[SPOILERS] Chevalier Mal Fet and Marcopolothefraud lead a Soviet Down Under

[roland of gilead]

Is it possible to spend gold for a second policy swap after using a civic for a free swap? ... Does anyone know what drives the cost changes?

You can get an additional policy swap if you change government or chop-complete a wonder that gives you a slot, but can't buy one with gold. Not sure if you can first buy and then pillage-complete a civic for a second but probably not. I don't remember the details on the cost but think 100gc base, scales with districts, and you get 10% discount per turn since your last change up to 7 or 8 turns.

A concession would definitely be premature. As long as both sides have functional fleets the game isn't decided.

completing a govmet plaza or  building too i think. 


Perhaps the diplomatic quarter?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

A concession would definitely be premature. As long as both sides have functional fleets the game isn't decided.

I agree, however, reading some of will's reports the game was a chore for him (reporting, too, especially since he insists on such care and quality in both his reports and his turns!). I'm the only original player even left in the thread - both will and roland are gracious subs - and if they're not enjoying themselves then I thought we should call it. Not fair to ask them to slog on out of some sense of obligation to me. 

As long as they're having fun then they should continue.

[roland of gilead]

I do hope Williams can get the win hew deserves.

[williams482]

Turn 195:

Unsurprisingly, the three privateers in the Tethys were destroyed last turn:



Two sunk by city centers, the third by an ironclad which presumably spotted for them. Also fired upon, but remarkably not destroyed, my cossack corp on (W)Odin's campus:



This is a major unexpected windfall, leaving the possibility of pillaging this tile three times with three units and completing Combined Arms right now, before we've even hooked up oil. But before we make a decision on that, the Norwegian naval deployment:



This feels like a weird half-measure, but really it's exactly the kind of pressure they should be applying on me. Oh to have oil coming in one turn sooner (which, for those taking notes at home, I absolutely could have: my builder at Borodino opted to do nothing on t193 instead of clearing the farm then to possibly build a well last turn, because I deemed the timing suboptimal. I regret that.) If I had three stockpiled right now, I would take a defensive posture here, upgrading three destroyers and using them to hold the gap between Asahi and Izumrud and dare them to attack into my strongest ships while I took potshots at their capital. I could still do that now, but it would be less effective because I'd be trying to upgrade six units and counterattack at the same time next turn if they took the bait, instead of upgrading three and attacking with an existing three (who would be damaged, but much less so than the same ships in ironclad form). Or, I can take the aggressive option and accept the gauntlet that Woden has thrown down here, kill all these ships, absorb his counterpunch, and hope to come out on top there.

So, how strong could that counterpunch be? I know Woden had at least eight ironclad fleets in this theater on t191, plus at least one battleship fleet and at least two single battleships. There could well have been more ships of either sort, especially as the ships on pillage defense duty near Loki and Thor appear to have moved elsewhere. Then there's the question of how many are destroyers. We had reason to believe 11 had been upgraded last turn. Woden has lost a net of 1 oil this turn, suggesting consumption of 10 per turn against +9 from three wells and thus 10 destroyer (or submarine) upgrades. The weird thing here, though, is that Woden's milpower has fallen off since the upgrades would have occurred: 2767 on t193, 2690 on the t193 WC interturn and t194 proper, now 2631 on t195. The dead field cannon corp accounts for a loss of 70, so with that excepted these are net "increases" of -77 after Woden's t193 and +11 after Woden's t194. The upgrades should have been reflected in the post-t193 update, so what happened there that not only ate +150 milpower worth of improvements, but dropped his score an extra 77 points? I could have caused a portion of that by shooting at his ironclad by Svetlana, but that's only going to be ~55 or 60 points. I guess he could have merged a bunch of ironclads, but it would have been really odd to keep a bunch of singles where they could be merged without merging them (and take the resource hit on all existing ironclads while waiting). Unless this was a planned attempt to conceal how many of which ships were actually upgraded? I'm still betting on 10 total destroyers. Meaning as many as 8 are weighting to counterattack in the Panthalassic.

