[PB64] naufragar's bingo parlor for assassins

[naufragar]

SD diplo is usually a lie.

Despite all the games SD has played, he and I have only really interacted twice. The first time, I sucker punched him. The second time, he sucker punched me.  I really do consider him a kindred spirit. But perhaps the times call for a kinder, gentler naufragar:


I ended up pulling back. I sent Commodore 3 messages (which I forgot to screen shot). First, I sent him a clam for clam, intending to signal my own peaceful intentions. Then I sent him mutual copper/horse + all his cities, responding to his own threat. The message should be clear: neither of us is afraid of blood feud. Lastly, I sent him a plain copper+horse for copper+horse, hopefully indicating that if we can work through our troubles, I'm happy to have an ally on one side of the jungle I don't have to fret about. We'll see how he takes it.

I would like it if he played before me next turn so that he sees I moved away. I'm going to found on that sugar tile the stack is currently on, and I want him to understand that it's a concession. I'm giving up so much: I don't take the gems tile, which is the only good city site for dozens of tiles around, and I cede the one tile island to him and I don't have any islands of my own for intercontinental trade routes. I'm making huge concessions and hopefully Comm sees that and doesn't just think I'm still boxing him in. We'll find out. (This is why I hate diplo. After all those concessions, I still might not have improved my position.)

Honestly, a lot of my thinking came down to the scoreboard. Comm and I are so, so far behind the leaders. I need new cities desperately. I'll plant this one as my border with Commodore, and I need to run over to the West to plant a border city with Amica. There's a few spots over there that Amica could use to pink dot me in the face. I hope he doesn't. All my other land is un-irrigated and food poor, otherwise. So much uncertainty.

[naufragar]

Well, in response to me moving my settler away, Comm sent a clam-for-clam. Hopefully the new location of my city doesn't sour things:


This was my solution. I've settled on one sugar and will farm the second quickly for a +5 food surplus. Man, I need more cities. I can only hope Comm and I can live at peace long enough for me to get some sort of economy running.

[naufragar]

Did Commodore pull the wool over my eyes?


Son of a bitch swiped Colossus after being beaten to Metal Casting by a few turns by Ginger's Oracle-fueled push. Good for him. On the other hand, this means that I am firmly in last place. I had thought I had Commodore for company there, but no, he's got a way back into the game.

Nice play, all told. He practically got CtH Financial (my trait) for free. Hmm. Also explains why he was so lusty for the gems spot. (Already has Metal Casting.)

Edit: And he's Philosophical, so I need to double check what a Merchant or Engineer can bulb. Something Guildsy I'm sure.

[naufragar]

Nothing new to report except holy smokes, we rolled the turn in 2 hours. Man, this is a great group.

[naufragar]

The things random maps make us do:


This city itself will be pathetic, but it instantly connects the silver under it and will eventually contribute a furs. Since I had zero pre-Calendar happiness resources, this is a big deal. I hope I can get some time to finally grow my cities off of Pop 3.

Commodore accepted an Open Borders deal. It turns out he has settled somewhere overseas, so he only gets 1 gold from this. I'm grateful for the trade (I'm making something like +6) and I assume this indicates that we've moved past our earlier border disagreements. My border with him is under-defended, so I should beef it up, so as not to cause temptation.

I didn't take a picture of the jungle, but it's very awkward figuring out where to settle on Amica. The only decent spots are very much in his face. Anything back closer to me requires a border pop or has no early hammers to build its own workboat, etc.

So, we've got a few conflicting priorities now: 1) grow bigger cities with the aid of 2 new luxuries 2) produce a reasonable military so Comm doesn't feel tempted 3) Find a way to get a piece of the Western jungle without being hilariously vulnerable to Amica. Current tech path is Math->Calendar. I want Priesthood so bad, but I can't figure out my great people timings. I want a Library-produced Great Scientist in time for an Organized Religion/Hereditary Rule civic swap but I also want to shrine the Jewish holy city. I can't figure out how to do these elegantly. Hmm.

[Mjmd]

I didn't take a picture of the jungle, but it's very awkward figuring out where to settle on Amica. The only decent spots are very much in his face. 

This is a problem because? Weren't you just talking about having a reputation to keep up!  

