[SPOILERS] Chevalier Mal Fet and Marcopolothefraud lead a Soviet Down Under

[roland of gilead]

I don't see any way they could pillage that themselves, so I hope they aren't waiting to try. It's a tile inland and we have clear ground superiority with my cossacks running around there.

True then i think they are on to your intentions unfortunately.

[roland of gilead]

moment of truth is here i will play in the next hr i have the turn

[roland of gilead]

they bombed the city to zero but have not taken it

[williams482]

Damn. I'll bet they're waiting for Woden to take it on his turn. Most likely without the privateer harassment, they would have continued business as usual last turn and taken it this turn.

Did you see how far they pushed up the Phoenician coast, or if they killed my privateer near Geneva?

[roland of gilead]

Damn. I'll bet they're waiting for Woden to take it on his turn. Most likely without the privateer harassment, they would have continued business as usual last turn and taken it this turn.

Did you see how far they pushed up the Phoenician coast, or if they killed my privateer near Geneva?

Can't see where they are but they must be close it's all fog to your west up there. 

Woden has an ironclad outside my cap i think he is pillaging away there. 

i moved off the campus anyway.

[williams482]

Turn 190:

Civil Engineering completes:



That reveals the final Industrial civic to be Natural History, as we knew it had to be. We have also officially won the Adios Hermanos emergency:



As a direct result of that emergency ending, Adios Hermanos is now due to flip in seven turns, even faster than expected. Making peace with Team Sandbox was and will remain an absolutely terrible move, there's really no way we can possibly keep that all important coal resource. At least we'll be able to pillage a bunch of stuff, including a campus+library.

As expected, Woden did sink the caravel which stumbled into and took out that privateer last turn, blasting it out of the water with a battleship. My privateer remains alive and well, but his path towards pillaging that industrial zone is blocked:



There's an ironclad on the other side of the industrial zone too, not that I could have pillaged from that tile with the movement I have left anyway. Clearly Woden anticipated that I could/would try something like this, and is ready for it. Still, this isn't all bad: Woden has committed two ironclad fleets and one single (and thus, two coal per turn) to defending these tiles. He's also got a gang of ironclads that were pillaging around Olsyabya just a couple turns ago thus and cannot be part of the force attacking my fleet. That makes it quite a bit less likely that he actually has enough ships on hand to win a pitched battle if I have tech parity, and tempts the question why he is pressing me at all. Consistent with those conclusions, this is certainly not a maximally aggressive advance or an offense-oriented formation:



Our military alliance has expired, and Roland wisely re-offers it. Obviously I accept, and counter by offering Roland all my diplomatic favor to stop it being eaten away.

New policy card:



Press Gangs is out for this turn and this turn only, in preparation for future upgrades. I considered pulling Wars of Religion for Drill Manuals, also for just one turn, but felt the lost combat strength too risky. Certainly reducing privateer movement for a turn wouldn't have been wise either. In anticipation of oil being discovered under a district next turn all cities swap off of building privateers and start on whatever projects they have available, science > gold > faith. I hate doing that, but I don't think I have much choice. Automatic upgrades in queue would really hurt us right now. At least the projects let us get some meager return on our production this turn.

Woden has another ironclad just kinda chillin at Diomede:



If there are others in support, they aren't adjacent or terribly numerous, because I have a privateer between Balder and Heimdal right now and it has seen nothing at all for more Norwegian ships. I do expect there is at least one more ironclad fleet here though, because I saw two outside of (W)Odin a couple turns ago. 

I believe this advance to be some kind of deception. Woden has an admiral he's not moving with the battlegroup I can see, and I only have confirmation of the existence of three battleship units. Said battlegroup is almost certainly not strong enough to beat mine if I get battleships, and seems more a tossup than a lock to win even if I don't: I have plenty of experienced ironclads to tank hits and swarm in. This seems silly, and Woden is no fool. What's really going on here?

I don't think this is the setup for some kind of pincer attack, the ships Woden could have stashed in the east would not be numerous enough not to risk the same fate as his last Diomede force or I would have spotted them. Where else would be a valuable place to attack, where I don't have any real eyes right now?

Well, I guess I should really try to figure out what Woden actually has available, what units I know about and how much milpower is hidden in places I haven't seen. Here's a rough order of battle for units I am generally aware of:

Ground troops:
- 3x field cannon corps (70)
- 1x cuirassier (64)
- 1x pike and shot corp (65)
- 2x berserker corp (58)

Olsyabya pillagers:
- 4x ironclad fleet (80)

Australia invasion force:
- 1x ironclad fleet (80)

Diomede perimeter:
- 2x ironclad fleet (80)

Western Norway pillage defense:
- 2x ironclad fleet (80)
- 1x ironclad (70)

Western Phoenicia counterattack battlegroup:
- 1x battleship fleet (80)
- 2x battleship (70)
- 2x ironclad fleet (80)

Other western ships (likely roving defenders or back lines of previous group) :
- 3x ironclad ???, probably fleets (80)

Fully healthy, those units add up to 1,865 milpower, leaving roughly 1000 unaccounted for. I expect there are at least a handful of ground units which are not yet known to me, I'm sure I'm counting multiple ironclads across multiple units as just one in a few places, and I also have reason to believe that Woden upgraded more than just three total battleships. The most likely place for those ships to have been built, staged, and upgraded would likely be occupied Japan, England, and Australia.

