[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

Next up, Russia will re-mass almost immediately with 20 privateers and get a guaranteed first strike because I won't be able to see them coming. They gained another 200 milpower last turn = 4 more privateers, so it will take all of 5 turns to completely replace Australia's losses here. On the bright side, at least this game will almost certainly be decided by your clash with Russia off our west coast, from which I have just maybe diverted some of their nearly infinite forces...

A couple of things to make you feel better. I produced 440 MP last turn (5 ironclads and 2 frigates). Now, I can't keep that but there are other factors to think about and why building masses of privateers is not the smartest play. Against lone ships, swarms of privateers can sneak up and take out lone ships, even if you need 6 attacks to do it. But fighting a mass of ships, you can take out 1 or 2 ships per turn but then lose 6-8 ships because your privateers get 1-shot. Now, think about the war wariness that will generate. We already know he is hurting for happiness. If his plan is going to be to continue mass producing privateers and throwing them with disregard against much more powerful ship, yes, he will kill some but at a cost much greater in ships lost and suffering cities. If he is already at -4 happiness, he only needs one more negative happiness until -30% yields and rebels start showing up. Now, there is one caveat, cities can only have as much war wariness as luxuries needed to be at neutral, so a size 7 city can only have -4 war wariness but larger cities can have more and it will spread through his empire.

[ljubljana]

The war weariness! Oh my god, I forgot - they have honestly not lost too many ships so far (maybe 10-15 total? plus 6ish cossacks?) and are already at least at -3. They have a long way left to fall too as they take roughly 1 WWP per 2 deaths abroad in the Industrial Era. Okay, that does make me feel better

I guess we are a bit short of consistently one-shotting with battleships, with 51 defensive strength vs 70 + 4 (WoR) + 5 (alliance) = 79 strength for you. But 5 strength from the GA will make a huge difference and get you a solid 8/12 or 9/12 chance to one-shot. Luckily, privateers do not benefit from an Industrial GA, and he has them on the wrong side of our island to benefit from Magellan

[ljubljana]

well...for me the answer is because I don’t really have any industrial ships

Nor do I have any plans to get them - Woden is strictly coal limited rn, and is going to have more coal ships than coal supply going into the fight with Russia. Admittedly I probably would not immediately retire the GA if I did recruit one, as it could be useful if Woden loses a ton of ships but we still have gold income... but, well, the circumstances in which I will really need a GA are probably ones in which we have lost the game already, tbh. Still should have taken one just in case though...which is the realization that made me start kicking myself for likely throwing one away... if Woden and williams crash their navies into each other and trade equally, then yes I will REALLY regret not having a GA to back up the 6 caravels that I would then be able to upgrade...

[Woden]

well...for me the answer is because I don’t really have any industrial ships

Nor do I have any plans to get them - Woden is strictly coal limited rn, and is going to have more coal ships than coal supply going into the fight with Russia. 

This is the wrong thinking. You should be planning on ironclads. I don't need your coal. With the mines on Australia's northern coast, I will finish Combined Arms a few turns after you finish Industrialism and will upgrade a bunch of ironclads, removing their coal maintenance costs. I should have sufficient coal resources, even without the +1 card and I am bound to lose a few ships battling Russia. I will probably build a few more frigates once I hit 0 coal but I might not upgrade them until I can form a Armada for the extra city attack strength. 

I could speed CA up if I slot Total War but not sure if it is worth it. I will need a couple of turns to chase down his privateer fleet and the extra gold for it would pay for another policy swap. There are 4 mine I can see, so it would be 2 extra mines worth of science or about 180 beakers. Probably not worth it right now, as that is only 1 turn of research. If it was a few more, might be. I will have to take a look. It would have to be what I can reach in 3 or 4 turns, about the timeline for hitting his northern fleet.

[ljubljana]

...yeah, it is the wrong thinking. We probably will be gold-limited for a while after you start upgrading to destroyers (probably more urgent to go IC-destroyer than caravel-IC) but eventually we should have the gold for my IC upgrades. With an Industrial GA, my fleet ICs would actually be competitive with Russia's, but noooo, I just HAD to get cute and go for Nelson...

Yeah, sorry I couldn't ask before you finished the turn

In all honesty, I don't think there's any amount of suggestive hints that would have made me notice I was handing the GA to China, even if that was allowed . I was way too tunnel-vision-ed on the Australia battle, and, tbh, I haven't really thought about them much for the last six months because they've been so far behind (sorry when you read this, roland and Bruindane). One thing that might have made me notice is if I were still updating my spreadsheet, but I dropped that around t100...

At least the battle fully avenged the one at Wodin and can be included in a civ6 combat textbook if someone writes one

Kind words, but CS differential + the movement bonus from Hic Sunt Dracones + GA pulled most of the weight for sure. If there were a spy in my territory or if they had gone for Wars of Religion before Nationalism, those 37s would all have been 34s, and without the HSD movement, there would be no reusing ships for flanking bonuses on multiple attacks. It would not have taken much to shift the balance here, at least to something other than chaining a bunch of one-shots. Something like, idk, missing 5 CS from a GA...

