[PB64] naufragar's bingo parlor for assassins

[naufragar]

Someone talk me out of a brash war dec

Y'all weren't fast enough.

[naufragar]

PBSpy tells me I spend about 45 minutes on this turn.


I'll tell you my thought-process, but first a little background:

I consider myself a chalice of peace, but I counted up my games played. I've played in PBs 38, 41, 45, 54, 59, 62, Civforum '88, and this one, PB64. In exactly two of those, I didn't attack someone before catapults. In PB 41, I was on my own island, and in PB54 I was chariot-rushed. I know this about myself. I know that when I'm thinking about my course of action, I need to say, "now listen naufragar. Are you sure you should attack? You're internal aggression meter is stuck at 11." So I promise I did think (or at least I think I thought) about whether or not to attack, and it really was close.

The question is always, how do I win? Here's the Big Picture:



How do I win? I don't know how Gav is going to affect things. I do know that Amica has an entire continent to expand into. Excuse me, has expanded into, and I've got nothing but the edges of an inner sea and a tundra wasteland. I could hear the better lurkers of my nature whispering on my shoulder: "Look. There are still spots to settle. You don't have to fight." Ok. There are still spots to settle. Does this make me win? It's the classic "in 25 turns my position will be so great!" while neglecting that your opponents also get 25 turns to improve. Amica is about to be on 8 cities, with more luxuries and way more food than me. He is Protective and has the Great Lighthouse. In what time frame does my Fin/Org catch up? Does it ever? Is there ever a point in this game where I, with the land I'm destined to get, am in a winning position compared to Amica with the land he's destined to get? That answer is a very obvious "no." So while there are easy ways of improving my position, I'm not convinced that any of them are ways to victory.

So what in the world are we going to do? Well, when you're down, high variance plays are better. Amica has more soldiers, cities, food&hammers. Basically more everything. I need to find some way to get a lucky disruption, to slow Amica down so that another of his neighbors can start threatening him. There's pretty much no shot I myself can take any of his cities. I'm not even sure I really push for them. (The bigger question is, where does the settler that I produced this turn go? I started sending him north, but as of now there's nothing for him there. PBSpy tells me Amica did found his city.)

The plan, such as it is, is to push some units around the map and see if anything breaks. Hopefully not me.

[naufragar]

Amica was able to get an appropriate defender into his city in time. Pity.


I say "in time" because it has no fortification bonus. Look at that road. Do we think there's another Amica city down this way by the stone or does this city have yet another resource tile? (Or both?)

This city is 9 tiles away from Amica's cap but already has 60 hammers of infrastructure. The spots nine tiles away from my cap are ocean (to the east), ocean (to the north), ocean (to the south), and peaks separated by ocean (to the west). Nuts.

Oh, and Ginger started trading with Amica. So that makes both Ginger and Gav.

[Mjmd]

I mean to be fair you didn't give lurkers any time to respond. Especially with the really quick turns you guys do.

Also to be fair lurkers only can give one answer:

[Magic Science]

I could hear the better lurkers of my nature whispering on my shoulder: "Look. There are still spots to settle. You don't have to fight." 

It disturbs me to imagine a person who has a lurker instead of an angel on their shoulder to provide them moral advice.

Anyways, as a lurker,  ,  ,  , etc.

[naufragar]

Anyways, as a lurker,  ,  ,  , etc.

Honestly, I thought for a while about offering Amica peace:


He has a worker under both spears, so he's preparing to road from the wheat city to the jungle one. Those jungled hills by the peaks he can defend basically without breaking a sweat. No matter how many vultures I bring, I would not be able to crack a couple axes on those tiles. The alternative, walk all the way south around the peaks, is just silly.

The more I look at this position the angrier it makes me. (Note that there is an invisible fish 2E of the rice.) I have the option of either cedeing him that dyes/spices spot or taking it myself with no way to get a workboat, no forests to chop, nothing. God, this position is so lopsided.

If Amica places axes on those jungle hills, I think I'll offer peace and settle by the clams. We just have to hope he doesn't. Can I afford peace? Ack, I don't know. There's just no way Amica doesn't win from his position without disruption and the only other possible disruptive force (Gavagai) has instead decided to trade with (Great Lighthouse-having) Amica.

[naufragar]

Better angels won out. Offered Amica a ceasefire. Damn me, I hate this feeling of helplessness. I look at the map and think "Wow, Amica has green backlines and forays into a continent that I am unable and Gav is unwilling to challenge." My position is hopeless lost. On turn 88! And I can't do anything to alter that. Rotten feeling. I'll use the peace to plant cities and tech to Construction. We'll see what happens then.

[naufragar]

Well, gosh, isn't this just so surprising. I mean who could've foreseen this and who can foresee where it'll lead? 




Commodore offered me a clam for clam, and I thought that was because I've now got 40% more power than him.


Comm, you and I can't attack each other until Astro. And were I to attack you, I'd have to slow march down the continent to pick up the saddest scraps of territory. You're ok for now, guy. (Then it occurred to me that while moving to improve his gems, he might've seen Vignere empty and thought I'd be worried about his sentry warrior. At this stage of the game, not the sort of thing that's going to perturb me.)

[naufragar]

Amica has a warrior on the hill 1E of the banana in this picture, so he's watching this barb city. The question is do I kill it immediately or greedily wait for it to grow?


It's visible in a screenshot I've got from t89, so it could take as long as t99 to grow to a second pop. I think I'll wait for it to grow and just kill it if Amica sends forces to contest.

Speaking of which, I'm back to second to last in soldiers. Someone has had Mathematics forever and Amica just got a tech. Do I think this was Construction? No idea. We have to prepare for the worst. I've asked Gav to stop trading with Amica. I don't have the option yet with Ginger. But Ginger might be hesitant anyway since both he and Amica border Gav. Gav, at least, should realize that it's not in his best interest to pump the game-leading Great Lighthouse-owner with free trade.

[naufragar]

But in all honest, a Protective crossbow on turn 93 is quite a technological terror. That's very impressive.

The more I see of other player's lands, the more I feel like a front runner and should play more like one, even if I'm neighboring the game winner, who's in an even better spot than I.