[SPOILERS] Chevalier Mal Fet and Marcopolothefraud lead a Soviet Down Under

[williams482]

Turn 184:

The lossless turns couldn't last forever, apparently. Woden took out the privateer who took out his niter mine outside Flower Boy, and Ljubljana (apparently with an assist from those Free City clowns out of Buyniy) took out the cossack I marched up to the sheep tile last turn. In retrospect, I probably should have tried blasting that unit with whatever frigates couldn't hit Runic. Oh well.



Whatever ships the Raiders had west of Runic and Linear B have pulled back out of reach. This probably means that they don't have very much here and I should have attacked last turn when I had the chance, but I couldn't have known (and truth be told I still don't).



Woden continues pillaging down by Olsyabya, this turn healing from past damage by taking out a fishing net. I dish out another 47 damage, which will likely be healed up by more fishing boat pillages.



While poking around other combat odds deciding what to do next, I discover two very interesting things: Woden is no longer running Oligarchic Legacy, and although Woden and Ljubljana still show as allied, they no longer have a military alliance!

The military alliance is by far the most useful of the alliances, with the scientific alliance a distant second. I suppose it's possible they intentionally opted for that one instead, but by far the more likely explanation is that the alliance briefly lapsed, and Ljubljana has a renewal offer out pending Woden's acceptance. So I should absolutely be aggressive where I can be here, and it's unfortunate that Australia was not in a position to make aggressive moves on the most recent turn.

At MBDTF, I push the cossacks up to check and discover that the builder and Berserker are gone. Most likely, they are off to fix that niter mine I pillaged last turn. I leave the two cossacks visible in positions where they should be able to make runs into inconvenient spaces if that mine goes back up. MBDTF is also at 200/400 wall HP, meaning Woden hasn't been trying to repair the walls, and 70 defensive strength isn't actually all that much. We might be able to take this city back with a concerted assault in a few turns in the unlikely event that circumstances remain favorable.



Also, there's that ironclad outside Freya. I have seven privateers and a caravel which can hit it this turn, and a bevy of spots to shoot from. Those units should be sufficient to get a kill against an unpromoted ironclad fleet with no Oligarchic Legacy or military alliance, so I'm giving it a go. Hit and sunk:



Woden's promoted ironclad which has been doing random pillaging west of Svalbard is too far away to retaliate this turn. If it comes within reach, I'll swarm it too, take it down to ~70 health, and kill it the turn after. I expect the caravel to be crippled or killed by the city strike, or perhaps a privateer will be injured, but those are certainly acceptable losses to take out this unit, and any non-fatal damage should be mostly or entirely healed by fishing boat pillages. Also worth noting: A battleship fleet with the military alliance restored and an admiral to boot is exactly as strong as the ship my wolfpack here just took out. These things are no joke in sufficient numbers.

Now, what to do with the even more potent wolfpack just a bit to the south?



Note the fresh frigate fleet in Thor (where my spy is posted) and the single frigate in the harbor. Thor has a seaport, meaning Woden is using it to chop out fleets directly. I want to ambush and kill frigates. I need three hits from single privateers to reliably kill a single frigate with the military alliance restored, four hits from singles to kill a fleet. That narrow strait between Geneva, Freyr, and Thor is a rather poor place for me to attempt to engage, the city strikes will extract a heavy toll on my ships in return. I've just shown Woden that obvious traps I set can be sprung, and that writer northwest of Geneva and solidly in view of two different traders should scan as another. So, what can I do that's most likely to encourage Woden to expose his frigates to attack? I can go on a pillaging spree around Freyer and Geneva, revealing that I do in fact have privateers around here and daring Woden to come out and fight, or I can wait out another turn and count on him underestimating my numbers and or speed, and coming out to chase off that writer or defend the souther strait we've already shot through from my already visible wolfpack.

I've admitted in past reports that I have a definite fondness for trickery. That can easily become a weakness if not carefully tempered, especially if an opponent is aware of it and looking to try to exploit my own likely attempts to exploit them. However, Woden doesn't strike me as an especially tricksy player, nor one especially inclined to psychoanalyze his opponents. He's a careful, methodical planner not inclined towards rash action. So I think he'll most likely keep his valuable future battleships somewhere safe whatever I do, but there is a chance he moves them somewhere I can hit them if he thinks they will still be safe and that's a chance worth taking.

So, here's the plan. I'm going to continue to lurk with this wolfpack for one more turn. I'm going to position them where they can attack ships that mess with my writer, or attack ships moving east through the southern strait, or pillage the hell out of Freyer and Geneva. If I get a chance to kill frigates next turn I'll jump all over it, if I don't then I'll start pillaging. I want Woden to be painfully aware that I have a lot of privateers which could be in all sorts of different places, and either he's got to try to hunt me down, or they are going to burn everything they can reach and still be hanging around ready to pounce when his all important battleships start steaming out of the harbors. So here we are:



On the ground in Phoenicia, I tag team the injured Pike and Shot with three cossack corps. I fully expect to lose the redlined unit and have no chance to actually break through to the Campuses with the other two, but my amphibious reinforcements (including another faith purchase from this turn) are coming up around and will hopefully be able to swing things. Ljubljana doesn't actually have many units here, and they will have to chose between cleaning up my injured cossacks and remaining parked atop those campuses.



At Runic, two more blasts from healthy frigates closing in on Rolling Barrage promos take out the defenses, and after a bit more pillaging (but not the harbor, oops) the city is ours:



So, what to do with it. Based on cities in range the population loyalty should be "just" -8.5, however once factoring governor, policies, garrison, happiness, grievances, and religion we should expect a combined -4.4, liable to flip in 12 turns. And for those 12 turns we'll have a patch of friendly territory to heal in, and added control over these waters. Even better, that's within our projected upgrade window. And we can pillage the harbor when it flips. What the hell, I'll keep it.

