[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

Might be nice if you could please post a final shot of your positions before passing the turn just for flight-check purposes in case we spot anything last-minute (since this is the Big Turn). Nbd if you can't though

I will post some shots before I play. Probably be a few hours.

[ljubljana]

Sounds good to me, thank you!

[Woden]

By the way, the southern most ICF NE of Asahi has +8 support (so 3 ships S & E) but the other caravel is only +6 (1 more ship somewhere) and the southern IFC (south of fog) is +6. He is also running both OL and WoR cards. Best guess, most likely running the coal card over raider production card unless he has an extra coal somewhere I can't see. I guess we will know next turn by if he has -2 or -3 penalty.

[ljubljana]

Got it, yeah, sounds like a good read to me. I would expect nothing less from williams who has been a masterful fighter at the tactical and strategic levels so far.

He is really going to start getting a reputation around here as a killer closer if he keeps this up... (closer in the baseball pitcher sense)

[Woden]

Turn 195-Vikings cont.
Here is how I ended up in the north...
   

I changed positions of my southern most IFC. I shifted him 1 tile north because I was worried about a battleship inside Izumrud taking a free shot. This will leave you your caravel to place as you see fit. If you fill in as I have pinned in the screenshot, I think we will be sitting good. Between both of us, I think we have him out numbered but the quality of ships favors him. This set-up forces him to either hit our southern flank and run out of movement or blast through the north, were the number of ships will eat up his attacks. Either way, we can blast him back next turn will most of our modern ships. 

Over by Australia...
   

I only found 1 privateer just out of range. My best guess is that this is a scout and his main fleet is back a bit. Next turn, if we are lucky and he doesn't attack again, I will pillage the canal to trap any ships in there (or I can go look to see if I can pillage the oil). I tried to get my ships into what I think would be your line if you sailed down to TCD. 

I repaired my coal at Tibbert's Brook and will have coal next turn. If we don't get attacked at Australia, there is lots of gold pillaging we can do and if you caravels are still alive, I can send you gold and coal for upgrades. Or, I can upgrade more destroyers but I am already -1 per turn with this turn's upgrade. I will have another source hooked up in 3 and have plenty in storage (25). 

Finally, I took one of Japan's final 2 cities....
   

I was hoping to pillage the cotton but I figured he was in good position for me to kill the samurai and redline the crossbow (what I think is his last unit). I also sent the GG over to his final city and found another Theater Square, so I will pillage that one. I also sent the cotton plus 20 more niter over to you. I think we are in good position. Most of my battleships still have movement if you think they should move towards the ice a tile but I want to give them as much reach as I can in case he pulls back a bit.

[ljubljana]

Positioning overall looks good! Nice and unscoutable as far as I can tell unless he commits to killing the bait ships.

I admit I am a bit nervous about the battleships. I might pull just the two southernmost ones back a tile? That way he will have to come right up next to the destroyer line to hit them, which will give you a chance to counterattack next turn (assuming he doesn't wipe our destroyers as well )

Kinda think we are both outnumbered and outclassed in terms of ships but it will get WAY worse over the next few turns, not only will all his best ICs become double-promoted destroyers but the caravels will become more ICs. The time to roll the dice is now I think.

What do you think I should do at Australia?

[Woden]

For you at Australia, I think you are out of range for TCD but you should move closer so you can hit the city next turn. There is also a caravel over by my berserker, if you want to take him out but my embarked berserker can land on teh island and wait for my ironclad by Fort Miln or the battleship attacking Japan.

[Woden]

I am equal odds with his double promoted ironclad with a GA and +8 support against an un-promoted destroyer, so I don't think we are outclassed right now. In a few turn, maybe but a lot of my destroyers are 1 attack from a promotion and his current GA won't work with destroyers. But, the +10 against ranged attacks will cause some issues, for sure.

[ljubljana]

Not sure I can both advance into range of TCD and kill the caravel...what would you prefer if I can only do one? Or do you think it's worth splitting off 2 frigates to get the caravel if there might be more privateers or something in the fog?

Sadly I think my caravels can't reach the pinned tiles as they only have 7 moves What do you think I should do with them? Also, not sure on the rationale for moving all 3 of my IC forward...maybe I should keep 2 of them in the safe zone so that he has fewer targets? Also if I have too many unnecessary ships hanging about he will start to think it is a front line rather than just a few scouts, which of course is exactly what it is.

Yeah, we are going to have to be careful and intentional about using destroyers on the double-promoted things and battleships on things with only one promotion. Also I think next turn we should not attack his new destroyers, as if we kill them he will just use his treasury to make more. Better to let his treasury sit around uselessly and kill a larger number of his unupgraded ships first.

[Woden]

Advance towards TCD.

And yes, we want to give him lots of targets. Lots of older targets that are not in position with our main fleet. The whole point of this set up is to draw him out...fight on our terms...attack where we want him to attack. Hopefully, it draws his battleships out but if it doesn't we can kill his melee ships. Let him think he is getting first strike. One of us is going to get it, we are just setting it up to minimize lose of MP and hopefully deliver a crushing counterattack.

If your caravels can't make it to the pinned position, do the best you can, understanding that their purpose is to draw an attack (ZOC), absorb attacks (less attacks on better ships), and not to be in position to survive (survival good, survival while better ships die, bad).

What is most likely to happen is he will retreat to Abugida and upgrade his destroyers between Asahi and Izumrud and SE of Asahi.