December 20th, 2021, 01:27
(This post was last modified: December 20th, 2021, 01:28 by ljubljana.)
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Yeah, you will probably beat them to Combined Arms by 7-8 turns, and they would probably be pushed away from Asahi if they waited for it. But they can probably at least reach Refining before you can engage. I wonder what they will do then? It doesn't seem like they have the coal income for too many upgrades - perhaps they retake Hieratic for a few turns and use that source to upgrade extra BS? But spending time sieging that city down before Refining comes in potentially invites a first strike...
Let's say there is a worst-case outcome and they get Refining with 8 BS fleets from Hieratic, adding the bonus coal card, and maybe dipping slightly into the penalty. Do you think we engage then? They may still outnumber you in total ships up there (though some of the ships will still be caravels) and will have a big edge in the ship-ship matchups since every IC has Embolon and every BS has LoB. I kind of think we may want to wait for destroyers and for their coal to (hopefully) run out if they go for something like that. You will probably hit destroyers in particular only 3 or so turns after they get Refining.
As for the length of the game, I sure hope it doesn't go longer than 15 more turns 
December 20th, 2021, 01:28
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(December 20th, 2021, 00:55)ljubljana Wrote: edit: Here is an interesting and half-serious prediction - maybe this will be the first game in which a nuke is used NOT on a city, but to take out a 7-tile area of enemy ships...
edit2: Are we absolutely sure we don't need any techs besides Nuclear Fission + Combined Arms + Rocketry to launch nukes from a missile silo? I kind of thought that ability came significantly later in the tech tree than bombers...but I haven't played this late in the game more than once or twice, and perhaps that is true without tech shuffle turned on...
I wanted to do that in PBEM18 but I killed suboptimal's navy before I could and I might have even tried but it failed to drop because my bomber was too injured.
As for techs, we are in tech shuffle so techs that seem far in a normal game, are close here. We have techs that are early modern era followed by techs in the late atomic era. All we need is to build the Manhattan Project, collect some uranium, finish Rocketry, and get some MEs to place silos. They will launch nukes, so no need for thermo-nukes.
December 20th, 2021, 01:33
(This post was last modified: December 20th, 2021, 01:33 by ljubljana.)
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We should probably try to find some way to pillage the Buyniy coal before Russia can recapture the city. Could be worth trying to sneak your privateer over there, and I may make one next in Cuneiform for the same purpose. Wow, am I ever kicking myself for letting that tile fall into their hands  That earns a spot on the top 10 mistakes list for sure...
December 20th, 2021, 01:34
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(December 20th, 2021, 01:27)ljubljana Wrote: Yeah, you will probably beat them to Combined Arms by 7-8 turns, and they would probably be pushed away from Asahi if they waited for it. But they can probably at least reach Refining before you can engage. I wonder what they will do then? It doesn't seem like they have the coal income for too many upgrades - perhaps they retake Hieratic for a few turns and use that source to upgrade extra BS? But spending time sieging that city down before Refining comes in potentially invites a first strike...
Let's say there is a worst-case outcome and they get Refining with 8 BS fleets from Hieratic, adding the bonus coal card, and maybe dipping slightly into the penalty. Do you think we engage then? They may still outnumber you in total ships up there (though some of the ships will still be caravels) and will have a big edge in the ship-ship matchups since every IC has Embolon and every BS has LoB. I kind of think we may want to wait for destroyers and for their coal to (hopefully) run out if they go for something like that. You will probably hit destroyers in particular only 3 or so turns after they get Refining.
If we can prevent him from pillaging any campus/IZ in the next 4 turns, I should reach him on the turn he upgrades and get first strike. I I think he only has 6 frigates left or at least that is the most I have seen since the last time you killed one.
December 20th, 2021, 01:41
(This post was last modified: December 20th, 2021, 01:42 by ljubljana.)
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If that happens and you can mostly wipe out the BS, you should be golden. I do not see them breaking through the campuses with another wave of P/S coming, but it could happen as they seem to still be funneling faith into buying Cossacks in this area. Probably another big group will land in 2-3t or so, but I will have a few more P/S by then.