Oh, but I can narrow this down further! I know how many coal resources Woden has (7, not counting the source at Marshall Mathers which was just reconnected). I know that they are running a -1 deficit with a stockpile of zero because their coal units have a -1 strength malus, and I know they have one coal plant which is presumably eating exactly one coal. All that says they have 21 (!!!) coal units in the field right now, and I've made note of 18 of them. That is interesting, and says that what I've seen really is a sizable majority of their most dangerous ships, with most of the remaining 1000 points likely covered by ground troops and obsolete vessels (like the privateers and caravels which make up such a large portion of my fleet). What I see is, more or less, what I get.

So, feeling slightly more secure in that conclusion, the frigates recapture capture Buyniy (it will again flip in three turns, so we'll get two turns of coal mine access, just barely enough for a second turn of battleships without resource penalties), help the cossacks clean up a field cannon, and take potshots at Izumrud, while the melee ships form up just outside of Woden's maximum reach:



Strategically, Woden's best play is certainly to wait a couple turns for Destroyers before engaging me. Tactically, if he does want to fight now I'm not sure what the right play would be. There's a case to be made for an aggressive push forward: My ranged ships are out of position and will have to be upgraded next turn (although Woden shouldn't know that). I would kill some ships, then he would kill more ships, and might be able to drill through my formation and hit my battleships immediately after the upgrade. Certainly the two ironclads would take a crack at any ranged ships I left within reach, so I'd have to keep enough melee ships back as a screen and further weaken my initial strike. I don't think Woden will do that, but if I were in his shoes and knew what I know, I think that's what I'd try.

As an added note, I wish I'd invested a bit of faith in an inquisitor or two with the main invasion fleet. Having the Raider's religion in these captured cities costs us 3 loyalty per turn, and sticking ours in there would get us +3 instead. That's not a trivial difference: Asahi would be loyalty positive with our religion in place, and that 6 loyalty swing would at a minimum buy the others an extra turn or two. An apostle for the inquisition plus an inquisitor itself would have been 390 + 150 = 540 faith, less than one Cossack. Too late now, unfortunately, as any religious units we try to send over are liable to be intercepted. But something to remember for future games.

Privateers west of Cape Matilda remain ready to pounce, with all four fleets in easy reach of friendly waters for potential upgrades:



In the Tethys, off the coast of occupied Japan, an embarked builder leaves me with a conundrum:



That unit is obviously ticketed for the oil tile four tiles to his west. I could capture it, but that would tip off Woden that I have a little strike force here, and if I don't get beat up by ironclads which can't have gone terribly far I should be able to kill a defending field cannon and pillage two coal mines next turn. I decide the risk isn't worth the reward here and back off, leaving the builder unmolested. If I change my mind about priorities, nothing stopping me from stealing it off the oil tile next turn.

[williams482]

Okay, world congress planning. I think it happens after the current round, so Roland you should send me some amount of favor back and we should coordinate how we are going to vote. With a combined pool of 372 (How much are you adding per turn?), the optimal distribution for maximum total votes (assuming we want to hit one proposal with as much as we can, which is most likely to be the right approach) is 150 favor = 6 votes for one teammate, 210 favor = 7 votes for the other, In our case leaving 12 favor (plus your income) surplus.

Roland, you should send me back 150 favor on your turn so I can accept it before the world congress turn, and if the world congress is actually after t192 instead of t191, send me 12 more on t192 to cover my losses.

[roland of gilead]

Okay, world congress planning. I think it happens after the current round, so Roland you should send me some amount of favor back and we should coordinate how we are going to vote. With a combined pool of 372 (How much are you adding per turn?), the optimal distribution for maximum total votes (assuming we want to hit one proposal with as much as we can, which is most likely to be the right approach) is 150 favor = 6 votes for one teammate, 210 favor = 7 votes for the other, In our case leaving 12 favor (plus your income) surplus.

Roland, you should send me back 150 favor on your turn so I can accept it before the world congress turn, and if the world congress is actually after t192 instead of t191, send me 12 more on t192 to cover my losses.

Will do. Anything else? o will play my turn shortly.

[williams482]

I think that's it for this turn.

[roland of gilead]

I think that's it for this turn.

you didn't sent me diplo. 

you have 174 i have 194 and get 9 per turn. 

what do we do now?