[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

...come on, guys. What else are you even going to vote for? Not the grievance thing, that's for sure. Would they really consider voting for +4 gold on the China-Indonesia TRs, which is certain not to pass, and throwing the game to their arch-rivals? There's no way that'll happen, right? Not unless...ugh, not unless they decide they don't want to kingmake by casting such an impactful WC vote. But Kaiser sure isn't going to follow that rationale...

I note with a dawning sense of apprehension that suboptimal DID NOT vote for the nuclear emergency against you in PBEM18, dropping Ichabod's odds from 0% to 0.0000000% in so doing...

I guess there is a reason this mechanic is called the WC... 

edit: Unhinged rant aside, I guess 200 gpt times 30 turns is just 6k gold. Now there is no way we can lose 6k gold and still field enough modern ships to contest Russia, not unless we find 15 pillages somewhere to make up for it. But the funny thing is, they just spent almost exactly that amount on who knows what and are doing just fine... I guess it just goes to show you the power of Cossacks even on a naval map. They strip-pillaged my core and I could barely do anything to stop it, and they kept us from doing the same to Australia, with just that one unit and a lot of tactical daring. Wow.

Though really it's not the Cossacks per se so much as the crazy faith income that lets them spawn instantly wherever they want. Faith-bought cavalry could have done essentially the same thing, if a little less effectively. Russia, man!

edit2: williams posting in their thread in the middle of the night, too. I can't wait to compare rants...

[Woden]

I think voting to add +4 to your trade routes is the best vote here. I have 12 routes going to your civilization. Hurting Russia will not really hurt him as he has so much pillage gold. Switching to Democracy didn't get me into the positive like I hoped. Gaining 48 gpt will. My best guess is that everybody will vote to increase a teammates routes. I could see Russia/Australia holding favor for an emergency down the road. I am unsure if we should consider it too. Kaiser is the wild card here as he will most likely vote to end my international trade routes, so we will have to make sure to spend some favor here. I think the play is probably dump everything into making yoru trade routes +4 gold better. Not sure if teh game will last long enough for an emergency (most likely against me since you already have one against you). Fascism will lessen the impact of it, so better to go for gold.

The other option is really a waste, so no need to worry about it.

[ljubljana]

I don't know... Adding +4 to your trade routes to me will be worth something like 48 GPT to you, which is quite good if it passes. But how much do we think Russia is making per TR? Probably something like 16 GPT each, and if they have the same number as you do, it will cost them 192 GPT to have their TRs canceled. I think that will be much more impactful as Russia will start bleeding gold rapidly and may not be able to mass-upgrade oil units. In the 10 turns until they get Combined Arms they will lose something like 2000 gold, which is worth roughly 6-7 fleet destroyer upgrades. Meanwhile, 48 GPT to you will only get you 1.5 upgrades in the same timeframe. With their fleet off our east coast, they no longer have unlimited pillages either, so I think it makes sense to start cutting off their gold supply, especially since they have access to enough oil to upgrade 12 destroyers now. That is, if we can get it passed.

But can we? Unfortunately, that depends quite heavily on what suboptimal and Bruindane do. I think the best move for Russia/Australia is definitely to vote to cut off your TRs, and I would be quite surprised if they don't do that. They probably feel pretty set on gold for themselves given the amount they just spent, and if they can get your TRs cut off you will lose roughly 200 GPT, and I do not think there is any easy way to replace that (let me know if I am mistaken). They also know Kaiser is going to vote for that for sure, so they will probably feel pretty confident about their ability to get it passed. If they do that, we can block it only if we vote for the same thing the I/C team votes for, either option A for one of us (in which case we outvote them and get to pick the target) or option B against Russia.

So what do we think suboptimal and Bruindane will do? I am not sure... Voting to hurt Russia will hurt Russia much more than voting to boost themselves will help themselves. They also have virtually no chance of getting a boost for China passed. Actually they have zero chance of getting it passed, as it would require neither us nor Russia to vote option A on ourselves, which is possible, but then we would be voting for option B and outvoting them anyways. The only way for a China boost to pass is if none of us spend favor, which is obviously not going to happen. I am pretty sure the rational thing for them to do in terms of game impact is to vote to cut off Russia. But that does not mean they will do that... In fact, I have a horrible feeling that they are not that invested in hurting Russia and are going to vote to boost themselves anyways, or worse, save their favor. But it will be an unbelievably bad blunder if they do vote to cut off Russia and we screw it up by voting to boost us. 

