[PB63 Cornflakes] Boudicca hunts crocodiles along the Nile

[Cornflakes]

Oof, Ginger attacked my knight stack with a knight stack (no catapults) and won nearly all the combats. I killed like 5 knights and lost 20. See y'all on the other side

[Cornflakes]

The timing of this attack was really unfortunate. I was commuting an extra hour each way for work last week so I was playing quick turns, and didn't even consider that Ginger might attack. I had my knights near my northwestern border because of MJMD's sniping of the northern cities, 3 tiles from Ginger's culture with vision to where I could see if Catapults were in range, but on the edge of my culture such that Ginger could stage his knights 6 tiles away over roads. Ginger stayed peaceful when Superdeath attacked instead of splitting my territory, and I thought he would be content to tech forward. I was able to inflict some pain in a counter attack and will have a couple turns of reprieve while his stack heals, but will rapidly fold once his knights cuirassiers heal.

Elsewhere in the world Superdeath declared war on Jack recently, Ginger war-peaced Mr. Cairo, and then Mr. Cairo declared war on MJMD and inflicted a not-insignificant hit to MJMD's power.

[Old Harry]

Doesn't sound like a dogpile is on the cards

Do you think that's because of no-score mod, because people aren't playing for the win, because they want to advance their own chances and hope you hold ginger up or because they're just role-playing? (Not implying any of these are bad reasons btw) or something else?

[Cornflakes]

I'll go with "early leader syndrome" ... over estimating the chances of the player who is off to a quick start, rather than judging the rate-of-change of the rate-of-change. Speaking in mathematical terms we have:

• Current ranking - easy to compare based on the demographics. 
  
• Current trajectory - The first derivative of current ranking - can eyeball based on slope of the recent graphs
  
• Future potential - 2nd derivative of the the ranking - hard to judge, takes into account traits/UU/UB as well as neighbors and expansion opportunities
  

See following illustration:

   

• Superdeath was out to a quick lead after conquering Pindicator early. He also has IMP trait for quicker out-of-the-gate start. From there if he does nothing he is on a solid trajectory initially, but rapidly ballooning maintenance costs and a lack of cottage development slow down his progress.
  
• I focus heavily on commerce and thus have the greatest initial trajectory after Superdeath. At point one (1) I pass Superdeath in the rankings having achieved technological superiority and a more advanced military. I convert that military into conquering Fabled, thus securing my current rank above Superdeath. Superdeath's choice is either whack me prior to point (1) and clip my wings before I take off, or play the long game and force me to deal with the rising empires of the world.
  
• I put the red "X" in at the point where Superdeath attacked me. At that my ranking is the highest, and my trajectory (first dirivative) is approximately equal to Ginger's. Superdeath sees this and makes a "save the game" move as a martyr to knock me out of contention, not seeing that Ginger's future potential (2nd dirivative) with Apostolic Palace, MoM, PHI + Pyramids, and top GNP by a large margin. I have the initiative at the moment, but the onus is on me as the game leader to clip Ginger's wings before he surpasses me. If I don't stall Ginger before point two (2) I give up the initiative to Ginger. But I have to slow down Ginger in a way that also doesn't nuke myself. Thus my graph tapers almost flat as I have to clip Ginger (point 2), MJMD (point 3), and Superdeath (point 4) in succession as their empires mature, in order to pull off victory.
  
• Instead of maximizing his own development for the long game, Superdeath knocked me down at the red "X". My ranking took a nosedive (orange shark fin), but Superdeath's ranking also did as well (basically flatlining). Superdeath did not move up in the rankings and in fact accelerated the point where Ginger and MJMD would eventually surpass him, all while eliminating me as the responsible party for controlling Ginger and MJMD's advancement.
  
• The vertical dashed red line is our current position. Ginger is now the game leader. In theory MJMD's development is still ramping up to the point where he can later challenge Ginger. I actually think that before Ginger attacked me his trajectory should be about parallel with MJMD but much higher, and thus MJMD would never be able to catch up in the long game. The open question is whether Ginger blundered in attacking me (will it slow his trajectory enough to give MJMD an opening?) or whether I mis-played so badly in leaving my knight stack exposed that Ginger is able to eat my territory and consolidate it in a reasonable timeframe without getting dogpiled.
  

[Cornflakes]

I attempted to assassinate Ginger's supermedic this turn. Had 65% odds too, but sadly failed the dice roll

   

[DaveV]

A big thumbs up for using calculus in your game analysis!

[Tarkeel]

I really, really appreciate that graph. Kudos.

[Cornflakes]

I don't have enough units remaining to challenge in a stack-vs-stack battle, so I figured that the biggest injury that I could do would be to target the supermedic. It wasn't the top defender this time, but close enough that I was able to knock out enough of the top defenders to give me a shot. Unfortunately this second assassination attempt on Ginger's supermedic fails at 50% odds.

   

[Cornflakes]

I noticed this today

   

It looks like I won't get another shot at the GG medic ... but I'll keep my eye open The noose is tightening though and I will be kicked off the mainland pretty soon. I wonder how long I'll get to live on the Furs island? I have close to 10 longbows/pikes there so it will require a solid stack with catapult support to clear the island.

[Tarkeel]

Technically illegal, but too fun to bother with.

How would you rate Boudica in hindsight for this game?