[Woden]

...yeah, it is the wrong thinking. We probably will be gold-limited for a while after you start upgrading to destroyers (probably more urgent to go IC-destroyer than caravel-IC) but eventually we should have the gold for my IC upgrades. With an Industrial GA, my fleet ICs would actually be competitive with Russia's, but noooo, I just HAD to get cute and go for Nelson...

Yeah, sorry I couldn't ask before you finished the turn

In all honesty, I don't think there's any amount of suggestive hints that would have made me notice I was handing the GA to China, even if that was allowed . I was way too tunnel-vision-ed on the Australia battle, and, tbh, I haven't really thought about them much for the last six months because they've been so far behind (sorry when you read this, roland and Bruindane). One thing that might have made me notice is if I were still updating my spreadsheet, but I dropped that around t100...

China wouldn't have had the option of getting the next GA if you didn't pass because the cost would still be 420, not discounted because you passed. It is going to depend on who the game thinks is the next person to have the option of getting the next GA. If it is China because he plays before Russia, then Russia still gets Nelson. If it is Russia, you will get Nelson, not only because you play before China but also because the price should be back to 420.

Edit: And I think it is Russia because without the discount, China didn't have enough points. Therefore, you should get Nelson unless Russia passes on this GA

At least the battle fully avenged the one at Wodin and can be included in a civ6 combat textbook if someone writes one

Kind words, but CS differential + the movement bonus from Hic Sunt Dracones + GA pulled most of the weight for sure. If there were a spy in my territory or if they had gone for Wars of Religion before Nationalism, those 37s would all have been 34s, and without the HSD movement, there would be no reusing ships for flanking bonuses on multiple attacks. It would not have taken much to shift the balance here, at least to something other than chaining a bunch of one-shots. Something like, idk, missing 5 CS from a GA...

Don't sell yourself short, that was brilliant. I don't think I could have killed as many ships as you did. Great tactics! Also, there is a huge emotional factor to this game and I am sure roland was devastated when he opened his turn. He did play before posting anything in their thread, which is good for us if they are not communicating on next moves.

[ljubljana]

Well, at least we are going to learn a little more about Great People mechanics from this fiasco Perhaps there is also a chance that Russia actually will pass on Nelson to try to go for a Modern GA, which they are fairly close to and which would give their destroyers an edge vs you.

Yeah, I did notice little coordination and a lot of foot-dragging this turn. Don't know what that signifies, but hopefully some amount of demoralization. Poor roland, their first PBEM experience was being conquered by Russia as China, then switching to Russia's team where it now looks like the same thing might happen...

[ljubljana]

Sunk-cost fallacy is a powerful thing

Plus this is almost certainly the greatest game I'll ever play in (in terms of length, scale, competitiveness, and sweeping scope generally), so there's that. The map design and setup really worked out well in that respect

edit: and we are just 9 pages from catching sub/Bruindane in post count - two weeks ago it was 20 pages, so watch this space

[Woden]

I think the urge to see if we can overcome a powerful Russia is keeping me going. Other than that, I don't feel we should concede, since we are the only Team with the original players. I guess Kaiser has been playing since the start but he was originally a replacement.

I have given up on trying to bug people, it seems to do no good and really sucks when you see the last few posts in the tech thread are you bugging people to play. That is almost as discouraging. I will say, williams482 and Bruindane never intended to sign up for these games, so I feel they should get a little leeway. I am a little pissed at suboptimal. He used to play right after work and be predictable but for the last 30 or so turns, it seems hit or miss if he plays at all when the save gets to him. I would even put money on him not playing tonight.

I guess we need to do as much damage to Russia and Australia in the next 5 or so turns that they give up. Otherwise, this game is going to nukes and will probably take another year to play. At least Japan should be out of the game in about 10 turns.

[ljubljana]

Yeah, I do wonder if they might be close to giving up, or more accurately, what it would take to get them there. It is a weird situation as I would rate them as still the slight favorites in this position due to their milpower lead and naval positioning, though it is closer than it has been all game. But it probably does not feel like it to them after the last 5 turns, which have seen their gains in Phoenicia slip away, a defeat in Australia, and now you will beat them to battleships by at least 5t and to destroyers by even more than that.

I do not know how much damage we can do in the next 5t though. We likely have only 1-2 turns before Australia gets ironclads, plus they have caravel fleets (soon to be IC fleets) and Renaissance Walls in their exposed cities, so I think the days of trivial city captures from them are over now. I am actually debating going for Rodeo next as its defense strength is still in the 50s, even though that risks running headlong into a Russian privateer wave.

I think it will come down to your upcoming clash with Russia. If you can beat them back, we will be leading for the first time all game and they may concede. If they retreat then the game will go long, though that favors us as you should beat them to bombers and then nukes by a good margin (and really we might be able to kill them with just bombers which can't be stopped by mere ships). And if they kill your navy then we are probably dead for real this time as they will pillage you into the ground and cut off your financial ability to re-mass. Luckily we do have the movement points needed to retreat if that seems likely, assuming we can escape the privateer screen.