What do you think?

edit: Also, the grievance thing is not totally useless as apparently there is some kind of hidden loyalty penalty for conquered cities that depends on how many grievances you have with the founder. Not worth spending favor on ofc, but there is the question of whether we use our free votes to halve your grievances or double Russia’s. My first thought is the latter as there is at least some chance of I/C joining us on that one.

[Woden]

If we vote for added gold form me for your trade routes, I can upgrade using all my gold. If not, I will need to keep some around so my ships don't disappear. Vote against Russia seems gimmicky and any time we had tried something like that, it blows up in our face. Best option here is better our standing instead of trying to hurt someone else.

[ljubljana]

Ok, I will do that, using all my favor unless you think otherwise. I do think Russia will vote to cut us off using all their favor as they don’t need extra gold and it will hurt us very badly if it succeeds. But I don’t really think I/C will vote to hurt them so we probably need to vote option A to block Russia... That is sad as losing their TRs would be devastating but it is what it is

Also planning to swap to Conscription soon over Grand Armee which will help your finances a bit. I just have to make sure I will not get overwhelmed by Cossacks first...

[ljubljana]

Well, I really don't like the position we are in. If Russia cancels your trade routes we are unbelievably dead, like I seriously think it is a game over scenario if that happens and you drop to -250 GPT. But there is no guaranteed way to stop it, and yeah, I think you are right and this is the best option and the one C/I is more likely to go for. Blah.

We just need one of our opponents to vote for Option A to be safe. I do not think any of the three has a very good reason to do so since none of them has the votes to pass it. But it still seems more likely than assuming C/I is still mad enough at Russia to go all-in on screwing them over. Sadly I think the most likely outcome is Russia canceling your TRs and C/I saving their favor.

At least this time I actually spent all my votes...

[Woden]

Early turn today. I voted the same as you but had 7 votes to increase trade routes to you.

[Woden]

I should probably let you know how I ended up. Over by Australia, I did run across 1 privateer, along the coast of the northern island...
   

Surprisingly little else. I am pretty sure there has to be ships lurking in the fog but not sure if they will come out to play. Over by our mainland, I pillaged the mine and move my ships back slightly. 

After the policy swap, I am still -31 gpt and that is with more happiness and +25% gold on my off continent cities. I did switch all my cities that had campus buildings to high science and everywhere that could run a project is running a project. I am not sure if it will be enough, it will be close. I also looked to see if there was anything I could pillage for science or chop into a project just in case I am short but nothing that could be reached next turn. 

As for techs...
   

Everything in that tier is 1,776 beakers. May be take Russia 9 turns to complete at his current rate of 199.  I think he is NOT going to go to Combined Arms next and chose subs instead because at least he can get a production bonus. I suspect he will go for Flight or do Nuclear Fission before Combined Arms. If he choses Nuclear Fission to get an early start on the Manhattan Project, we should get there at the same time so we will have to make sure to juice Thor's production. If you have any routes completing over the next coming turns, I say send them to Thor. Each one will give Thor 2 food/2 production, as long as you are running Wisselbanken.

[ljubljana]

re: privateers, what the heck? Where could the rest of them be hiding... Well, I guess the plan should still be to leave my ships in place and attack Rodeo next turn? I doubt they will attack your IC though, so most likely we will just have to brave a possible counterattack next turn instead of this turn. At least we will have a bit more information about that when we choose to do so, though. Let me know if you have other thoughts and want me to move forward this turn or something, though.

Sounds good re: swapping to campus projects. I agree about Russia's likely tech choices, and think we should assume they will do Nuclear Fission next. Actually, in retrospect I am wondering if we should have done that ourselves. As it stands we will start the Manhattan Project at around the same time, and they have more productive cities than we do so they will likely get their first nuke before we do . I expect they will go Fission - Combined Arms - Rocketry so they have time to locate uranium while the Manhattan Project is being built.

I don't have time to play right now but I will try to at least load up the save to see what the WC has decided...

[ljubljana]

deeeep breath...



turns out you are a lot better at this than i am  thank you so much for talking me down off that cliff <3

lmao at Kaiser not only saving favor but using his free vote to cut off TRs...with Russia!! What? Not sure how we built up that much good will with him, but I’ll take it

I also have emergencies to propose this turn, which is probably why Russia saved their favor. Didn’t get a chance to see what they are though. If there is one against Russia I guess I may as well propose it though? We are probably not going to get another chance, and at least they will have to spend some favor fighting that off instead of re-passing yours...

edit: actually I guess option B vs Russia would have passed too if we had gone for it. But we 100% made the right call given what I/C did. I was sure Kaiser and R/A would spend their favor to hurt us or at least help themselves, and we made what would have been the game-saving move to block them if they had come for your TRs...