[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

If Russia lets me mass my ships, I will have 4 caravels, 2 IC, and 2 frigates by the time you engage, a non-negligible force. That will not make much of a difference, but it will make a small one, whereas it will take forever to reallocate to Australia. These ships will certainly inflict much more damage under the aegis of my GAs and vs. privateers on the Australian front than here vs. Russia's front line. But that will not matter if Russia kills your fleet, and as meat shields they might protect your battleships for an extra turn. Let me know what you think, and next turn I will commit to a position for them.

Yes, they can be helpful in the coming battle. They can support the northern flank once we get pass Runic and prevent Russia from going around my frontlines to get at my battleships. They may not be much in power but if you move with me and cover my northern flank, they will at least minimize any ships trying to out flank me or come down from the tundra. I am not sure if willaims482 is the type of player that would hide boats in the tundra but it won't hurt to plan for it.  I will have my privateer scouting out the north but not sure how long he is going to live as he is a pretty squishy target.

[ljubljana]

In addition to that, perhaps the best use for the caravels in particular is as forward scouts. It would be a shame to have to scout with one of your fleet IC and then give williams an actually useful target to kill. With a few caravels, I can scout one turn's move ahead of your main fleet such that williams will eat a first strike if they choose to pick off my ships. I think next turn while your IC join up with the battleships, I will advance my caravels into neutral territory to fulfill this role.

I do wonder if they are actually going to fight us though, it looks like they are retreating at close to full speed. I am a bit surprised by this, as we can't easily dislodge them without risking a first strike, and they may be able to beat us back in a straight fight once they get battleships thanks to their promotion advantage. But maybe they are so coal-limited that they are not planning to field many battleships until oil comes online, and are waiting until they can upgrade destroyers and BS en masse as soon as they hit Combined Arms.

How much oil did you say Russia has, one source? They are going to be pretty disappointed if that is their plan...

[Woden]

How much oil did you say Russia has, one source? They are going to be pretty disappointed if that is their plan...

I can see 1 land source and 1 water source (lake) in their lands but there is also a significant chunk of the southern tundra we haven't defogged. I would assume there is at least 1 source somewhere in the tundra fog.

[ljubljana]

Right, I forgot that water oil is not usable until Plastics, which hopefully is some distance away (assuming you haven't seen it in the tree). So that means that unless there is a source in the tundra, you will have 4 sources to their 1 when you both hit destroyers, and they will hopefully just get 3 pairs of immediate destroyer and battleship upgrades on that turn. Meanwhile, you will have had a few turns to upgrade as many as 12 destroyer fleets when they do not have the tech yet, and if we have extra cash I can upgrade caravels to IC. So there is no guarantee they will be able to match us in modern units even with all their cash reserves, unless they are willing to take a big strength penalty.

I guess actually conquering the other teams does have its benefits, huh?

edit: Well, on second thought, perhaps they will just take the penalty. If they upgrade 8 IC with 3 oil sources, they will have 8 destroyers at -5 CS, and then can get 8 more battleships/IC too. That is actually a good idea given that it will free up coal for other ships to use and the penalty will only apply to a few destroyers (who will still be 5 CS stronger than IC, 10 when the Modern GA spawns). Perhaps that is why they are saving way more gold than they seem to actually need for upgrades.

[Woden]

I have seen it, its boost is an oil well. It is after Chemistry, so he will need Replaceable Parts and Chemistry and I don't believe he has either. He could easily boost for Replaceable Parts (3 musketmen) and should have the boost for Chemistry and will get the boost to Plastics. That being said, it will take him 18 turns of research to get those 3 done after Refining.

As for him getting destroyers, I think it is more likely he will upgrade subs. With only 1 source, I don't think we will see wolf packs roaming the seas but if he plans on building them instead of upgrading the ones he has now, he can probably put build more than 3 as he collects oil while the first 3 are being built. But once those 3 come out, he won't be able to build more. If he upgrades instead, he will only get 3 unless he stops all privateer production but those 3 will likely be fleets.

[ljubljana]

Ooh, I sure hope they upgrade subs. Of course, that will be messy for me as they can probably unseat our Australia force. But 3 subs (or maybe it will be more like 8 if they dive into the penalty) is not the end of the world, as they are slow and in the worst-case we can outrun them easily. It also would not free up coal for upgrading more IC and battleships. I think we can handle 3 85 strength sub fleets, they will be unpromoted and will still struggle to crack your Embolon + Reinforced Hull IC screen (97 defense vs subs). A bunch of promoted destroyers that are supplemented by more promoted BS and IC as the coal comes online would be much more of a threat IMO.

[Woden]

Another thing, once we hit destroyers, his hiding ability becomes much less useful since they can see naval raiders. No more sailing in to the open ocean, randomly coming across 1 or 2.

It is looking more and more that this game is going to come down to resources and we were much more efficient at conquering our neighbors and getting all their resources.

Edit: And destroyers have a sight of 3, not the normal 2.

[ljubljana]

If they retreat, then yeah, that's probably how the game will go. The uranium distribution will be interesting to see as well, as nuke production is fairly uranium-intensive and there does not tend to be much of it on naturally-generated maps IIRC.

That plays somewhat to our advantage as the side with less production but more land, though, so I am still kind of expecting williams to try to force a decisive battle. Maybe when they hit Combined Arms they will faith-buy a Modern GA, upgrade the whole northern fleet to destroyers/battleships/a few ICs, and go for it. That is probably the best window they are ever going to get to do so, they would have good odds to beat you and would win the game if they did.

Another way it could go: aircraft are very strong in their own right in this game and require less of a startup cost than nukes. If one side builds biplanes and gets lucky with the location of Advanced Flight tech, they may get a window to win the game by killing ships with bombers while the other side is sitting around waiting on nukes. I do not know if williams will spend their oil on the required 2 biplanes, however, and it would require some luck to pay off before you can get nukes given the tech shuffle.

edit: Here is an interesting and half-serious prediction - maybe this will be the first game in which a nuke is used NOT on a city, but to take out a 7-tile area of enemy ships...

edit2: Are we absolutely sure we don't need any techs besides Nuclear Fission + Combined Arms + Rocketry to launch nukes from a missile silo? I kind of thought that ability came significantly later in the tech tree than bombers...but I haven't played this late in the game more than once or twice, and perhaps that is true without tech shuffle turned on...

[Woden]

The big issue with them waiting for destroyers is that they can't hook up any oil otherwise they have to shut down privateer production. If they build subs, no oil for destroyers. If they wait to connect oil (I didn't see any under districts), they won't know where Plastics is located and it is on a path that is not as useful as the rest, so once they do hook it up, it will take longer to get the water sources hooked up. It will also take him a bit to work through Combined Arms. I doubt he can get the boost. He's like 3 or more civics behind me and I still haven't researched it yet and I have had 50% more culture than him for a long time.

I also doubt he will retreat all the way back to his homeland and I think he will hold out around Asahi and go for a last stand battle, hoping to finish Refining before I can reach his fleet. If we can sink his navy, I am pretty sure it will be game over, especially if he doesn't have any land oil in the tundra. I don't really see this game going for more than 10-15 turns but I could be wrong.

As for aircraft, biplanes cost oil and kind of suck against battleships (80 vs 90) or destroyers (80 vs 90). It is worse for fleets and armadas (I think). Bombers are better but battleships and destroyers can hold there own against aircraft.

Edit: Battleships can actually prevent nukes for being dropped if they do 50% health damage to the aircraft.

[Woden]

Bomber are really good at taking out Urban Defenses but he won't have the range unless he builds carriers. He might be able to hit my southern cities from the island south of Hod but only a few.