Except, what the hell? Population loyalty isn't -8.5, it's -20. Here are all the cities within 10 tiles:

- Runic (0 tiles away, duh) - 5 pop * 0.5 (ark age) = +2.5 loyalty
- Cuneiform (7 tiles) - 14 pop * 1.5 (heroic age) * 0.3 (distance) = -6.3
- Linear A (8 tiles) - 8 pop * 1.5 * 0.2 = -1.6
- Linear B (7 tiles) - 7 pop * 1.5 * 0.3 = -2.1

What am I doing wrong here? Or is this another example of this blitheringly stupid UI failing to update.

So, what do we do with our fleet, aside from being very careful not to get frigates killed? Take a few cracks at Buyniy, I guess. But keep the bulk of them close together where they can hit back in the event any units on the edges are attacked. The one frigate who can reach shoots Buyniy for a paltry 17 wall, 9 garrison. I put a caravel in range of the city as well, in the event the AI is so helpfully dumb as to shoot that unit instead of the frigate, but in any case the return damage should be manageable.

We recruited Great Scientist Dmitri Mendeleev, and China immediately after snagged the far superior James Young. The timing of that recruitment (prior to China's turn, never mind ours) means that somebody (Norway) passed on him, which was a smart call because he sucks (boost Chemistry and one random other industrial tech). As we have already boosted the only industrial era tech we haven't completely researched, Dimitri will instead join our battalion of immortal spotters on the front lines. Imperator Nikolai, this time, as I want to make a run at some of Woden's former english resources if I discover those waters are relatively clear.

Roland, I've got more privateers coming to help out, and every new build from the core will be headed that way as well. We should try to coordinate ship movements to see if we can lure them into an ambush or something, trading a manageable number of caravels for a first strike. 


If you do encounter what you believe to be a critical situation where you want to hold the turn and discuss military tactics before playing, do it. Ljubljana has done that plenty this game already and I'm sure it will happen again.

[roland of gilead]

I will hold the turn for sure if needed.

My plan i think is to move north into ocean i think forcing those ironclads out of the game.

If they go for my city i swoop down on the frigates. In open water they can't surround the frigates i can with mine.

[williams482]

Sounds like a solid plan.

Definitely check if the Raiders restored their military alliance on your turn, and be aware that Woden is close to getting an admiral.

[roland of gilead]

Will do.

[williams482]

As a counterpoint to my doom and gloom earlier about Woden's production capacity, here's the same chart with all four relevant Civ's power rankings, updated through last turn:



Russia gets a bit of a bump because we haven't been merging units, but still. We are making privateers in a real hurry, without chopping everything we can in our core, and the Raiders are likely looking nervously at those figures just as I was worrying about Woden's.

[roland of gilead]

Afraid i have screwed up here. Must have got movements really wrong and certainly misjudged their plan.



i don't think i can kill much here. Maybe an ironclad.

Can,t escape.

Not sure what to do. Lost 7 caravels.

They have far more units than i thought.

[williams482]

Okay, this is not good but we can try to make something of it. That looks to be most but not all of the Punic fleet that gathered up near Antioch Sun at the beginning, I assume the missing ~1/4th or so is the force that wrecked your other ships.

Too late now I supposed, but Ljubljana's wooden ships will move at base 5 + 2 for the GA, +1 for the admiral. Woden's ironclads are functionally the same: base 6 + 2 for the GA. I assume your ships only have five moves?

Have their restored their military alliance? That makes a big difference for the combat odds, which have to be weighed carefully here. Hell, what is the displayed strength differential for your frigates shooting at their frigates? Ideally we can roll up their formation a bit and sink a couple frigates, probably shooting over caravels which we aren't strong enough to clear out. Prioritize the ironclads next, but only if you can kill them: better a dead caravel than an injured ironclad. If your units were faster I'd tell you to ignore the ironclads completely and go full tilt after every frigate you could reach, but you have a bunch of ships that just can't get there and destroying the ships which can pillage mines for science could make a real difference in slowing their timeline towards Battleships.

Accept that your units will all die. So will the privateers I have in the area. Their job is to make sure that the Raiders are damaged enough that they can't easily do to you and me what I was able to do to Phoenicia.

Let's get that information, and make a battle plan for how we can hurt them as much as possible here.

[williams482]

For the two frigates and the caravel to the north, their target is going to be that isolated double promoted frigate. We are 100% going to want to shoot that with the frigate that can reach, attack with the caravel, and clean up with my privateers (unless you have more units out of view which can hit that unit).

For ships that can't attack, like the northernmost of the two frigates, your best bet is to position them somewhere they can strike back next turn against ships that clean up this turn's attackers, ideally without being somewhere they might get spotted and attacked themselves. Having our ships massed together here would be much better than having them spread out, but given that we are spread out let's try to make something of that by extending the cleanup phase and giving ourselves as many chances to ambush spread out ships as possible. The waves of privateers I have incoming should also help out in that regard as well, too bad this confrontation couldn't have been delayed a couple more turns, or I think we could have done some major retaliatory damage to those Punic frigates.

[williams482]

Oh, and take a peek at my two wolfpacks south of Raiderland while you've got the game up. I'm curious what went down there.

[roland of gilead]

They have the MA back.

Running numbers i can kill the Ironclad fleet with 6 attacks or so.

I will get the frigate difference for you a bit later.

This was always going to happen but i could have had 15 more ships here.

I wasn't allowing GA movement.

Think there must be 2 or 3 more Frigates in the fog from my last 2 turns. I injured a frigate last turn.

i can hit the northernmost frigate with a frigate and caravel. won't sink it but you may be able to with privateers.