[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

Turn 197-Vikings start
Game on!
   

He killed all your ships and my ironclad and formed a decent defensive line. Need to decide if I hit the right side (the double promoted destroyer) and see if I can get at some ranged ships or do I hit the left and and form a defensive line between Asahi and Joe Aribo. I am leaning a little more on going left and limited the path for a counterstirke. 

Over by Australia...
   

He scattered his units, most likely going west. His oil is not protected but it looks like he bought a builder in Borodino. My pillaging IFC will most likely die, either this turn or next. Here, I think kill the privateer fleet and maybe have 1 destroyer go east and one go west to sweep for hidden ships. I think I also will go for the sugar at Knyaz Suvurov. I am thinking I might want to finish Conservation for the policy swap and put in the melee card to build some land units and get rid of these Cossacks. I was also thinking it might confuse Russia if I complete a civic between Suffrage and Totalitarianism. He might not thing Fascism is right behind Democracy.

Edit: The center ships on the second line are fully supported at +12.

[ljubljana]

Looks like the bought builder may mean there is little point in pillaging the oil. We should consider just saving your pillaging IC, it will probably do more damaging pillaging a TR or a tile improvement every turn than getting the oil once for what will be just one turn. Depends on the result of the combat in Phoenicia though as 3 fewer oil at a critical time would mean 3 fewer destroyer upgrades...

With your Australia ships, the privateers only have 6 movement so they can't get really away. If you move the destroyer west/southwest before doing anything else I bet you will find them pretty quick and can potentially get more kills.

Should we go for TCD this turn? If so we will need a unit next to Borodino so he can't sail his frigate out and snipe one of my ships. Maybe that means killing the exposed frigate with the destroyer going east, if that's a one-shot. If necessary I can kill the privateer fleet just fine if there are no other Russian ships in range to counterattack.

Are we sure we actually want to attack Russia this turn and commit to fighting before Fascism? Seems like a decent move to me since we do get a first strike, but what kind of odds are you getting? How many battleship shots will it take to kill one of those promoted destroyers? We still have a chance to retreat and take a good fight later if things look really bad.

To reiterate from earlier, unless you sacrifice the IC to pillage the oil, priority should be to kill weaker ships and not the destroyers, which will just upgrade to destroyers once more oil is freed up with Russia's infinite gold. The way to win is by taking down their total ship numbers ASAP, IMO. edit: Or that was my thought when I wrote this out but now IDK. At least newly upgraded destroyers can't attack for a turn, I guess, and we are never going to kill all the caravels and IC before the fight is over.

On balance the right side does offer less of a chance of getting hit from the west next turn, which is a big issue IMO. But that position also means a higher of a chance of getting trapped when he does come up through the west (which will inevitably happen sooner or later). Idk, we should think about it probably... Pretty worried about getting trapped against China's coast in either case TBH, not sure of the best way to avoid that and still fight this turn.

Finally, the most important tactical consideration for this turn is probably to leave at least one, preferably two tiles between your front-line destroyers and battleships in the final deploy so that he cannot snipe your battleships with his. Whichever side hits the other's ranged firepower first is going to win this battle and it needs to be us. We can achieve this by, eg, weakening a front-line ship with battleship shots from the maximum range of 3 tiles, then finishing it off with a destroyer. That is, if we do indeed decide to have a battle now, anyways,

[ljubljana]

May also want to move the ICF at Asahi 1SE before doing anything else just for one tile more of scouting along the likely counterattack vector.

[Woden]

So you don't want me to hit the destroyers but also leave 2 tiles between between the frontline and battleships, so don't do anything with the battleships, right? Not going to happen. We need to strike, otherwise, why did you position your ships right next to his. I don't see a way not to kill some destroyers. Even if he just upgrades more next turn, those will be ships out of the fight next turn, so we can kill others. He did not hook up another oil in the tundra, so if we pillage the oil, no upgrades next turn. I can probably kill the 2 left most destroyers and the caravel behind them and still have a decent line of defense. I am not getting very good odds on the double promoted ironclad with the battleships (111 vs 84), it is nearly what I get with the single promoted destroyers (115 vs 84). I looked and there is a lone double promoted destroyer directly east of the pillaged mine at Izumrud.

[ljubljana]

Yeah, fine by me. Sorry, I acknowledge that my pieces of advice there conflicted with each other, was just saying the first things that came to mind without really considering if they added up to a sensible attack plan.

