Other stuff

[Charriu]

Finland is more important here, because they have the longer border. If they want to join so will Sweden.
Denying them membership would be repeating a mistake from the past. I know some say it is too risky to attagonize Putin more. But let's face it. If it's not this he would find a different reason for war. In fact with the Russian military occupied in Ukraine there is no better moment to join NATO then now.

[darrelljs]

Correct. And it sends a clear message that naked aggression will make Russia less secure, not more.

Darrell

[Cyneheard]

Finland is more important here, because they have the longer border. If they want to join so will Sweden.
Denying them membership would be repeating a mistake from the past. I know some say it is too risky to attagonize Putin more. But let's face it. If it's not this he would find a different reason for war. In fact with the Russian military occupied in Ukraine there is no better moment to join NATO then now.

Seriously, Putin will bluster but everyone knows he cannot do anything to Finland or Sweden right now.

For MJW's question:

Zelensky has been clearer about not conceding Donbas than conceding Crimea. About as generous a peace deal as he could propose is:
- Crimea either officially given away, or put through some type of referendum process (UN-supervised???)
- Donbas either returned to Ukraine or put through some type of referendum process (see above)
- No NATO, but enough other security guarantees to be "close enough" and still enter the EU
- Getting the Ukrainian civilians back who've been deported to Russia - there's likely hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who've been forcibly deported.

This would still be a massive defeat for Putin - Putin would have less than he had before the war.

[Tarkeel]

All of Scandinavia has a long history of walking a tight balance between first Soviet and now Russia, each with their own take on it. Both Norway and Finland have a history of being occupied by Soviet forces during WW2, but for very different reasons. Northern Norway was liberated by Soviet forces in the waning part of WW2, being the only region where the liberating forces actually left afterwards. Finland was attacked by the Soviets in 1939, and with Germany being the only nation willing to support they were forced into the wrong side of the war. Sweden on the other hand managed to stay neutral during the entire war, trading with all parties depending on the tides of war turned. This disjointed experience is probably one of the major reasons for why the three nations have such different takes on NATO membership.

Norway is one of the founding members of NATO, and was the only memberstate with a land border to Soviet. For most of the cold war (and the time after), the national defence policy has been to "hold out for 24hours and await NATO reinforcements." Finland has focused more on being self-reliant in their defence with a focus on territorial defence. Norway also used to have a very large territorial defence, which has been allowed to wane after the cold war. Sweden has gone for a middle road, where they have not been a NATO member but a very close collaborator in training and intelligence.

All three nations also have to deal with Soviet/Russia in daily life; While Finland has the largest land border, Norway has a shared ocean border with rich resources to administrate. There's also a lot of cross-traffic border in the north, and there's the whole situation of Svalbard. The Swedish littoral waters have been swarming with Soviet/Russian subs.

E: Well, Finland isn't technically Scandinavia, but you get the gist.

[darrelljs]

Minor quibble...Finland isn't the third Scandinavian nation, Denmark is .

Darrell

[Tarkeel]

As a Norwegian you'd think I'd remember that while writing that :P Denmark doesn't have the same history with Soviet/Russia at all though. Fun fact; one thing uniting Norway/Finland/Denmark is their dislike of Sweden. While visiting Finland some years ago, our taxi driver was very wary untill he found out that we were Norwegians and not Swedes, at which point his mood improved and he swapped into Finland-Swedish.

[darrelljs]

I was at a bar where a Dane and a Norwegian were ganging up on a Swede. The theme seemed to be Swedes are robotic conformists .

Darrell

[Jowy]

As a Norwegian you'd think I'd remember that while writing that :P Denmark doesn't have the same history with Soviet/Russia at all though. Fun fact; one thing uniting Norway/Finland/Denmark is their dislike of Sweden. While visiting Finland some years ago, our taxi driver was very wary untill he found out that we were Norwegians and not Swedes, at which point his mood improved and he swapped into Finland-Swedish.

Swedes are the butt of the jokes, but no real hatred there. Just a bit of teasing and friendly rivalry. Don't tell the Swedes I said this.

[Tarkeel]

As a Norwegian you'd think I'd remember that while writing that :P Denmark doesn't have the same history with Soviet/Russia at all though. Fun fact; one thing uniting Norway/Finland/Denmark is their dislike of Sweden. While visiting Finland some years ago, our taxi driver was very wary untill he found out that we were Norwegians and not Swedes, at which point his mood improved and he swapped into Finland-Swedish.

Swedes are the butt of the jokes, but no real hatred there. Just a bit of teasing and friendly rivalry. Don't tell the Swedes I said this.

Exactly. No hatred, just a vague dislike of Swedes in general but usually not individuals.

[darrelljs]

Just read a great article on the pernicious impact of social media…

Darrell