[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

He didn't spend all his gold on battleship, as he still has ~7 coal. Maybe subs but he doesn't have oil, so either upgrade using all of it or bought something else. Maybe the land oil is his only source within his borders and he bought a settle? If there are multiple sources in the tundra, outside his empire, that would be worth buying a settle, especially with all his gold.

I can take Illmatic next turn. What I thought was a lumbermill is an outback station so no need to hold up taking the city.

As for coal, it might be better to drop the OL card. Right now, the extra coal card is worth 8, so would give me a -8 penalty. Dropping the OL card would only be -4 and doesn't impact my battleships. I have a -1 penalty now, so he will see that next turn. If he pillages both coal mines, that will impact me on T193. He will be able to see it on his turn but I will upgrade to destroyers on my turn. The key will be to pull back next turn and find spots to upgrade. He won't push up next turn, as he will have to kill my forces by China and upgrade those battleships. I could use my scouting ironclad to pillage the coal mine at Buyniy. I wonder if I keep all my cities on Projects if I can finish Combined Arms next turn or do I slot Total War to make sure I can? I would have to buy a policy swap bit that would mean I also swap into OL again. Interesting, need to think about this for a bit. Thoughts?

With Total War slotted, I can get a few cultural pillages at Japan and speed up Totalitarianism more too. It is an option.

[ljubljana]

Agreed about dropping OL for upgrade card. How much does buying a policy swap cost? The sad thing is that it may be necessary either way as I think we need to go back into OL after upgrades for when we actually fight them. So perhaps Total War is a good idea too in order to make up some of the difference. But you will have to drop WoR or the coal card for that (probably WoR) and will therefore be very vulnerable if you do get attacked in the next 2t, including your IC in Australia. The other option is to save gold by doing a cheap civic research next and delaying Fascism... What a mess. Your fastest civic research is 5t, you said? Is that including the horse pillage at Illmatic and culture pillages in Japan?

Good thing they are letting you get at the Buyniy coal mine for some reason (?), I say go for it. They probably still have a builder around to take care of it but at least it will mess up their planning a bit and net us some gold. Although you may want to make sure your ships are still close enough to defend it with the threat of a first strike if he kills it (as long as that doesn't leave you in range of him on his next turn).

As for Australia, I need to think about what our melee ship wall should look like at Rodeo (assuming your IC do not stumble upon privateers). There are two setups I am debating between, I need to think about it for a few minutes...

[ljubljana]

Map A:



This may be the best we can do. I do not like how exposed I am to privateer sniping, but I see few other options. I think everything else leaves frigates outside the caravel line completely. At least everything is in GA range and we can hit the city with the maximum 4 frigates. Thoughts?

edit: Oh, I guess your back IC does not have enough movement to do this. In that case, swapping its proposed position here with the adjacent C is the best option I think. It should have 9 MP, right? (5 +1 (math) + 2 (HSD) +1 for shallow water)

edit2: I am going to try to put together another one that leaves the F on the pearls a little less doomed, though...

[Woden]

What if we shifted everything north 1 row. That would allow my front ironclad to pillage the sugar, which would give me enough faith to buy the university at Frigg. Then, if I maximize science (citizens working every possible campus building) I might get enough science to finish CA next turn.

As for policy swap costs, it is linked to how much research you have left in the civic you are currently researching. The last one coast ~600 gold but that was right after finishing a civic. I think maybe 300-500 gold is a good estimate but it will depend on how many cultural pillages I can get. One option for our Australian fleet is to make a sweep up towards He Was My Brother and pillage those pastures while in Total War. The way Russia was positioned at Geneva, he might be waiting up there and we can get some easy kills. I would still have my front ironclad pillage the sugar so we can use him as a decoy/trap. Then, if he is attacked next turn, we can sweep down and kill whatever attacks him.

[ljubljana]

Sugar pillage is a good idea, let me put together some more maps. If we shift everything NE without any other changes then my frigates attacking the city will be pretty exposed but there should be a way to make it work.