[naufragar]

Ha! I at least try to be practical! Here's an overview from 5 turns ago:



It's a nightmare trying to settle that western jungle band. If I settle on the X I have no forest to chop into a workboat and can't build a canal fort until Construction. Edit: And it has no first ring food! If I settle back from that X, I give Amica a beautiful spot with irrigated rice and coastal fish. If I push forward and claim that rice/fish spot for myself, I predict he blows a gasket. I need to either give it up or go for it hell for leather, and I just don't have enough units to contest it. If Comm looks peaceful, I might pull some garrisons to try and grab something there. Of course, Amica could beat me to this by a million years, he's building in a straight line towards it, has earlier traits, and has had happiness resources for longer. It's a real mess.  (If I were Amica, I'd want that rice/fish spot ASAP because it can secure gems too.)

[naufragar]

Goddammit. I logged back in to get y'all some pictures of the jungle and look what I found:


You can see Amica's worker in the east, so this is not a scouting axe. This is a settler-guarding axe. F me. You can see how easy it is for Amica to settle this side of the jungle choke. He's got first ring terrestrial food and mining or hunting luxuries. I've got seafood I don't have the hammers to improve and flat jungle. Damn me, this is annoying. I'm coming around more and more to Commodore's warning that Amica is in the driver's seat for this game. Not sure what I can go about it. I'm about to be bottled up in this tiny little area.

[naufragar]

Well, I found another Amica city:


Just disgusting. 3 pre-Calednar luxuries (2 unique) with a first ring, irrigated food resource and double rivers. Just obscene.

For reference, here's our expansion area:


Notice any differences? 

Not only is the local quality of Amica's expansions much, much better, he is carving out an absolutely massive share of the globe for himself.


Look at that! I'll be nibbling around the edges of tundra while Amica drives straight between Gavagai and me. I wanted to tell Ginger to stop trading with Amica, since, you know, Ginger is boosting the Protective Great Lighthouse builder.  But from the tech thread it looks like Ginger's war is almost over. I'll resend after that if he's feeling less pressure. Serves me right for doubting Commodore. Amica is easily winning right now.

So it's time to resurrect this graph from my PB59 thread.


This graph is a quick and dirty approximation of various leaders' powers over the course of the game. My point then and my point now is that each leader has a point at which they are theoretically stronger than others. Of course, this assumes balanced land, not a random map like we've got. The question is the same though: am I going to out-scale Amica's growth and should therefore play a long game? Or is he going to outgrow me and I therefore need to hinder him ASAP? The truth is, I'm not sure. Fin/Org is really strong over the long hall, but Amica's going to have just so much land of such higher quality, buoyed by the Great Lighthouse with another players unwilling to boycott him. I'm really not sure.

A lot will depend on if he is will to give up that jungle pass. If he pushes me here after already dominating the main of the continent, I'll have to fight him. Somehow.  He doesn't know how pinned I am since I didn't let his scouting warrior in. Speaking of which, do I kill it?


The timing is horrible: this warrior is going to see my settler and follow him in. This mean Amica could whip a settler + units and invalidate any decent jungle plant for me before I get there. But if I kill him, I solidify my reputation in Amica's eyes as a bit of a viper.

We're going to be playing by ear for a while. Let's see where the game goes.

[naufragar]

Someone talk me out of a brash war dec:


This spot is closer to Amica than me, definitely (made worse by the inland sea in between us). But if he gets this, I'm pushed against a jungle with nothing but bare grassland and a coupe of clams, while he gets massive swaths of the continent.

To make matters worse, I'm not set up to kill his nearby warrior effectively. I can attack it with a spear, but I only get 78% odds, and I lose those every time. I'm tempted to declare war, attack the warrior (note I don't say kill) and demand some combination of resources for him to not found the spot. Would that deter him? It wouldn't deter me. That spot's way too good for him to give up.

Last post, I mentioned that Ginger was trading with Amica. I meant Gavagai. I tried to get Gavagai to stop, but the "stop trading with" option didn't appear. Why is that? I asked him to declare war to break the routes. This turn, he told me to declare the war instead. I just might. F me. Do I let him box me in? Do I take responsibility for stopping the leader? (Gav did honorable work against Ginger and is now eating Superdeath too? More power to him.