Tactically, my advantage is numbers and (probably) superior ranged firepower. Both of those advantages most beneficial if I can attack a large force across a long front, as I was able to do against Woden at Diomede I (phase II). Smashing this quartet of ships, then taking a counterpunch from probably twice their number and then some, is far from an optimal use of what I have and I refuse to believe this advance screen was pushed forward without sufficient support to punish an attack. This is bait. I am not taking it.

Instead, I'm sticking with the defensive plan. I'm going to recapture Izumrud, back just out of reach of this Norwegian advance screen, set a defensive line of my strongest ironclads between the two cities, hook up my oil, and pillage Combined Arms to completion. The signs should be pretty clear: I am about to upgrade destroyers. Come and get me now, or try to fight me with unit parity a little later. If Woden tries to fight I'll counterattack for as much damage as I can manage, if Woden takes a relatively conservative posture (I think this is more likely based on past engagements, but far from certain) then I will continue to hold the line and start taking ranged potshots at (W)Odin.

Lets do the pillaging stuff first. Woden how has a (faith purchased?) berserker in Frigg, and at least one of Ljubljana's pike and shot units has made it down here, but no other ground troops are plainly in evidence. Three cossacks burn down the university, library and campus in succession, and what have we here:



That plus hooking up our oil (which boosts Plastics) gets us some new information:



What was being said about airplanes again? Because there they bloody well are. I think I'd rather bet on navies over air power right now though, so research begins on Replaceable Parts (to be followed by Chemistry, then Plastics to hook up sea-based oil resources). Pillages will further accelerate these techs. On a whim I decide to check out the climate screen, and it turns out we have some notable events upcoming:



For better or worse, it does not look like anyone will be severely hampered by rising sea levels. Russia certainly won't be, the only tiles in our mainland core which are in any danger are a lever 1 farm first ring of Borodino and a level 3 lumbermill third ring of Navarin. Svalbard will get hit harder but no critical infrastructure will be imperiled. And, melting ice may make it possible for ships to travel between Borodino and Olysayaba via Sissoil Veliki. On the whole, seems like no biggie, even a slight plus.

We also have four Uranium resources on the Russian subcontinent, three in our territory and one under a Lavra. Most civs have 2-3. My bad, again.

Our cossacks take out a shrine and Woden's last source of Marble, then form up like so:



One battleship spends a promotion on Rolling Barrage (little sense in saving that, if Battleships come under fire they probably die, and if they don't but time is still a factor then I am likely to have them keep firing instead of spending a turn to promote-heal), two more blast down most of the defenses at Izumrud and the final pair farm some XP off of a free city line infantry, whose demise makes for Chin Shih's first official kill. A caravel then swoops in capture the city yet again. It will be ours for this turn and two more unless Woden takes it himself, granting us less impediments to movement through this channel and one more thing to soak up a hit or two that might otherwise be thrown at a Russian vessel. Said vessels deploy as so:



Come and get me, Woden. Or don't, I'm fine with that too.

For civics, the play (given Thrawn's very helpful information) is clearly to slot in Scorched Earth to set up a natural swap of Drill Manuals for Force Modernization next turn, maximizing combat strength both on the interturn and subsequently, then buy a swap with gold the turn after and go back to pumping ships. For now, unfortunately, every single type of ship we can build has an oil based upgrade, so we have to shut it all down again to preserve our upgrade opportunities. Once again I really wish I had an option for allocating resources towards upgrades that wasn't essentially shutting down the military production of the entire empire, but this is what we got.

I do not know where the rest of the Raider fleet went:



This smells like a tactical withdrawal to assess our reaction, and could be followed by a heavy push forward towards The College Dropout or possibly Borodino next turn. Also possible, the Raiders assume (correctly, more or less) that I have an ambush ready here, and further conclude that trying to push into it with the ships they have now just isn't worth it. Their fleet here is clearly better than mine if properly deployed, even if I get the first strike in, so every turn of stalemate is a win for us. Certainly attempting to take out that solitary ironclad would be a poor choice. I continue my policy of cowardice:



Adios Hermanos will flip next turn, no stopping it now. I don't have the upgrade card in, so upgrading units is not even a consideration. These brave souls will blow up everything they can reach until they are cleaned up by free city troops. Had I been slightly sharper a couple turns ago I would have swapped that knight on the coal with the slower, more fragile man at arms, figuring that it could only be counted on to pillage that one thing while the knight could use it's speed to do a little more damage in a more target rich environment, but too late for that now.

