect for him to raze your cities instead of you getting them back. If you don't know, cities will revolt at the start of HIS turn, not the start of the turn (your turn), so you may not even have a chance to see them revolt. They should have a pretty low DS but should retain the urban defenses. Not sure if it is enough to delay him a turn in recapture though.

I think you did the best you could with the campuses. He may swing his Cossack north to Cuneiform to make you chose between Cossacks and Frigates. I think the frigates will be more important.

As for whatever they were discussing, if it was a city trade, williams482 was the only teammate to play so far, so any city trade would require roland to accept on his upcoming turn. We wouldn't see any of it yet. I will let you know what I see at the start of my turn. Please note, the 2 ironclads I am bringing to the Australian front are most likely going to be merged. I half-ass worked out that I will need to merge as many ironclads as I can before we attack or I will run out of coal, even with the added coal mine in a couple of turns. I have a lot of ironclads coming out in the next 5 turns, need to start more, and some of them are not close enough to merge on the turn they come out, which will cost extra coal.

Also, send me all your niter next turn and every turn there after until I finish Refining. Even though it is only 4 next turn and 2 the following turns, I would hate to not be able to chop a Frigate out because I was short a small amount. Even with you extra 4 in 2 turns, I am going to end up a couple short to start a 2nd one at MBDF when the one current in production finishes. I will start one at the new coal city next turn and then a new fleet Frigate at Thor the following turn will leave me at 17 (with your 4) on T183. What will determine when we finish Refining is going to be lining all the frigates up to finish before we finish Refining. I think the best turns will be 185 (with a pillage) or 187 (with a pillage). Those are turns I can get Fleet Frigates out at Thor.

[ljubljana]

Ok, it looks like I made a mistake by not giving the mines at Hieratic back to Cuneiform. Somehow I was under the mistaken impression that the city would flip directly back to me because of the amount of loyalty pressure exerted on it - probably because I saw that happen in the williams/suboptimal war in PBEM18 and forgot that it was due to Eleanor's special ability. That's embarrassing

I do not know if I think he will retreat from Cuneiform. Linear B is not a much better target with only 3 tiles that it can be hit from, and he has already lost 2 frigates to the ravages of the Cuneiform city defenses. Maybe the sunk cost fallacy will keep him here for a bit longer. If he does retreat, he will run the risk of allowing me to fix my defenses and build Renaissance Walls unless he keeps sending frigates over to ping me every few turns, too.

Merging the IC on the Australia front is fine by me. I do think you may want to wait a handful of turns if possible though, since merging them next turn will waste 1t of travel time for one of the IC and we may need all the help we can get holding the line.

Already sent you my niter on this last turn in exchange for coal Will continue to do so, of course.

edit: Just to confirm, are you planning to faith-buy the GA? I increasingly think you should do so ASAP, especially since no Monumentality means no especially pressing other uses for the faith. It will be an absolute tragedy if we engage them and lose narrowly where 5 CS would have made the difference. I do hope there is another Industrial GA behind it instead of a Modern one, though, or williams' next GA will boost his destroyers while yours remain unboosted...

[Woden]

[b]Turn 182-Vikings[/s]

Here is how it looks at the beginning of the turn. Over by Australia...
   

No ships and not sure the best move here is, do I move up to see where he went or do I wait until my other ironclads reach and form a fleet. I am at 20 coal and will chop out 1 ironclad this turn and need to make a fleet to be able to keep earning coal for upgrades. But, I also can merge the 2 trailing ones and keep scouting forward. I can probably move up 4 tiles and back again and at least spot his fleet. Maybe I will do that. 

Over by your empire...
   

Russia is scouting me. I think I am going to move my ships between Linear B and the island where Akkad was located. That way I can get rid of the scouting GA and meet up with the ships sailing north. 

I am going to reject your coal for niter deal. I can't afford to send you 2 coal per turn. You have 3 coal right now, 2 will get used on your next turn. On your following turn, you will only have 1 for maintenance but will only get the -1CS for not having enough. That turn, ask for one coal. Then, I give it to you so you have it at the start of your next turn for the -1CS instead of the -20CS for having no coal. We can do that for a few turns until I upgrade all my frigates. Then I will have no coal to give for a bit. 