In addition to the repaired campus pillage they got at Buyniy, they did also get the IZ at Cuneiform recently as well, which there was zero hope of preventing as it is coastal. Not sure if it was just before they got Radio or just after it, but it was in that range. They may also get lucky and have Buyniy repair its library a second time. We should probably prepare for the possibility of them beating that estimate by 1t, unfortunate though it would be for that to happen on the back of them pillaging a CS-repaired district...
December 20th, 2021, 11:34
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BTW, it doesn't matter that much (read: at all), but what civics do you think I should be researching? I started Scorched Earth a few turns ago, finished Opera and Ballet, and have Urbanization on 1t. I forget what I need to do to beeline extremely slowly for Mobilization.
December 20th, 2021, 15:52
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If I get infected it could really mess with the turnpace, though...
Serious answer: I'm not too worried about myself, although I do have some pre-existing respiratory conditions that make me a bit warier than the average person probably should be. But my family is getting older and I am still planning to visit them for the holidays, so that is the main impetus for taking all reasonable precautions for the next few weeks. If I had a crystal ball and could predict Omicron's growth curve here in advance, I would have cancelled this trip, but you live and you learn, I guess... Thankfully there is still a week between when I get back and when I plan to travel again, which should be enough time to get tested before possibly passing on anything.
December 20th, 2021, 17:56
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And you'd get +4 faith on Renaissance walls, so there's that 
That's a pretty glowing endorsement! And a timely reminder to, uh, get started on my long-procrastinated US passport renewal application...
December 20th, 2021, 18:55
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(December 20th, 2021, 11:34)ljubljana Wrote: BTW, it doesn't matter that much (read: at all), but what civics do you think I should be researching? I started Scorched Earth a few turns ago, finished Opera and Ballet, and have Urbanization on 1t. I forget what I need to do to beeline extremely slowly for Mobilization.
You will want to go through Natural History and then Suffrage to get to Mobilization. I figure it best to head towards Suffrage to unlock a better government and head towards Mobilization. Alternatively, you could go through Ideology (after Colonialism) for the combined adjacency cards (IZs and Campus, Harbors and CHs) but that doesn't help get to Mobilization. There is not boost for Ideology, so it won't help me but if you could get there in any reasonable time, it would uncover what the 2 unknown civics in the Modern Era.
I think for me, if Fascism is the unknown after Suffrage, I will research that next. If not, I will probably research Conservation next to see what is after it before I go for Ideology. You probably don't have Colonialism done, so you would need to research at least 2 civics at a little better than a 1/4th my rate. I would probably be able to finish Suffrage, Conservation, and most likely Mobilization and then hit Ideology before you can finish it. So, I don't think that path is best for you unless you can make good use of the advanced adjacency cards. Go for Natural History->Suffrage route. It will probably help you the most. I think for that you will need Urbanization and Scorched Earth before Natural History.
December 21st, 2021, 18:09
(This post was last modified: December 21st, 2021, 18:20 by Woden.)
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Turn 189-Vikings start
Quite turn. Brussels is no more, now a Chinese city. Russia continues to pull back, out of sight...
He did kill my privateer with the caravel. Not sure if this was running into it as he looked to get out of my way or if he is planning action around Runic. I do need to be a little aggressive and risk that he doesn't have a large force NW of Runic, otherwise I won't be able to catch him before/when he upgrades. I will try not to get too exposed but I do need to push forward more than I would if we weren't under the gun. I am planning on pushing up to the crabs off the coast of Linear B. Luckily, with the GA by my stragglers, they will catch up in a few turns. I think next turn, I will need to be a little more careful with my push around your empire.
Over by Australia...
No trap, as I see no additional Russian privateers. Also, Russia moved his Cossack crops off into the fog and I can repair the coal with a couple of guards. That will eliminate my low coal penalty. I am going to pillage a mine at Illmatic this turn. They did leave both the mine and pasture open.
Edit: Also, I am going to shoot at Runic as I pass to farm it for experience. Get my ships closer to their 1st promotion.
Edit2: Interesting finding, I am 3 coal short but only getting -1 penalty.
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