As for why I positioned ships next to his if we shouldn't strike, well, yeah, it was so we can strike this turn and get some kills in exchange for my bait navy. But if you think it is a losing fight overall, it would still be better to accept that I made a mistake and retreat now without avenging those ships, while we are in a good position in the game overall, than bet the whole game outcome on this fight. That's only if you think we will lose this fight though...if you think we will win, by all means full steam ahead

As for the destroyer east of Izumrud, might be good to keep a destroyer or two of your own a few tiles out from the BS on the west side just in case he sails up that way. Not sure how likely it is in practice but it's probably what I would do, sail up through the back and try to trap you and ravage the BS with melee ships.

edit: I am a bit nervous about the fight odds if we can kill just 2 destroyers though, he can probably kill 4-5 of yours next turn if he commits his battleships and may execute a successful trap from the west as well. But maybe I am just catastrophizing. I will leave this decision to you as you are by far the better strategic thinker here

[Woden]

Crazy Idea here. What if instead of attacking him, I go and take Buyniy and Izumrud, then buy a policy swap and slot Their Finest Hour for +5 when fighting in or adjacent to home territory. His ships would be too far to do much damage, he would have a hard time getting through the gap because the city would have ZOC on 1 of the tiles. If he does move closer, as long as I am close to the borders, I get a +5 CS. If he doesn't, I can start working on Asahi to get that into my empire. It would take a few turns and doubt I can get it but still might be worth it, depending on what he does.

Edit: It would mean capturing your cities and not giving them back to you. Also, if he were to go around the island on the north side, I can then sneak pass Asahi and take Abugida.

[ljubljana]

Seems not crazy to me, if it seems like the best move to you when all is said and done. Izumrud he will probably just take back and kill whatever unit you use to take the city, but Buyniy's tiles reach far enough east that you could still make a good line if you only used tiles from that city. And if he retakes Izumrud that does use up his battleship shots for the turn, too.

What card would you drop for TFA, the coal card? One nice thing about this plan is it helps against Cossacks too.

edit: Not a lot of space to form a defensive line just at Buyniy, perhaps, but there is a coast tile you could buy to extend the range a bit to the NE if necessary.

edit2: Did he hit your capital this turn? That would give us some sense of where the BS are.

[Woden]

Seems not crazy to me. Izumrud he will probably just take back and kill whatever unit you use to take the city, but Buyniy's tiles reach far enough east that you could still make a good line if you only used tiles from that city. And if he retakes Izumrud that does use up his battleship shots for the turn, too.

What card would you drop for TFA, the coal card?

I can block Izumrud with a destroyer and immediately start repairing walls for a city attack next turn. I can probably also move Victor there to help on a few turns. 

As for coal, yes, the coal card. I have a builder ready to repair one of the coals next turn and will repair another in 2 turns. I have at 20 of 24 and have 4 now. Dropping the card will bring me down to 18, so I will have 3 left next turn but will also gain +3 incoming. My oil near Thor is also going to be pillaged but I am hooking up a new source at Fort Miln next turn and have 21 in stockpile. I need 11 right now, so should be good for a bit.

Edit: No attack on capital and no visible ships.

[ljubljana]

Blocking destroyer may just get killed with the city defense fire in addition to his destroyer attacks, but it also might not with better support bonuses and the TFA boost. Idk, interesting question. Also interesting is if we then just block the whole passage between the island and mainland if we go for that. I say yes, but not all the way to avoid giving him stuff to hit from the south that will lack the TFA boost.

One possible issue with this is I don't think you can get all your units to Buyniy this turn, so he will still ravage your northern flank with his destroyers a little bit. But it seems like cleanly the best of the "delay and wait for a CS bonus" plans.

edit: Ok, battleships probably 1-2 tiles behind the visible caravel then. Could be in range of your flank this turn, should he choose to commit them.

edit2: How close is he to a Modern GA? Probably not too close but could be worth checking. I am a bit nervous he will spend 14948293821 gold to get one early which would be a solid move.

[Woden]

Too late for a report but I left the fleet privateer for you to clean up. I needed gold for policy swap, so I pillaged a mine but then realized he probably would move a unit onto the plantation next to the mine, so I opted to pillage it instead of killing the ship. Figure you can handle it.

I set it up the best I could. Place your ships where you see fit. I have 6 turns left on Totalitarianism and see 4 culture pillages I can get in the next 2 turns if all goes well. Might be able to finish it in 3 turns, if I can get them all.