Finally before I play my turn, I spotted this...
   

Looks like we were right about a city transfer. I am assuming williams482 wanted to get rid of amenity needs but it hurt his yields a bit. Looks like a drop of 14 beakers of science and 9 clefs of culture. Good, slow him down even more on Refining.

[ljubljana]

Lol at Australia moving 2 governors over to fix loyalty issues at their gifted cities. I sure hope one of those was Victor or Black Marketeer Magnus...

Is there any way to hit Russia's frigates by Cuneiform? I assume they are being cautious and have a melee screen in place but worth checking the support bonuses just to be sure. If you can't hit them, I suggest retreating and combining the IC in the north with the rest of your mass of ships.

Feel free to ask for my niter straight-up and I will send it. I probably will not need to attack with my IC soon anyways.

As for Australia, I would say move the IC forward and see where they are, we need to start pushing on his cities before they gets Nationalism and especially Industrialization now that their beakers jumped from the city gift. As for the two IC behind my ships, I suggest leaving them unmerged for another few turns so that they can scout separately and so that the closer IC (the one 2SE+1SW of Fort Miln) can make it to the other side of my fleet this turn. It may be needed in the next turn or two to either plug a gap in the west or scout for flanking maneuvers from the north.

edit: Is Australia still at Anoch Sun? I assume not...if they are headed south, we have a choice to make about whether to pursue the main fleet or try to ambush those reinforcements...

edit2: As far as your IC positions in the west, I agree about retreating them to between Linear B and Akkad but you may want to stay close enough to Linear B so that you can intervene if Russia starts attacking there next turn. Not sure what they are planning in the upcoming turns, it's really weird that they just left their ships hanging around like this IMO... I guess my defenses actually spooked them a bit. Joke's on them though, I can promote my frigate in the city to Line of Battle now The math was fairly close on killing the frigate fleet last time but that should tip it in my favor.

edit3: We should see what it did to Russia's loyalty issues, but I am not sold on the strategic soundness of gifting cities to Australia. The point of this war is not really to keep Australia alive (or to keep me alive for that matter) but to impact the city differential between the two major powers, Norway and Russia. This move tipped the balance towards Norway by 3 cities, and gave you the first significant beaker lead you have held all game...to say nothing of what it will look like if we actually manage to get up there and capture those cities...

[Woden]

Lol at Australia moving 2 governors over to fix loyalty issues at their gifted cities. I sure hope one of those was Victor or Black Marketeer Magnus...

Is there any way to hit his frigates by Cuneiform? I assume they are being cautious and have a melee screen in place but worth checking the support bonuses just to be sure. If you can't hit them, I suggest retreating and combining those IC with the rest of your mass of ships.

I could kill the injured one and redline another but then would lose 2 fleet ironclads. At this point, I don't think that is a good trade. I can finish Refining in 4 turns (maybe, it will be close). I think I should save as many ironclads for meat shield as I can so I can kill as much as I can with battleships.

Feel free to ask for my niter straight-up and I will send it. I probably will not need to attack with my IC soon anyways.

If you send it I can get what you earn on your turn.

As for Australia, I would say move the IC forward and see where they are, we need to start pushing on his cities before he gets Nationalism and especially Industrial now that his beakers jumped from the city gift. As for the two IC behind my ships, I suggest leaving them unmerged for another few turns so that they can scout separately and so that the closer IC (the one 2SE+1SW of Fort Miln) can make it to the other side of my fleet this turn. It may be needed in the next turn or two to either plug a gap in the west or scout for flanking maneuvers from the north.

Problem with leaving them unmerged is that I have 2 more next turn, 1 the following, then 4 in 3 turns. My time to save coal is coming to a close. I will have another coal mine in 2 turns but I still have more ironclads in being constructed and I am going to continue building them until I hit Combined Arms and upgrade a bunch.

Bad news about Australia, he has finished Nationalism and has some fleet caravels....
   

The good news is, maybe he will feel confident in killing my ironclad now and you can get first strike on his fleet.