[williams482]

I suspect if I go back and read some of my reports they will carry a more morose tune than what I remember from past turns. Many of these turns have been stressful and tiring, but that's because I want very badly to do a good job, and insist on spending more time and mental energy than I am under any real obligation to do simply for playing the turns. And there have been (and probably will continue to be) days where I am not able to find sufficient time to play a turn, and whenever that happens I feel bad for making the other players wait on me. I am also, I suspect, more likely to mention when my emotional response to the game is at a low point than I am to say a few days later that I'm having fun again. So that can present an unfairly skewed perspective and might be something for me to improve on.

On the balance, despite occasional doldrums I am enjoying playing this game, and when it's done I fully expect I'll be relieved, but also glad I stuck it out. That's consistent with my experience during and after the Canada game, and will almost certainly be how I experience any future games I might get involved with on purpose.

If I consistently couldn't find the time to keep playing turns, or the game were having a detrimental effect on my mental health, I would apologize and back out. I wouldn't feel great about that, but I wouldn't be the first or last person to have to pull out mid-game, and by and large people here seem to be understanding when issues do crop up and that's very good to see.

[roland of gilead]

They have moved south at rodeo but it is a bit fractious perhaps.

Up in their homeland they moved forward but it looks ok. No support bonuses

[roland of gilead]

I suspect if I go back and read some of my reports they will carry a more morose tune than what I remember from past turns. Many of these turns have been stressful and tiring, but that's because I want very badly to do a good job, and insist on spending more time and mental energy than I am under any real obligation to do simply for playing the turns. And there have been (and probably will continue to be) days where I am not able to find sufficient time to play a turn, and whenever that happens I feel bad for making the other players wait on me. I am also, I suspect, more likely to mention when my emotional response to the game is at a low point than I am to say a few days later that I'm having fun again. So that can present an unfairly skewed perspective and might be something for me to improve on.

On the balance, despite occasional doldrums I am enjoying playing this game, and when it's done I fully expect I'll be relieved, but also glad I stuck it out. That's consistent with my experience during and after the Canada game, and will almost certainly be how I experience any future games I might get involved with on purpose.

If I consistently couldn't find the time to keep playing turns, or the game were having a detrimental effect on my mental health, I would apologize and back out. I wouldn't feel great about that, but I wouldn't be the first or last person to have to pull out mid-game, and by and large people here seem to be understanding when issues do crop up and that's very good to see.

Don't feel guilty you are doing an excellent job. I have learned so much from your play and i wish i had supported you better. 

As you say back out if it becomes to much for you.

[roland of gilead]

I suicided a couple of ships at rodeo. I would just have lost them in the city anyway. I may have just given the ironclad a promotion ordone no good but as i say they were doing nothing.

I found a berserker at sea but i couldn't even scratch it in reality really.

sent you a bit more gold and some horses Williams.

[williams482]

What an interesting bit of brinksmanship around Asahi. That's a pretty defensible position for that front line, I could encircle them but that would leave me even more vulnerable to whatever counterpunch is waiting. Also note that the northernmost ship in that line was upgraded; I expect to see Woden with 25 oil stockpiled next turn.

I can't make any kind of real plan until I can peek further into the fog, but the most likely approach here is probably to blast those visible units with the battleships while protecting them as well as possible on the right flank, and upgrading our half dozen destroyers in the channel to punish a counterattack. I'm of half a mind to pull back and use the freshly upgraded ships to shield the rest, but that's asking to be surrounded if Woden's ships are close enough and we've learned (in the best possible way) that there's ample potential for disaster there.

[roland of gilead]

i moved my units to give you best possible vision at rodeo.