[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

Ok, let me think through the "TCD before subs option". It looks like:

t194 - I take off 1/3 its health, he places 1 or 2 oil wells depending on how close ice city is to the nearest oil. Probably 2 wells since he got to move the AH worker this turn
t195 - I take off another 1/3 health, he gets 6 oil and upgrades 6 subs
t196 - I finish the walls, he has subs in my face.

Okay, I think that's out and we are one turn too slow to force TCD before subs. So the next option is REALLY careful scouting. We play it safe this turn and pillage stuff, and take Rodeo. Then we minesweep for ships in the bay by TCD over the next few turns, and if we don't find any, we

- put an IC at Vladimir Monomakh to prevent surprise attacks from that direction
- use the destroyer to scout out this line:



The furthest tiles it can see from that line are 9 spaces from my proposed caravel positions, so privateers in the fog would be too far away to get a first strike. If we can scout that line and block VM with an IC and clear the bay of Russian ships, we should be good to go on a TCD attack.

edit: The even bolder idea is that you could move both the most NW and and the most SE ICs 8 tiles SW this turn to look for privateers, which would not minesweep all privateer-eligible tiles but would get most of them. Then I could head straight for TCD with incomplete caravel shielding and just hope there are not privateers in the tiles we miss. But that seems stupid and bad so I don't really like it.

[Woden]

So, do you want me to bring my ships south to College Dropout this turn?

Edit: I think it is better to hold back and wait until next turn. Have more ships in play.

[Woden]

I could go after the trade route in the north. Use a ICF as bait to see if he bits. Then, I could upgrade the other one in Rodeo to a 2nd destroyer. You could pull your ships back a few tiles. Best guess is that Russia is probably just out of range of our ships now or just in range. If you move a couple tiles back you would be out of range. Then, we would have 2 destroyers to scout out the ocean.

[ljubljana]

Ok, we can hold back. Next turn he plants the well and we minesweep in the south, probably moving a few scouting caravels + IC all the way to Borodino to see if there is a mass waiting to upgrade that we can attack, while moving the destroyer to the NE end of that line. Then next turn, he upgrades, but hopefully he does not want to upgrade at Borodino because he would be in range of an attack if he does. Then you can move the destroyer along the red line the turn after and if all is clear, maybe we go for TCD. Or something like that.

edit: Second destroyer here seems like a great idea, especially if it will have 2 promotions.

edit2: I think the dream for next turn's minesweeping is to get close enough to Borodino that he can't upgrade in that bay without us getting a first strike. Then if he upgrades too far to the west, it will give us a free hand to hit TCD. Subs have one less movement than our ships so they will have to move into range before they can hit us, and as long as we have near-perfect scouting (tall order, I know) he should not be able to dislodge us from TCD. We just have to find a way to safely move into that area...

[Woden]

Okay, I am going to go after the trader and then upgrade the other ICF to a destroyer so we have 2 in the area. You pull your ships back a few tile, in range of the bait and we sweep next turn. If he doesn't go after the ICF that pillages, it will be in good position to sweep along your line.

Or he could go pillage a harbor and mine to speed up Nuclear Fission.

[Woden]

Passed the save, too late for a report but I did pin where I want your ships in the north. Feel free to adjust as you see fit. I ended up not taking out the GA but rather took a look east and seen nothing. I also set it up so the GA can't move further west. Next turn we can position better to strike if we can find his ships.

[ljubljana]

I think we need a destroyer to sweep the line before we do TCD as we need the extra vision. The line would have to be 2 tiles further west if we just used an IC to be 100% sure to not get first struck. But if you pillage the TR that IC will still be in great position to scout. You may want to move one IC around in the SW a little too so that we know that at least the 4-ish tiles closest to me are free from privateers, IDK. That way if I move back 3-4 tiles I should be safe.

Probably the goal for the turn after this one is to pick a position for our ships where we can hit him next turn if he upgrades at Borodino. Then, scout with IC + destroyers so that there are no privateers within 8 tiles of that position. Then, we can safely go there and know that his sub upgrades will have to happen west of this bay.

[ljubljana]

Turn 195, Part 1 - Phoenicia

I don't know if you are still up but a quick fun fact for you, and for me who is constantly being a downer about our position:



Over the next 4 turns, Russia's team will lose:

Abjad next turn
Suboptimal's capital in 2 turns
Abugida in 3 turns
The Low-End Theory in 4 turns

4 cities in 4 turns, without us having to do a thing. And look at those numbers:

4010 + 384 = 4394
2631 + 1779 = 4410

Our team is tops in milpower for what is very likely the first turn all game! I'm a downer so I am expecting the bottom to fall out any second now, but even to have reached this point is pretty amazing...

[ljubljana]

Turn 195, Part 2 - Phoenicia

Shot for posterity's sake in case I ever feel like making the doomed argument that, in very limited circumstances, the loyalty system actually adds some meaningful strategic depth to (water map) conquests and should probably not be wholesale modded out of the game:



With Renaissance Walls in LET, this conquest order was by far the most efficient for us. If we were not in a GA and they in a DA, we would have to confront those walls head-on and would have stalled out for an enormous amount of time. But this is kinda cool! And it is as a result of our decision-making on both the strategic level (in going for the GA) and the tactical level (in our attack plan) that we were able to get here. That says something in the very qualified defense of the system, at least. Although I am sure being on the receiving end is maddening and much less likely to inspire praise of the mechanics...

(oh, and you may want to move Magnus to Rodeo next turn... though it looks like we shouldn't need Victor, which is lucky indeed as his double-shot is our only hope against the tidal wave of mean smelly horsies)

[ljubljana]

Turn 195, Part 3 - Phoenicia

I did see one thing this turn that filled me with a deep and abiding joy on this sleepy and nerve-wracking evening:



Hey, that's exactly what we did! I kinda want to read this frigate fleet as indicating that they are expecting a (doomed and idiotic) attack on their capital. Which is interesting in that it is not the same thing as a (doomed and desperate) defense against a swarm of 20 privateers and 6+ subs. Probably reading too much into it but it's (part 3 of) my turn and I can overanalyze if I want to

hey, ljublie, why don't you check the gossip screen? maybe you'll learn something useful there?



...oh. oh yeah