I think sweeping north to He Was My Brother is a good idea, but I believe we are on a reeeeally tight clock with Australia getting Steam Power right now. They will probably discover it next turn or the turn after that, and that probably ends any chance we have at taking Rodeo unless the walls are already down when it happens. But I agree that it does feel rather like we are walking into a trap right now. IDK, should we be willing to eat a one turn delay to make this a bit safer if the odds of them getting ironclads in that one turn are very high?

[ljubljana]

The issue is that moving the frigate off the pearls leads to maps with holes on it, like this one:

Map B:



But if I keep a frigate on the pearls it will get sniped by privateers for sure...

Also, a frigate on the pearls is only possible if both tiles next to the city are blocked, or the caravel fleet can attack out and possibly kill it in combination with the city strike. But if a caravel is on the southern tile next to the city, it will be out of GA range. That could be worth pillaging the pearls this turn though, not sure.

[ljubljana]

There are also various versions of the "hide a frigate" idea (map C):



This assumes that he is not likely to scout by Illmatic if he sees us going for Rodeo. It tightens up our line significantly, which is now pretty secure against attack from the west, and the frigate at Illmatic could shoot the city next turn if it looks like you will not be able to capture it for whatever reason. But obviously the cost is that he might scout Illmatic and eat the frigate.

There are a lot of things to like about scouting with ICs this turn and attacking Rodeo next turn, to be honest. If we scout this turn, we would be in position to have a safer line (relative to the west) than this turn since we would not be constrained as much by limited ship movement. It would also be easier to fix any problems that might develop with taking Illmatic, eg, if he is smart and moves the caravel fleet out of the city this turn to buy an extra turn. And we could look for privateers in the north, where I agree that there could easily be some lurking, in addition to in the west at Rodeo itself. The only real downside is that I would just get one attack at the Rodeo city walls rather than 3 this turn, which would leave the walls at roughly 120 health instead of roughly 50 health. Is that a huge downside? It depends on if they get an IC fleet in the city next turn or not...

[Woden]

Australia has no coal right now. Russia has 7, had 15 a few turns ago but also got 3 this turn thanks to Buyniy. He upgraded 11 coal units. If he didn't have the discount card in play, it could be 5 fleets and a single. If I pillage the coal at Buyniy, he will only have 1 coal at the start of his turn, so unless he sent coal to roland this turn, they won't have coal for a fleet ironclad.

Edit: It will be worse if he did have the discount card in play, he could have no coal at the start of his turn.

Edit2: I would prefer scouting north this turn to pillage. It will discount the policy swap and I think if we can sink ships, the less that can counterattack.

[ljubljana]

Map D, for if we move everything 1 NE:



There is a lot to like about this, as it has no holes and is safer from the north than the other maps. Only real issue is the very exposed frigate 2NW of the city. That would be a frigate fleet with multiple promotions (to do good damage to the city, and because those are the only ones in range) and it would really hurt to lose it. But maybe the redeeming features are enough to make up for that.

edit: Seeing your response now - he upgraded 11 coal units?? I thought he was neutral on coal last turn, though. Does that mean he is about to dive deep into the negatives on coal supply? I don't understand why that is worth it for them... We know they don't have enough coal for the +coal card to make up for an 11 unit deficit, don't we? Or is the idea that his fleet will be at a big strength penalty until he gets destroyers himself and frees up his coal supply? Or wait, it takes 2 to upgrade a fleet, so it will not be that huge of a deficit. Still, -6 strength is a lot, maybe worse than having fewer upgraded units. And does that mean he has given up on upgrading the 2 frigates he showed this turn, if he is only going to have 1 coal next turn?

edit2: Okay, I am fine with scouting to the north (I assume that includes getting the sugar at Rodeo). I assume the right thing for my ships to do is basically to stay in place unless you see a bunch of privateers up there, then? And then next turn we can form a better line in front of Rodeo with more of an assurance that we will not get hit from the back. As long as your IC end up a bit to the south of He Was My Brother, they should still be close enough to make a line like one of these on our next turn.

[ljubljana]

Something is not quite adding up here...they spent 5600 gold. If they did 11 coal worth of upgrades, let's say they are frigate to battleship upgrades - that would be something like 150 * 11 = 1650 in the discount card or 3300 not in the discount card. Whence the extra 2k+, then? Do you think they bought universities? They did get a pretty substantial jump in science this turn, 164 to 199.